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Packrat1987

Packrat1987
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  • Dell: Take The Premium And Run [View article]
    March 22nd is deadline for go-shop clause. This could drag on for at most 2 months before we get some kind of share price reaction i would imagine. There is going to be a proxy vote, that might take a couple weeks to wrap up and then we will know an outcome, if icahn's plan is accepted or not. The $13.65 offer will not be accepted, not enough votes already. We may get a bidder between now and the end of the week or an improved bid.
    Mar 18 02:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dell: Take The Premium And Run [View article]
    Are you implying that Michael Dell is about to do something illegal to manipulate the share price more than he may or may not be already doing? Somehow I don't think Michael wants to go to jail, either way, icahn is going to do what icahn wants and he doesnt want to lose money on this. Either raise the bid or let icahn recap the company. Michael and his cronies need to figure out which they will do, because anything less and icahn already has threatened years of litigation if his idea is not put on the proxy.
    Mar 18 01:56 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dell: Take The Premium And Run [View article]
    Yep delusional, must be. Definitely delusional.. Icahn must be delusional too for buying up over 8% of the common and counting at prices above $13.65. We must all be delusional. I appreciate the bear case for DELL, but you fail to realize that michael DELL doesn't want to see his company on the chopping block and they need to increase the bid. My belief is we will see a $17 bid. If it doesn't happen.. thats okay, because i bought calls.. not the stock.. so my loss is limited to the premium.also, icahn is going to get his plan on the proxy too, so people can vote for it.. if it passes $22 is possible.. michael doesnt want that to happen so he will up the bid with his buddies.
    Mar 18 01:38 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dell: Take The Premium And Run [View article]
    icahn is going to get some folks on the board, they already have enough votes to stop the buyout at $13.65, there is no way its going through at $13.65. Michael needs to up the bid to $16-$19 to get this deal through. The IRR to these new buyers is north of 20%, even at $15. So... to get icahn out of the picture and muster enough votes they will have to increase the bid. Forget $13.65, there is a stub price of $13.81 and a special $9 dividend if icahn pulls his plan through. That's a 67% premium to the $13.65 offer. Good enough for me.
    Mar 18 01:18 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dell: Take The Premium And Run [View article]
    Yeah, dell sucks so bad that Michael dell wants to buy it. yeah, its impossible to turn dell around right? Yeah, because all the activist investors would let it fall to $8-$10 without buying up the company and selling it for pieces? ya okay... sure.. sure... Michael would love to scare investors into selling at $13.65, what a joke. You can make a special dividend out of this of $10 a share!!! If it falls below $10 I am buying more calls, I just went long $14 calls on Dell today. 50 contracts.
    Mar 18 12:58 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Mortgage REIT Preferreds To Consider, Part I: Apollo Residential [View article]
    Rso-b is better and yields more ... Plus it trades below par.
    Feb 27 05:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More on CYS Investments (CYS) Q4 earnings: Net asset value of $13.31/share falls from $14.46 in Q3, thanks to $0.52 special dividend and sliding RMBS prices. Company had a GAAP loss of $0.24/share thanks to the drop in RMBS prices. Net interest spread declines to 1.08% from 1.41%. 15-year fixed agency MBS continues to make up more than 50% of holdings. (PR[View news story]
    I'm not a fan of cys at these prices. $11/share seems like fair value given the declines in net interest margin.
    Feb 6 06:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Game Of Find The Ponzi - Tilson's Next Short [View article]
    Gringo, you're an idiot lol. No one with a brain would short mortgage reits. It's far too risky. They can do a number of things to protect their capital and continue to produce solid returns throughout the interest rate and prepayment cycles.
    Jan 31 01:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Mortgage (MTGE) - the hybrid mortgage REIT brother of American Capital Agency (AGNC) - maintains its quarterly dividend at $0.90. (AGNC earlier). MTGE +0.7%, AGNC +2.3% AH. (PR[View news story]
    Best of breed. What more is there to say?
    Dec 14 06:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will American Capital Agency Turn Bullish Soon? [View article]
    I do not see it that way. Ex is going to be after opex like previous years I think. That is how put options are priced as well.
    Dec 12 01:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 7% Month Return With CYS Investments Catalysts [View article]
    Date of record is December 21. Ex dividend is 3 days prior. You will be put the stock most likely at 13 while the common will trade near 12 based on opex being December 22. Ouch! That assumes the stock doesn't move from here.
    Dec 11 09:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • CYS Investments (CYS) declares $0.40/share quarterly dividend. For shareholders of record Dec. 21. Payable Dec. 28. Ex-div date Dec. 19. Additionally, the board declares special dividend of $0.52/share payable with regular dividend. Shares +1.5% AH. (PR[View news story]
    Gross. Dividend cut again even though net interest margins should have improved. Special dividend is just a return of book value, which is much lower today then in September due to the mbs sell off. Enjoy your new tax bill to come if you hold these shares. Taxes on a return from book value.
    Dec 10 05:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 7% Month Return With CYS Investments Catalysts [View article]
    Thank you for the article. I was hoping it would get enough hits to maybe help support the share price. I sold my last 20,000 shares of CYS this morning at $13.00. I am so glad to be out. I used the proceeds of exiting my CYS position, all 45,000 shares I had owned I sold over the last 2 days. $12.88 X 25000, and $13.00 X 20000... to sell the MTGE $25 dec puts for 0.55. MTGE is best of breed. CYS, the ceo, they don't seem to me to know what they are talking about. They apparently had to be convinced that the buying back of shares was even worth it. On the conference call the CEO was way wrong about even that issue. He said buying back shares would not make sense unless the share price was at a 50% discount or greater. He said it had to do with the ROE over say a 5 year time period and that that ROE would be better then repurchases. WELL HELLO, buying back shares below book increases the NAV and it increases the EPS by leveraging the remaining shares. Less shares = more gains or losses on capital and more earnings to be distributed among less shares. CYS also does not have anywhere near the amount of hedges that MTGE and AGNC have. The lack of hedges has caused material change negatively to the value of their assets. The new NAV is probably closer to $13.30 if you factor out the 0.45 dividend I expect them to declare. For this reason, i highly recommend anyone owning shares to consider selling them immediately and reinvesting the proceeds into mtge by selling the $25 dec put contracts that expire before MTGE goes ex-dividend. (based on all historical data the ex is always after OPEX)
    Dec 10 11:17 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Big Dividend-Paying Mortgage REITs, Such As 14.05% CYS Investments, Are Still Good Buys [View article]
    Drop income happened because cys sold over 5 billion worth of mortgages and used a forward purchase agreement to buy different mortgages with better prepay characteristics cheaper. The discount for the new mortgages was referred to as drop income. So really drop and core are about the same. Drop just means forgoing interest payments and purchase until a later date in exchange for a cheaper price. Core will be at least 0.40 for December quarter but they still has January settles so there will be some drop income. They should have no problem covering the 0.45 dividend based on net interest margins today.
    Dec 9 11:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prepayment Risk And Fed Spending Aren't The Only Worries For REIT Investors [View article]
    The Feds effect so far has done nothing. In fact rates are going up and mbs is selling off. The fed shot its last bullet and mbs prices will likely keep falling unless we go into recession next year. Wider spreads lower book values
    Dec 8 07:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
66 Comments
54 Likes