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nightfly

nightfly
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  • Reversal Of Fortune For The Markets Ahead? [View article]
    I would always rather a target take me out than a stop! But you certainly are not alone on the losers run, out early on winners.

    I too have seen my trading performance increase dramatically since having and using targets and scaling in/out.

    Good luck to you.

    UVXY is perhaps a better play than VXX, which tends to lose money for all investors, long and shorts.
    May 22 05:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The S&P 500 Enters A Post-Transition Period [View article]
    I think the only thing, currently, that matters, is the Fed. Regardless of actual "real" impact, the commonly held perception that the Fed is supporting the market matters.

    Just look at the market reaction to ALL of the previous wind-downs...and you'll see why there was a QE2, QE3, Twist, etc. and now QE4ever.

    Once that is reduced or ever ended, market will slowly tank along with it.

    Markets and the world is addicted to easy cheap money.
    May 20 08:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • There is no precedent for the current market, writes The Fat Pitch. Consider: 1) The S&P (SPY) has been up 56 of 88 trading sessions this year 2) It's up an uncorrected 24% since the post-election low - the longest streak in over 3 decades 3) The Nasdaq (QQQ) is on pace for a 7th straight up month, an occurrence with a 3-in-100 probability. Long term it's bullish, writes Ukarlewitz, as this sort of strength is rarely the end of a trend. Short term? Stay nimble. [View news story]
    Lack of selling is probably due to a lack of buyers over the past month. However, I think that problem is being taken care of, and the hedgies and fund managers are now able to sell into some buying volume.
    May 19 04:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks Ignore Still Weak Economy [View article]
    And lack of any "significant" trigger to change the trend. Just like in the 09 drop, it just keep going down, until, it didn't. (QE 1 rumored/started).
    May 15 07:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CNBC's Jim Cramer says he's witnessing something in the market he hasn't seen in all his 34 years of investing - something that tells him this bull market is more powerful than any we've ever experienced. First, investors aren't taking profits after good news, which is usually the norm. Second, stocks aren't re-tracing to fill in any gaps after popping on good news, they just keep going higher. Lastly, even on bad news, stocks are roaring even higher. This is a "surrealist moment," Cramer says. Managers who have been taught never to chase stocks are getting killed. This is bull is "crushing even the most skilled of matadors." (Video[View news story]
    Cramer == irrelevant.

    He's an entertainer now after all...
    May 13 09:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • For those still keeping score, Tesla (TSLA) added another 14.38% to last week's post-earnings bonanza , bringing the three-day total percentage change to +57%. Amusingly, the rally didn't let up AH either, as the stock tacked on an additional 2.51%, hitting $90 just before 8 p.m. [View news story]
    Go Iomega! Oops, sorry, wrong decade/stock.
    May 13 09:47 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NYSE margin debt hit $379.5B in March, a 28% Y/Y increase as investors borrow money to buy into what has become a famously resilient rally. Borrowing to buy shares is of course one sign of unbridled optimism, although some believe levering up makes sense in the current environment. The last time margin debt hit $380B: July 2007, the same month S&P and Moody's marked the beginning of the crisis by downgrading hundreds of RMBS. [View news story]
    Exactly, trust big Ben, he'll bail you out: but only up ~2-3 billion per day. And each QE has worked so wonderfully...that's why we have QE4ver!
    May 10 01:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "Our enthusiasm is clearly a notch below where we were at the beginning of the year," write Credit Suisse analysts, starting to see a bit of froth creep into small caps.  At 16.4x earnings, the Russell 2000 (IWM) "has admittedly lost its valuation appeal." For now, they're buyers on dips, but should the index near the 1,000 level, valuation pressure will really start to be felt. [View news story]
    Agreed, earnings seem to be on the downtrend, not up, not steady.
    May 9 07:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Angie's List Is A Sell Or A Short Right Here [View article]
    3 strikes for Jan 15 open. That report from Citron is an eye-opener - I had no idea ANGI was that bad. Amazing!

    This is good example of a stock that should be shorted relentlessly to help "out" it.
    May 9 07:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apparently behind the mid-afternoon drop in the S&P 500 (SPY) (a not insignificant 10 points), the soaring dollar (UUP), and sinking commodities (GLD, USO) was the rumor of a Jon Hilsenrath article set to hit the WSJ claiming "tapering" of asset purchases is coming sooner rather than later. Thus far, nothing is up. [View news story]
    At a minimum, ending of QE means rising interest rates. When you remove the buyer of 65% of the 7+yr bonds- it's gonna have an impact.

    Cheap cars and houses are going to be impacted by rising rates, arguably the primary recipients and drivers of the recent uptick in those markets.

    Tapering QE into a global economic downturn! That that would just be like the Fed! Always wrong Ben!
    May 9 07:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • MBA Mortgage Applications: +7.0% vs. +1.8% last week. [View news story]
    Yes, I recently read that banks have "loosened" lending standards. Gotta get them people into those homes!

    The only thing the Fed is good at doing is creating bubbles and now they are popping up everywhere...
    May 8 01:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Yahoo A Rising Phoenix? [View article]
    "dead cat bounce" defined.
    May 8 01:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Today's jobs report helped juice copper (JJC) prices, which soared 6.8% to stage their biggest single-day gain in 18 months. But copper is still ~10% lower YTD, and perma-bear Al Edwards continues to trust in its ability to serve as an economic indicator. The metal is giving "an early warning that liquidity will not save risk assets: it's time to get out of equities," he warns. [View news story]
    Definitely a little short squeeze there. No fundamental demand for commodities and the broad and persistent selling...
    May 3 06:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • April Nonfarm Payrolls: +165K vs. consensus +145K, 138K previous (revised from +88K). Unemployment rate 7.5% vs. consensus 7.6%, 7.6% previous. [View news story]
    Explicity, that is certainly the case; however, the "power of the Bernak Put", etc. has and continues to have its power.

    And if you don't think this rally is liquidity driven, not only by the US Fed but buy the FX carry, JPY, and EU cheap money regimes, well, I will not be able to convince you that you have a nose on your face.

    Earning are and have been continuing to trend down since '11. You would think that would matter to the market, but here we are are all time new highs.
    May 3 11:46 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "Enough already!" There's a lot more to this bull market than the Fed's liquidity hose, says Citi's Tobias Levkovich, reminding earnings have risen right alongside stock prices, but what hasn't gone up are valuations. Capital spending, housing, consumer spending, and employment may not all be where we'd like them to be, but all have improved materially. "Ignoring economic facts to make a liquidity point just does not seem to make a whole lot of sense," he writes, advising to buy any equity wobbles should the Fed signal an easing back on the accelerator. [View news story]
    I think you under-estimate the potential swans out there and over-estimate the possible reaction to them.

    The 09 "liquidity bull market" was just that - cheap money. What has doubling-down with QE4ever done?

    Most CBs are all-in already. Nothing left to shoot.
    May 1 01:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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