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nightfly

nightfly
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  • Why Angie's List Is A Sell Or A Short Right Here [View article]
    Ah, Angie should be worried. Their "business model" of sticking it to everyone is under attack:

    HomeAdvisor.com

    a site doing the same thing, but free. Ads are now appearing during the NBA playoffs.
    Apr 30 01:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Angie's List Is A Sell Or A Short Right Here [View article]
    You have to keep in mind that in this market, crap floats too. Look at the options, pretty thin and somewhat wide.

    It's not a heavily traded stock which makes it a ripe short squeeze target.

    I've been waiting since the year's end for put a short on and I agree with the author, a secondary is coming soon.

    I don't think anyone believes in the longer term story for this company.

    Maybe sell some short dated put spreads and some longer term call spreads to help pay for a longer term put spread.

    I will probably wait until options open up for 2014 before opening a position.
    Apr 26 12:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • GM Is A Bargain: The Growth Drivers [View article]
    I laugh when someone mentions GM (or Chrysler for that matter) are "..now making better cars...".

    Like going bankrupt and getting bailed out automagically results in better products!

    If so, it should have happened 20 years ago...
    Apr 23 07:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tim Cook (AAPL) on the five-inch smartphone: "Our competitors have made some significant trade-offs in many of these areas in order to ship a larger display. We would not ship a larger display iPhone while these trade-offs exist." He adds that if IDC's right, the smartphone market declined 30% since December, so Apple's decline of 15% beat the market. [View news story]
    Solid business model: don't give people want they want; give them want you're willing to make.

    AAPL to ~300 by years end...
    Apr 23 07:50 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors are lapping up SeaWorld's (SEAS) IPO. After pricing its 26M-share offering at $27 (the high end of its range), shares opened at $30.56 and are now at $30.90, up 14.4%. That gives the aquatic park owner a market cap of $2.86B. 10M new shares were issued, and 16M were sold by P-E owner Blackstone. SeaWorld posted 2012 revenue of $1.42B (+7% Y/Y), and net income of $77.4M. The company had $1.82B in debt on its balance sheet, and just $45.7M in cash, at the end of 2012. (prospectus[View news story]
    Just continuing the lastest trend of IPOs designed to "cash out" the current holders and unload the shares on unsuspecting investors thinking they are buying the hot IPO.

    My guess is that it'll be trading under $20 by sometime in May.
    Apr 19 02:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's What Happened The Last Time The Fed Owned All Outstanding Treasuries [View article]
    I tend to agree. The FED may never let up; maybe because they won't be able to...
    Apr 4 07:05 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Android Is Dead - Part 8: The S4 Fights Back - BUT... [View article]
    The only thing I am waiting for is for HP to buy RIMM and then a few months later, shutdown the entire unit.

    RIMM is dead, its just not buried yet - but should be in the ground by years's end.
    Mar 30 03:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Live from New York, it's the Samsung (SSNLF.PK) Galaxy S IV. Mobile chief JK Shin has unveiled Samsung's new flagship device, which happens to look a lot like its predecessor. The S IV, said to support every 4G LTE band, will go on sale in late April (U.S. availability might take longer). The expected 5" 1080p display and 13MP camera are there, the next-gen 802.11ac Wi-Fi standard is supported (could be a positive for BRCM), and infrared, temperature, and humidity sensors are thrown in. A variety of camera tricks/gimmicks are provided, including the ability to simultaneously record video from both cameras. (live blog) (previous[View news story]
    .2" larger and will hardly be noticed - although I tend to agree on sizes of phones. I want them to comfortably fit in my pocket.
    Mar 14 08:26 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More on H&R Block (HRB): FQ3 misses on all counts as total sales declined by 29% Y/Y. Net losses also widened as a delay to the start of the U.S. tax season negatively impacted its top line. Even so, the company only deferred $15M of revenue into FQ4, which doesn't even come close to mitigating its $91.6M shortfall for the current quarter. Gross margin also narrowed to 20% from 31.4%, due to the revenue decrease. Despite the miss, optimism over a potential pickup in U.S. tax volume has the stock +3.3% AH. [View news story]
    wow, this market needs a substantial pullback to put some reality back in stock prices/expectations.

    This one is going on my "to short" list..
    Mar 7 07:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Home Prices Surged 9.7% In January, The Highest Annual Increase In Almost 7 Years [View article]
    That must be based on asking prices as actual sales prices are flat to marginally higher.
    Mar 6 11:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Michigan Governor Rick Snyder declared Detroit to be in a state of emergency on Friday and said he would appoint an outside manager to help turn around its dire finances, which include $14B in long-term liabilities. City officials have ten days to persuade Snyder to change his mind. Should he uphold his decision, it would be the latest step in attempts to prevent Detroit filing what would be the biggest municipal bankruptcy in U.S. history. [View news story]
    $14B, that's barely 1 week's worth of POMO. Ben just needs to take his helicopter west for a week on vacation. Problem solved!

    Ben has come up with the perfect solution to all problems! Transfer of all risk and debt to the public! Winning!
    Mar 3 12:04 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • TLT: Moving Toward A Possible Trading Buy As Commodity Deflation May Loom [View article]
    Be wary of being long the long bond for anything other than riding the storm out.

    At a minimum there will be ongoing pressure from current holders to get out before the Fed manipulations decrease and/or end (if they ever can).

    115 of the TLT seems to be the current support and we are range bound between roughly that and 117, a breach of 115 will not bring joy to any bond holders face...
    Feb 22 07:59 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sorry Bears, We're In A Secular Bull Market [View article]
    If earning can continue at the current or better pace, your argument has merit.

    Based on the last two quarters, the earning (of the SP500) have been trending down; not sideways not up, down.

    Where will the earnings growth come from?

    You make three assertions: EU will save us; or housing will "continue" to grow; and lastly Japan will save us. I am surprised you didn't add in China and/or the "domestic energy" boom as upside catalysts (or India for good measure).

    I will leave the plausibility of any one of these coming true to the reader.

    I would rather we save US, but that will not likely happen either.

    headwinds:
    - inflation
    - stagnant and/or lowered wages.
    - stagnant or deteriorting employment.
    - QE continuing and ending
    - rising interest rates (and their affect upon housing and other things such as autos).
    - baby boomers cashing out...
    Feb 22 07:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More on H-P's FQ1: FY13 guidance is unchanged, but the Street might believe it now. PC sales -8% Y/Y, better than FQ4's -14%. Printing -5% (even with FQ4) - consumer hardware -13%, commercial -6%. Enterprise hardware -4% (-9% prior) - high-end servers -24%, x86 servers -3%, storage -13%, networking +4%. Services -7% (-6% prior), op. margin just 1.3%. Software -2%, license revenue -16%. R&D -13% Q/Q to just $794M (2.7% of revenue), SG&A up slightly. $253M worth of buybacks. HPQ +6.4% AH. CC at 5PM ET (webcast). (PR[View news story]
    A good short @ anything near 18..
    Feb 21 09:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dear Chairman Bernanke... [View article]
    I believe a crisis of confidence will bring down the house of cards. However, this may not happen in my life-time (mid-40's).

    How will it end otherwise? Run-away inflation (see 2008) or what?
    Feb 15 05:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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