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nightfly

nightfly
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  • Why The Latest Report On Gold Demand Trends Matters [View article]
    Yes, manipulation is now SOP. Just look at the favored Fed asset classes (equities and bonds) vs the un-favored (precious metals and oil/commodities). Commodities can cause issues with the Fed's plans and I believe that they are thus being pushed down.

    But they can only do so much, oil at least has had an ok run in Jan, but commodities in general, including Dr. Copper are lagging big time. If true sustainable growth was out there, the basic materials would be making new highs as well.
    Feb 15, 2013. 12:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Coming Decade Of Stocks, Part 2 [View article]
    This article belongs over on CNBC or Marketwatch - perfect the unwashed masses: short on facts, long on opinion.

    Don't want to miss out do ya folks?!
    Feb 12, 2013. 09:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Hedge fund guru Jim Rogers has made no secret of what he thinks of the Fed's monetary stimulus. It's "outrageous," he says. Now he's putting his money where his mouth is, saying that he's begun shorting U.S. government debt. "It's all artificial," Rogers quips. "The Federal Reserve is printing money as fast as they can. The Bank of Japan said 'we're going to print unlimited money.'" - If he's right, that bet could pay off big. [View news story]
    Anything the govt manipulates will fail, horribly, eventually. It always does.
    Feb 7, 2013. 08:19 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Commodity Chart Of The Day: Japanese Yen [View article]
    "Risk Off" means the YEN gets bought, not sold...

    This whole move has been predicated on BOJ interventions - non of which have happened. Like in the past, even once the interventions occurred, they were front-run and then the YEN returned to its long term trend.

    Since nothing has come changed anything in regards to the YEN I would expect the trend to return to the its longer term trend eventually.

    It's amazing how much various govt officials across the globe are jaw-boning markets, which some effective without any subsequent action...see Draghi, Abe, et.al.
    Jan 25, 2013. 02:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Risk Of 'Double-Rip' On The Rise [View article]
    Thanks to all for this cordial discussion on this topic. I too think there is more upside to the market, regardless of current price and valuations - however, at the same time, I think the 09 Bull market will make its highs this year as well.

    What I don't get is that no one seems to be concerned of all the government interventions and their unintended consequences - which are unprecedented world-wide and the impact of these both longer term and medium term as they are slowed or stopped. I mean what facilitated the recent collapses? Easy money. What do we have now? Even more easy money.

    So basically everyone thinks the FED will get it right this time? Or maybe, just keep the cheap money game going until they can't. What's the end-game? Does anyone honestly think that all the central planners will fix everything up just nice and tidy?
    Jan 21, 2013. 01:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mean-Reversion Portends Explosive Homebuilder Spring [View article]
    I just don't buy it - sorry. It's a crowded trade with rich values and limited upside.

    If the market does well, bond yields will increase driving up borrowing costs.

    If inflation rises, and it will eventually do so (officially i.e., unofficially it's up 4.7 since 2011), bond yields will go up.

    Credit is still tight, you gotta get a conforming loan.

    Something like 30-40% of all home-owners are underwater on their homes and that will provide overhead supply once and if prices get to some sort of break-even.

    There's simply a limited supply of organic buyers due to a multitude of reasons.

    Lastly and the only link I'll provide that helps show how much of a bubble the housing sector is in (assets i.e., not home values): http://bit.ly/WLOqDv
    Jan 18, 2013. 12:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mean-Reversion Portends Explosive Homebuilder Spring [View article]
    Sure, I'd would argue that they have to keep rates low forever as any rise can and will cause economic turmoil. Money has been cheap for well over a decade now relative to historical averages.

    I just don't think any builder is a long term investment hold, and currently, stocks like LEN have weekly charts similar to other bubble stocks like Silver and AAPL i.e. virtually straight up since 10/2011.
    Jan 17, 2013. 02:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mean-Reversion Portends Explosive Homebuilder Spring [View article]
    1) Buying is dominated by investors.
    2) A lot of new construction is focused on multi-family.
    3) Yes there is a ton of shadow inventory, but banks now as much time as they want to dump them This could be sped up if reserves were required to be increased.
    4) Real incomes are stagnant at best and trending down.
    5) Jobs - which the participation rate continuing to drop, who's doing the buying (see #1 above).

    The whole enchilada hinges on low rates. I would argue once they get to 5% and above for a 30yr, that will put a drag on housing after an initial surge from those trying to get in.

    Lastly, I don't trust any asset (now virtually everything) that our government is manipulating in order to achieve some political goal - the path is fraught with unintended consequences and eventually always fails.
    Jan 17, 2013. 01:15 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intermarket Outlook; Last Leg Up In 2009 Bull Market [View article]
    I think the only hole in your argument (for a final leg up) is that earning are already decreasing - it'll be hard, not impossible to justify much higher prices. See this SA article for a good coverage on the topic: http://seekingalpha.co...

    In the summer I read a number of articles that discussed the turning of the business cycle. At that time, the when couldn't be predicted. But with the Q4 of 2012 in, it looks like it has turned/ended and earnings growth will continue to diminish/drop taking valuations with them.

    Only if this is wrong would I agree that there's a final blow-off top - we may actually be putting in a top now...
    Jan 16, 2013. 02:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 7 Bullish Signs For Wall Street [View article]
    I would suggest a more factual reference than just opinion, like this piece on SA: http://seekingalpha.co...
    Jan 16, 2013. 02:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has A New China Bull Market Begun? [View article]
    Looks like a dead-cat bounce to me.
    Jan 16, 2013. 02:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple (AAPL) has cut iPhone 5 component orders for calendar Q1 due to weaker-than-expected demand, sources tell the WSJ; display orders are said to be cut by ~50%. The Nikkei also claims display orders have been halved, albeit from an elevated level of 65M. The articles back up analyst reports of iPhone production and component order cuts, and raise the question of whether Apple needs a cheaper iPhone and/or one with a larger display to bolster its international share. Suppliers on watch: LPL, CRUS, OVTI, QCOM, BRCM, SWKS, TQNT, AVGO[View news story]
    I'll believe in what ever the price tells me and the price trend - neither look very promising for longs here.
    Jan 14, 2013. 12:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More on Existing Home Sales: Sales +5.9% M/M (seasonally adjusted) and 14.5% Y/Y. Median price +10.1% Y/Y. Distressed sales accounted for 22% of total vs. 29% a year ago. Inventory fell 3.8% M/M to 2.03M homes, a 4.8 month supply - the lowest level since September 2005. Median time on market is 70 days, down from 98 a year ago. (full report[View news story]
    Just another asset class being manipulated in order for those "holding" to get out with the maximum gain. See "stocks" for an example.
    Dec 20, 2012. 06:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Financials add to the regular session's big gains as Meredeth Whitney gets bullish on the sector, particularly Bank of America, Citigroup, and Discover. The catalyst for the group will be the March release of the Fed's stress tests showing them adequately capitalized, paving the way for more share repurchases and dividend bumps. BAC +2.1%, C +0.5%, DFS +2.3%, XLF +0.4% AH. [View news story]
    wow, she couldn't be more wrong: http://bloom.bg/U5zdzN
    Dec 18, 2012. 12:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yen bears have plenty of reasons on their side (the latest), but contrary opinion isn't one of them. Net short positions on the yen - as reported by the CFTC - have spiked to multiyear highs in the past few weeks. Reuters provides an outstanding interactive graph of trader positioning in the major currencies over time. FXY -7% YTD. [View news story]
    Even with the record shorts, it's only moved ~50 pips...now that's what is scary. Simply shows there's lots of Yen buying out there...
    Dec 10, 2012. 01:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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