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nightfly

nightfly
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  • "The undercarriage that brought (equity markets) this far is corroding," writes Eric Swarts, noting serious breakdowns in correlation between the S&P and Treasury yields, commodities, and equities outside of the States. Spain is surely due for a rebound that may lead another push higher for the S&P into the Facebook IPO, but be ready to stay nimble then.  [View news story]
    Could not be further from reality. TLT/TBT is all about the Fed buying long bonds. Additionally, money gets parked in bonds (of all maturities, typically short term) when the market slides.

    The recent bounce in TBT was due to the fact that hopes for QEx had been quashed. Now TBT is lower due to seasonality and fear of the market dropping further.
    Apr 20, 2012. 10:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This could be one of the best earnings seasons ever, but as Europe staggers, U.S. markets appear destined to follow them down. Just how precarious is it? "Basically, we're mountain climbers," says S&P Capital's Sam Stovall. "The U.S. is in front, China is behind and Europe is tethered to us. But if Europe should fall, it could drag the rest of us down the mountain as well."  [View news story]
    They sees what they want to sees and nothing else.

    Do your own analysis and find the truth that is out there.
    Apr 20, 2012. 02:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. state tax revenue has finally returned to its pre-recession peak and likely continued growing at the beginning of this year, according to a Rockefeller Institute report. Overall state tax revenue increased 3.6% Y/Y in Q4 2011, and was 3% higher than in Q4 of 2007 and 7.4% better than in Q4 of 2008.  [View news story]
    Higher taxes will and do result in higher income. CA has and continues to raise taxes. I pay more in CA tax for the last 3 years than federal. Before that, it was roughly even.
    Apr 20, 2012. 02:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple (AAPL) -1.3% after Canaccord's Mike Walkley, a long-time bull, slashes his FQ3 iPhone sales estimate to 29.34M from 33.58M, and his FQ4 estimate to a mere 26.11M from 33.58M. Walkley, who is nonetheless raising his PT to $740, says recent checks indicate iPhone sales have "modestly declined in certain developed markets," and expects this trend to continue due to new Android launches, Verizon's LTE promos, and iPhone 5 anticipation. FQ2 results are due on Tuesday.  [View news story]
    Yep, ~$550 is the 50 day MA. Likely a bounce after a little push below there to take out some stops.
    Apr 20, 2012. 12:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple 5-Day Losing Streaks [View article]
    It's likely going to go to $550 before support enters. They better knock the leather off the ball for it not to fall under$500 post earnings...

    Apr 17, 2012. 01:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The read-in to Alcoa's (AA) conference call is encouraging, especially for materials stocks, says CNBC's Pete Najarian. The CEO talked positively about China, and that's a meaningful change. “All anyone hears is how bad China is. But Klaus Kleinfeld is talking about global demand growth at 7%. That’s pretty phenomenal. That tells us something about the global economy that we haven’t heard over the past month or two." (video)  [View news story]
    I would not invest on what a CEO says - they are just salesmen like all the rest.
    Apr 10, 2012. 10:24 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Momentum Waning [View article]
    Think this through...

    You just bought AAPL for $600ish.

    Stock drops to $550, and the brain/emotions set it..." oh the pullback I've been waiting for..." so you buy more. You are briefly vindicated as you get a pop up back to $600 which is met by eager sellers and the stock goes back to $500.

    Will you hold? How about $450...still hold-in?

    Emotions can make for terrible losses.
    Apr 4, 2012. 02:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Momentum Waning [View article]
    Ananthan,

    Good article. The AAPL acolytes will decry your doom and "stupidity" as in 'you just don't get AAPL', but you will be proven right sometime this year and then longer term, very right.

    For those of you that got into AAPL at sub-100, good for you. You can tell your grand kids how you bought AAPL for $19 and watched skyrocket to "$Huge Number" only to crash to some more fundamental valuation.

    If you don't see this as a bubble you never will see any bubble.

    As to fundamentals, you should be aware of margin compression. It's already happening, just look to the iPad 3.

    Just ask the RIMM zealots how their faith and loyalty was rewarded. I shorted that baby all the way down...am doing the same with AAPL. Not because AAPL is currently a bad company, but because it's valuation is in parabolic bubble mode.

    Disclosure: short and getting shorter on AAPL.
    Mar 21, 2012. 09:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Reasons Why Financials Are Breaking Out [View article]
    We are becoming Japan...ZIRP forever; stagnation, forever, etc.

    Nothing has changed, back to the same old game. Election year ramp up.

    Just don't get married to stocks, sell when the trend changes.
    Mar 20, 2012. 12:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Saying Apple (AAPL) has reached the "trading toy stage," Robert Sinn reminds of the track record of other stocks that have recently garnered the public imagination - it's not good. "Volume and volatility create action, excitement, and opportunity. However, the action we are currently witnessing in Apple is not healthy."  [View news story]
    Too much cheap money chasing "sure things...", this is how the .com bubble happened.

    Right now, equities are the only place to put that free money... nothing else is as "safe", short memories and greed will sure to be punished again and again.
    Mar 14, 2012. 04:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How big is Apple (AAPL)? Well, if you took every $1, $2, $5, $10, $20 and $50 bill currently in circulation, you still would not have enough cash to purchase the company. The total value of all U.S. legal tender with a face value below $100 totals up to only $252.8B, which is less than half the value of Apple’s current market cap.  [View news story]
    Wow, what a bunch of unabashed APPL fan-boys here!

    I'll say just one thing: margin compression.
    Mar 4, 2012. 06:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors are ignoring the financial aspects of living longer, says BlackRock's Larry Fink. Americans are facing an enormous "savings gap" and need an investment strategy with a time horizon greater than just a year. With bonds and bank interest paying next to nothing, the biggest risk for investors isn't market volatility, but investment indecision, and holding on to cash as a safe haven.  [View news story]
    You certainly didn't buy and hold - which is what most folks are told to do and certainly what this article alludes to.

    Most folks don't have the time for active investments - which what you have to do nowadays to preserve capital as we as a nation and world go into and out of more and more frequent bubbles/busts.
    Mar 1, 2012. 01:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors are ignoring the financial aspects of living longer, says BlackRock's Larry Fink. Americans are facing an enormous "savings gap" and need an investment strategy with a time horizon greater than just a year. With bonds and bank interest paying next to nothing, the biggest risk for investors isn't market volatility, but investment indecision, and holding on to cash as a safe haven.  [View news story]
    Yeah, the last 12 years have been great! If you were lucky, you broke even (not counting inflation), if not, you're down.

    But this time is different I am sure as as a nation and world, everything is fixed and so much better than in 2007 or 2002 or...

    You just have to beat inflation if you are a saver.
    Feb 29, 2012. 09:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dow can rise to 15,000 if more investors return to buying stocks as the economy improves, Jeremy Siegel says, and return they should: "In a zero-interest-rate world, you don't get many opportunities like this." Despite a "good, not great" earnings season, "we don't need super-fast earnings growth to have a good market," as today's valuations make stocks "very, very attractive."  [View news story]
    Wow, the pump pieces are hitting a peak here.
    Feb 21, 2012. 09:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • As foreclosures ease, the logical assumption is that home prices will rebound. But this unique housing market could turn that assumption on its head: "Investors and first timers want REO and short sales. Anything done to prevent the flow of distressed property will hurt the volume of existing home sales... An REO-to-rent program will bring about record lows in [volume], and volume precedes price."  [View news story]
    Just wait for the held back foreclosures to start hitting the market since the whole robo signing thing has been "resolved".
    Feb 17, 2012. 09:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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