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nightfly

nightfly
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  • James Bianco is taken aback that two measures of broad-based economic activity - gasoline consumed and miles driven - are "falling hard" at a time when it's assumed the economy is getting better. Throughout history, the U.S. economy has never improved while its citizens drive less and use less gasoline. Perhaps these are false signals, he says, but they could be pointing to a faltering economy.  [View news story]
    yeah, not the only indicator. look at basic materials, even copper with a large speculative component has rolled over.

    Companies and individuals don't buy what they don't need.
    Feb 16 01:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • We're seeing some very interesting changes in U.S. market reactions to events in Europe, observes Jack Bouroudjian. Banks not only rebounded today "in the wake" of the bad news in Europe, but equities in general also moved up in the face of a weaker euro for the first time in months. Bouroudjian says to keep an eye on this decoupling, because it will be "a real good tell" for the course of the markets over the next few weeks. (video)  [View news story]
    I find it interesting that so many are giving credence to the typical holiday ramp in equities and the also seasonal "better numbers around the world".

    Only if these "superb" numbers continue through the non-seasonal bumps will they mean anything.

    As for housing? Well, the only building going on is for residential rentals. Been down so long...

    Follow FX it always lead and equities eventually follow: AUD/JPY is the best tell.
    Jan 6 12:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The S&P 500 should post modest gains next year, says Russell Investments' Stephen Wood. Unfortunately, right now we are engaged in a violent tug-of-war between the stuff we can measure, like positive economic and corporate data in the U.S., and the irrational fear of the unknown, Europe especially, that make forecasting a very difficult task. In the end though, it's the fundamentals, valuations and earnings that really matter, and the markets will stabilize. (video)  [View news story]
    Only the 1000th+ buy-side fund manager to say exactly the same thing over the last 3+ years.

    One thing that no one gets is that history has no analog. Throw out the comparisons to past recessions - they've all been pre-cursors to this mess.

    At no other time in history has then been so much debt; govt and personal balance sheets are completely lopsided; the US has only money printing as it's last tool - EU will soon join the race to the bottom there.

    The new normal is still forming.
    Dec 1 09:49 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The S&P 500 will hit 1,400 within the next couple of months, asserts Federated's Phil Orlando. So don't bother with Treasurys, get out of defensive stocks and move into sectors that are positioned to benefit from the resumption of economic growth we appear to be seeing now. Kanaly Trust's James Shelton agrees; his top picks include: iShares Russell 1000 Growth (IWF), JPMorgan Alerian MLP Index (AMJ) and the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD). (video)  [View news story]
    Risk reward favors the short side currently, at least into the T-day. Then flat to up from there. This EU mess is far from over. Holidays will help the bulls however.
    Oct 30 06:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Global airline stocks are higher today on the temporary abatement of Europe's crisis: Ryanair (RYAAT.PK +6.8%), Lufthansa (DLAKY.PK +4.5%), Air France (AFLYY.PK +7.4%), Delta (DAL +1.6%), AMR Corp. (AMR +3%).  [View news story]
    IT's an "everything up" day, fundamentals don't matter (just like on a everything down day).

    Refiners and airlines would both make good shorts here...
    Oct 27 02:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If you've ever doubted whether Bank of America (BAC) is in serious trouble, this development should settle it, says Naked Capitalism's Yves Smith. In a move to reduce the bank's holding company exposure, it recently moved a large tranche of its worst performing derivatives from its Merrill Lynch unit to a subsidiary flush with taxpayer insured deposits. The Fed has signaled it favors the move, but the FDIC, which will have to pay off depositors in the event of a bank failure, objects.  [View news story]
    Like I needed another reason to yank my deposits there...2 weeks, they are gone!
    Oct 18 11:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Just hours after Deutsche Bank warns that France could be put under negative watch by the credit rating agencies before year's end, Moody's says France's fiscal condition is "among the weakest of France's Aaa peers... Over the next three months, Moody's will monitor and assess the stable outlook in terms of the government's progress."  [View news story]
    And then there was one...will the one bail out everyone else? Not likely.
    Oct 17 10:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P's David Beers warns enlarging the EU bailout fund (EFSF) could trigger ratings downgrades - for the fund itself, and even Germany and France. "There (are) no cheap, risk-free leveraging options for the EFSF any more," he says.  [View news story]
    Even if it somehow gets implemented, which isn't likely, the impact won't likely last more than 9 months or so, just like the various bailouts and QEx in the US.

    The answer to debt is not more dept and spreading it around to thin it out. It has to be cut and cut hard, only then can a solid foundation of growth be laid.
    Sep 25 08:05 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Play The Relief Rally [View article]
    Well, the people are trying to get the leadership change in there, but with "change" and "hope" Obama, we just got more of the same.

    I have no faith in our captured govt officials to be able to anything more than increasing the debt burden on the American people to further increase the already grossly rich that are loaning that money to us.

    Debt default is the only answer for America, the EU, and other indebted entities. Maybe then, we can get some sort of fresh start.
    Sep 16 09:48 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pondering the dispiriting poverty numbers out this week, Josh Brown asks Wall Streeters to keep perspective: "We're trading and investing in our own little hamlet, playing at capitalism as the society all around us devolves into a feudal misery-scape just outside the walls of the garden."  [View news story]
    Finally a quote from somebody who sees it for what it is.

    I guess as long as the never-ending bailouts continue...

    And corporations can continue to slash workers and thus grow their profits...

    And the answer to too much debt is going more in debt...

    The farce of the market can continue for a long while.
    Sep 16 09:33 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank layoffs are overblown and the cuts won't be as bad as 2008, says hedge fund recruiter Ilana Weinstein. Most of the big cuts will more than likely come from employee bonus compensation. "It's not that expensive to keep people so long as you don't pay them. I think you’ll have people who are paid absolutely nothing and [the managers are] going to use that money to retain the producers."  [View news story]
    Scraping the bottom of the barrel with this quote from Weinstein. Heck ,just pay people in food, that'll motivate them, and break out the whip if that doesn't work.

    Check out the "Hunger Wall" in Prague for an example of an oppressed but motivated people.
    Sep 16 09:23 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "France and Germany are convinced Greece's future is in the eurozone," goes part of a joint statement by Merkozy after a conference call with George Papandreou, in which the Greek leader reiterated "his government's determination to take all necessary measures to meet targets."  [View news story]
    Yeah, we believe this statement much more than the last dozen or so. The enablers in Germany are on their way out...
    Sep 14 03:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Short selling ban update: SocGen's (SGLY.PK) performance since the introduction and then extension of the ban. Both moves were good for a pop, but the shares - off 8% today to a new 52 week low - are going to go where they're going to go.  [View news story]
    No short squeeze possible to help bring in new buyers. Short bans are never ever a good idea - just a knee jerk reaction from desperate politicians to do "something".
    Sep 5 12:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Companies may not be hiring but they are spending: manufacturing and trade sales rose over 12% Y/Y in June, S&P 500 firms have upped dividends by almost $29B this year, and M&A's are increasing. The trends show "companies are more confident in the economic recovery" than some might think.  [View news story]
    One word: "lagging". These types of decisions were made months ago. Let's see how the 4th and 1st quarter investments go.
    Aug 21 12:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A horrid day, but stocks are rallying hard into the close, the major averages shaving more than 1% off of their losses in the last 10 minutes of trade. Three minutes before the bell, the S&P 500 down only 4.3%.  [View news story]
    Shorts gotta buy to cover and a primary reason why outlawing shorting is never a good idea.
    Aug 18 04:04 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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