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Ba1k3es

Ba1k3es
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  • Has The Realized Equity Premium Been Shrinking? [View article]
    BondGuy,

    All else being equal they will go down. ERP represents the amount of extra return an investor needs for taking on the extra risk as compared to the risk free rate (i.e. the 10 yr tbond).

    Google CAPM model.
    Jul 7 11:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bitcoin Discussion Forum [View instapost]
    Bitcoin is currency designed like a gold-based one... stupid. Why is the rate of currency expansion determined by some irrelevant number (aka mining rates) instead of something based off the actual underlying economy? Stupid system, that is long term deflationary, which causes people to hoard until everyone else decides it isn't needed and it goes to zero.
    Jun 16 09:02 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Piketty Is Wrong: Part 3 - Policy Recommendations [View article]
    Philip, I didn't see anyone putting any other proposals forth...
    Jun 16 06:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Piketty Is Wrong: Part 3 - Policy Recommendations [View article]
    Neil quit wasting time and space by taking things to extremes. It is a pointless exercise. Also don't assume things from my text unless I have explicitly said it, because your track record of correct assumptions or conclusions is proving terrible.

    "All I know about you is what you post in comments and in your profile.
    If you can't be clear about your position, blame someone else, not me."

    Assuming things such as that I do not have kids or that I went to a public school is hardly something I would consider "not being clear about a position." They sound more like words of someone who believes they are the smartest one in the room. Plus you take 100 lines to say things that could be said in 10.

    Not sure why you are so smitten that you just want to discuss me instead of the topics.
    Jun 16 06:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Piketty Is Wrong: Part 3 - Policy Recommendations [View article]
    Neil, you know little about me, but assume a lot. Mostly wrong or very wrong, especially on key assertions. Please do not characterize me.

    Meritocracy is the idea that you are rewarded by your actions alone. Being friends with someone who gets you put in over a more qualified candidate is not meritocracy. And yes I look down upon that as ethically contemptible.

    Also I never said all children born in wealth will be worthless, and is not at all what I think. If asked me which of two babies will grow to earn (and by merit) the most in their lifetimes, the question I would ask is whose parents make more money? As that child will have access to better education, likely have better upbringing, more likely to come from hardworking parents which will be passed down, etc. It is precisely these actions which is what is encouraged by not passing wealth to heirs, as I said before.

    However, if the heirs of vasts fortunes are deadbeats and waste it or unwisely it invest it then capital is destroyed at a disproportionate expense to society as compared to someone who inherits a dime doing the same thing.

    I feel and some in the rich group feel that as holders of large amount of capital they have a societal duty to spend and invest it wisely as to encourage future growth and prosperity for society as a whole.

    I do not at all actually think or am advocating actually implementing eliminating or preventing inheritance. However I do think we can and should curtail some of it.
    Jun 11 09:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has The Realized Equity Premium Been Shrinking? [View article]
    Damodaran from NYU has calculated the implied equity risk premium for every year since like 1960 (and he also currently calculates it each month). He has written on the topic of equity risk premium extensively. By his numbers we are still ABOVE the historical rate of the last 50 years. It bottomed out in 2000 only to top out in 2009. I think using decade averages (especially the past two) would be a mistake.

    You can find this information on his website containing a vast wealth of financial data in excel spreadsheets.
    Jun 11 08:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Piketty Is Wrong: Part 3 - Policy Recommendations [View article]
    Yes there are a myriad of issues with the implementation, that is obvious.

    It seems that you realize defense of inheritance from a capitalist/meritocracy standpoint is extremely difficult, yet you don't seem to want to admit that inheritance (perhaps due to personal motives) inherently anti-capitalist and instead attempt to muddy the waters by trying to switch to implementation.

    So far the only defense of inheritance (when taking a philosophic view) you have managed is that people are encouraged to save to provide for their heirs. That is extremely weak. If there was no inheritance, then the incentive would be to make sure their heirs were educated well enough to provide for themselves by being contributors to society. Instead of the incentive being just to make sure heirs could afford to live in society.

    Don't get me wrong, I don't view inheritance as a some terrible act or sin. I just don't view it as productive for society, and find the hypocrisy of those that strongly advocate for meritocracy contrastly support inheritance and less burdensome taxes on inherited wealth, very self serving. Nepotism is also anti-meritocracy, but in my opinion this one is morally contemptable.
    Jun 10 10:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Piketty Is Wrong: Part 3 - Policy Recommendations [View article]
    A right of property belongs to the living.

    Philip, I am well aware of the complexities, difficulties, and loopholes of actually banning inheritance. I am not really interested in discussing implementation at this point. I am trying to understand whether you believe inheritance is aligned with capitalism/meritocracy. Implementation discussion, imo, would happen downstream of this question.
    Jun 10 08:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Piketty Is Wrong: Part 1 - The Math [View article]
    Nope.
    Jun 10 08:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Piketty Is Wrong: Part 3 - Policy Recommendations [View article]
    " 1. Inherited wealth would be taxed as ordinary income in the year the inheritance is received by the heir. It would be taxed like any other income as part of a very broad based income tax scheme. "

    Why should we, as a capitalist society, allow inheritance? It is the opposite of capitalism.
    Jun 9 10:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Piketty Is Wrong: Part 1 - The Math [View article]
    Or I can advocate for meritocratic society as opposed of just under of just disguising personal motives.
    Jun 9 09:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Piketty Is Wrong: Part 3 - Policy Recommendations [View article]
    After reading your 3 part series I am left very unconvinced. You keep referring to the math, but your articles are pretty much void of any math.

    "D. Estate Taxes - Estate taxes would be limited to a tax of 10% on the amount of stepped up cost basis on assets. Assets would be distributed to heirs at a tax cost basis equal to current fair market value so that the heirs would pay reduced capital gains taxes if they sold the assets."

    Why would we limit the taxation of inherited wealth? Inherited wealth is the complete opposite of meritocracy/capitalism as it gets.
    Jun 9 09:33 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Piketty Is Wrong: Part 1 - The Math [View article]
    I agree, meritocracy is what is needed. Get rid of inherited wealth.
    Jun 9 09:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Investors That QE Left Behind [View article]
    "Sec Gage said it."

    I did not know he was on the Federal Reserve Board or spoke for the collective Fed.
    May 16 01:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Investors That QE Left Behind [View article]
    "Actually we were told the central bank would be the system of perfection."

    When? Where? I must have missed that press release.
    May 15 09:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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