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Ba1k3es

Ba1k3es
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  • Why We Are Keynesians [View article]
    Well I would look at all available studies as with a few examples you can draw any conclusion. I am sure there are public and private funded studies on the topic. Just like one example fails to paint an adequate picture, one study likely is just as bad. I mean what if you followed just the "findings" of big tobacco's studies? The more and varied the research, the better the picture.

    One could look at the forecasts of the National Weather Forecast vs private sector, and find them to be just about as accurate as the best in the business. Which is sad for the private sector, since all of the NWS's data is made available for free. They also are responsible for dramatically increasing the ability to predict hurricane paths. Then you have examples like NASA, which beat private sector in manned flight to outer-space by decades, or the great Hoover Dam.

    Or one could look other examples and find an entirely different view. Take the investment in Solyndra, or the recent disaster of the healthcare website.
    Point being I can paint any type of picture I like depending how I want to paint it by just using a few examples. The private sector definitely has it's place and items which they are better at. The public sector has their place as well, especially in "tragedy of the commons" type situations.
    Jan 30 09:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Argentina's Problem Is Not Fed Tapering [View article]
    Maybe the optimal solution does not lie at either extreme?
    Jan 29 05:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Argentina's Problem Is Not Fed Tapering [View article]
    Yes, Somalia has certainly prospered under a lack of a central government.
    Jan 29 01:06 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why We Are Keynesians [View article]
    Chills down my spine, chills down my spine, Jondavi.
    Jan 25 05:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why We Are Keynesians [View article]
    How much more inefficient is the public sector? People state it is fact but what do data and studies show? Please spare me examples, I can think of plenty on both sides but a few examples are not necessarily a good representative of a data population.
    Jan 25 05:01 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Anti-Scientific Foundation Of Macroeconomics [View article]
    Kertch,

    Well-reasoned posts. Piling excess reserves causes the "velocity" to drop because this money doesn't move. Piling excess reserves to the roof cannot spur inflation themselves, they need credit expansion.

    Hypothetically the federal reserve could drop the velocity to 0 by just increasing bank reserves a la QE, yet prices in the market would remain unaffected (unless people became fearful).

    Therefore a decreasing velocity is a poor trigger to increase QE.
    Jan 21 11:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Anti-Scientific Foundation Of Macroeconomics [View article]
    David,

    I agree that the goal of QE is to prevent deflation, and I agree with its use. However my disagreement is your suggestion of the use of velocity to determine how much QE to use.

    My point is that QE has proved that Fed cannot force inflation by QE. Velocity has decreased rapidly because that QE money sits idly as bank reserves and does not have a direct mechanism to affect prices. So targeting an M2 velocity is not useful.

    Unfortunately for the Fed, money creation that actually affects inflation is controlled by the banks making loans, which is determined by interest paid on reserves and their risk assessments of borrowers.
    Jan 19 02:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Deteriorating Fiscal Situation In Japan [View article]
    Do you pay taxes from money saved ten years ago? No. You pay taxes on money you earned THIS year. You are confused, or you haven't payed taxes in a while.

    How many people have spent with no savings? It happens everyday. But sales taxes are, in the scope of things, unimportant to the discussion.
    Jan 18 04:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Anti-Scientific Foundation Of Macroeconomics [View article]
    "Bank reserves can enter the economy through rehypathocation. This can change Mb, Mmzm, M1, and M2 which in tern can impact CPI. Between 2008 and 2013 M2 increased by about 3.5 TUSD. A very large portion of that was because of bank reserves increasing. If velocity and GDP had remained constant, this would have resulted in significant inflation. However because both velocity and GDP were declining, prices only changed slightly."

    Velocity is only calculated after the fact. If there is no resultant Nominal GDP change, then by definition velocity will decline. According to you this should trigger increasing QE. But then this just becomes a positive feedback loop, which increasing QE decreases velocity.
    Jan 18 04:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why We Are Not OK And Not On A Sustainable Trajectory [View article]
    In societies, are economies a means to an end or are they an end in themselves?
    Jan 18 04:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Anti-Scientific Foundation Of Macroeconomics [View article]
    "This is probably related to the demand for money. As demand for money declines but the volume increases, one might reasonably conclude that velocity would decline."

    Demand for money should, by definition, put downward pressure on velocity. I wasn't sure if you were saying that here.

    Also velocity should have the units currency/time.

    I apologize I have tried to follow your example, but I am not sure what conclusion is being reached.

    Simple question, do you think money in bank reserves has direct changes to CPI or GDP? Asked another way, if tomorrow the Fed 100 trillion in bank reserves (via QE) will there be a spike in GDP or CPI tomorrow?
    Jan 18 12:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Deteriorating Fiscal Situation In Japan [View article]
    Why try being blunt and beating-around-the-bush about it. Anecdotal evidence proves nothing. This isn't difficult, just look at the direct data. http://bit.ly/1axl0kQ

    Your comment is like saying "The Lakers have the best record in basketball, as proven by these videos of Pau Gasol dunking the basketball." Instead of simply just looking at the standings.

    The chart of the actual data I provided, and these quotes from your article:
    "has made Tokyo apartments cheaper this year" and "Tokyo real estate has become a bargain," say it all. I do not think you understand what deflation is.

    "...because real estate developers just LOVE to jump into deflationary RE markets, right?" Please look up some logical fallacies.

    Stop digging your own hole. I am just trying to help. I am not sure why you have such a personal attachment to your initial statement, I sure don't care about which direction prices in Tokyo have been moving, just which direction it is.

    Edit:
    Here is another chart, focusing on the most recent decade.
    http://bit.ly/1hA4eqi
    Jan 18 12:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Deteriorating Fiscal Situation In Japan [View article]
    I provided links in a comment (below) showing real estate in Japan has been in deflation since the 90s. If your had some actual reading comprehension you would have noticed my comment referred to Japanese market.

    However, the link I provided just above also shows that Tokyo itself has been in deflation since the 90s. I do not know why you would "still be waiting" when I had already provided this link, or why you would "still be waiting" despite having never asked for this information before.

    I found this information in about 35 seconds by googling the phrases "Real Estate Japan" and "Real Estate Tokyo" and clicking on images.
    Jan 17 10:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Deteriorating Fiscal Situation In Japan [View article]
    I watched your video link, did you? The video reports about the creation of tiny apartments and people living in them. It says absolutely nothing about increasing prices. Again the data shows you are wrong.
    Jan 17 10:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Deteriorating Fiscal Situation In Japan [View article]
    Well the data shows otherwise. I haven't even seen you present data showing the the real estate in Tokyo is even rising significantly.

    Edit: googled it.
    http://bit.ly/1axl0kQ
    You are wrong about Tokyo also. I guess ignorance is bliss.
    Jan 17 10:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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