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Ba1k3es

Ba1k3es
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  • 10 Years Of Disappearing Teen Jobs [View article]
    Here is the results of a study of the studies shows.... no effect from minimum wage.

    http://bit.ly/1CSIzXs
    Feb 10, 2015. 08:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Years Of Disappearing Teen Jobs [View article]
    Spot on Tin Lizzy.

    It is clear Iron is committing a post hoc ergo propter hoc type fallacy: http://bit.ly/1CSHI97

    I suspect and suggested above the same hypothesis as you (older workers pushing out newer workers), but I have not seen a clean analysis of the underlying data.

    This graph shows that the # at or below minimum wage actually increased from 2007-2011 which is the opposite of the 16-19 group.
    http://1.usa.gov/1CSHI9a

    And this graph shows the distribution of minimum wage workers by age group.
    http://bit.ly/1CSHI9b

    Clearly the number of minimum wage jobs increased while the 16-19 group were displaced by prime working age workers during this time period.

    Thus the minimum wage increases DID NOT decrease minimum wage jobs and is not responsible for the loss of 16-19 group in the workplace, rather other age groups displaced them.
    Feb 10, 2015. 08:36 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Years Of Disappearing Teen Jobs [View article]
    "Thank you for confirming that you're not familiar with any of our previous analysis, where all the "you should" steps you suggest were presented."

    Does it surprise you that I am unfamiliar with your previous work? It isn't like you are a big deal.

    Employment to population charts hardly tell me if more or less people who are looking for work are employed. Unemployment rates do. Employment to population may decline due to non-labor market reasons such as more people going to college.

    You have not proven that the graphs would look any different absent the wage hikes. You have not said why when there are decades and decades of data available you have chosen to limit it to the just the last decade. A decade that captures one of the worst recessions in the last 100 years.

    Your article is poor, and other comments agree. Ignore it at your own detriment.
    Feb 10, 2015. 07:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Years Of Disappearing Teen Jobs [View article]
    "Minimum wage laws don't suddenly increase marginal productivity; it just prices out those who can't produce the minimum wage."

    Link to published peer-reviewed studies with empirical proof please.
    Feb 10, 2015. 07:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Years Of Disappearing Teen Jobs [View article]
    Your graph with the wage hikes is setup terrible.

    There should be a graph for national employment percentage with the federal increases.

    Then there should be a graph for California employment percentage with California minimum wage increases.

    Also, you should just plot the real minimum wage for each. The historical time segment you have chosen is very short, I am sure the data goes back much further.

    Also you fail to convince that minimum wage increases had any affect on the decline of employment within these age groups, as they fell roughly in step with the general population unemployment: http://bit.ly/1z2VGyS

    Here is a chart showing those employed + those in school. Near 2008 highs: http://bit.ly/1z2VHTA

    In fact looking at the historical unemployment rate for the 16-19 group, it looks mostly like normal employment population trends. Where unemployment decreases until recession, then spikes and repeats. http://bit.ly/1z2VHTC

    I would venture to guess the lesser employment rate of teens has more to do with more going to school and choosing not to work during it and that some were replaced by older workers. I believe it appears rather unlikely these wage increases really had any meaningful affect compared to that of the financial crises. To try to say otherwise is absurdly foolish.
    Feb 9, 2015. 10:15 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What U.S. Capital Gains Tax Reform Means For Investors [View article]
    Couldn't agree more MWinMD.

    Hell large inheritances are as anti-capitilistic as it gets. I mean where else are such large handouts given to people who have done nothing to earn them?
    Feb 8, 2015. 05:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The 'Efficiency' Of The Market Doesn't Matter To Smart Investors [View article]
    I am not a believer in EMH. If your want to classify index investing as non passive because I am making a decision to go with a certain asset type; fine by me. You say it isn't apples to apples, but to me and many others it is close enough for me to make the decision to shun managed funds.

    Study after study has shown so far that going with the index fund is a better bet than going with an asset manager mostly due to fees. I don't doubt there are good ones out there that do better, the problem is figuring out which ones they are, and probability is that I would pick wrong.

    To me we are in a current state of arbitrage where index fund investing will continue to grow until, asset managers decrease prices to compete or only the good ones remain.
    Jan 29, 2015. 10:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Greece Declare A New National Currency In 2015? [View instapost]
    Germany cannot and will not afford to allow a Greek exit. Greece would be much better off if they had their own currency and central bank.

    Greece has been the prime example case of why Austerity in deflationary environment is stupid and why a common currency among separate political countries is stupid.
    Jan 28, 2015. 11:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Roth Conversion Odyssey (Part 2) [View article]
    I do and will continue to.
    Jan 28, 2015. 11:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • My Roth Conversion Odyssey (Part 2) [View article]
    So there is one way you might be able to swing the convert 13, recharcterize 12 thing.

    There is no tax penalty as long as you pay 100% of last year's tax burden in a timely manner.

    Example:
    2013 taxes were $10,000

    Convert 13 positions in kind into ROTH IRA in February 2014.
    Pay $10,000 in estimated tax by 4/15/14
    Recharacterize 12 positions before filing 2014 taxes.

    I believe you will not suffer a tax penalty, and not need to fork over enough dollars to cover the full conversion. However, I have never done this and am NOT a tax professional. I would suggest that anyone thinking of doing something like this to consult a tax professional.

    Also as long as come tax time if you payed 90% of your tax due for that year timely then you should also be ok, allowing you to only pay estimated tax on 1 of the 13.

    Having said all this, sometimes some things are not worth the headache and trouble (paperwork, working with broker through fairly uncommon things) involved to squeeze out a few bucks.
    Jan 28, 2015. 10:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • My Roth Conversion Odyssey (Part 2) [View article]
    "Guess who invented the 39.6% tax rate"

    That is but a mere tiny blip of a single bracket in an otherwise obvious trend among ALL brackets. Not worth mentioning except to hyper political folks that have nothing better to worry about.
    Jan 28, 2015. 10:29 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Roth Conversion Odyssey (Part 2) [View article]
    Also to correct my missing 1 from a post above. The conversion deadline is Dec 31st.
    Jan 27, 2015. 08:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Roth Conversion Odyssey (Part 2) [View article]
    I posted this above, which is free and well deserving of a second recommendation post.
    ------
    Bigfoot48 over at the Bogleheads forum created a model that allows you to play out many different and complicated scenarios in an excel model. I used and continue to use it to navigate a close to "optimal" path for my mother (age 60) (where optimal means more than just having the largest pile of money at age X).

    Some things it helped me figure out: When to do conversions, and how much to minimize tax hits now and in RMD years. When should she take SS? How do rates of return affect it? etc.

    http://bit.ly/1zRmmI0

    The bogleheads wiki has a link to the forum post containing the excel file download.

    It is an excellent tool that I highly recommend. However, I am very experienced in excel and would say fairly strong understanding of the options available in the model and their impact. For someone of similar level of experience it will probably take an hour or to get your first working scenario and somewhat comprehend it. For the less experience it could take several hours to complete your first scenario correctly. Once you get the hang of it, they come much faster and are well worth the effort.
    Jan 27, 2015. 08:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • My Roth Conversion Odyssey (Part 2) [View article]
    There is a certain legal meaning to words that may not be the same as colloquial speech. I would not try it even if I found a CPA to back you up. Sometimes figuring out how to squeeze every dime out isn't really worth the effort or happiness.
    Jan 27, 2015. 08:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • My Roth Conversion Odyssey (Part 2) [View article]
    Correct, you still need to pay estimated taxes in the quarter that you convert on the total amount you convert.
    Jan 27, 2015. 06:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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