StockMasterFlash

Ethanol vs. Natural Gas or Coal: Comparison Not Even Close

China definitely needs SSL going forward, look through their technologies it is amazing... even going back to WW2 they had liquification processes you are just hearing about in the last ten years.

25 Reasons We Will Not Have a Depression

Lets just say for arguments sake things are slightly on the mend... I don't believe that leads to a crash in the markets, like EVERYONE is saying. The retail investor has not even put their toes in the market yet. That by itself will probably prevent any correction over 8%.

THE DUMBNESS OF DIVIDENDS

A dividend is a good thing for any company that regularly earns cash above its expenses and any possible expansion/growth expenses if they have a stable business and good balance sheet.

5%+ Dividend Yields in the S&P 500

Dividend growth and consistency of that growth is even more important than the current yield. That is why PM is better than MO for example, despite PM's lower yield.

Eight Recent Dividend Increases

INTC! Check out their explosive dividend growth since 2000, if that continues holding for the next 10 years will make you seriously rich.


On Nov 16 10:41 AM Michael D. wrote:

> INTC raised today also for 2010. Very interesting times for this
> company.

Memo to AT&T: When You're in a Hole, Stop Digging

Interesting, I have had both services and stuck with Verizon because of signal quality in major cities is better and their coverage map sold me, but that was 2002 so it looks like not much has changed.

A business principle that may be working for ATT though: the amount of customers they lose may be offset by not having that infrastructure cost VZ has so it could be entirely a wash. Those numbers would be even more interesting to look at. Obviously ATT has considered spreading out 3G in the manner VZ has, but didn't do it for some reason.

Time for the U.S. Economy to Reindustrialize

We already have a decline in that service sector and knowledge based services in general. Our economy in the last ten years is based off of previous wealth and real estate price speculation while we flipped properties back and forth to ourselves. The manufacturing is gone. Why would we reindustralize when you can hire a Chinese firm to do your manufacturing for you at 1/10th of the cost?

The trade: dollar goes lower so the dow/s&p can still go higher (but be in global growth businesses) because they are really going nowhere in dollar terms

Cooper: Turnaround Coming for Natural Gas

$80 per barrel is close to the marginal cost of supply? Maybe bringing on new tar sands projects, but not traditional drilling rigs.

Are Markets Headed for an 800-Point Blow-Off Day?

Careful with the puts, I'd wait for some kind of sign that we may be headed down (I don't see any) before buying them even if it costs you more. If we drift higher, blow off top higher, or go sideways the time premium on your puts will get eroded and its a waste of money. Yes, fundamentals are poor etc. but the tape doesn't tell me we are going lower yet.


On Nov 12 08:06 AM Mad Hedge Fund Trader wrote:

> mnc If I’ve told you once, I’ve told you a thousand times, stay out
> of those crummy neighborhoods, where the street corners are crowded
> with high priced stocks of dubious moral character wearing stiletto
> heels, fishnet stockings, miniskirts, and shoulder handbags. Sure,
> I know you young traders have needs, think with your hormones, and
> believe you can live forever. But if you absolutely have to go slumming,
> at least use some cheap protection. I noticed today that the January
> 1030 S&P 500 puts were selling at a bargain $19 today. That means
> for a mere $950 you can buy some decent downside protection for a
> $55,000 portfolio that takes you all the way out to January 15, 2010.
> That is bang on the support level that held in the last sell off.
> If you double top here on the charts and go down for a retest, you
> double you money. If yearend profit taking causes us to sell off
> going into the holidays, and we break that support, you make more.
> If the market melts down the day after we flip the calendar page
> to 2010, a distinct possibility, then you hit a home run. If the
> lemmings keep driving this market up every day for two more months,
> then you lose $900, or 1.72% of your portfolio, pennies, really,
> against the huge returns you have booked so far this year. It’s a
> win, win, win, lose pennies trader. I know that the pros that have
> done for a long time put these trades on without even thinking about
> it. It’s all about risk control. Since I am a cheapskate, I only
> like strapping on trades that have a risk/reward ratio overwhelmingly
> in my favor, and with the volatility index today a bargain 23%, this
> fits the bill nicely. Buy your storm insurance when the sun is shining.

Are Markets Headed for an 800-Point Blow-Off Day?

I totally agree that there is more likely to be a blow off top than a massive correction, here is why: a scary day in the dollar will scare everyone's money out of the bank that they will finally figure out is losing 10% of their money not gaining .5% because of the devalued dollar. Companies that make money overseas will do best in that case. It is scarier to lose 20% (not in 1 day of course) of the value of your dollar than to put it in stocks, that could be what causes the blow off top. China dumping USA debt or something like that could spark that day. The Bank of India buying gold started another 100 point gold rally for example.

Cramer's Stop Trading! America Is Still Smoking (11/13/09)

When the USA has a coming health care crisis since we have to support say 2 million illegals in California alone I think the risk of owning MO is greater than owning PM since that has international risk where more than 1 country is involved. The dividend growth of PM will make the same investment in PM yield the same as MO in 10 years. But then again, who listens to Cramer?

Where Are the Original Dividend Aristocrats Now?

Yes, MCD and ARLP are great stocks! I bought ARLP at 20 during the crash, I'll hold that til I die and as you can tell by my picture I'm a buff young guy.


On Nov 11 11:22 AM User 461674 wrote:

> Many of the aristrocrats continue to pay over a 3.0% yield and have
> value line dividend growth projections of > 5%. I like McDonalds
> in particular whose projected value line dividend growth rate is
> apx 10% for the next five years. It also pays over a 3.0% dividend
> and is a DOW 30 component..
> Two issues for retired/near retired dividend investors is that many
> of the aristicrats pay small dividends of 1-2%. Further, many have
> very small rates of dividend growth. Perhaps less than half have
> dividends > 3.0% and D growth rates of GT 4% for the next 5 years
> according to value line projections.
> The other issue is that many dividend growth stocks- especially the
> master limited partnerships - have not been around for more than
> 10-15 years and are, thus, automatically excluded.
> My favorite such MLP stock is alliance resource partners (ARLP) which
> has had a dividend growth rate of 15% for the last five years and
> a projected DG rate of 15%. It is involved in the coal industry which
> has been taking off given expected revival of the world economy.
> It pays about a 8% yield.
> An excellent detailed review for MLP's is MLP Weekly Report published
> by Barclays. It is available free to account holders at Fidelity
> Investments under their report search utility.
> - steve of TROY
> The "TROJAN"

Dividend Grouping for Dividend Income

I feel the same way and was lucky to get in on MCD before they raised the dividend this year. Just because the yield is low now on certain stocks doesn't mean it will be 5 years from now. However, I would never pair it with a stock I anticipated would get its dividend cut. I don't really like that part of your strategy, but looking at 2-3% dividends on growth stocks makes sense. It wouldn't yield 5% if it is having double digit growth year after year. That is reserved for utilities or phone companies which are basically utilities for communications.

Perhaps Apple should start paying a dividend with all that cash they have, then I'd take a look

Takeaways from McDonald's (MCD) Investor Day

I doubt we are going to see mid 50's on MCD again, too bad I only bought about 1/2 of the MCD I wanted for my portfolio in the low 50's starting at 48. If we do, buy buy buy. This restaurant chain is a play on food inflation, they manage costs of food better than anyone else. Those figures on the average operator says it all, amazing company. I hear you basically can't even buy a MCD now unless you already own one. This insures no one messes up their brand and only give franchises out to successful operators and not people that think they can put their own spin on MCD.

Recent run is parabolic for MCD, I'd wait for a pullback to 60 if you need in.

Vitamin Shoppe Adds to a Successful IPO

Bravo, not to mention Bodybuilding.com, owned by liberty media I think, eats their lunch all day. The business model is flawed, too much overhead and high prices vs online retailers.


On Nov 12 12:26 PM Balance sheet guru wrote:

> Their balance sheet shows on the asset side $177 milliion in "good
> will" which is a big chunk of their net worth. Sounds like a lot
> of fluff to me. How do the accountants get away with this?
>
> This gives a very distorted book value. Investors are overpaying
> for thios company. Granted they have grown, but the IPO was too high
>
> a price.