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Joe Russo, is presently the publisher and chief market analyst for Elliott Wave Technology, and has been studying Elliott Wave Theory, and the Technical Analysis of Financial Markets since 1991.
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  • Should You Invest For The Long-Haul?

    Should you invest for the long haul? The answer to that question depends on what your definition of "the long haul" is.

    You will need to determine what the long haul means to you after identifying yourself as a long-term investor. You are a long-term investor by default if you have an IRA or 401K. You will then need to establish your investment goals, management and exit strategies, and your tolerance for risk.

    You can establish your risk tolerance by determining a maximum financial-loss threshold where you will protect and preserve the remaining balance of your long-haul investment capital.

    Would you hold on to a long-term investment through multiple years of losing 20%, 30%, 40%, 80% or 99.9% of the price you paid for your investment? Where exactly would you draw the line and abandon ship?

    (click to enlarge)

    Your investment goals can be nearly limitless, from saving for a home, making a major purchase, securing a comfortable retirement or preserving the purchasing power of your life savings. The most basic goal in long-term investing is to make your money grow.

    More importantly than merely increasing in value, your investment should at least keep pace with the cost of living. This goal is essential if you wish to preserve the purchasing power of your hard-earned savings.

    Many investors define long-term investments as an account on the asset side of their balance sheet that represents the investments they intend to hold for more than a year. However, most long-term investors look at least five years down the road.

    Long-term holdings may include but are not limited to stocks, bonds, mutual funds, exchange-traded funds, real estate, and cash.

    Gold and silver have become increasingly popular assets since the beginning of the 21st century. These assets have been relatively profitable and are no longer reserved only for wealthy investors.

    Gold and silver bullion fall into the all-important tangible-asset side of the account ledger. Physical possession of these hard-money assets bears no counter-party risk. The long-term management and rebalancing of these tangible assets is similar to that of managing other long-term assets.

    The Standard & Poor's 500 is the quintessential performance benchmark for the vast majority of investors and professional money managers on the equity side of the account ledger.

    Professional money managers strive to outperform the S&P 500 year in and year out, decade after decade. The overwhelming majority of professional stock pickers who manage vast sums of client money repeatedly fail to match the long-term performance of the S&P 500.

    It's no surprise that legions of individual investors place their long-term investment bets directly with the S&P 500 index, given such influence. They do so via index funds and ETFs.

    These investment vehicles closely mirror the performance of the S&P 500 and carry far lower expense ratios than specialty or sector funds. Index funds and ETFs guarantee that the holders of these funds will outperform the majority of professional money managers.

    These funds sound like they can't fail except for one rather important caveat. How would you feel if the S&P 500 lost 60% of its value over a two-year period, as it did from 2007 to 2009? Even though you may have outperformed the majority of professional money managers, how good are you going to feel about this accomplishment given the magnitude of losses showing in your long-term investment account?

    Long-Term Investing = Investing in Long-Term Trends

    Simplifying the concept of long-term investing in terms of investing in trends makes it clear that investing is not about the over-hyped non-strategy of "buying and holding" for the long haul. Long-term investment is about buying and holding on long-term uptrends as long as they last. You must then stand aside or sell short amid long-term downtrends as long as these trends last.

    When it comes to long-term investments, I find it rather interesting that the mainstream strategy appears to rely exclusively on shifting bullish long exposure from one sector to the next.

    Such logic presumably relies on the fallacy that a bull market always exists somewhere. However, finding these bull markets can be quite a challenge during poor economic periods.

    Click here for graphics that will assist you in answering critical questions to help you determine the suitability of a simple, effective solution for achieving your long-term investment goals.

    Indoctrinated by mass media only to buy, how will the average investor determine where to find the ever-present bull markets espoused? I suppose you can pay someone to do it for you and hope that the person you hire is not one of the professionals who fail to outperform the S&P 500.

    You rarely hear mainstream investment advisors making suggestions to "stand aside" or "move-to-cash" as a viable option for long-term investors. Forget about these advisors ever suggesting that selling the market short might be a viable long-term investment tactic; that would be blasphemy in their eyes.

    What happens to this sector-rotation thesis when all markets move in the same direction as they did throughout the 2007 to 2009 period? It fails miserably, and everyone "holding" goes down with the ship. The only strategy guaranteed to work in this case is to be out of the market entirely or to be short if you are so inclined.

    Keep It Simple

    Why not just stick with the tried-and-true S&P 500 index, but with the provision that you will only stay invested if the long-term trend is bullish. This strategy allows the vast majority of investors to remain invested instead of continually searching for elusive bull markets when the pickings are slim. The trend is your friend until it's not. Your objective should therefore be to stay with the trend until it changes.

    This strategy does not require long-term investors to shuffle asset allocations and rebalance portfolios every time the wind blows. These investors have a clear objective and the tools to reach it. They also have the ability to step aside and take their chips off the table or sell the market short if the S&P 500 shows early signs of a long-term downtrend.

    Timing the Markets vs. Trend Investing

    These strategies are theoretically distinct, although they are essentially the same in practice.

    The conventional wisdom is that no one can time the markets. This is true if you define "timing the market" as getting in at the very bottom and getting out at the very top. Of course, this is impossible.

    However, you can determine the right time to get in and get out by observing and reacting to the status of the long-term trend. This definition of timing the market exemplifies "trend investing," which allows you to time the markets effectively and consistently.

    Click here for graphics that will assist you in answering critical questions to help you determine the suitability of a simple, effective solution for achieving your long-term investment goals.

    Conventional methods of investing for the long haul are non-strategies riddled with inherent risk. In stark contrast, investing in quantified long-term trends is the simplest, most effective and practical solution for ensuring your hard-earned savings show above-average performance over the long haul.

    Joe Russo
    Publisher and Chief Market Strategist
    Guardian Revere Long-Term Trend Monitor

    May 10 4:14 PM | Link | Comment!
  • This Is It

    "Wow, holy shit Batman, what an April this has turned out to be. Between the Boston Marathon bombings, the blast in West Texas, the collapse in precious metals, and the stock market trading at all time highs, what else could possibly explode before month's end." -Superman

    Since I have been extremely hard at work preparing to launch an incredibly invaluable tool for long-term investors, I will be foregoing my typical weekly article with this brief and important communication instead.

    S.E.R.C.E

    Until we get back to our regular schedule, if you wish to get a sense for real-time issues that we consider important, you can keep up to date with this information free on our FB page or at the SERCE Group, which is Elliott Wave Technology's Social & Economically Relevant Curatorial Exchange.

    In addition to breaking news, the SERCE may include fast breaking real-time market updates such as the short-term Silver update posted on April 18 wherein we cited specific parameters for an imminent 3.66% move up to the $24.60 level.

    As EWT's SERCE duly recorded on April 27, we informed readers of the exchange that we had indeed captured the previously cited target of $24.60 that Friday.

    No, SERCE is not it.

    THIS IS IT. We will quickly wrap this up with a brief tease on our soon to launch solution that is guaranteed to blow your mind. The three most notable attributes of the new Long-Term Trend Monitor are:

    • It's simple, low maintenance, easy to follow, and a breeze to replicate
    • It's extraordinarily affordable (we're virtually giving this lethal weapon away)
    • And most importantly; It Works

    Finally, an honest to goodness Holy Grail for long-term Investors is here.

    Let's face reality here folks, the financial system and modern-day monetary order is riddled with flaws and uncertainty.

    Until we witness radical changes in the form of a new monetary order and the novel establishment of truly free markets, we have no other choice but to operate and manage a significant portion of our surplus savings and investments within the current set of existing constraints.

    Enter the ACTION-ALERT MONITOR: Exclusive S&P 500 Index and Precious Metals Focus

    In response to the extreme level of uncertainty and systemic coercion to invest in equities or suffer the anguish of being left behind, the forthcoming long-term investment monitor will also track and provide long-term alerts for Gold and Silver, which we highly recommend holding in physical form as a tangible component within every long-term investment portfolio.

    As such, long-term bullion investors of every stripe will soon have access to a quantified reliable means of acquiring relevant Action-Alerts that will provide them with a timely heads-up as to when it is most prudent to hedge their physical holdings by shorting the paper futures markets or by using inverse ETF's.

    Whether we like the current financial system or not, in order to effectively grow and protect our life savings, most of us maintain long-term exposure to stocks via index funds. Either play the game well or languish, it's that simple.

    For added assurance, we strongly suggest an essential 10-20% allocation of net worth toward physical gold and silver to balance the tangible asset component of our investment portfolios with the rest of our mandatory paper asset investments.

    The Absolute Best Assurance Money can Buy

    For absolute quantified unequivocal proof, check this long-term investment strategy's 21-year performance in staying on the right side of the S&P 500.

    If this is not the Holy Grail for timing long-term investment exposure to the S&P 500 index - then one shall never exist. The quantified mathematics and historical performance documentation tells the whole truth and nothing but.

    We will soon be making this invaluable elite membership solution available to select investors and adept money managers for an insanely low annual assurance premium. Desperate times call for Prudent Measures. As such, we sense it a noble duty to rise to the occasion and provide as much support as we possibly can to the largest number of people.

    You and everyone that you know who cares anything at all about their invested nest eggs and/or physical Gold & Silver holdings will virtually kill for the chance to become lifelong members of this elite club from the moment it launches.

    This is the real deal folks. We have a long-standing reputation to defend, and as such, we would never risk damaging that reputation with a promise of assurance that we were not 100% confident in delivering on.

    In closing, we will leave you with a couple of sample pages from the current report in waiting. Note that the pages shown may be reduced images. The actual pages within each report and Action-Alert are full size, crisp, and delivered to your inbox clear as a bell.

    Soon you will find yourself here, reading pages like these and getting timely advance notice of the next major Action-Alerts. This is it, the time is nigh - be there.

    Can't Wait?

    Mail us at info@elliottwavetechnology.com to inquire about qualifying for early access to the complete current report and immediately registering and activating your email address to the monitor's long-term Action-Alert list prior to the official launch.

    Until then,

    Trade Better/Invest Smarter

    (click to enlarge)

    Profitably Manage and Effectively Hedge your Physical Bullion

    (click to enlarge)

    Apr 28 7:15 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Metals Crushed, Slavery By Consent, And Slave For Profit

    Just ahead of the state and federal tax collectors unwelcome arrival on April 15, the financial markets had quite an eventful week. Between the growing geopolitical tensions in North Korea, the BOJ fueling flames of a global currency war, the globalist raid on the Cyprus Central Bank, and the push toward enacting new gun legislation in the US, there was no shortage of distractions.

    Today we will update the ongoing price action in silver and show you a very simple way to assure superior results from your long-term investment efforts despite our imposed and collectively consensual form of 21st bondage. Let's start by assessing the carnage in silver.

    BREAKING BAD

    Much has occurred since last week's update. The first item to note is the downside price captured upon silvers breach of the 26.23 target. Secondly, from an Elliott Wave perspective, upon the breach of 26.07, we have confirmation that a prospective (4) wave down at intermediate degree is still in the process of basing.

    (click to enlarge)

    Despite another bullish momentum divergence, Friday's downside price action has identified two additional downside targets. The first is 23.00, which is defended with trade and closes beneath the associated falling red trendline marked by the second "R" (for resistance) from the bottom.

    More ominously, the close beneath the double-bottom support boundary becomes a mega-bearish line of resistance defending a downside price target of 15.00.

    The weekly pit chart below illustrates clearly the cyclical bear market occurring in silver from its peak at 48.58 amidst a much longer-term secular bull market cycle.

    (click to enlarge)

    If the money-masters manage a takedown beneath 15.97, all bets are off for a mega-bullish (4) wave down. Weekly momentum is racing toward extreme levels of oversold against the past backdrop of bullish confirmation at the 48.58 print high. Continue reading the rest of this article here…

    Apr 13 6:02 PM | Link | Comment!
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  • Physical Gold is a staple insurance product to which everyone should allocate 10% - 20% of their net worth.http://on.fb.me/zgqLwC
    Mar 18, 2012
  • Perhaps the Gold dip should also grab the attention those underinvested or late to the game that have been waiting for better entry points.
    Mar 18, 2012
  • The consolidation in the Gold price has gotten my attention of late. http://on.fb.me/zVxMPz
    Mar 18, 2012
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