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    <title>Elliott Wave Technology's Instablog</title>
    <description>Joe Russo, is presently the publisher and chief market analyst for Elliott Wave Technology, and has been studying Elliott Wave Theory, and the Technical Analysis of Financial Markets since 1991.</description>
    <author>
      <name>Elliott Wave Technology</name>
    </author>
    <link>http://seekingalpha.com/user/509133/instablog</link>
    <item>
      <title>Should You Invest For The Long-Haul?</title>
      <link>http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/509133-elliott-wave-technology/1846381-should-you-invest-for-the-long-haul?source=feed</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">1846381</guid>
      <content>
        <![CDATA[<p><img src="http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/5/509133_13682163478280_0.jpg" align="left" hspace="6" vspace="6"  />Should you invest for the long haul? The answer to that question depends on what your definition of &quot;the long haul&quot; is.</p><p>You will need to determine what the long haul means to you after identifying yourself as a long-term investor. <strong>You are a long-term investor by default if you have an IRA or 401K.</strong> You will then need to establish your investment goals, management and exit strategies, and your tolerance for risk.</p><p>You can establish your risk tolerance by determining a maximum financial-loss threshold where you will protect and preserve the remaining balance of your long-haul investment capital.</p><p>Would you hold on to a long-term investment through multiple years of losing 20%, 30%, 40%, 80% or 99.9% of the price you paid for your investment? Where exactly would you draw the line and abandon ship?</p><p><em>(click to enlarge)</em><a href="http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/5/509133_13682163478280_1.jpg" rel="lightbox" rel="nofollow"><img src="http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/5/509133_13682163478280_1_thumb.jpg"  /></a></p><p>Your investment goals can be nearly limitless, from saving for a home, making a major purchase, securing a comfortable retirement or preserving the purchasing power of your life savings. The most basic goal in long-term investing is to make your money grow.</p><p>More importantly than merely increasing in value, your investment should at least keep pace with the cost of living. This goal is essential if you wish to preserve the purchasing power of your hard-earned savings.</p><p>Many investors define long-term investments as an account on the asset side of their balance sheet that represents the investments they intend to hold for more than a year. However, most long-term investors look at least five years down the road.</p><p>Long-term holdings may include but are not limited to stocks, bonds, mutual funds, exchange-traded funds, real estate, and cash.</p><p><img src="http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/5/509133_13682163478280_2.jpg"  /></p><p>Gold and silver have become increasingly popular assets since the beginning of the 21st century. <strong>These assets have been relatively profitable and are no longer reserved only for wealthy investors.</strong></p><p>Gold and silver bullion fall into the all-important tangible-asset side of the account ledger. Physical possession of these hard-money assets bears no counter-party risk. The long-term management and rebalancing of these tangible assets is similar to that of managing other long-term assets.</p><p>The Standard &amp; Poor's 500 is the quintessential performance benchmark for the vast majority of investors and professional money managers on the equity side of the account ledger.</p><p>Professional money managers strive to outperform the S&amp;P 500 year in and year out, decade after decade. <strong>The overwhelming majority of professional stock pickers who manage vast sums of client money repeatedly fail to match the long-term performance of the S&amp;P 500.</strong></p><p>It's no surprise that legions of individual investors place their long-term investment bets directly with the S&amp;P 500 index, given such influence. They do so via index funds and ETFs.</p><p>These investment vehicles closely mirror the performance of the S&amp;P 500 and carry far lower expense ratios than specialty or sector funds. <strong>Index funds and ETFs guarantee that the holders of these funds will outperform the majority of professional money managers.</strong></p><p>These funds sound like they can't fail except for one rather important caveat. How would you feel if the S&amp;P 500 lost 60% of its value over a two-year period, as it did from 2007 to 2009? Even though you may have outperformed the majority of professional money managers, how good are you going to feel about this accomplishment given the magnitude of losses showing in your long-term investment account?</p><p><strong>Long-Term Investing = Investing in Long-Term Trends</strong></p><p>Simplifying the concept of long-term investing in terms of investing in trends makes it clear that investing is not about the over-hyped non-strategy of &quot;buying and holding&quot; for the long haul. Long-term investment is about buying and holding on long-term uptrends as long as they last. You must then stand aside or sell short amid long-term downtrends as long as these trends last.</p><p>When it comes to long-term investments, I find it rather interesting that the mainstream strategy appears to rely exclusively on shifting bullish long exposure from one sector to the next.</p><p>Such logic presumably relies on the fallacy that a bull market always exists somewhere. However, finding these bull markets can be quite a challenge during poor economic periods.</p><blockquote class='quote'><p><i><u><a href="http://guardian-revere-trend-monitor.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow"><b>Click here</b></a></u></i> <i>for graphics that will assist you in answering critical questions to help you determine the suitability of a simple, effective solution for achieving your long-term investment goals.</i></p></blockquote><p>Indoctrinated by mass media only to buy, how will the average investor determine where to find the ever-present bull markets espoused? I suppose you can pay someone to do it for you and hope that the person you hire is not one of the professionals who fail to outperform the S&amp;P 500.</p><p>You rarely hear mainstream investment advisors making suggestions to &quot;stand aside&quot; or &quot;move-to-cash&quot; as a viable option for long-term investors. Forget about these advisors ever suggesting that selling the market short might be a viable long-term investment tactic; that would be blasphemy in their eyes.</p><p>What happens to this sector-rotation thesis when all markets move in the same direction as they did throughout the 2007 to 2009 period? <strong>It fails miserably, and everyone &quot;holding&quot; goes down with the ship.</strong> The only strategy guaranteed to work in this case is to be out of the market entirely or to be short if you are so inclined.</p><p><strong>Keep It Simple</strong></p><p>Why not just stick with the tried-and-true S&amp;P 500 index, but with the provision that you will only stay invested if the long-term trend is bullish<strong>.</strong> This strategy allows the vast majority of investors to remain invested instead of continually searching for elusive bull markets when the pickings are slim. The trend is your friend until it's not. Your objective should therefore be to stay with the trend until it changes.</p><p>This strategy does not require long-term investors to shuffle asset allocations and rebalance portfolios every time the wind blows. These investors have a clear objective and the tools to reach it. They also have the ability to step aside and take their chips off the table or sell the market short if the S&amp;P 500 shows early signs of a long-term downtrend.</p><p><strong>Timing the Markets vs. Trend Investing</strong></p><p>These strategies are theoretically distinct, although they are essentially the same in practice.</p><p>The conventional wisdom is that no one can time the markets. This is true if you define &quot;timing the market&quot; as getting in at the very bottom and getting out at the very top. Of course, this is impossible.</p><p>However, you can determine the right time to get in and get out by observing and reacting to the status of the long-term trend. <strong>This definition of timing the market exemplifies &quot;trend investing,&quot; which allows you to time the markets effectively and consistently.</strong></p><blockquote class='quote'><p><i><u><a href="http://guardian-revere-trend-monitor.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow"><b>Click here</b></a></u></i> <i>for graphics that will assist you in answering critical questions to help you determine the suitability of a simple, effective solution for achieving your long-term investment goals.</i></p></blockquote><p>Conventional methods of investing for the long haul are non-strategies riddled with inherent risk. In stark contrast, investing in quantified long-term trends is the simplest, most effective and practical solution for ensuring your hard-earned savings show above-average performance over the long haul.</p><p><b><i>Joe Russo</i></b></a><br> <i>Publisher and Chief Market Strategist</i><br> <a href="http://longtermtrendmonitor.elliottwavetechnology.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow"><i>Guardian</i> Revere Long-Term Trend Monitor</a></p>]]>
      </content>
      <pubDate>Fri, 10 May 2013 16:14:25 -0400</pubDate>
      <description>
        <![CDATA[<p><img src="http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/5/509133_13682163478280_0.jpg" align="left" hspace="6" vspace="6"  />Should you invest for the long haul? The answer to that question depends on what your definition of &quot;the long haul&quot; is.</p><p>You will need to determine what the long haul means to you after identifying yourself as a long-term investor. <strong>You are a long-term investor by default if you have an IRA or 401K.</strong> You will then need to establish your investment goals, management and exit strategies, and your tolerance for risk.</p><p>You can establish your risk tolerance by determining a maximum financial-loss threshold where you will protect and preserve the remaining balance of your long-haul investment capital.</p><p>Would you hold on to a long-term investment through multiple years of losing 20%, 30%, 40%, 80% or 99.9% of the price you paid for your investment? Where exactly would you draw the line and abandon ship?</p><p><em>(click to enlarge)</em><a href="http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/5/509133_13682163478280_1.jpg" rel="lightbox" rel="nofollow"><img src="http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/5/509133_13682163478280_1_thumb.jpg"  /></a></p><p>Your investment goals can be nearly limitless, from saving for a home, making a major purchase, securing a comfortable retirement or preserving the purchasing power of your life savings. The most basic goal in long-term investing is to make your money grow.</p><p>More importantly than merely increasing in value, your investment should at least keep pace with the cost of living. This goal is essential if you wish to preserve the purchasing power of your hard-earned savings.</p><p>Many investors define long-term investments as an account on the asset side of their balance sheet that represents the investments they intend to hold for more than a year. However, most long-term investors look at least five years down the road.</p><p>Long-term holdings may include but are not limited to stocks, bonds, mutual funds, exchange-traded funds, real estate, and cash.</p><p><img src="http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/5/509133_13682163478280_2.jpg"  /></p><p>Gold and silver have become increasingly popular assets since the beginning of the 21st century. <strong>These assets have been relatively profitable and are no longer reserved only for wealthy investors.</strong></p><p>Gold and silver bullion fall into the all-important tangible-asset side of the account ledger. Physical possession of these hard-money assets bears no counter-party risk. The long-term management and rebalancing of these tangible assets is similar to that of managing other long-term assets.</p><p>The Standard &amp; Poor's 500 is the quintessential performance benchmark for the vast majority of investors and professional money managers on the equity side of the account ledger.</p><p>Professional money managers strive to outperform the S&amp;P 500 year in and year out, decade after decade. <strong>The overwhelming majority of professional stock pickers who manage vast sums of client money repeatedly fail to match the long-term performance of the S&amp;P 500.</strong></p><p>It's no surprise that legions of individual investors place their long-term investment bets directly with the S&amp;P 500 index, given such influence. They do so via index funds and ETFs.</p><p>These investment vehicles closely mirror the performance of the S&amp;P 500 and carry far lower expense ratios than specialty or sector funds. <strong>Index funds and ETFs guarantee that the holders of these funds will outperform the majority of professional money managers.</strong></p><p>These funds sound like they can't fail except for one rather important caveat. How would you feel if the S&amp;P 500 lost 60% of its value over a two-year period, as it did from 2007 to 2009? Even though you may have outperformed the majority of professional money managers, how good are you going to feel about this accomplishment given the magnitude of losses showing in your long-term investment account?</p><p><strong>Long-Term Investing = Investing in Long-Term Trends</strong></p><p>Simplifying the concept of long-term investing in terms of investing in trends makes it clear that investing is not about the over-hyped non-strategy of &quot;buying and holding&quot; for the long haul. Long-term investment is about buying and holding on long-term uptrends as long as they last. You must then stand aside or sell short amid long-term downtrends as long as these trends last.</p><p>When it comes to long-term investments, I find it rather interesting that the mainstream strategy appears to rely exclusively on shifting bullish long exposure from one sector to the next.</p><p>Such logic presumably relies on the fallacy that a bull market always exists somewhere. However, finding these bull markets can be quite a challenge during poor economic periods.</p><blockquote class='quote'><p><i><u><a href="http://guardian-revere-trend-monitor.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow"><b>Click here</b></a></u></i> <i>for graphics that will assist you in answering critical questions to help you determine the suitability of a simple, effective solution for achieving your long-term investment goals.</i></p></blockquote><p>Indoctrinated by mass media only to buy, how will the average investor determine where to find the ever-present bull markets espoused? I suppose you can pay someone to do it for you and hope that the person you hire is not one of the professionals who fail to outperform the S&amp;P 500.</p><p>You rarely hear mainstream investment advisors making suggestions to &quot;stand aside&quot; or &quot;move-to-cash&quot; as a viable option for long-term investors. Forget about these advisors ever suggesting that selling the market short might be a viable long-term investment tactic; that would be blasphemy in their eyes.</p><p>What happens to this sector-rotation thesis when all markets move in the same direction as they did throughout the 2007 to 2009 period? <strong>It fails miserably, and everyone &quot;holding&quot; goes down with the ship.</strong> The only strategy guaranteed to work in this case is to be out of the market entirely or to be short if you are so inclined.</p><p><strong>Keep It Simple</strong></p><p>Why not just stick with the tried-and-true S&amp;P 500 index, but with the provision that you will only stay invested if the long-term trend is bullish<strong>.</strong> This strategy allows the vast majority of investors to remain invested instead of continually searching for elusive bull markets when the pickings are slim. The trend is your friend until it's not. Your objective should therefore be to stay with the trend until it changes.</p><p>This strategy does not require long-term investors to shuffle asset allocations and rebalance portfolios every time the wind blows. These investors have a clear objective and the tools to reach it. They also have the ability to step aside and take their chips off the table or sell the market short if the S&amp;P 500 shows early signs of a long-term downtrend.</p><p><strong>Timing the Markets vs. Trend Investing</strong></p><p>These strategies are theoretically distinct, although they are essentially the same in practice.</p><p>The conventional wisdom is that no one can time the markets. This is true if you define &quot;timing the market&quot; as getting in at the very bottom and getting out at the very top. Of course, this is impossible.</p><p>However, you can determine the right time to get in and get out by observing and reacting to the status of the long-term trend. <strong>This definition of timing the market exemplifies &quot;trend investing,&quot; which allows you to time the markets effectively and consistently.</strong></p><blockquote class='quote'><p><i><u><a href="http://guardian-revere-trend-monitor.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow"><b>Click here</b></a></u></i> <i>for graphics that will assist you in answering critical questions to help you determine the suitability of a simple, effective solution for achieving your long-term investment goals.</i></p></blockquote><p>Conventional methods of investing for the long haul are non-strategies riddled with inherent risk. In stark contrast, investing in quantified long-term trends is the simplest, most effective and practical solution for ensuring your hard-earned savings show above-average performance over the long haul.</p><p><b><i>Joe Russo</i></b></a><br> <i>Publisher and Chief Market Strategist</i><br> <a href="http://longtermtrendmonitor.elliottwavetechnology.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow"><i>Guardian</i> Revere Long-Term Trend Monitor</a></p>]]>
      </description>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>This Is It</title>
      <link>http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/509133-elliott-wave-technology/1803371-this-is-it?source=feed</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">1803371</guid>
      <content>
        <![CDATA[<p><img src="http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/4/509133_13671907948908_0.png" align="left" hspace="6" vspace="6"  /></p><p>&quot;Wow, holy shit Batman, what an April this has turned out to be. Between the Boston Marathon bombings, the blast in West Texas, the collapse in precious metals, and the stock market trading at all time highs, what else could possibly explode before month's end.&quot; -Superman</p><p>Since I have been extremely hard at work preparing to launch an incredibly invaluable tool for long-term investors, I will be foregoing my typical weekly article with this brief and important communication instead.</p><p><img src="http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/4/509133_13671907948908_1.png" align="middle" hspace="6" vspace="6"  /></p><p><strong>S.E.R.C.E</strong></p><p>Until we get back to our regular schedule, if you wish to get a sense for real-time issues that we consider important, you can keep up to date with this information free on our <a href="https://www.facebook.com/elliottwavetechnology" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">FB</a> page or at the SERCE Group, which is Elliott Wave Technology's <strong>S</strong>ocial &amp; <strong>E</strong>conomically <strong>R</strong>elevant <strong>C</strong>uratorial <strong>E</strong>xchange.</p><p>In addition to breaking news, the <a href="http://www.scoop.it/t/financial-markets-economy-trading-investing" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">SERCE</a> may include fast breaking real-time market updates such as the short-term Silver update posted on April 18 wherein we cited specific parameters for an imminent 3.66% move up to the $24.60 level.</p><p>As EWT's SERCE duly recorded on April 27, we informed readers of the exchange that we had indeed captured the previously cited target of $24.60 that Friday.</p><p>No, SERCE is not it.</p><p><strong>THIS IS IT.</strong> We will quickly wrap this up with a brief tease on our soon to launch solution that is guaranteed to blow your mind. The three most notable attributes of the new Long-Term Trend Monitor are:</p><ul><li>It's simple, low maintenance, easy to follow, and a breeze to replicate</li><li>It's <strong>extraordinarily affordable</strong> (we're virtually giving this lethal weapon away)</li><li>And most importantly; <strong>It Works</strong></li></ul><p><strong>Finally, an honest to goodness Holy Grail for long-term Investors is here.</strong></p><p>Let's face reality here folks, the financial system and modern-day monetary order is riddled with flaws and uncertainty.</p><p>Until we witness radical changes in the form of a new monetary order and the novel establishment of truly free markets, we have no other choice but to operate and manage a significant portion of our surplus savings and investments within the current set of existing constraints.</p><p><strong>Enter the ACTION-ALERT MONITOR: Exclusive S&amp;P 500 Index and Precious Metals Focus</strong></p><p>In response to the extreme level of uncertainty and systemic coercion to invest in equities or suffer the anguish of being left behind, the forthcoming long-term investment monitor will also track and provide long-term alerts for Gold and Silver, which we highly recommend holding in physical form as a tangible component within every long-term investment portfolio.</p><p>As such, long-term bullion investors of every stripe will soon have access to a quantified reliable means of acquiring relevant Action-Alerts that will provide them with a timely heads-up as to when it is most prudent to hedge their physical holdings by shorting the paper futures markets or by using inverse ETF's.</p><p>Whether we like the current financial system or not, in order to effectively grow and protect our life savings, most of us maintain long-term exposure to stocks via index funds. Either play the game well or languish, it's that simple.</p><p>For added assurance, we strongly suggest an essential 10-20% allocation of net worth toward physical <a href="http://prudentmeasures.blogspot.com/p/gold-silver.html" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">gold and silver</a> to balance the <a href="http://prudentmeasures.blogspot.com/p/bonus.html" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">tangible asset</a> component of our investment portfolios with the rest of our mandatory paper asset investments.</p><p><strong>The Absolute Best Assurance Money can Buy</strong></p><p>For absolute quantified unequivocal proof, <a href="http://www.elliottwavetechnology.com/2013/02/timing-markets.html" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">check this</a> long-term investment strategy's 21-year performance in staying on the right side of the S&amp;P 500.</p><p>If this is not the Holy Grail for timing long-term investment exposure to the S&amp;P 500 index - then one shall never exist. <strong>The quantified mathematics and historical performance documentation tells the whole truth and nothing but.</strong></p><p>We will soon be making this invaluable elite membership solution available to select investors and adept money managers for an insanely low annual assurance premium. Desperate times call for <a href="http://prudentmeasures.elliottwavetechnology.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Prudent Measures</a>. As such, we sense it a noble duty to rise to the occasion and provide as much support as we possibly can to the largest number of people.</p><p>You and everyone that you know who cares anything at all about their invested nest eggs and/or physical Gold &amp; Silver holdings will virtually kill for the chance to become lifelong members of this elite club from the moment it launches.</p><p>This is the real deal folks. We have a long-standing reputation to defend, and as such, we would never risk damaging that reputation with a promise of assurance that we were not 100% confident in delivering on.</p><p>In closing, we will leave you with a couple of sample pages from the current report in waiting. Note that the pages shown may be reduced images. The actual pages within each report and Action-Alert are full size, crisp, and delivered to your inbox clear as a bell.</p><p>Soon you will find yourself here, reading pages like these and getting timely advance notice of the next major Action-Alerts. <strong>This is it, the time is nigh - be there</strong>.</p><p><strong>Can't Wait?</strong></p><blockquote class='quote'><p>Mail us at info@elliottwavetechnology.com to inquire about qualifying for early access to the complete current report and immediately registering and activating your email address to the monitor's long-term Action-Alert list prior to the official launch.</p></blockquote><p>Until then,</p><p><strong>Trade Better/Invest Smarter</strong></p><p><em>(click to enlarge)</em><a href="http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/4/509133_13671907948908_2.png" rel="lightbox" rel="nofollow"><img src="http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/4/509133_13671907948908_2_thumb.jpg"  /></a></p><p><strong>Profitably Manage and Effectively Hedge your Physical Bullion</strong></p><p><em>(click to enlarge)</em><a href="http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/4/509133_13671907948908_3.png" rel="lightbox" rel="nofollow"><img src="http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/4/509133_13671907948908_3_thumb.jpg"  /></a></p>]]>
      </content>
      <pubDate>Sun, 28 Apr 2013 19:15:45 -0400</pubDate>
      <description>
        <![CDATA[<p><img src="http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/4/509133_13671907948908_0.png" align="left" hspace="6" vspace="6"  /></p><p>&quot;Wow, holy shit Batman, what an April this has turned out to be. Between the Boston Marathon bombings, the blast in West Texas, the collapse in precious metals, and the stock market trading at all time highs, what else could possibly explode before month's end.&quot; -Superman</p><p>Since I have been extremely hard at work preparing to launch an incredibly invaluable tool for long-term investors, I will be foregoing my typical weekly article with this brief and important communication instead.</p><p><img src="http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/4/509133_13671907948908_1.png" align="middle" hspace="6" vspace="6"  /></p><p><strong>S.E.R.C.E</strong></p><p>Until we get back to our regular schedule, if you wish to get a sense for real-time issues that we consider important, you can keep up to date with this information free on our <a href="https://www.facebook.com/elliottwavetechnology" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">FB</a> page or at the SERCE Group, which is Elliott Wave Technology's <strong>S</strong>ocial &amp; <strong>E</strong>conomically <strong>R</strong>elevant <strong>C</strong>uratorial <strong>E</strong>xchange.</p><p>In addition to breaking news, the <a href="http://www.scoop.it/t/financial-markets-economy-trading-investing" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">SERCE</a> may include fast breaking real-time market updates such as the short-term Silver update posted on April 18 wherein we cited specific parameters for an imminent 3.66% move up to the $24.60 level.</p><p>As EWT's SERCE duly recorded on April 27, we informed readers of the exchange that we had indeed captured the previously cited target of $24.60 that Friday.</p><p>No, SERCE is not it.</p><p><strong>THIS IS IT.</strong> We will quickly wrap this up with a brief tease on our soon to launch solution that is guaranteed to blow your mind. The three most notable attributes of the new Long-Term Trend Monitor are:</p><ul><li>It's simple, low maintenance, easy to follow, and a breeze to replicate</li><li>It's <strong>extraordinarily affordable</strong> (we're virtually giving this lethal weapon away)</li><li>And most importantly; <strong>It Works</strong></li></ul><p><strong>Finally, an honest to goodness Holy Grail for long-term Investors is here.</strong></p><p>Let's face reality here folks, the financial system and modern-day monetary order is riddled with flaws and uncertainty.</p><p>Until we witness radical changes in the form of a new monetary order and the novel establishment of truly free markets, we have no other choice but to operate and manage a significant portion of our surplus savings and investments within the current set of existing constraints.</p><p><strong>Enter the ACTION-ALERT MONITOR: Exclusive S&amp;P 500 Index and Precious Metals Focus</strong></p><p>In response to the extreme level of uncertainty and systemic coercion to invest in equities or suffer the anguish of being left behind, the forthcoming long-term investment monitor will also track and provide long-term alerts for Gold and Silver, which we highly recommend holding in physical form as a tangible component within every long-term investment portfolio.</p><p>As such, long-term bullion investors of every stripe will soon have access to a quantified reliable means of acquiring relevant Action-Alerts that will provide them with a timely heads-up as to when it is most prudent to hedge their physical holdings by shorting the paper futures markets or by using inverse ETF's.</p><p>Whether we like the current financial system or not, in order to effectively grow and protect our life savings, most of us maintain long-term exposure to stocks via index funds. Either play the game well or languish, it's that simple.</p><p>For added assurance, we strongly suggest an essential 10-20% allocation of net worth toward physical <a href="http://prudentmeasures.blogspot.com/p/gold-silver.html" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">gold and silver</a> to balance the <a href="http://prudentmeasures.blogspot.com/p/bonus.html" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">tangible asset</a> component of our investment portfolios with the rest of our mandatory paper asset investments.</p><p><strong>The Absolute Best Assurance Money can Buy</strong></p><p>For absolute quantified unequivocal proof, <a href="http://www.elliottwavetechnology.com/2013/02/timing-markets.html" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">check this</a> long-term investment strategy's 21-year performance in staying on the right side of the S&amp;P 500.</p><p>If this is not the Holy Grail for timing long-term investment exposure to the S&amp;P 500 index - then one shall never exist. <strong>The quantified mathematics and historical performance documentation tells the whole truth and nothing but.</strong></p><p>We will soon be making this invaluable elite membership solution available to select investors and adept money managers for an insanely low annual assurance premium. Desperate times call for <a href="http://prudentmeasures.elliottwavetechnology.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Prudent Measures</a>. As such, we sense it a noble duty to rise to the occasion and provide as much support as we possibly can to the largest number of people.</p><p>You and everyone that you know who cares anything at all about their invested nest eggs and/or physical Gold &amp; Silver holdings will virtually kill for the chance to become lifelong members of this elite club from the moment it launches.</p><p>This is the real deal folks. We have a long-standing reputation to defend, and as such, we would never risk damaging that reputation with a promise of assurance that we were not 100% confident in delivering on.</p><p>In closing, we will leave you with a couple of sample pages from the current report in waiting. Note that the pages shown may be reduced images. The actual pages within each report and Action-Alert are full size, crisp, and delivered to your inbox clear as a bell.</p><p>Soon you will find yourself here, reading pages like these and getting timely advance notice of the next major Action-Alerts. <strong>This is it, the time is nigh - be there</strong>.</p><p><strong>Can't Wait?</strong></p><blockquote class='quote'><p>Mail us at info@elliottwavetechnology.com to inquire about qualifying for early access to the complete current report and immediately registering and activating your email address to the monitor's long-term Action-Alert list prior to the official launch.</p></blockquote><p>Until then,</p><p><strong>Trade Better/Invest Smarter</strong></p><p><em>(click to enlarge)</em><a href="http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/4/509133_13671907948908_2.png" rel="lightbox" rel="nofollow"><img src="http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/4/509133_13671907948908_2_thumb.jpg"  /></a></p><p><strong>Profitably Manage and Effectively Hedge your Physical Bullion</strong></p><p><em>(click to enlarge)</em><a href="http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/4/509133_13671907948908_3.png" rel="lightbox" rel="nofollow"><img src="http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/4/509133_13671907948908_3_thumb.jpg"  /></a></p>]]>
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      <title>Metals Crushed, Slavery By Consent, And Slave For Profit</title>
      <link>http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/509133-elliott-wave-technology/1753051-metals-crushed-slavery-by-consent-and-slave-for-profit?source=feed</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">1753051</guid>
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        <![CDATA[<p><img src="http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/4/13/509133-13658901942325616-Elliott-Wave-Technology.png" align="left" hspace="6" vspace="6" width="175" height="116" /> Just ahead of the state and federal tax collectors unwelcome arrival on April 15, the financial markets had quite an eventful week. Between the growing geopolitical tensions in North Korea, the BOJ fueling flames of a global currency war, the globalist raid on the Cyprus Central Bank, and the push toward enacting new gun legislation in the US, there was no shortage of distractions.</p><p>Today we will update the ongoing price action in silver and show you a very simple way to assure superior results from your long-term investment efforts despite our imposed and collectively consensual form of 21st bondage. Let's start by assessing the carnage in silver.</p><p><b>BREAKING BAD</b></p><p>Much has occurred since <a href="http://www.elliottwavetechnology.com/2013/04/tangled-web-suppresses-gold-silver.html" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">last week's update</a>. The first item to note is the downside price captured upon silvers breach of the 26.23 target. Secondly, from an Elliott Wave perspective, upon the breach of 26.07, we have confirmation that a prospective (4) wave down at intermediate degree is still in the process of basing.</p><p><em>(click to enlarge)<a href="http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/4/13/509133-13658903679613178-Elliott-Wave-Technology_origin.png" rel="lightbox" rel="nofollow"><img src="http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/4/13/509133-13658903679613178-Elliott-Wave-Technology.png" align="middle" hspace="6" vspace="6" width="450" height="338" /></a></em></p><p>Despite another bullish momentum divergence, Friday's downside price action has identified two additional downside targets. The first is 23.00, which is defended with trade and closes beneath the associated falling red trendline marked by the second &quot;R&quot; (for resistance) from the bottom.</p><p>More ominously, the close beneath the double-bottom support boundary becomes a mega-bearish line of resistance defending a downside price target of 15.00.</p><p>The weekly pit chart below illustrates clearly the cyclical bear market occurring in silver from its peak at 48.58 amidst a much longer-term secular bull market cycle.</p><p><em>(click to enlarge)<a href="http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/4/13/509133-1365890437272776-Elliott-Wave-Technology_origin.png" rel="lightbox" rel="nofollow"><img src="http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/4/13/509133-1365890437272776-Elliott-Wave-Technology.png" align="middle" hspace="6" vspace="6" width="450" height="338" /></a></em></p><p>If the money-masters manage a takedown beneath 15.97, all bets are off for a mega-bullish (4) wave down. Weekly momentum is racing toward extreme levels of oversold against the past backdrop of bullish confirmation at the 48.58 print high. <a href="http://www.elliottwavetechnology.com/2013/04/metals-crushed-slavery-by-consent-slave.html" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Continue reading the rest of this article here&hellip;</a></p>]]>
      </content>
      <pubDate>Sat, 13 Apr 2013 18:02:22 -0400</pubDate>
      <description>
        <![CDATA[<p><img src="http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/4/13/509133-13658901942325616-Elliott-Wave-Technology.png" align="left" hspace="6" vspace="6" width="175" height="116" /> Just ahead of the state and federal tax collectors unwelcome arrival on April 15, the financial markets had quite an eventful week. Between the growing geopolitical tensions in North Korea, the BOJ fueling flames of a global currency war, the globalist raid on the Cyprus Central Bank, and the push toward enacting new gun legislation in the US, there was no shortage of distractions.</p><p>Today we will update the ongoing price action in silver and show you a very simple way to assure superior results from your long-term investment efforts despite our imposed and collectively consensual form of 21st bondage. Let's start by assessing the carnage in silver.</p><p><b>BREAKING BAD</b></p><p>Much has occurred since <a href="http://www.elliottwavetechnology.com/2013/04/tangled-web-suppresses-gold-silver.html" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">last week's update</a>. The first item to note is the downside price captured upon silvers breach of the 26.23 target. Secondly, from an Elliott Wave perspective, upon the breach of 26.07, we have confirmation that a prospective (4) wave down at intermediate degree is still in the process of basing.</p><p><em>(click to enlarge)<a href="http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/4/13/509133-13658903679613178-Elliott-Wave-Technology_origin.png" rel="lightbox" rel="nofollow"><img src="http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/4/13/509133-13658903679613178-Elliott-Wave-Technology.png" align="middle" hspace="6" vspace="6" width="450" height="338" /></a></em></p><p>Despite another bullish momentum divergence, Friday's downside price action has identified two additional downside targets. The first is 23.00, which is defended with trade and closes beneath the associated falling red trendline marked by the second &quot;R&quot; (for resistance) from the bottom.</p><p>More ominously, the close beneath the double-bottom support boundary becomes a mega-bearish line of resistance defending a downside price target of 15.00.</p><p>The weekly pit chart below illustrates clearly the cyclical bear market occurring in silver from its peak at 48.58 amidst a much longer-term secular bull market cycle.</p><p><em>(click to enlarge)<a href="http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/4/13/509133-1365890437272776-Elliott-Wave-Technology_origin.png" rel="lightbox" rel="nofollow"><img src="http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/4/13/509133-1365890437272776-Elliott-Wave-Technology.png" align="middle" hspace="6" vspace="6" width="450" height="338" /></a></em></p><p>If the money-masters manage a takedown beneath 15.97, all bets are off for a mega-bullish (4) wave down. Weekly momentum is racing toward extreme levels of oversold against the past backdrop of bullish confirmation at the 48.58 print high. <a href="http://www.elliottwavetechnology.com/2013/04/metals-crushed-slavery-by-consent-slave.html" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Continue reading the rest of this article here&hellip;</a></p>]]>
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      <title>Tangled Web Suppresses Gold &amp; Silver</title>
      <link>http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/509133-elliott-wave-technology/1725981-tangled-web-suppresses-gold-silver?source=feed</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">1725981</guid>
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        <![CDATA[<p><em>(click to enlarge)</em><a href="http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/4/5/saupload_Flodden-Field.png" rel="lightbox" rel="nofollow"><img src="http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/4/5/saupload_Flodden-Field_thumb1.png" /></a> The famous quote, &quot;Oh, what a tangled web we weave when we practice to deceive&quot; often attributed to Shakespeare, was written by Sir Walter Scott. The expression found in his 1806 literary work, Marmion: A Tale of Flodden Field, centers on the love story of two English nobles Clara and De Wilton, and Marmion, who planned to destroy their love to acquire their land.</p><p>This epic poem is about the Battle of Flodden Field (1513), a conflict between the Kingdom of England and the Kingdom of Scotland. It was an English victory and the largest battle ever fought between the two kingdoms. At the conclusion of the poem, Marmion dies on the battlefield, while De Wilton displays heroism, regains his honor, retrieves his lands, and marries Clara.</p><p><em>(click to enlarge)</em><a href="http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/4/5/saupload_Tangled-Web-of-Deceit.png" rel="lightbox" rel="nofollow"><img src="http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/4/5/saupload_Tangled-Web-of-Deceit_thumb1.png" /></a></p><p>The above chart displays the ongoing twisted and tangled effects of an epic battle that is in a league of its own, the age-old battle between statist central bankers, Wall Street, politician's, and the ruling class vs. the global proletariat.</p><p>Interwoven on this chart are the data points for five markets, which span from 1995 to present. Listed on the right axis are today's prices for each market. From the highest nominal value to the lowest, the chart displays:</p><p><img src="http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/4/5/saupload_Data-List.png" /></p><p>The global working-class hopes that in the end, like De Wilton and Clara, they too shall display heroism, regain their honor, retrieve their freedom, and retain for themselves the fruits of their hard-earned labor.</p><p>Despite the blatant failures and attendant frailty of the Marmion-like ruling class, a working-class victory is a long way off as statists continue to weave and impose their cunning dictates without shame, while the spellbound proletariat remains mostly dazzled or stunned by bread and circus.</p><p>For the balance of this article including an update on the silver price, please visit <a href="http://www.elliottwavetechnology.com/2013/04/tangled-web-suppresses-gold-silver.html" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Elliott Wave Technology</a>.</p>]]>
      </content>
      <pubDate>Fri, 05 Apr 2013 14:00:26 -0400</pubDate>
      <description>
        <![CDATA[<p><em>(click to enlarge)</em><a href="http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/4/5/saupload_Flodden-Field.png" rel="lightbox" rel="nofollow"><img src="http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/4/5/saupload_Flodden-Field_thumb1.png" /></a> The famous quote, &quot;Oh, what a tangled web we weave when we practice to deceive&quot; often attributed to Shakespeare, was written by Sir Walter Scott. The expression found in his 1806 literary work, Marmion: A Tale of Flodden Field, centers on the love story of two English nobles Clara and De Wilton, and Marmion, who planned to destroy their love to acquire their land.</p><p>This epic poem is about the Battle of Flodden Field (1513), a conflict between the Kingdom of England and the Kingdom of Scotland. It was an English victory and the largest battle ever fought between the two kingdoms. At the conclusion of the poem, Marmion dies on the battlefield, while De Wilton displays heroism, regains his honor, retrieves his lands, and marries Clara.</p><p><em>(click to enlarge)</em><a href="http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/4/5/saupload_Tangled-Web-of-Deceit.png" rel="lightbox" rel="nofollow"><img src="http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/4/5/saupload_Tangled-Web-of-Deceit_thumb1.png" /></a></p><p>The above chart displays the ongoing twisted and tangled effects of an epic battle that is in a league of its own, the age-old battle between statist central bankers, Wall Street, politician's, and the ruling class vs. the global proletariat.</p><p>Interwoven on this chart are the data points for five markets, which span from 1995 to present. Listed on the right axis are today's prices for each market. From the highest nominal value to the lowest, the chart displays:</p><p><img src="http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/4/5/saupload_Data-List.png" /></p><p>The global working-class hopes that in the end, like De Wilton and Clara, they too shall display heroism, regain their honor, retrieve their freedom, and retain for themselves the fruits of their hard-earned labor.</p><p>Despite the blatant failures and attendant frailty of the Marmion-like ruling class, a working-class victory is a long way off as statists continue to weave and impose their cunning dictates without shame, while the spellbound proletariat remains mostly dazzled or stunned by bread and circus.</p><p>For the balance of this article including an update on the silver price, please visit <a href="http://www.elliottwavetechnology.com/2013/04/tangled-web-suppresses-gold-silver.html" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Elliott Wave Technology</a>.</p>]]>
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      <title>The Fiat-Cliff</title>
      <link>http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/509133-elliott-wave-technology/1680691-the-fiat-cliff?source=feed</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">1680691</guid>
      <content>
        <![CDATA[<p><img src="http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/3/22/509133-13639897115040958-Elliott-Wave-Technology.png" align="left" alt="Fiat Cliff" hspace="6" vspace="6" width="122" height="92" /></p><p>I would like to start this piece by recommending a rather thorough and viable chart study of the US dollar by an analyst writing under the pseudonym Rambus, titled <a href="http://www.safehaven.com/article/29196/dollar-bears-prepare-to-hibernate" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Dollar Bears Prepare to Hibernate</a>. Rambus has produced some excellent charts in this piece along with sound analysis, and in my view, provided readers with valuable information and insights.</p><p>It is my hope that Rambus and the readership at large will not mind if I attempt to add another layer to his cogent work.</p><p>Albeit spawning from a relatively recent and still fragile signal, at present, my work also reveals a long-term bullish bias for the dollar and a contrasting bearish bias for gold. I will endeavor to add value to the good work of Rambus using a monthly bar chart going back to 1971.</p><p><em>(click to enlarge)<a href="http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/3/22/509133-1363989776597642-Elliott-Wave-Technology_origin.png" rel="lightbox" rel="nofollow"><img src="http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/3/22/509133-1363989776597642-Elliott-Wave-Technology.png" hspace="6" vspace="6" width="470" height="357" /></a></em></p><p><a href="http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/3/22/509133-13639897392452598-Elliott-Wave-Technology_origin.png" rel="lightbox" rel="nofollow"><em>(click to enlarge)</em></a></p><p>The first thing I would add relative to the big-picture monthly chart from 1981 presented by Rambus, rests specifically with regard to the H&amp;S top mentioned. That peak occurred in 2001, and more importantly, the bearish neckline associated with it, which rests near the 80.39 level was absent from the observations he shared.</p><p>This is a critical FIAT-CLIFF bearish (neck) line in the sand, which the dollar has been struggling seriously with since July of 2007. The Dollar has traded above and below the FIAT-CLIFF for nearly six years. A wide coiling pattern akin to a rather sizable flag pattern has formed, which in this case, would imply the presence of a continuation pattern with better than fair odds for an eventual bearish resolution.</p><p>I have replicated Rambus's 4-point fractal sequence and boxed point 4 on the left, and point 1 on the right to illustrate the genesis of this major neckline. This is a line very much worth keeping a sharp eye on.</p><p>As noted in the lower right, the neckline drawn from these two points governs the active defense or suspension status of a downside price target in the low forties, which if achieved, would result in a 50% haircut from current levels.</p><p><b>Risk of Ruin</b></p><p>The final layer I wish to share surrounds what I refer to as a &quot;risk of ruin&quot; trajectory. When breached, risk-of-ruin-trajectories calibrate downside price targets, which for all intent and purpose virtually destroy 100% of all existing value.</p><p>Spawning from the pivot low in the late 70's and the first point labeled 1 in the late 80's, the thin rising trendline moving upward and to the right, ending just above the prayerful Ben, identifies a clear risk of ruin trajectory.</p><p>So long as the dollar maintains trade and closes beneath this rising trajectory, complete obliteration of the fiat currency to the tune of 90% from current levels, is a defended and working target. The FIAT-CLIFF line simply adds a level of immediate drama associated with the first 40% of a cataclysmic 90% wipeout.</p><p>Note how the risk of ruin trajectory twice rejected the dollars attempt to break above it upon twice approaching the rising resistance rail associated with right shoulder of the FIAT-CLIFF head and shoulder pattern.</p><p>Having said all that, until the shorter-term price action dictates otherwise, we remain bullish the dollar right alongside Rambus.</p><p>In wrapping up this view from 50,000 feet, each of us should hope and pray along with Ben for a sustainable rally to the 105 target, which would place the dollar-trade above the implied risk of ruin trajectory.</p><p>If such a bullish feat occurs, to remove the risk of ruin entirely, the dollar must never register a monthly close beneath that rising trajectory for if it does, the risk of ruin is back in play.</p><p><b>The Elliott Wave Take</b></p><p>Below is a long-term chart similar to the one Rambus used from 1981. I have held to this wave count (as has the dollar) for nearly a decade. This does not imply that I will be right in the end, it simply proves that I have been right thus far.</p><p><em>(click to enlarge)<a href="http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/3/22/509133-13639898631866-Elliott-Wave-Technology_origin.png" rel="lightbox" rel="nofollow"><img src="http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/3/22/509133-13639898631866-Elliott-Wave-Technology.png" hspace="6" vspace="6" width="470" height="355" /></a></em></p><p><a href="http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/3/22/509133-13639898390287802-Elliott-Wave-Technology_origin.png" rel="lightbox" rel="nofollow"><em>(click to enlarge)</em></a></p><p>To fully appreciate our unconventional application of the theory, specifically as it relates to the above chart, please refer to &quot;<a href="http://www.elliottwavetechnology.com/2012/06/us-dollar-wave-counts-flight-to-safety.html" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">US Dollar: Wave Counts, Flight-to-Safety</a>&quot; penned in June of last year.</p><p>The following is brief excerpt from the above link:</p><blockquote class='quote'><p><i>As graphically inferred by the articles introductory image, there is no doubt whatsoever that since its general inception, the US dollar remains by politically exploitive design, enmeshed in a long-term secular decline toward oblivion.</i></p><p><i>The end game will play out like those of all other fiat currency throughout humankind's history, which shall of course lead to an outright failure and the existential necessity for the country (or world) inevitably to manufacture and adopt a suitable replacement.</i></p></blockquote><p>Until next time, <strong>Trade Better/Invest Smarter</strong></p><hr><p><sub>About the Author</sub></p><p><sub>Since the dot.com bubble, 911, and the 2002 market crash, Elliott Wave Technology's mission remains the delivery of valuable solutions-based services that empower clients to execute successful trading and investment decisions in all market environments.</sub></p><p><sub>Joe Russo is an entrepreneurial publisher and market analyst providing digital online media solutions designed to assist traders and investors in prudently and profitably navigating their exposure to the financial markets.</sub></p><p><sub>Since the official launch of his</sub> <a href="http://www.elliottwavetechnology.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow"><sub>Elliott Wave Technology</sub></a> <sub>website in 2005, he has established an outstanding record of accomplishment, including but not limited to,</sub> <sub>&hellip;</sub></p><ul><li><sub>In 2005, he elicited a major long-term wealth producing nugget of guidance in suggesting strongly that members give serious consideration to apportioning 10%-20% of their net worth toward the physical acquisition of Gold (@ $400.) and Silver (@ $6.00).</sub></li><li><sub>In 2006, the (</sub><a href="http://www.mta.org/eweb/StartPage.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow"><sub>MTA</sub></a><sub>) Market Technicians Association featured his article &quot;</sub><a href="http://www.safehaven.com/article/6308/scaling-perceptions-amid-the-global-equity-boom" target="_blank" rel="nofollow"><sub>Scaling Perceptions amid the Global Equity Boom</sub></a><sub>&quot; in their industry newsletter, &quot;Technically Speaking.&quot;</sub></li><li><sub>On May 6 of 2007, five months prior to the market top in 2007, though still bullish at that time, he publicly warned long-term investors not to be fooled again, in &quot;</sub><a href="http://www.safehaven.com/article/7496/bullish-like-theres-no-tomorrow" target="_blank" rel="nofollow"><sub>Bullish Like There's No Tomorrow</sub></a><sub>.&quot;</sub></li><li><sub>On March 10 of 2008, with another 48% of downside remaining to the bottom of the great bear market of 2008-2009, in &quot;</sub><a href="http://www.linkedin.com/redir/redirect?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww%2Esafehaven%2Ecom%2Farticle%2F9661%2Fv-for-vendetta&amp;urlhash=amDd&amp;trk=prof-project-name-link" target="_blank" rel="nofollow"><sub>V-for Vendetta</sub></a><sub>,&quot; using the Wilshire 5000 as proxy, he publicly laid out the case for the depth and amplitude of the unfolding bear market, which marked terminal to a rather nice long-run in equity values.</sub></li><li><sub>Working extensively with EasyLanguage&reg; programmer George Pruitt in 2010 and 2011, the author of &quot;</sub><a href="http://www.linkedin.com/redir/redirect?url=http%3A%2F%2Fcdn%2Epreterhuman%2Enet%2Ftexts%2Ffinance_and_marketing%2Fstock_market%2FBuilding%2520Winning%2520Trading%2520Systems%2520With%2520Tradestation%2520-%2520Wiley%2Epdf&amp;urlhash=Zh7_&amp;trk=prof-publication-title-link" target="_blank" rel="nofollow"><sub>Building Winning Trading Systems with TradeStation</sub></a><sub>,&quot; he assisted in the development of several proprietary trading systems.</sub></li><li><sub>On February 11, 2011, he publicly made available his call for a</sub> <a href="http://www.linkedin.com/redir/redirect?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww%2Eelliottwavetechnology%2Ecom%2F2011%2F02%2Fbonds-set-to-rally-finding-bottom-by%2Ehtml&amp;urlhash=GHZ6&amp;trk=prof-publication-title-link" target="_blank" rel="nofollow"><sub>key bottom in the long bond</sub></a> <sub>at 117 '3/32. Within a year and half from his call, the long bond rallied in excess of 30% to new all time highs in July of 2012.</sub></li><li><sub>For the benefit of members and his general readership, he responded to widespread levels of economic and financial uncertainty in the development of</sub> <a href="http://www.linkedin.com/redir/redirect?url=http%3A%2F%2Fprudentmeasures%2Eelliottwavetechnology%2Ecom%2F&amp;urlhash=nVmR&amp;trk=prof-project-name-link" target="_blank" rel="nofollow"><sub>Prudent Measures</sub></a> <sub>in 2012.</sub></li><li><sub>He publicly warned of a</sub> <a href="http://www.linkedin.com/redir/redirect?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww%2Eelliottwavetechnology%2Ecom%2F2012%2F10%2Fapple-and-dow-threaten-major-cyclical%2Ehtml&amp;urlhash=68KT&amp;trk=prof-project-name-link" target="_blank" rel="nofollow"><sub>major top in Apple</sub></a> <sub>on October 26, 2012 in the very early stages of a 40% decline from its all time high.</sub></li></ul><p><strong>Disclosure: </strong>I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.</p>]]>
      </content>
      <pubDate>Fri, 22 Mar 2013 18:13:08 -0400</pubDate>
      <description>
        <![CDATA[<p><img src="http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/3/22/509133-13639897115040958-Elliott-Wave-Technology.png" align="left" alt="Fiat Cliff" hspace="6" vspace="6" width="122" height="92" /></p><p>I would like to start this piece by recommending a rather thorough and viable chart study of the US dollar by an analyst writing under the pseudonym Rambus, titled <a href="http://www.safehaven.com/article/29196/dollar-bears-prepare-to-hibernate" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Dollar Bears Prepare to Hibernate</a>. Rambus has produced some excellent charts in this piece along with sound analysis, and in my view, provided readers with valuable information and insights.</p><p>It is my hope that Rambus and the readership at large will not mind if I attempt to add another layer to his cogent work.</p><p>Albeit spawning from a relatively recent and still fragile signal, at present, my work also reveals a long-term bullish bias for the dollar and a contrasting bearish bias for gold. I will endeavor to add value to the good work of Rambus using a monthly bar chart going back to 1971.</p><p><em>(click to enlarge)<a href="http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/3/22/509133-1363989776597642-Elliott-Wave-Technology_origin.png" rel="lightbox" rel="nofollow"><img src="http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/3/22/509133-1363989776597642-Elliott-Wave-Technology.png" hspace="6" vspace="6" width="470" height="357" /></a></em></p><p><a href="http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/3/22/509133-13639897392452598-Elliott-Wave-Technology_origin.png" rel="lightbox" rel="nofollow"><em>(click to enlarge)</em></a></p><p>The first thing I would add relative to the big-picture monthly chart from 1981 presented by Rambus, rests specifically with regard to the H&amp;S top mentioned. That peak occurred in 2001, and more importantly, the bearish neckline associated with it, which rests near the 80.39 level was absent from the observations he shared.</p><p>This is a critical FIAT-CLIFF bearish (neck) line in the sand, which the dollar has been struggling seriously with since July of 2007. The Dollar has traded above and below the FIAT-CLIFF for nearly six years. A wide coiling pattern akin to a rather sizable flag pattern has formed, which in this case, would imply the presence of a continuation pattern with better than fair odds for an eventual bearish resolution.</p><p>I have replicated Rambus's 4-point fractal sequence and boxed point 4 on the left, and point 1 on the right to illustrate the genesis of this major neckline. This is a line very much worth keeping a sharp eye on.</p><p>As noted in the lower right, the neckline drawn from these two points governs the active defense or suspension status of a downside price target in the low forties, which if achieved, would result in a 50% haircut from current levels.</p><p><b>Risk of Ruin</b></p><p>The final layer I wish to share surrounds what I refer to as a &quot;risk of ruin&quot; trajectory. When breached, risk-of-ruin-trajectories calibrate downside price targets, which for all intent and purpose virtually destroy 100% of all existing value.</p><p>Spawning from the pivot low in the late 70's and the first point labeled 1 in the late 80's, the thin rising trendline moving upward and to the right, ending just above the prayerful Ben, identifies a clear risk of ruin trajectory.</p><p>So long as the dollar maintains trade and closes beneath this rising trajectory, complete obliteration of the fiat currency to the tune of 90% from current levels, is a defended and working target. The FIAT-CLIFF line simply adds a level of immediate drama associated with the first 40% of a cataclysmic 90% wipeout.</p><p>Note how the risk of ruin trajectory twice rejected the dollars attempt to break above it upon twice approaching the rising resistance rail associated with right shoulder of the FIAT-CLIFF head and shoulder pattern.</p><p>Having said all that, until the shorter-term price action dictates otherwise, we remain bullish the dollar right alongside Rambus.</p><p>In wrapping up this view from 50,000 feet, each of us should hope and pray along with Ben for a sustainable rally to the 105 target, which would place the dollar-trade above the implied risk of ruin trajectory.</p><p>If such a bullish feat occurs, to remove the risk of ruin entirely, the dollar must never register a monthly close beneath that rising trajectory for if it does, the risk of ruin is back in play.</p><p><b>The Elliott Wave Take</b></p><p>Below is a long-term chart similar to the one Rambus used from 1981. I have held to this wave count (as has the dollar) for nearly a decade. This does not imply that I will be right in the end, it simply proves that I have been right thus far.</p><p><em>(click to enlarge)<a href="http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/3/22/509133-13639898631866-Elliott-Wave-Technology_origin.png" rel="lightbox" rel="nofollow"><img src="http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/3/22/509133-13639898631866-Elliott-Wave-Technology.png" hspace="6" vspace="6" width="470" height="355" /></a></em></p><p><a href="http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/3/22/509133-13639898390287802-Elliott-Wave-Technology_origin.png" rel="lightbox" rel="nofollow"><em>(click to enlarge)</em></a></p><p>To fully appreciate our unconventional application of the theory, specifically as it relates to the above chart, please refer to &quot;<a href="http://www.elliottwavetechnology.com/2012/06/us-dollar-wave-counts-flight-to-safety.html" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">US Dollar: Wave Counts, Flight-to-Safety</a>&quot; penned in June of last year.</p><p>The following is brief excerpt from the above link:</p><blockquote class='quote'><p><i>As graphically inferred by the articles introductory image, there is no doubt whatsoever that since its general inception, the US dollar remains by politically exploitive design, enmeshed in a long-term secular decline toward oblivion.</i></p><p><i>The end game will play out like those of all other fiat currency throughout humankind's history, which shall of course lead to an outright failure and the existential necessity for the country (or world) inevitably to manufacture and adopt a suitable replacement.</i></p></blockquote><p>Until next time, <strong>Trade Better/Invest Smarter</strong></p><hr><p><sub>About the Author</sub></p><p><sub>Since the dot.com bubble, 911, and the 2002 market crash, Elliott Wave Technology's mission remains the delivery of valuable solutions-based services that empower clients to execute successful trading and investment decisions in all market environments.</sub></p><p><sub>Joe Russo is an entrepreneurial publisher and market analyst providing digital online media solutions designed to assist traders and investors in prudently and profitably navigating their exposure to the financial markets.</sub></p><p><sub>Since the official launch of his</sub> <a href="http://www.elliottwavetechnology.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow"><sub>Elliott Wave Technology</sub></a> <sub>website in 2005, he has established an outstanding record of accomplishment, including but not limited to,</sub> <sub>&hellip;</sub></p><ul><li><sub>In 2005, he elicited a major long-term wealth producing nugget of guidance in suggesting strongly that members give serious consideration to apportioning 10%-20% of their net worth toward the physical acquisition of Gold (@ $400.) and Silver (@ $6.00).</sub></li><li><sub>In 2006, the (</sub><a href="http://www.mta.org/eweb/StartPage.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow"><sub>MTA</sub></a><sub>) Market Technicians Association featured his article &quot;</sub><a href="http://www.safehaven.com/article/6308/scaling-perceptions-amid-the-global-equity-boom" target="_blank" rel="nofollow"><sub>Scaling Perceptions amid the Global Equity Boom</sub></a><sub>&quot; in their industry newsletter, &quot;Technically Speaking.&quot;</sub></li><li><sub>On May 6 of 2007, five months prior to the market top in 2007, though still bullish at that time, he publicly warned long-term investors not to be fooled again, in &quot;</sub><a href="http://www.safehaven.com/article/7496/bullish-like-theres-no-tomorrow" target="_blank" rel="nofollow"><sub>Bullish Like There's No Tomorrow</sub></a><sub>.&quot;</sub></li><li><sub>On March 10 of 2008, with another 48% of downside remaining to the bottom of the great bear market of 2008-2009, in &quot;</sub><a href="http://www.linkedin.com/redir/redirect?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww%2Esafehaven%2Ecom%2Farticle%2F9661%2Fv-for-vendetta&amp;urlhash=amDd&amp;trk=prof-project-name-link" target="_blank" rel="nofollow"><sub>V-for Vendetta</sub></a><sub>,&quot; using the Wilshire 5000 as proxy, he publicly laid out the case for the depth and amplitude of the unfolding bear market, which marked terminal to a rather nice long-run in equity values.</sub></li><li><sub>Working extensively with EasyLanguage&reg; programmer George Pruitt in 2010 and 2011, the author of &quot;</sub><a href="http://www.linkedin.com/redir/redirect?url=http%3A%2F%2Fcdn%2Epreterhuman%2Enet%2Ftexts%2Ffinance_and_marketing%2Fstock_market%2FBuilding%2520Winning%2520Trading%2520Systems%2520With%2520Tradestation%2520-%2520Wiley%2Epdf&amp;urlhash=Zh7_&amp;trk=prof-publication-title-link" target="_blank" rel="nofollow"><sub>Building Winning Trading Systems with TradeStation</sub></a><sub>,&quot; he assisted in the development of several proprietary trading systems.</sub></li><li><sub>On February 11, 2011, he publicly made available his call for a</sub> <a href="http://www.linkedin.com/redir/redirect?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww%2Eelliottwavetechnology%2Ecom%2F2011%2F02%2Fbonds-set-to-rally-finding-bottom-by%2Ehtml&amp;urlhash=GHZ6&amp;trk=prof-publication-title-link" target="_blank" rel="nofollow"><sub>key bottom in the long bond</sub></a> <sub>at 117 '3/32. Within a year and half from his call, the long bond rallied in excess of 30% to new all time highs in July of 2012.</sub></li><li><sub>For the benefit of members and his general readership, he responded to widespread levels of economic and financial uncertainty in the development of</sub> <a href="http://www.linkedin.com/redir/redirect?url=http%3A%2F%2Fprudentmeasures%2Eelliottwavetechnology%2Ecom%2F&amp;urlhash=nVmR&amp;trk=prof-project-name-link" target="_blank" rel="nofollow"><sub>Prudent Measures</sub></a> <sub>in 2012.</sub></li><li><sub>He publicly warned of a</sub> <a href="http://www.linkedin.com/redir/redirect?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww%2Eelliottwavetechnology%2Ecom%2F2012%2F10%2Fapple-and-dow-threaten-major-cyclical%2Ehtml&amp;urlhash=68KT&amp;trk=prof-project-name-link" target="_blank" rel="nofollow"><sub>major top in Apple</sub></a> <sub>on October 26, 2012 in the very early stages of a 40% decline from its all time high.</sub></li></ul><p><strong>Disclosure: </strong>I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.</p>]]>
      </description>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/uup/instablogs">uup</category>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/tag/Dollar">Dollar</category>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Silver, Why We Need To Hedge All Bets</title>
      <link>http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/509133-elliott-wave-technology/1663621-silver-why-we-need-to-hedge-all-bets?source=feed</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">1663621</guid>
      <content>
        <![CDATA[<p><img src="http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/3/18/509133-13636341698939407-Elliott-Wave-Technology.png" align="left" alt="Fantastic-4 image-2" hspace="6" vspace="6" width="97" height="92" /></p><p>From an <a href="http://www.investopedia.com/video/play/understanding-elliott-wave-theory/#axzz2NfPGJaFX" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Elliott Wave</a> perspective, the big bullish bet for newcomers into the Silver market rests with the prospect that the 2012 low of $26.07 marked a fantastic (4) wave-basing opportunity. Despite the impulsive rocket launch to the $35.44 level last October, the market has been trending lower ever since. Recently, the market briefly dipped beneath the last common Fibonacci retracement level noted at the $28.07 mark.</p><p><em>(click to enlarge)<a href="http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/3/18/509133-13636342959632802-Elliott-Wave-Technology_origin.png" rel="lightbox" rel="nofollow"><img src="http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/3/18/509133-13636342959632802-Elliott-Wave-Technology.png" align="middle" hspace="6" vspace="6" width="500" height="375" /></a></em></p><p><a href="http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/3/18/509133-13636341955945475-Elliott-Wave-Technology_origin.png" rel="lightbox" rel="nofollow"><em>(click to enlarge)</em></a></p><p>The modest move higher from last pivot low of $27.96 appears corrective thus far, suggesting that lower lows remain plausible.</p><p>Back in <a href="http://www.safehaven.com/article/28076/silver-window-of-opportunity-2968-2623-by-jan-18" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">December</a> of last year when silver was trading north of $32, we shared a downside price-target window for wave &quot;2&quot; down between $29.61 and $26.65. Since then, price has breached halfway into the belly of that window, and remains there, currently hovering just north of horizontal support/resistance near $28.37.</p><p>Despite the persistent downtrend, the move down from the $35.44 pivot high is clearly corrective, suggesting that a sustainable and tradable low may be near at hand. The downward pattern is taking the form of a falling wedge, which is typically a bullish formation.</p><p>If the recent low at $27.96 terminated the &quot;e&quot; wave of &quot;2&quot; down, we should soon witness the commencement of slow, steady, and relentless rocket launch to the upside, which may or may not look back upon speeding past our standing upside price target of $47 dollars per ounce.</p><p>Should the current downside correction complicate further, another up/down sequence is likely to finish it, completing a &quot;double-three&quot; corrective pattern ( a,b,c,x,a,b,c ) for wave &quot;2&quot; down. Amid such complication, price must not breach the standing low of $26.07 or else all bets are off for a 2nd wave down.</p><p>Until silver is able to sustain trade and closes north of $31, prospects of reaching the working downside price target noted at $26.23 remains quite possible. If upon a retest, price does breach the standing low of $26.07, wave &quot;2&quot; down is off the table, and such lower lows shall then become replacement candidates for the fantastic (4) terminal.</p><p>Given all of the technical and fundamental evidence in our view, opportunity remains ripe for the continued accumulation and acquisition of physical silver. With that said, one should still consider&hellip;</p><p><b>Hedging All Bets</b></p><p><img src="http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/3/18/509133-13636343613341289-Elliott-Wave-Technology.png" align="left" alt="Happy Hedgehog" hspace="6" vspace="6" width="250" height="244" /></p><p>In market lingo, we all know about the nature of bulls, bears, and pigs, but surprisingly, no reference to Hedgehogs, which could be associated with the prudence inherent in &quot;hedging&quot; one's bets and long-term investments.</p><p>Bulls win and lose fortunes, bears win and lose fortunes, slaughtered indiscriminately are the pigs, and it may be said that hedgehogs remain solvent and profitable with strong hands throughout.</p><p>Whether you prep, stack silver, hoard cash, or invest in stocks and bonds, it is never a good idea to go &quot;ALL-IN&quot; in any one thing.</p><p>A far better approach to consider is making certain that you have all bases adequately covered in order to prevail and prosper amid any potential future outcomes - good, bad, or ugly.</p><p><b>Uncertainty is Afoot</b></p><p>Although unequivocally flawed, the fraud of debt-base paper money, along with the associated assets and values it deceptively measures, is likely to remain forcibly imposed for far longer than any of us could possibly imagine.</p><p><b>Until freed from its total enslavement, it is impossible to dismiss debt-based paper money and all that it currently values and accounts for.</b> Although we can and should seriously consider opting-out of the fraud to every reasonable extent practical, there is simply no possible way of totally walking away and breaking free from the forcible imposition to transact in this god-forsaken currency system of perpetual bondage.</p><p>Though we can make compelling and educated guesses as to why, how and when a great monetary reset may occur, the truth is, no one knows.</p><p><b>When in Rome</b></p><p>The decline and fall of the Roman Empire took four centuries to unfold. As such, it is reasonable to consider that the decline and collapse of the Anglo/American Empire may or may not occur in our lifetimes.</p><p>Given the undeniable conditions that persist, the withdrawal pangs of entropy are well underway, and are likely to manifest in a multitude of varied iterations over the next several years and decades.</p><p><b>In any event, the only thing certain is that uncertainty shall continue to reign.</b> Prospects for long-term stability and broad based societal optimism, abundance, and prosperity are slim at best.</p><p>Given this harsh reality, do not bet the ranch on an impending collapse, and do not dismiss the resiliency of a corrupt global debt-based money system - no matter how loudly it screams PONZI-SCHEME and inevitable mathematically assured failure.</p><p>Whatever you do, don't be fooled again, and hedge like you've never hedged before.</p><p><a href="http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/3/18/509133-1363634434052452-Elliott-Wave-Technology_origin.png" rel="lightbox" rel="nofollow"><em><em><img src="http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/3/18/509133-1363634434052452-Elliott-Wave-Technology.png" align="middle" hspace="6" vspace="6" width="500" height="333" /></em></em></a></p><blockquote class='quote'><p><b><i>The Austrian School Take on the Collapse of the Roman Empire</i></b></p><p><i>From</i> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decline_of_the_Roman_Empire" target="_blank" rel="nofollow"><i>Wikipedia</i></a><i>: Historian Michael Rostovtzeff and economist Ludwig von Mises both argued that unsound economic policies played a key role in the impoverishment and decay of the Roman Empire. According to them, by the 2nd century AD, the Roman Empire had developed a complex market economy in which trade was relatively free.</i></p><p><i>Tariffs were low and laws controlling the prices of foodstuffs and other commodities had little impact because they did not fix the prices significantly below their market levels.</i></p><p><b><i>Enter Inflation</i></b></p><p><i>After the 3rd century, however, debasement of the currency (i.e., the minting of coins with diminishing content of gold, silver, and bronze) led to inflation. The price control laws then resulted in prices that were significantly below their free-market equilibrium levels.</i></p><p><i>It should, however, be noted that Constantine initiated a successful reform of the currency which was completed before the barbarian invasions of the 4th century, and that thereafter the currency remained sound everywhere that remained within the empire until at least the 11th century - at any rate for gold coins.</i></p><p><i>According to Rostovtzeff and Mises, artificially low prices led to the scarcity of foodstuffs, particularly in cities, whose inhabitants depended on trade to obtain them.</i></p><p><b><i>Government Losing Control</i></b></p><p><i>Despite laws passed to prevent migration from the cities to the countryside, urban areas gradually became depopulated and many Roman citizens abandoned their specialized trades to practice subsistence agriculture.</i></p><p><i>This, coupled with increasingly oppressive and arbitrary taxation, led to a severe net decrease in trade, technical innovation, and the overall wealth of the Empire.</i></p><p><i>Bruce Bartlett traces the beginning of debasement to the reign of Nero. He claims that the emperors increasingly relied on the army as the sole source of their power, and therefore their economic policy was driven more and more by a desire to increase military funding in order to buy the army's loyalty.</i></p></blockquote><p><img src="http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/3/18/509133-13636344782519522-Elliott-Wave-Technology.png" align="middle" alt="Rome Burns" hspace="6" vspace="6" width="450" height="257" /></p><blockquote class='quote'><p><b><i>Economic Collapse</i></b></p><p><i>By the 3rd century, according to Bartlett, the monetary economy had collapsed. But the imperial government was now in a position where it had to satisfy the demands of the army at all costs. Failure to do so would result in the army forcibly deposing the emperor and installing a new one.</i></p><p><i>Therefore, being unable to increase monetary taxes, the Roman Empire had to resort to direct requisitioning of physical goods anywhere it could find them - for example taking food and cattle from farmers.</i></p><p><b><i>Civil Unrest</i></b></p><p><i>The result, in Bartlett's view, was social chaos, and this led to different responses from the authorities and from the common people. The authorities tried to restore order by requiring free people (i.e. non-slaves) to remain in the same occupation or even at the same place of employment.</i></p><p><i>Eventually, this practice was extended to force children to follow the same occupation as their parents. So, for instance, farmers were tied to the land, and the sons of soldiers had to become soldiers themselves.</i></p></blockquote><p><img src="http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/3/18/509133-13636345098694074-Elliott-Wave-Technology.png" align="middle" alt="Roman Soldiers" hspace="6" vspace="6" width="400" height="386" /></p><blockquote class='quote'><p><b><i>Opting Out/Walking Away</i></b></p><p><i>Many common people reacted by moving to the countryside, sometimes joining the estates of the wealthy, and in general trying to be self-sufficient and interact as little as possible with the imperial authorities.</i></p><p><b><i>Endgame = Feudalism</i></b></p><p><i>Thus, according to Bartlett, Roman society began to dissolve into a number of separate estates that operated as closed systems, provided for all their own needs and did not engage in trade at all. These were the beginnings of feudalism.</i></p></blockquote><p><b>Summary</b></p><p>History has numerous valuable lessons. Unfortunately, too few understand these lessons, and too many dismiss them. <b>More profound is the total lack of proper education relative to the critical and existential importance of such lessons.</b></p><p>Life is a series of measured risks. All autonomous or coerced decisions made by individuals are nothing more than purposefully assumed risks carrying varying consequences and rewards at every level of magnitude.</p><p>To every extent practical, for most, the balance, timing, and nature of such decisions should be simplified and well hedged, especially in an increasingly complex world of conflicting information/propaganda overload.</p><p>Just as the astute insure their wealth with relevant apportionments of precious metals, and just as its prudent to be otherwise prepared and fully aware, so too is it necessary to maintain a certain level of tactical and select exposure to traditional financial assets. At present, in far too many realms of endeavor, we have no choice other than transacting/investing in traditional financial assets.</p><p>Unless you have amassed an extraordinary level of wealth that allows you to swing for the bleachers with a large all-in bet that you can comfortably afford to lose, too much concentration in any single asset class, theme, or conviction can place you in a rather uncomfortable box if things do not go as generally anticipated.</p><p>In closing, keep an open mind; be aware of all discernible truths, and follow your own rational logic in adequately hedging all of your life's most critical bets.</p><p>Until next time...</p><p><strong><em>Trade Better/Invest Smarter</em></strong></p><p><a href="http://www.elliottwavetechnology.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Elliott Wave Technology</a></p><p><strong>Disclosure: </strong>I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.</p><p><strong>Additional disclosure:</strong> I am long Physical Silver</p>]]>
      </content>
      <pubDate>Mon, 18 Mar 2013 15:30:56 -0400</pubDate>
      <description>
        <![CDATA[<p><img src="http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/3/18/509133-13636341698939407-Elliott-Wave-Technology.png" align="left" alt="Fantastic-4 image-2" hspace="6" vspace="6" width="97" height="92" /></p><p>From an <a href="http://www.investopedia.com/video/play/understanding-elliott-wave-theory/#axzz2NfPGJaFX" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Elliott Wave</a> perspective, the big bullish bet for newcomers into the Silver market rests with the prospect that the 2012 low of $26.07 marked a fantastic (4) wave-basing opportunity. Despite the impulsive rocket launch to the $35.44 level last October, the market has been trending lower ever since. Recently, the market briefly dipped beneath the last common Fibonacci retracement level noted at the $28.07 mark.</p><p><em>(click to enlarge)<a href="http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/3/18/509133-13636342959632802-Elliott-Wave-Technology_origin.png" rel="lightbox" rel="nofollow"><img src="http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/3/18/509133-13636342959632802-Elliott-Wave-Technology.png" align="middle" hspace="6" vspace="6" width="500" height="375" /></a></em></p><p><a href="http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/3/18/509133-13636341955945475-Elliott-Wave-Technology_origin.png" rel="lightbox" rel="nofollow"><em>(click to enlarge)</em></a></p><p>The modest move higher from last pivot low of $27.96 appears corrective thus far, suggesting that lower lows remain plausible.</p><p>Back in <a href="http://www.safehaven.com/article/28076/silver-window-of-opportunity-2968-2623-by-jan-18" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">December</a> of last year when silver was trading north of $32, we shared a downside price-target window for wave &quot;2&quot; down between $29.61 and $26.65. Since then, price has breached halfway into the belly of that window, and remains there, currently hovering just north of horizontal support/resistance near $28.37.</p><p>Despite the persistent downtrend, the move down from the $35.44 pivot high is clearly corrective, suggesting that a sustainable and tradable low may be near at hand. The downward pattern is taking the form of a falling wedge, which is typically a bullish formation.</p><p>If the recent low at $27.96 terminated the &quot;e&quot; wave of &quot;2&quot; down, we should soon witness the commencement of slow, steady, and relentless rocket launch to the upside, which may or may not look back upon speeding past our standing upside price target of $47 dollars per ounce.</p><p>Should the current downside correction complicate further, another up/down sequence is likely to finish it, completing a &quot;double-three&quot; corrective pattern ( a,b,c,x,a,b,c ) for wave &quot;2&quot; down. Amid such complication, price must not breach the standing low of $26.07 or else all bets are off for a 2nd wave down.</p><p>Until silver is able to sustain trade and closes north of $31, prospects of reaching the working downside price target noted at $26.23 remains quite possible. If upon a retest, price does breach the standing low of $26.07, wave &quot;2&quot; down is off the table, and such lower lows shall then become replacement candidates for the fantastic (4) terminal.</p><p>Given all of the technical and fundamental evidence in our view, opportunity remains ripe for the continued accumulation and acquisition of physical silver. With that said, one should still consider&hellip;</p><p><b>Hedging All Bets</b></p><p><img src="http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/3/18/509133-13636343613341289-Elliott-Wave-Technology.png" align="left" alt="Happy Hedgehog" hspace="6" vspace="6" width="250" height="244" /></p><p>In market lingo, we all know about the nature of bulls, bears, and pigs, but surprisingly, no reference to Hedgehogs, which could be associated with the prudence inherent in &quot;hedging&quot; one's bets and long-term investments.</p><p>Bulls win and lose fortunes, bears win and lose fortunes, slaughtered indiscriminately are the pigs, and it may be said that hedgehogs remain solvent and profitable with strong hands throughout.</p><p>Whether you prep, stack silver, hoard cash, or invest in stocks and bonds, it is never a good idea to go &quot;ALL-IN&quot; in any one thing.</p><p>A far better approach to consider is making certain that you have all bases adequately covered in order to prevail and prosper amid any potential future outcomes - good, bad, or ugly.</p><p><b>Uncertainty is Afoot</b></p><p>Although unequivocally flawed, the fraud of debt-base paper money, along with the associated assets and values it deceptively measures, is likely to remain forcibly imposed for far longer than any of us could possibly imagine.</p><p><b>Until freed from its total enslavement, it is impossible to dismiss debt-based paper money and all that it currently values and accounts for.</b> Although we can and should seriously consider opting-out of the fraud to every reasonable extent practical, there is simply no possible way of totally walking away and breaking free from the forcible imposition to transact in this god-forsaken currency system of perpetual bondage.</p><p>Though we can make compelling and educated guesses as to why, how and when a great monetary reset may occur, the truth is, no one knows.</p><p><b>When in Rome</b></p><p>The decline and fall of the Roman Empire took four centuries to unfold. As such, it is reasonable to consider that the decline and collapse of the Anglo/American Empire may or may not occur in our lifetimes.</p><p>Given the undeniable conditions that persist, the withdrawal pangs of entropy are well underway, and are likely to manifest in a multitude of varied iterations over the next several years and decades.</p><p><b>In any event, the only thing certain is that uncertainty shall continue to reign.</b> Prospects for long-term stability and broad based societal optimism, abundance, and prosperity are slim at best.</p><p>Given this harsh reality, do not bet the ranch on an impending collapse, and do not dismiss the resiliency of a corrupt global debt-based money system - no matter how loudly it screams PONZI-SCHEME and inevitable mathematically assured failure.</p><p>Whatever you do, don't be fooled again, and hedge like you've never hedged before.</p><p><a href="http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/3/18/509133-1363634434052452-Elliott-Wave-Technology_origin.png" rel="lightbox" rel="nofollow"><em><em><img src="http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/3/18/509133-1363634434052452-Elliott-Wave-Technology.png" align="middle" hspace="6" vspace="6" width="500" height="333" /></em></em></a></p><blockquote class='quote'><p><b><i>The Austrian School Take on the Collapse of the Roman Empire</i></b></p><p><i>From</i> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decline_of_the_Roman_Empire" target="_blank" rel="nofollow"><i>Wikipedia</i></a><i>: Historian Michael Rostovtzeff and economist Ludwig von Mises both argued that unsound economic policies played a key role in the impoverishment and decay of the Roman Empire. According to them, by the 2nd century AD, the Roman Empire had developed a complex market economy in which trade was relatively free.</i></p><p><i>Tariffs were low and laws controlling the prices of foodstuffs and other commodities had little impact because they did not fix the prices significantly below their market levels.</i></p><p><b><i>Enter Inflation</i></b></p><p><i>After the 3rd century, however, debasement of the currency (i.e., the minting of coins with diminishing content of gold, silver, and bronze) led to inflation. The price control laws then resulted in prices that were significantly below their free-market equilibrium levels.</i></p><p><i>It should, however, be noted that Constantine initiated a successful reform of the currency which was completed before the barbarian invasions of the 4th century, and that thereafter the currency remained sound everywhere that remained within the empire until at least the 11th century - at any rate for gold coins.</i></p><p><i>According to Rostovtzeff and Mises, artificially low prices led to the scarcity of foodstuffs, particularly in cities, whose inhabitants depended on trade to obtain them.</i></p><p><b><i>Government Losing Control</i></b></p><p><i>Despite laws passed to prevent migration from the cities to the countryside, urban areas gradually became depopulated and many Roman citizens abandoned their specialized trades to practice subsistence agriculture.</i></p><p><i>This, coupled with increasingly oppressive and arbitrary taxation, led to a severe net decrease in trade, technical innovation, and the overall wealth of the Empire.</i></p><p><i>Bruce Bartlett traces the beginning of debasement to the reign of Nero. He claims that the emperors increasingly relied on the army as the sole source of their power, and therefore their economic policy was driven more and more by a desire to increase military funding in order to buy the army's loyalty.</i></p></blockquote><p><img src="http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/3/18/509133-13636344782519522-Elliott-Wave-Technology.png" align="middle" alt="Rome Burns" hspace="6" vspace="6" width="450" height="257" /></p><blockquote class='quote'><p><b><i>Economic Collapse</i></b></p><p><i>By the 3rd century, according to Bartlett, the monetary economy had collapsed. But the imperial government was now in a position where it had to satisfy the demands of the army at all costs. Failure to do so would result in the army forcibly deposing the emperor and installing a new one.</i></p><p><i>Therefore, being unable to increase monetary taxes, the Roman Empire had to resort to direct requisitioning of physical goods anywhere it could find them - for example taking food and cattle from farmers.</i></p><p><b><i>Civil Unrest</i></b></p><p><i>The result, in Bartlett's view, was social chaos, and this led to different responses from the authorities and from the common people. The authorities tried to restore order by requiring free people (i.e. non-slaves) to remain in the same occupation or even at the same place of employment.</i></p><p><i>Eventually, this practice was extended to force children to follow the same occupation as their parents. So, for instance, farmers were tied to the land, and the sons of soldiers had to become soldiers themselves.</i></p></blockquote><p><img src="http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/3/18/509133-13636345098694074-Elliott-Wave-Technology.png" align="middle" alt="Roman Soldiers" hspace="6" vspace="6" width="400" height="386" /></p><blockquote class='quote'><p><b><i>Opting Out/Walking Away</i></b></p><p><i>Many common people reacted by moving to the countryside, sometimes joining the estates of the wealthy, and in general trying to be self-sufficient and interact as little as possible with the imperial authorities.</i></p><p><b><i>Endgame = Feudalism</i></b></p><p><i>Thus, according to Bartlett, Roman society began to dissolve into a number of separate estates that operated as closed systems, provided for all their own needs and did not engage in trade at all. These were the beginnings of feudalism.</i></p></blockquote><p><b>Summary</b></p><p>History has numerous valuable lessons. Unfortunately, too few understand these lessons, and too many dismiss them. <b>More profound is the total lack of proper education relative to the critical and existential importance of such lessons.</b></p><p>Life is a series of measured risks. All autonomous or coerced decisions made by individuals are nothing more than purposefully assumed risks carrying varying consequences and rewards at every level of magnitude.</p><p>To every extent practical, for most, the balance, timing, and nature of such decisions should be simplified and well hedged, especially in an increasingly complex world of conflicting information/propaganda overload.</p><p>Just as the astute insure their wealth with relevant apportionments of precious metals, and just as its prudent to be otherwise prepared and fully aware, so too is it necessary to maintain a certain level of tactical and select exposure to traditional financial assets. At present, in far too many realms of endeavor, we have no choice other than transacting/investing in traditional financial assets.</p><p>Unless you have amassed an extraordinary level of wealth that allows you to swing for the bleachers with a large all-in bet that you can comfortably afford to lose, too much concentration in any single asset class, theme, or conviction can place you in a rather uncomfortable box if things do not go as generally anticipated.</p><p>In closing, keep an open mind; be aware of all discernible truths, and follow your own rational logic in adequately hedging all of your life's most critical bets.</p><p>Until next time...</p><p><strong><em>Trade Better/Invest Smarter</em></strong></p><p><a href="http://www.elliottwavetechnology.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Elliott Wave Technology</a></p><p><strong>Disclosure: </strong>I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.</p><p><strong>Additional disclosure:</strong> I am long Physical Silver</p>]]>
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