Seeking Alpha

skiman

skiman
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View skiman's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Predictions For 2014 [View article]
    "The Fed is going to finish tapering and begin to reverse QE in 2014"

    I doubt that the Fed will finish tapering in 2014 and believe that the Fed will still be buying a considerable amount of bonds each month through the 2014 elections. I do not believe that tapering will be completed until 2015 at the earliest. It is also possible that any reversing in QE will only be a liquidation of assets to fund the withdrawal of member bank excess reserves.
    Dec 31 03:01 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2014 Questions For Stock Market Bears [View article]
    The wild card is terrorism and we have seen this movie already. Watch Sochi in particular. Another Munich style attack will be the end of this bull market. Anything bigger will be the end of a lot more.
    Dec 31 02:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Predictions For Gold In 2014: Don't Expect A Long Consolidation [View article]
    I believe that the author is correct in general, but may be off in his timimg. I am looking at a bottom in gold during the spring with a bottom at or below 800. This is a completion of the five wave pattern that started several years ago.January appears to be too soon for this level of correction.
    Dec 29 01:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Gold And Silver Will Break To New Lows, Then Rise [View article]
    "It is even possible that Market Makers will push gold below the $1,000 mark into the $900s, on one or two panic sell days."

    Wave 1 took gold from about 1900 in 8/2011 to about 1550 in 5/2012, a wave length of about 350. Wave 3 took gold from about 1800 in 9/2012 to about 1200 in 6/2013, a wave length of roughly 600. Wave 5 will take gold from 1400 in 8/2013 to its bottom. I expect that wave will be the largest. This puts the bottom in the 800 - 430 range. I expect this bottom to occur in mid to late 2014. This coincides well this the Congressional election cycle.
    Dec 26 01:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cold Winter Could Lead To Massive Natural Gas Futures Price Spike [View article]
    "The odds could actually rise if the startling prediction that the world would enter a mini-ice age in 2014 made in 2010 by Russian scientist Dr. Habibullo Abdussamatov, head of space research at Pulkovo Astronomical Observatory in St. Petersburg, Russia, is correct."
    If this happens, Al Gore will take credit for it.
    Dec 23 11:57 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The U.S. Bankrupt? [View article]
    "The US can print its own money, which is the world's reserve currency and it has very deep financial markets."

    Yes, but there are limits on how much money it can print before the world no longer values that currency. Otherwise, the US could eliminate taxes and raise benefits by borrowing.
    Dec 21 03:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude Oil Export Ban Pits Shale Producers Vs. Refiners [View article]
    The best solution to this is for Iran or Russia to conquer the Middle East. A longer-term solution is to elect an American president who understands economics and values it more than politics.
    Dec 21 03:31 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Brutal Weather Hurting Oil Producers, Benefiting Natural Gas Producers [View article]
    The wild card in the price of energy is the potential for war in the Middle East. Eventually, someone will have to deal with the mess that has been left there. If Iran develops a nuclear bomb, its neighbors will be forced to do the same. This costs plenty and the energy consumers will pay for those endeavors.
    Dec 18 03:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What If Stocks Crash And Don't Bounce Back? [View article]
    The problem may not be a crash in equities, but a crash in the US dollar. With the Fed creating too many US dollars, it may take a lot of equities to purchase a liter of gasoline, a loaf of bread, or a liter off milk. Just ask the Germans of the 1930s.
    Dec 18 02:54 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Homebuilders' Stagnating Sales: It's The Affordability, Stupid! [View article]
    In the last 30 years, interest rates have declined to the point where they reached bottom in 2012. Buying a home using a mortgage loan was easy. Once you qualified for a mortgage, you watched the mortgage rates and refinanced every few years at a lower rate and a lower mortgage payment. If you moved, you could sell your home for a gain.

    Today, interest rates will probably increase or not decrease. This eliminates any opportunity to refinance a mortgage at a lower interest rate. Unless we see wage inflation, it is unlikely that there will be a lot of customer bidding up the price of your home. Demographics will also swell the stock of homes on the market.

    This all means that today is not the best time to buy a home. Unless one needs a home, he had best wait for interest rates to increase and for seniors to dump their homes onto the market. Then there will be a good home buying opportunity.
    Dec 17 02:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed's Worst Nightmare [View article]
    Perhaps we should look at the 10-year Treasury yield in mid September 2012 when the Fed announced QE III. They were half of what they are now, 15 months later. What will they be in March 2015, 15 months from now?
    Dec 16 02:16 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Detroit Following The Cyprus Template? [View article]
    "We are now in the fourth year of an economic recovery, as I mentioned earlier, almost after 5th year anniversary of the bull market and we still have a FED fund rate around 0%. It will lead to a colossal misallocation of capital. It punishes savers that have saved of all their lives for retirement that have some money in the bank, they get no interest on that money anymore. "
    Perhaps we need a savers strike. If every saver withdrew their savings from their banks in a period of a few days, the banks would have to withdraw their excess reserves. The same holds with money market fund and cash with brokerage funds. The results would be interesting.
    Dec 13 03:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • President Obama: Lift The Ban On Crude Exports [View article]
    "Besides, it would be a big risk on their part to spend hundreds of millions on reconfiguration only to be potentially whipsawed by a Presidential decree allowing light-sweet crude to be exported. Then the refiners would wish they were back on a heavy slate."

    This is the problem when the president does not understand the effects of his regulations. America will have crude oil that it cannot use and cannot sell while it is paying higher prices for foreign heavy crude. If you like your crude oil, you have to keep it because the president says you cannot sell it. Perhaps we should call this the Affordable Energy Act or the White House Hosing.
    Dec 10 04:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Fed Won't Taper In December [View article]
    The Fed will taper in November or December 2014, after the mid-term elections!
    Dec 10 03:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Raise The Minimum Wage? [View article]
    Rather than the government raising minimum wages, perhaps business owners should increase the wages they are paying. Those unions demanding a higher minimum wage can purchase these minimum wage shops and pay such higher wages. As workers gravitate to these shops, other shops will have to raise their wages to attract their workers. It will be interesting to see how these union shops will pay the higher wages and compete with their competition.
    Dec 9 02:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
775 Comments
1,101 Likes