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  • Lower WTI Oil Price Ahead [View article]
    This article concentrates too much on the supply of crude oil and ignores the demand for it. Third World countries with billions of inhabitants are now becoming sufficiently wealthy to afford motor vehicles. Those new auto owners will purchase fuel for their vehicles and that will increase demand for crude oil. Furthermore, regulations to shutter coal power plants will also increase demand for natural gas and crude oil.

    The value of a barrel of crude oil is determined by the world market. That the Fed is and will continue to depreciate the value of the US dollar will increase the price of crude oil even if that price remains stable relative to more stable currencies.

    With increasing world demand for crude oil and the depreciation of the US dollar, we will see a higher long-term price for crude oil unless we first see a major alternative to this form of energy. And finally, we must consider war concerns on the Middle East.
    Nov 4, 2013. 11:49 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Still Too Early To Worry About The Fed Tapering [View article]
    At 1/1/2013, we had the income tax increases of 1/1/2013 and the end of the 2% FICA tax reduction. By 3/31/2014, we will have the healthcare insurance increases from the Affordable Care Act. The Fed will not do anything until it sees how these tax increases impact the economy. In addition, the country has not resolved its fiscal and debt woes. Because of these events, the Fed will not change its QE programs until after the mid-term elections.
    Nov 3, 2013. 01:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Redacted Version Of The October 2013 FOMC Statement [View article]
    As the Fed's bond holdings increase, it owns a growing portion of government guaranteed debt, One can only wonder what today's yield would be had the Fed never expanded its balance sheet. We can also speculate what interest rates will be if the Fed ever ends its bond buying program.
    Oct 31, 2013. 01:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Commodities Today: Carbon Bubble? We Think Not! [View article]
    One of the assumptions that Gore makes is that global regulation will limit the consumption of carbon based fuels. Any such regulation will cripple economic activity. With sovereign debt at record levels, governments can ill afford to destroy their economies. Gore's impressions are not supported by realistic assumptions. Only when alternative fuels can compete with carbon based fuels will we see the end of the "carbon bubble."
    Oct 30, 2013. 01:28 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Does Ending Unemployment Benefit Solve The Jobs Crisis? [View article]
    Perhaps we should be talking about more employment opportunities instead of unemployment handouts. And we will get more employment opportunities once this president of ours promotes employment instead of taxing it and regulating it.
    Oct 29, 2013. 11:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Averts Crisis For Now, But Will Investors Lose Faith? [View article]
    "However, US politicians still haven't found a permanent solution to the nation's debt problems.."
    Not only has the US not found a permanent solution to its unsustainable debt, it has increased that debt. Surely, more debt is not a solution to too much debt. The US has simply made its debt problem worse and postponed the time of its reckoning.
    Oct 18, 2013. 11:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Europe's Tottering Banks [View article]
    "So the bailout mechanisms will be put into place before the ECB even looks underneath the first stone."

    Developing a solution to a problem you have yet to understand solves no problems. It only creates more problems.
    Oct 16, 2013. 11:17 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Daily State Of The Markets: Here's The Key - The Deadline Isn't Really The Deadline [View article]
    "The BPC says that the U.S. Treasury currently has about $40 billion in total cash on hand and available extraordinary measures and declining fast"

    According to the May 2013 CBO Budget Projection, the Treasury also holds over $1 trillion of financial assets that can be sold readily.
    Oct 16, 2013. 11:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Default Has Already Begun [View article]
    According to the May 2013 CBO budget projections, the Treasury owns over $1 trillion of financial assets. Of these, about half are student loan assets. Other assets include TARP assets. These assets could easily be sold to the Federal Reserve and this could be accomplished quickly. The Treasury has not run out of cash, but it has simply run out of innovation and a willingness to solve its own problems. Secretary Lew is sitting on his butt instead of solving his problems. Perhaps our problem is his boss.
    Oct 15, 2013. 02:53 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Funding Entitlements With An Ever Increasing Government Debt Burden [View article]
    This is an article that everyone should study before they vote. Unfortunately, most voters think that some else will pay for their entitlements. They will be surprised when they find that there is no free lunch.
    Oct 13, 2013. 04:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Stocks Topping Out? [View article]
    Who is going to pay for the insane government programs and to service the federal debt? If it is the corporations, earnings will suffer. If it is the consumer, revenues will suffer. In both instances, equity prices will suffer.
    Oct 11, 2013. 11:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Daily State Of The Markets: Ben Bernanke Can't Be Happy [View article]
    "Finally and for the record, what is happening now in D.C. is likely the primary reason that the FOMC decided not to begin tapering their QE program in September."

    This is a good excuse, but the reality is the Fed will not taper until after the mid-term elections.
    Oct 9, 2013. 11:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Solving The Debt Crisis Will Require Real Politik [View article]
    The problem with Affordable Care is that it is not affordable. For someone who needs a tax credit to pay for the premium on a health insurance policy, how will that individual pay for a substantial deductible, say $3,000-5,000, when that individual needs treatment of a major medical condition? How will that individual pay for the entire increase in premium for 2015 when insurance companies adjust their premium rates for the claims they paid in 2014 (the premium can increase but the tax credit does not increase)? Affordable Care is an experiment destined to perform badly. It makes sense to address this problem now instead of waiting a year or two to bail out this monster.
    Oct 9, 2013. 11:47 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Government Shutdown Threatens U.S. Dollar World Reserve Currency Status [View article]
    "Everybody knows that the U.S. dollar's days are numbered but there is really no currency to take its place except for the SDR. "

    Unless this president can demonstrate how he intends to pay for the government's massive social programs and its massive debts, the end of the buck will be sooner rather than later. Increasing debt to pay your bills is not paying your bills. It is passing your bills to the next generation.
    Oct 7, 2013. 11:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Debt Ceiling Is Not Lehman [View article]
    Within 20 years, Social Security payments will equal 6% GDP and Medicare payments will be 5% GDP. Under a normal interest rate environment, Treasuries will be yielding about 5%. With a federal debt of 100% GDP (we are already there), debt servicing will consume 5% GDP. These three costs will equal 16% GDP. Current tax rates will produce revenue of about 19% GDP. This generation is not paying for its bills; it is passing them onto the next generation. And you are correct in that this does not lead to prosperity.
    Oct 5, 2013. 02:05 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment