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skiman

skiman
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  • Market Outlook: The Calm Before The Storm [View article]
    "And barring some major economic cataclysm in the coming weeks, the tapering is likely to get underway in September."

    Yes, there will be a major economic cataclysm in the near future and no, there will be no Fed easing beginning in September.
    Jul 21 02:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Re-Regulating The Banking System: What A Mess! [View article]
    Finally, we have someone who realized the problems with the banks and has printed it. Most member banks of the Fed have excessive risk relative to their capital. The Fed has tried to address this with its QEs, but these banks are still under capitalized. The Fed's stress testing has been a joke. Perhaps the Fed should become more realistic in its stress testing and run this testing for a reasonable period, not 1 year. The results would require sufficient capital to cover most (at least 95%) of the outcomes over a period of time equal to the maturity of most of the asset portfolio.
    Jul 14 06:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bernanke Vs. The 4-Year Presidential Cycle [View article]
    Although stock indices (i.e. Wall Street) is at record highs, that does not hold for small businesses (i.e. Main Street). In June, the economy lost almost 200,000 full time jobs. How does that equate to an economic recovery? Perhaps Wall Street will just have to catch up to Main Street. And that may just occur in this presidential cycle.
    Jul 13 01:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bernanke's New Lip-Service: Don't Believe It, Bond Markets Aren't! [View article]
    I agree. The 10-year Treasury yield has support at 2.40% and resistance at 3.85-3.90%. That leaves a lot more upside gain than downside loss. Bonds are clearly a sell.
    Jul 13 01:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why We're Short Oil [View article]
    Do not look to the Suez for the price of crude. Instead, look to Hormuz to determine this price. Israel will stop Iran from going nuclear and Hisbola and Hamas with Iran's help will continually try to destroy Israel. 1,900 rigs in the 1990s supplied the world with oil. However, that was when the Chinese drove rickshaws and the Indians drove elephants. The current president of the USA has vowed to skyrocket the price of energy to further his agenda. This includes oil prices. Times are different now.
    Jul 13 11:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Forget Egypt And Short Crude Now [View article]
    Before you trade, look at the crude oil futures contracts 6 months out.
    Jul 5 07:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Economy Is Quickly Headed South - QE4 To Follow [View article]
    If you cannot believe the Fed, the Treasury, and the BEA like the author suggests, why should you believe anyone including the author?
    Jun 29 02:25 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Minimum-Wage Stimulus [View article]
    Doubling all wages will certainly go a long way to reducing corporate profits from domestic production. It will also be an incentive for more automation. The net result will be more robots doing the work of low wage workers and more US workers working zero hours at $15 per hour.
    Jun 24 12:24 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Stock Market Doesn't Have A Clue About Monetary Policy [View article]
    I agree. 2/3 of the $2.7 trillion increase in the Fed's balance sheet is a result of an increase in excess bank reserves. The Fed just took this $1.8 trillion excess reserves and invested it in bonds. Instead of adding these reserves, member banks could have simply held their bonds. The effect of the Fed's bond purchases is higher member bank reserves and a larger financial cushion should some go wrong. However, there could be a problem if the member banks withdraw their excess reserves. So far, this is not happening.
    Jun 24 01:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bears Will Have A Field Day In This Market, Bulls Will Find It Tough [View article]
    "Perhaps investors see the problem which, simply stated, is if the Government is going to continue to fund itself by issuing bonds and the Fed is not going to buy them, who is? Oops! Maybe no one!"

    For everything, there is a price. For Treasury debt, this price is much higher yields. When the Treasury lives on debt, it will eventually pay the price for it.
    Jun 22 10:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • High-Speed Trains In The United States: Coming To A Station Near You [View article]
    The problem with these high-speed trains is that the stations are not filled with paying customers. Apparently, the US passenger railroads do not care about this. This is why they cannot compete with the airlines.
    Jun 21 06:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ignore The Fed's DoubleSpeak And Get To Gold [View article]
    The Treasury's cost of debt servicing is approximately $300 billion or 2%. With the 10-year Treasury rate up 1% over the past year, one can only conjecture how much that cost will rise.
    Jun 21 06:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold: I Hate To Say I Told You So, But I Told You So [View article]
    We will know when it is time to buy gold. That will happen when we no longer see and hear commercials to sell or buy gold.
    Jun 21 01:31 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Economic Shocker Is In The Cards This Week [View article]
    The latest CBO forecast for GDP growth in 3.1% in 2013, 3.8% GDP in 2014, 5.9% in 2015, and 6.5% in 2016. A reduction in the 2.3% - 2.8% growth rate for 2013 will put the CBO GDP forecast way out of wack. Who is correct?
    Jun 17 01:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • COT Data Suggests Oil's Fall Is Coming [View article]
    I agree. The WTI chart indicates a breakout from the current trading triangle. A Middle East war will result in an upside breakout and a severe recession will result in more downside. With the Fed buying bonds and Iran close to a nuclear power, I favor the former.
    Jun 17 01:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
775 Comments
1,101 Likes