Mark Seleznov's  Instablog

This results posted below for the status of the 50 day simple moving average condition as of the close of trading November 6, 2009 is for informational purposes only.

Although the 50 day SMA is widely followed, it is one of the worse systematic trading plans that a institution, advisor, or retail trader can use.  I do not recommend using the 50 day SMA without a research report to determine if it is appropriate for the ETF, index, or asset you are trading.

The week ending November 6, 2009 saw a large number of these ETF's both above and below their 50 day SMA. (A "1" indicates above the 50 SMA, a "0" below the 50 day SMA)

Success in business, life or trading has one very important similarity. A Plan. A plan is essential for success. The top traders in the country all have this one similar trait and it is an absolute. I feel that this confuses new traders who are constantly being told about success in a specific type of trading method.

You may read a book about a method of trading that the author claims makes him money. The one common denomination that the successful traders I know have, is a plan. Let's look at some of the more recognized approaches to the markets.

Trend Trading

Breakout trading

Asset allocation

Momentum trading

Option writing

Option Premium selling

Moving averages

Point and Figure

Candlesticks

Cycle trading

Stochastics

RSI

Elliot Wave

Pair Trading

Volume analysis

Swing trading

Fibonacci

Gann

Each of the traders that use these methods have different degrees of success. The key is to have a solid plan and stick to it.

A plan consists of specific set ups, entry points exit points and stop loss points. Position sizing is also critical. Don't use your entire trading capital on a few trades. Any method can have a series of losers and market conditions that may not be ideal for a period of time.

Here is my toolbox for writing a trading plan.

Time Frame - Are you using daily, weekly or intra day data in your trading
Studies - If using studies or indicators, they must be absolute values
Set up - The condition of the stock or index before you trade it
Entry - The specific condition or conditions that now exists to take the trade
Stop Loss - The maximum amount you will lose on any trade
Exit - The conditions that say end this trade, with a profit or a loss
Filter - How you chose which stocks or indexes to trade

I feel that a trader with a plan has a chance to be in the top 5% of all traders. Develop your plan and work your plan!