Seeking Alpha

Northern Dancer

Northern Dancer
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View Northern Dancer's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • ConAgra's (CAG) recent earnings were not very impressive, at least at face value, but investors should look beyond the headline numbers, writes Ockham Research. The stock appears underappreciated and value investors would do well to consider the packaged foods maker.  [View news story]
    "ConAgra's (CAG) recent earnings were not very impressive, at least at face value, but investors should look beyond the headline numbers, writes Ockham Research. The stock appears underappreciated and value investors would do well to consider the packaged foods maker."

    That makes about the same amount of sense as a couple of weeks ago when GS et al celebrated the worst retail numbers in at least a decade by running the retail sector up 7%. It lasted a day or two and the sector has been tanking ever since. They can only suspend logic for so long before reality once again becomes a reality. "The stock appears underappreciated". Lol. Now there's a reason to buy when the market is showing every sign of having topped. We (the average investors) aren't Warren Buffett. We don't have the ability to wait 5 years for the stock to return to this level so that we can then brag that we "bought and held" and now have a profit.

    .
    Jun 27 06:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Initial Jobless Claims: -19K to 457K vs. 465K consensus. Continuing claims -45K to 4,584,000.  [View news story]
    Bad indeed. And the futures markets reacted as they always do, by giving the markets yet another pump job to the upside. It's just the same old story. Last week the retail report came out with a "surprisingly" weak picture, a very bad report indeed, and Goldman et al did what they've always done... celebrated the terrible retail news by pumping the retail sector up 7%. They're absolutely incorrigible with their crimes, but somehow are not yet behind bars. When are the citizens of the world going to put an end to this criminal manipulation? When our children are dying of starvation? Is that what it's going to take?
    Jun 24 09:12 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • House of Cards Falling Down [View article]
    Teresa you have the greatest way of making a point sometimes. lol
    Jun 20 02:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Historian Dr. Charles Geisst on the Street's Fiduciary Duty [View article]
    I just gotta say this and hope some of my few followers read it:

    Back in January I discovered Damien Hoffman here (at the link below) and was pleasantly blown away by the fact that for a man half my age Damien is as tuned in as I am. That impressed me. If only 5% of Americans Damien's age knew what he knows, there would be great hope for America. I know that sounds maybe a little overly dramatic but it's an absolute fact:

    seekingalpha.com/insta...

    For some reason I hadn't put together the fact that Damien is affiliated with Wall Street Cheat Sheet. I know, that means I'm not that sharp after all. I gotta pay more attention. I don't know why, but I just didn't connect those dots. But today, via Zero Hedge, I'm led to this article:

    wallstcheatsheet.com/b...

    I read it and thought "Wow! That takes some seriously good insight. Who in hell is this writer?". And guess what... Damien Hoffman yet again! Man, where did you come from? Awesome work kiddo. Now that I've connected the dots I'm finally following you on SA. I'm only about 8000 followers late but better late than never. You have some seriously, seriously good insights Damien and I assume your brother does as well. Keep up the very impressive work.
    Jun 20 01:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • House of Cards Falling Down [View article]
    Jason: I write the comment below only in the interest of discussion. I know you know all this stuff:

    "Here we are today, rates are zero, luckily inflation is tame and RE is still collapsing."

    Jason, not only is inflation tame, the reality is that we're staring a global deflation right in the face. And it's getting worse every week. So that pressure alone is one reason to expect lower RE values. As long as the dollar is strong and the economy anemic at best, I just can't see housing values getting up off the floor for at least 3 or 4 years. In the meantime, I'd fully expect a further 30% drop in values. As the global deflation continues as it surely must, then with the rising dollar imports will also be much cheaper. So on the surface inflation certainly doesn't seem to be a problem. The truth is much scarier. It's deflation that we have to worry about. The FED pretends to have it's eye on inflation, stating that inflation is low enough to warrant the ZIRP. Again, the truth is that they know full well that a deflationary depression is absolutely in the cards thanks to the FED's own practices, and now there's not a darned thing they can do about it.


    "If we were to see inflation and rates go up, RE is done for. Or, if we get inflation and the Fed holds rates low and monetize more debt, hang on tight to your gold and silver."

    In the past, all we've ever experience was inflation. That was one of the biggest impacts on the inflated values of housing (all real estate including commercial and industrial). So normally your assertion that "if we get inflation RE is done for" would be partially wrong. (No need to quibble about that one because inflation causes RE to rise, but the combative higher rates discourage higher RE values. In the past, inflation has always won that back and forth battle). But even if we disregard the fact that we're in a deflationary world, the economy is currently so weak that if rates were to rise right now (and there's no legit reason to raise rates at the moment) you would be more than correct. RE would be crushed. Your words were "RE armageddon". I'll go along with that.

    When we eventually do get inflation, which just won't be happening until after the entire global credit crisis has been unwound one way or another, at least two years from now, yes indeed, hold onto your gold and silver because once massive inflation takes hold it won't be long before gold will look cheap at $3000.
    Jun 17 01:54 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The U.S. recovery is going just fine, and potential bad news is discounted in share prices, Abby Joseph Cohen says. Rather than focusing on Greece or the recent jobs report, investors should consider the big picture - the underlying health of the economy and whether GDP growth and job creation will improve.  [View news story]
    They always seem to roll Abby Cohen out to dribble on her shirt whenever they need her the most. As if what she said had any meaning or credibility. And they call gold a relic.
    Jun 7 05:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Corrections Are Not Unusual [View article]
    LMAO! Indeed, it seems market corrections have occurred in the past. My belly's still jigglin' over that one logical. Thanks for the Sunday morning chuckle. Nothing's quite as funny as a wee bit of out of left field sarcasm.
    May 30 11:30 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nicholas Perna Says Eurozone Won't Fail [View article]
    David - As I read your comment I thought "now here's a guy who knows what he's talking about". And then I read that last paragraph and thought "If he's referring to the USA, how can such an astute guy be so confused?".

    I wish it weren't so, but the USA is in no better shape than any of the others. It's just that because the USD is the world's reserve currency, it will be in huge demand for the next couple of years, or however long it takes for the global credit crises to resolve. That means deflation... big time deflation of USD denominated assets. There is no franchise value here. The US will be the last domino to fall, that's all. I really, really wish it weren't so, but we can thank the global banking oligarchy for what's coming down the pipe.
    .
    May 29 08:20 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Corrections Are Not Unusual [View article]
    It's not likely the last leg of it sharkie but I give you a green thumb because other than you're comment is bang on.
    May 29 08:13 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Updated Q1 GDP Numbers: Solid, Not Spectacular [View article]
    Haha! So do I. A great big stinkin' dirty rat.
    May 29 08:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Krugman Laments the Coming Lost Decade [View article]
    As you're undoubtedly aware, in the Weimar Republic the mark collapsed to the point where it literally required a wheelbarrow full of cash to buy a loaf of bread. People who went into a diner for a piece of pie and a coffee paid for it before they ate it because otherwise, by time they'd finished eating it, it would have risen in price 50%. People also demanded to be paid at the end of every day so that they could spend their money immediately... while it was still worth "something". These are "retail" issues in hyper-inflationary mode caused by an insane amount of money printing.

    But if you're asking me to provide an example where money printing has caused hyper-inflation in the USA or Britain, it hasn't happened yet to the extent of being "hyper". As they say in the movies, "you ain't seen nothin', yet". Your example will be here in due course... sometime after the credit crises in Europe are all settled and fixed (it's seems inevitable that the "fix" will unfortunately be default), sometime after the economic collapse of the Eurozone. After the perception of "safety" in the dollar has run its course. A reasonable estimate might be two years from now perhaps?
    May 24 09:43 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Krugman Laments the Coming Lost Decade [View article]
    Like the war machine for example?
    May 22 02:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Krugman Laments the Coming Lost Decade [View article]
    > Recent data don’t suggest that America is heading for a Greece-style collapse of investor confidence. Instead, they suggest that we may be heading for a Japan-style lost decade, trapped in a prolonged era of high unemployment and slow growth.

    It’s not that nobody understands the risk. I strongly suspect that some officials at the Fed see the Japan parallels all too clearly and wish they could do more to support the economy. But in practice it’s all they can do to contain the tightening impulses of their colleagues, who (like central bankers in the 1930s) remain desperately afraid of inflation despite the absence of any evidence of rising prices. <


    I think there's one gigantic difference between the America of today and the Japan of the 1980's. And that is the fact that back in 1980 the entire world, or at least one entire and huge economic continent, wasn't on the verge of default. A default that is absolutely going to happen... as these brilliant Australian comics point out. (I think it's an Aussie and a Brit):

    www.abc.net.au/news/vi...

    Japan reduced rates to near zero, a policy which to this day still hasn't had the desired effect of inflating their way back into a big economic recovery, for at least two decades now. The argument was that they had to hold rates near zero in order to stimulate the economy and prevent a huge deflation. It was simply a case of pushing on a string which of course didn't accomplish much, as evidenced by the fact that deflation has ensued in spite. So the Yen continued to increase in value as it had since the end of WWII, when one American dollar bought 400 yen. I remember when the media pundits were struck with horror when the yen finally hit parity with one American penny. Imagine that... 100 yen to the dollar. The flip-side of the picture was of course that the American dollar was dropping in value due to inflation. And wild inflation it was back in 1980 when gold hit approx. $840.

    This time it's different. America is now pushing on the string. That will indeed have the same effect... no effect. It certainly won't spur the American economy into a new boom period, just as in Japan. That part is no different. But this time we have the added pressures of default realities all over the globe staring us in the face. The result of that is that debtors around the world will soon be forced to sell everything that isn't tied down in order to raise capital required to buy the world's reserve currency. If they want to keep up their good credit rating and make that next payment, they're going to need American dollars... badly. And they're going to have to pay mightily for it in the coming months. Krugman and his colleagues are no more afraid of inflation than they are afraid of you. They know it's coming but they also know it's too late to correct that problem.

    The stone is already cast. The writing is on the wall. For the foreseeable future, increasing demand for the $USD is already built in. If Bernanke were to raise rates, that would just exacerbate the problem of a massive but temporary strengthening in the dollar contrary to what sounds logical on the surface. The dollar will eventually go Zimbabwe but not until these immense deflationary forces have run their course. The FED can print all the money it wants, but as long as they aren't lending that money into the economy, the inflationary effects are minimalized. In the past, all that freshly printed fiat would have been loaned into the economy where via the magic of fractional reserve banking it would compound exponentially. That's were 95% of the money in the world comes from, lending. This time that magic (black magic) is absent.

    If the banks loaned that money into the economy now, instead of using it to prop up their balance sheet and to buy treasuries with, inflation would be ignited like we've never seen before. It's already too late to stop that... but they can delay it. And that's what they're doing. They're just delaying the inevitable crash of the American currency until the bitter end, rather than face the music. The days when 'facing the music' was a viable option passed decades ago. Gone is the time when America (all countries for that matter) had the chance to get their spending under control, face some pretty tough austerity measures at home (which the population would have gotten in an uproar about), but fix the problem. It's too late for that now, flat out too late.

    > In this New York Times commentary, Paul Krugman leads what will soon be a veritable gaggle of economists in lamenting the coming lost decade, one that could have been avoided if the government and central bank had only borrowed and printed more money. <


    That veritable gaggle of economists will indeed lament the coming lost decade, one that could have been avoided if the government and central bank had only borrowed "less" and printed "less" money in decades past. These guys sure know how to spin a story don't they? Trying to justify more borrowing is just about the most immoral and unethical proposal these arseholes could ever come up with. It was that policy that brought us to this scenario in the first place. Without wanting to sound too disrespectful, all I can say is that these guys, particularly Mr. Krugman are simply full of shit. The sad part is that they know it and don't care... the job pays well. They're the cause of all of America's, indeed the world's, financial and international conflict woes. And they should be held accountable for their crimes against humanity, right along with the GS crew.

    .
    May 22 01:50 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The shock and awe of Europe's $1T intervention is fading even faster than officials had feared, writes Mohamed El-Erian in a Financial Times guest post, and it's important to be aware that "the serial contamination of balance sheets is hitting the reality of scarcity."  [View news story]
    That's Einstein's view of what insanity is... doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result.
    May 16 05:50 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rail Freight Indicates Recovery in Canada Outpaces the U.S. [View article]
    It's not only China and India. In the past 6 months, Canada has signed trade treaties with more than 20 countries (it could be 40, I can't find the list right now, but its huge and growing). United Arab Emirates and Panama just in the past week. Canada has not been sitting idly by waiting for recovery in the health of its biggest trade partner. In fact Canada noticeably picked up the pace in forging fruitful and friendly trade relationships perhaps 5 years ago and has achieved a lot of success in reducing barriers with every country they've approached.

    Even internally, the three western provinces of B.C., Alberta and Saskatchewan recently completely removed interprovincial obstacles allowing credentials of tradesmen and professionals to be equally recognized in all three provinces. It seems Canada is doing all the right things when it comes to ensuring smooth and friendly commercial and trade operations both inside the country and internationally. The administration in the United States could have the same brilliant success if they wanted to. The most alarming question is why they aren't doing that.
    May 15 09:17 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
737 Comments
2,226 Likes