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Northern Dancer

Northern Dancer
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  • More bond weakness in the air ahead of $82B in Treasury auctions this week, as the 10-year yield is touching and re-touching 4% today. Yields on 30-year bonds are at their highest since Oct. 2007; maybe a "full V" for the broader economy? Currently: 30-year yield +0.03 to 4.83%; 10-year +0.05 to 3.99%; 5-year +0.06 to 2.72%; 2-year +0.06 to 1.16%.  [View news story]
    In our past lives, a high and rising yield curve usually meant the economy was improving. Today though, a high yield curve is most likely the bond market saying "we don't want your junk bonds anymore", starting with the longest dated maturities. We're probably going to see rates rise unabated on the 30 yr. first, then the 20 yr., 10 yr. and so on for a long time to come. Who knows if Bernanke will ever get the message? Does it really even matter, because the market is speaking loud and clear and it's not a good message. In today's global economic scenario, rising rates are nothing to cheer about considering the reasons for it.

    It's also probably true though, that the US bonds are still "less bad" than others. So rates will possibly rise across the globe in a deflationary spiral that would most likely hit European markets first, with the full effect not being felt in American markets until a short time later. Regardless of how it unfolds, I don't think anyone in their right minds can interpret rising rates as any sign of "happy days are here again", because they certainly aren't. The odds of default by a whole lot of major players is still far too great to get blindly euphoric and interpret rising rates as signs of glorious days ahead. The more rates rise, the more likely we should probably interpret it as a sign of deflationary forces at work rather than as a reaction to inflationary forces.
    Apr 5, 2010. 01:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Jobs Report Summary: No Huge Surprises but Enough to Spur Monday Morning Melt-Up [View article]
    I can't argue that. Perhaps fresh money will indeed rush into equities from mom and pop's bond funds. It could become a sort of self-fulfilling prophesy if that happens. Unfortunately, that would also fit the pattern seen at most market tops where the retail investor finally jumps on board for the final 2-3% of a rally. So even if this is what evolves, I wouldn't expect it to last long... certainly not 12 months... maybe one month would be my guess.
    Apr 3, 2010. 12:34 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • William Cohan wonders if women would have fared better: "One of the more intriguing - yet unanswerable - questions that has arisen in the wake of the financial crisis is whether all that alpha-male testosterone at the top of Wall Street firms helped to ratchet up the excessive risk-taking, inflating the housing and securitization bubbles."  [View news story]
    I'll go along with that. There is definitely a different thought process going on but women can reach any plateau in business that a man can... but usually she gets there via a different path. And I dare say, a less disruptive path. Women won't duke it out as readily as men will, but that doesn't diminish their determination to hit the target. To keep it in a militaristic perspective, I'd say that men and women both have great ninja-style methods that will get them to the goal, whereas if either gender is going to go barbarian, it will be the men.

    But overall, I'm wondering if women are less prone to screwing their nation and therefore less likely to being seen as "acceptably dirty candidates" for any position of corruption. Because when all is said and done, business is a form of warfare (or competition) and sometimes horrific and very unsavory deeds must be done. Just wondering.
    Apr 3, 2010. 12:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jobs Report Summary: No Huge Surprises but Enough to Spur Monday Morning Melt-Up [View article]
    If I'm living in denial, you're living in a vacuum totally void of knowledge, experience or common sense. I can only feel sorry for you when you spew such an amateurish statement as "there's no stopping the melt-up". Grow up dude and learn some basic economics priniciples before you start running off such claims. You're embarassing yourself with a sentence like that and obviously aren't even aware of it. I assure you.... this melt-up will end.

    "All the dips are met with buyers." BS. All the dips are bought by GS since the mutual funds and hedge funds were 97% invested 3 months ago. Sure, they had a little bit of cash infusion this week but basically the bulls were "all in" 3 months ago.

    "The last 6 months of activity and moving averages should have taught you that." LOL! Believe me son, I was studying a lot more than just moving averages 40 years ago. I'm not about to start taking lessons from the likes of you since I was trading back in the day when you were nothing but a twinkle in your dad's eye.
    Apr 2, 2010. 11:05 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mortgage Delinquencies Continue to Rise [View article]
    True enough, it came from Wall Street. What makes you think FRE and FNM aren't part of Wall Street? Instead of lashing out at TeresaE for being a "Santelli follower", when she said nothing to suggest such a thing (which wouldn't be a bad thing anyway since he's the only guy on that network who occasionally makes any sense), when are 'you' going to wake up and realize that FNM and FRE are just as much part of Wall Street as GS, BAC, AIG, C and the rest of that entire den of demons? TeresaE knows that but you apparently don't. If you'd bothered to read some of her comments in the past, you'd realize that she knows full well what the hell is going on.

    As she retorted to your statement "Fannie and Freddie... may have bought some of the mortgage bonds," I reiterate what she said... no sh*t!

    It's ok if you want to label me a Santelli follower too if you want to. And while you're at it you can call me a Peter Schiff follower and a Ron Paul fan and a supporter of the Constitution and anything else you think might be insulting. Man... you're all mixed up and confused I think.
    Apr 2, 2010. 10:51 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jobs Report Summary: No Huge Surprises but Enough to Spur Monday Morning Melt-Up [View article]
    In our house we say "Happy Easter and pass over the wine".
    Apr 2, 2010. 06:19 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 400,000 New Jobs and Counting [View article]
    LMAO! I don't mean to jump into anybody's personal discussions but I don't know what's funnier, calling somebody asswipe or your avatar (dfbell). My belly is still jiggling at both. Thanks for the serious chuckle.
    Apr 2, 2010. 06:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Understanding the Bear Case [View article]
    I don't agree with that, especially after a gain of almost 80% in one year and 42 straight up days. Where were you in March '09? I needed your advice back then. Today I have a different view:

    If you stay in this market----- you will be on a boat that rarely sinks so deeply.
    Apr 2, 2010. 05:32 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jobs Report Summary: No Huge Surprises but Enough to Spur Monday Morning Melt-Up [View article]
    Hold on there Newt! Why would you jump to such a quick conclusion on a Friday morning, only hours after the release of the jobs report that it's "enough to spur Monday morning melt-up"?

    I hope you aren't basing your opinion on a couple of hours of futures trading reaction with an entire weekend still before us. I hope you're not falling for the green Monday trick that was designed so that even a gerbil could recognize it. I hope you're not basing your early conclusion on that little piece of evil, especially after the markets have already received a 55 straight day dose of morphine (more like crack actually) by the local drug dealers located on Liberty Street. Haha, isn't that ironic... Liberty Street.

    You may be right about a surge on Monday, but I'll go on record as saying I doubt that day ends in the green. I still say that the fact that the jobs data was released on a day when the markets were closed has some sort of alternative motive, as yet unknown to anybody but the regime. I could be worng about that but nonetheless, although the markets are showing some pretty strong internals, they are also showing overbought conditions in some areas that are at greater extremes than even the 2007 highs or the March 2009 lows. I mean extreme in the context of "insane" extreme. Here's an article that is written with common sense, unlike this one which has sneaky little spins in every paragraph. I don't mean to be insulting, just telling you that I can see the agenda and I don't like it:

    The longer the irrational pumping is allowed to continue, the greater the odds that a simple correction is no longer an option. I say we're there already. We'll see Monday. You say it'll be up, I say it'll be down. Regardless, a new definition of "irrational exuberance" has been written. And articles crafted with a blatantly obvious agenda and spin such as this one are part of the overall reasons for it.

    I hope you have a wonderful and peaceful Easter weekend.
    Apr 2, 2010. 02:36 PM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Understanding the Bear Case [View article]
    "Granted, I do not have the impressive resume of a Mr. Kudlow, for example I was never dismissed from failed investment bank Lehman Brothers (LEHMQ.PK) for abusing alcohol and cocaine, but regardless I would like to offer a different view on interest rates."

    Bill L., what do you mean you don't have the impressive resume of Kudlow? Yours is far more impressive in my opinion. This article is part of your resume, and it's laced with logic and good solid analysis.

    In your first sentence you opened with a humble admission that you'd made an inaccurate call. I don't think it was inaccurate at all, because it made great sense. Obviously you're way of thinking is mathematical and logical... which is the only language I understand and is really the only available sound basis for good analysis. This was really a great article and I'm following you because when you have something to say, it will make sense and therefore I want to hear it. Common sense is still ultra valuable. Even in an insane Goldman universe it will ultimately prevail. Thanks for another really good contribution.
    Apr 2, 2010. 02:08 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Austerity has a price. Just ask Lithuania.  [View news story]
    Because credit is the engine of growth. It supplies funding to corporations who want to grow and offer you a job. That's how the great economies were built. The problem lies with the banks that abuse their own lines of credit (with the FED). The second problem lies with the fact that while the dollar has lost 96% of its value since the inception of the FED in 1913, all that loss has gone offshore as profits for the owners of the FED, who are not Americans. If the FED were American owned, at least with inflation, the banking profits would still be somewhere on American soil and owned by American citizens even though they're still bankers and as such are inherently and automatically as crooked as a dog's hind leg. I'm speaking of central bankers and not the hard working, good community banks that are really the heart and soul of a healthy, thriving and friendly "help thy neighbor" type of economy.

    Otherwise, judicious use of credit and not abusive use of credit can be a great thing. That's why we use credit, but it appears credit expansion has ended and the days of credit contraction are upon us. At least until the greedy central banks decide to share their windfall from the FED's printing presses by loaning some of it into the economy and assist the innocent smaller banks, we're never going to see any form of recovery... ever.
    Apr 2, 2010. 01:51 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Reasons Why Investors Should Ignore Friday's Jobs Report Entirely [View article]
    The only reason I can think of why the report was released on a day when the markets were closed was because the regime might not have been very comfortable with the reaction to it. Perhaps their agenda was to let the markets "think it over" over a weekend which in reality might not be a bad idea.

    On the other hand, it doesn't matter one iota whether the reports bear great news or horrible news... the market will be guided in the direction the FED and it's minion banks want it to go... for as long as they want. 6 weeks of straight up markets without as much as .25% correction should have made it abundantly clear by now that when the markets are chugging up on easily manipulated low volume like it has, and with as much as 25% of each day's trading in banks shares traded between banks, that their agenda shall be fulfilled come hell or high water.

    So since the FED is buying this market, I don't see that it really makes any difference that the report was released on Good Friday nor that there was any sinister plot behind that decision. The markets are totally disconnected from reality anyway, and is now only a tool for propping up the banks' otherwise destroyed balance sheets. This picture "Wall Street In Action" pretty much depicts what the stock markets have been reduced to... globally, and as such, it really doesn't matter when any gov't report is released nor what it says:
    Apr 2, 2010. 01:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Thursday Thrills - Watching the Fun [View article]
    I have little to say because this picture "Wall Street In Action" speaks more eloquently about the criminals than I could ever put into words:

    The markets are no longer for investment purposes. The credibility of equities markets around the world has been destroyed for all time. They are now only a useful tool that the bankers and the PPT use to trade stocks back and forth between each other in a completely effortless method of pumping up their otherwise destroyed balance sheets. Theoretically, there is nothing stopping them from running the S&P to 3,500 with impunity and without any correction or any jail time. So go along for the ride if you feel safe with it... but I sure don't trust those demons.

    I don't say this from a bearish or bullish perspective, I say it out of an abundantly clear vision of what these greedy whores are doing to humanity by setting us up for the greatest calamity of all time... and getting away with it.

    Apr 1, 2010. 11:58 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jim Chanos on Lehman: Where Are the Perp Walks? [View article]
    First to be strung up should be the SEC and all regulators, no questions asked, no trial necessary. Then we get serious.
    Mar 25, 2010. 01:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Paul Krugman on the House's final approval of the Senate healthcare bill: "There is, as always, a tunnel at the end of the tunnel: We’ll spend years if not decades fixing this thing. But kudos to all involved, with special praise for Nancy Pelosi, who is now a Speaker for the ages."  [View news story]
    I can see it now. Krugman with his hair in pigtails, bobbysocks, a pretty little skirt and pom-poms all a-blur as he cheers a team who's players are mostly psychotic social misfits. A speaker for the ages? It's been a long time since I barfed in disgust. I just barfed in disgust.
    Mar 21, 2010. 11:08 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment