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Northern Dancer

Northern Dancer
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  • Here It Comes: Consider Yourself Warned [View article]
    > Wrong, rates can stay where they are. <

    No they can't, not forever.

    If the Fed just keeps printing money forever as you're suggesting, those who loan funding to the USA by purchasing bonds and treasuries will eventually say, "I'll buy your bonds, but I need a little more incentive. How about 8%. If you won't pay me 8% for buying your paper that's decreasing in value every single week, I'm not loaning you any more money".

    True enough, the Fed can hold overnight rates at zero until the cows come home if they want to, but it's the market who determines interest rates on bonds and treasuries. And it's the 10 Yr. treasuries that determine mortgage rates. And it's the mortgage rates that determine the health or demise (hint: It'll be 'demise') of the real estate sector. And it's the real estate sector that has up until now acted as America's credit card.

    So you're right, the Fed can hold short term rates at zero forever. But interest rates will still climb to outrageous levels as inflation rages, 'especially' if they opt to let inflation rage as you suggest they 'could' do. But you're right, they 'could'. It doesn't even matter if the purchaser of all the treasuries and bonds in the future is the Fed itself, inflation would still rage and the dollar's decent to zero would just accelerate as long as the Fed refuses to support it. It's ultimately going to zero regardless of whether they support it or not. Their only power at the end of the day is to slow that process. And there's only one way they can do that. The reality is that their hand will be forced and they "will" raise rates.

    .
    Jan 7 06:35 PM | 82 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here It Comes: Consider Yourself Warned [View article]
    You're suggesting that the theory of evolution has been proven one way or the other, and that you're in the "right" camp and Dr. Paul is in the "wrong" camp. Regardless, that's hardly a reason to excuse an American giant like Ron Paul. For one thing, he's the leader of a very, very small group of American heroes (perhaps 6) in congress who recognize and promote the fact that the American Constitution is still a valid document and not a piece of asswipe for the bankers to abuse.

    That's how it's "possible for an educated person to take Ron Paul seriously about anything". You took the blue pill. Ron Paul "is" the red pill.
    Jan 8 11:11 AM | 52 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here It Comes: Consider Yourself Warned [View article]
    I agree on all counts. But in reality, they'll have to make at least some sort of "apparent" effort to support the dollar in order not to become the most hated mega-pariah in the history of the planet. But let's say they don't raise short term rates, and the longer rates go off the charts. We'd have hyper-inflation and crushing interest rates probably over 30%. Mission accomplished. But they just won't allow it to happen with such blatant, in your face contempt. Or would they? You know, with the arrogance shown so far, they just might. Maybe you're right.

    .
    Jan 7 08:23 PM | 37 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Inflation: Why Markets Ignored the Fed Rate Hike [View article]
    If Ben is concerned about inflation at this point in time, then we should have full confidence in seeing our housing values take off like a rocket in the next 6 months and thereafter. That clearly isn't what the future has in store for our housing prices.

    The move by the Fed, in my opinion, really was much ado about nothing since it doesn't really directly affect borrowing costs for the actual economy. It was a meaningless distraction because in reality, the Fed is more horrified of deflation at this stage of the game (and for the next couple of years). And they're absolutely losing the battle to defeat it.

    We're about to go through a commercial real estate implosion and along with it the most severe credit contraction we've ever experienced. That is not inflationary. That is the very description of deflation. Any major default (the mother of all credit contractions) by any huge American corporation, any American state or any sovereign country, large or small, would cause heavy dollar demand and a frenzy into the perceived "safety" of the dollar and dollar denominated assets. How quickly we forget how the Dubai crisis affected the dollar. Dubai was just the tip of the iceberg.

    If the reader is convinced that their home is going to be worth 30% more in 3 years than it is today, and that all the empty commercial real estate space is suddenly going to be filled up over the next 6 months, then perhaps the author is right and inflation is about to take off immediately. But unfortunately that's not what lies around the next corner. If Ben is horrified of inflation, then he'd be horrified of raising rates because rising rates would force the USA's debt to become so expensive to service, that default would be the only option. And higher rates have deflationary affects on everything else (after all, aren't rising rates the weapon used to fight inflation?) Rising rates are a double edged sword pointed directly at the USAs economic heart. Ben's screwed one way or another and he's (the Fed is) going to take us down with them.

    Ultimately the author will be proven right and inflation will indeed become a raging monster, and the dollar will rightfully crash (when they eventually start lending again in a failed effort to re-ignite the economy). But not before the credit excesses of the past decades (especially the past one decade) have been dealt with. It's time to pay the piper, and that payment entails credit contraction, the *disappearance* of trillions of dollars that were created in past decades through loans, and a resulting temporary demand for the dollar. Ben might be trying to force the outcome he wants, but ultimately market forces are at work here, and they're dictating the outcome, not Ben.
    Feb 21 10:12 AM | 33 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Reasons for the S&P to Revisit the July 2009 Lows Imminently [View article]
    thiazole it appears to me that the buyers were exhausted long ago. Back in early Oct. the volume metrics on every single index changed in such a glaring fashion that it amazed me... once I spotted it. lol

    It was then that we began to see up days occurring on declining volume and down days on increasing volume, without fail and on every single index and sector. It even became apparent in the dollar as proxied by UUP.

    Then it became apparent that on the low volume days, City and GS, JPM, BAC and the rest of that drunken hoard of thieves were trading the majority of shares between each other. IOW, there are basically "no" buyers left out there. A prime example? Yesterday, 1.2 billion shares were traded in Citi shares alone. That's pure nonsense, driving a zombie like that up 30% in 3 days and in the process accounting for a full 20-25% of all shares traded on the entire NYSE.

    Further evidence of that is that when they try to unload any larger volume at all, the market falls hard... again, because there really are no buyers. The buyers were exhausted long ago and in my opinion don't even exist any more for all intents and purposes. So I think the logical conclusion is that the manipulators have painted themselves into a corner and have virtually guaranteed that when a correction comes, it's going to land with a loud and resounding thump somewhere so far down from here that.... it's gonna be ugly and the saddest part is that it didn't have to have been set up to do so. But the bankers just can't leave a market alone. They have to screw it up completely. Otherwise they aren't doing their new job, which at one time decades ago used to be banking.... lending money into corporate America so that it could grow the economy, provide jobs and security. Nowadays, banks exist for no other reason than to hoard that seed money provided by the Fed and use it to suck the markets and our children's and grand children's futures dry. Mutual funds are 97% invested. Basically the bulls are all-in. There are no buyers left.
    Mar 12 05:27 PM | 31 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wednesday Preview: Worldwide Rally Worries Bears [View article]
    It's become pretty clear what's going on here and what's going to happen. I've been bearish long enough and I've finally come to realize that fundamentals and technicals no longer matter. The banksters have enough funds to run the Dow beyond 98,000 and it appears they're going to do so, economics be damned. It's clear.

    So once again we've entered the realm of irrational exuberance and what we're going to witness (apparently this is just the beginning) is a stock market that goes to multiples never seen before (even higher than in the tech bubble daze) while the economy crashes around us. The reason the economy is going to crash around us while we witness one of the most disconnected stock market manias of all time is the same reason we're going to witness that very mania. The banks are using all the Fed seed money to run the markets (and in the process artificially repair their pitiful balance sheets) come hell or high water, and they're not sharing those funds by lending it into the economy. Therefore, economic expansion is impossible. Make sense? You bet it does. Not only does that makes sense that the Fed and GS make no sense... it's their style.

    Get ready folks, it's become clear the disconnect is way beyond complete, the bankers know we can see it, and they don't give a damn. Enjoy the ride. I plan on going long at the next pullback (if there is ever going to be one) and just hold my nose and go along for the dirty corrupt ride. Just like the rest of you, I have no choice. This is no longer a stock market as shown by the fact that every single major index and every single sector index are all marching in tandem to the very second, both up and down, 100% of the time.

    p.s.: Please don't bother reporting this post as an abusive comment. I already accidentally did that myself. lol
    Mar 17 01:38 PM | 25 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nowhere to Go Economically but Up? [View article]
    Everyone has the right to see a silver lining in the clouds if they want to search for it. I can't see it. There's one overriding factor that in my view trumps all others. And that is the fact that the Fed is painfully aware that rising rates will unquestionably force the US to default, eventually. The one thing that would force higher rates beyond the shadow of a doubt is inflation. And the single biggest factor that contributes to inflation is lending, not the Fed's printing machines. They only print "seed money", and as long as that seed money is not allowed to enter the economy via lending, inflation is more or less under control.

    What they're doing right now is an experiment, one that's eventually going to blow up. If there's no lending, the economy won't expand. It can't. The best it can do is stumble along just as it is now, while consumers pull in their spending horns and the deficit balloons another trillion this year. If anybody thinks there's suddenly going to be a whopping increase in consumer spending to get the economy going again, I'd like them to tell me where that money will be coming from. Are the newly homeless and jobless going to suddenly get jobs at the rate of 300,000 per month? Is there going to be a sudden surge in home equity loans in an atmosphere of decreasing home values and a "no lending" policy? Is everybody who's employed going to get a great big raise this year, at a time when jobs are hard to find? I don't think so.

    So the consumer is absolutely not going to bail us out this time. The economy *will not and can not* expand when funds are held back from the economy. Steve's title says "Nowhere To Go Economically But Up?" At this time, unless the philosophy of "no lending" changes, "Up" is the only option that's impossible. And what are the odds the banks will begin lending again when lending is the key that pops the lid off the genie's bottle? The Fed's trapped, and so are we.
    Jan 17 10:50 AM | 20 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shorting the Tea Party Activists [View article]
    Please don't think of Glenn Beck as having any leadership role with the "Tea Party people". He's a snake who flip-flops every week to suit his populist agenda.

    And please don't refer to the "Tea Party people" as some sort of radical fringe group. They are hard core 'true Americans' who honor the founding fathers and that wonderful document they wrote called the Constitution. It's a movement that is gaining steam so fast that some of the main stream media can no longer deny their existence as something good. Oh yeah, the MSM will continue for a while longer bashing "the tea-baggers" (as they mockingly refer to them) with every dirty trick of spin they can think of, but the day isn't far off when the MSM will be eating their words. The Tea Party people are sending a message loud and clear, and the media arm of the Fed can try to spin it any way they want, but they're not going to stop the movement. It's one of America's best hopes. Those who bash the "Tea Party people" are bashing the Ron Paul points of view. If you bash Ron Paul's views and his efforts to audit the Fed, then you might as well show your true colors, go get a job on Wall Street and join the team of blood sucking vampire squids who are raping America to death.
    .
    Feb 23 03:01 AM | 19 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Job Losses Demystified [View article]
    On Nov 15 03:00 PM SAS70 wrote:

    >I asked how about money to replace my heaters or new overhead cranes or maybe some kind of voucher so I can buy forklifts. They say we have a few programs like that but they currently don't have any funding available.<

    But they have plenty of funding available for golf carts. The administration is just dancing to the tune of their owners. They've got a program in place to provide a non-productive, consumption themed idiotic program that would give a golf cart to everybody in America who wants one (or 12, there's no limit). How insane is that? But they have no intention of providing funding for people like SAS70 who would do something productive with it. Hell, if given a little help like that he might even hire someone.

    The people who own the administration are doing exactly what they've planned for decades, the wanton destruction of the USA economy. They want it destroyed, and they're purposely causing it right before our very eyes. I hope they've all got neck insurance.
    Nov 15 03:48 PM | 18 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Connection Between Low Volume and High Frequency Trading [View article]
    "There is a conspiracy theory about volume, that the low-volume rally implies some kind of market manipulation."

    No, low volume doesn't imply manipulation but it makes manipulation so much easier. For example, when every single index representing every single sector takes a whopping surge in price at the same precise instant in time, right across the board on a massive volume spike, we know full well that "everybody's getting some sugar" from the manipulators. Let there be no mistaking or denying what volume spikes like that, which are seen several times every single trading day in every single index at the exact same fraction of a second within the day, mean. They mean manipulation, end of story. That's not deniable, period. It's too visible to be deniable, ok?

    "As regular readers know, I regard conspiracy theories as uninformed, naive, and mistaken."

    In all due respect to a writer I like, that statement is the most naive "head in the sand" statement I've read on Seeking Alpha so far in April. I dare say you and your family's future are in grave danger if you truly mean that. I implore you, for your own good and for the safety of your family's future, pull your head out and open your eyes. I suppose you think the bird/pig/man/swine concoction flu "pandemic" was a natural occurrence? For god's sake, please don't tell us that you or any of your family members took the vaccines.
    Apr 14 07:29 AM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jobs Report Summary: No Huge Surprises but Enough to Spur Monday Morning Melt-Up [View article]
    Hold on there Newt! Why would you jump to such a quick conclusion on a Friday morning, only hours after the release of the jobs report that it's "enough to spur Monday morning melt-up"?

    I hope you aren't basing your opinion on a couple of hours of futures trading reaction with an entire weekend still before us. I hope you're not falling for the green Monday trick that was designed so that even a gerbil could recognize it. I hope you're not basing your early conclusion on that little piece of evil, especially after the markets have already received a 55 straight day dose of morphine (more like crack actually) by the local drug dealers located on Liberty Street. Haha, isn't that ironic... Liberty Street.

    You may be right about a surge on Monday, but I'll go on record as saying I doubt that day ends in the green. I still say that the fact that the jobs data was released on a day when the markets were closed has some sort of alternative motive, as yet unknown to anybody but the regime. I could be worng about that but nonetheless, although the markets are showing some pretty strong internals, they are also showing overbought conditions in some areas that are at greater extremes than even the 2007 highs or the March 2009 lows. I mean extreme in the context of "insane" extreme. Here's an article that is written with common sense, unlike this one which has sneaky little spins in every paragraph. I don't mean to be insulting, just telling you that I can see the agenda and I don't like it:

    seekingalpha.com/artic...

    The longer the irrational pumping is allowed to continue, the greater the odds that a simple correction is no longer an option. I say we're there already. We'll see Monday. You say it'll be up, I say it'll be down. Regardless, a new definition of "irrational exuberance" has been written. And articles crafted with a blatantly obvious agenda and spin such as this one are part of the overall reasons for it.

    I hope you have a wonderful and peaceful Easter weekend.
    Apr 2 02:36 PM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • America's Biggest Economic Mistakes - One Made, The Other About to Be [View article]
    Man, how true is that? I'm being 100% serious when I contend that if the federal government were, over the course of the next 2 years, literally cut in half, and the books of laws cut (rationally culled) by the same amount, the country would operate not twice as well, but 10 times as well.
    Jan 10 12:14 PM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sovereign Default: Stuck Between Dire and Disastrous [View article]
    > Being the world's reserve currency just means we can run up bigger bills, but if we go the route of printing money to pay those bills, that is devaluation and fraud, as the value of a dollar will diminish; and that is tantamount to default. <

    Then the USA, thanks to the foreign owned Fed, has been committing fraud (rather innocently in the early years, no doubt) since 1913. After all, 96% of the value of the dollar has been lost (stolen) to the hidden and fraudulent tax known as "inflation". That is not only fraud, it's treason. Because through the process of purchasing the traitors in congress in order to wrestle control away from the US government, the owners of the Fed (and its partners in crime) have shamelessly and continuously stomped all over the Constitution of The United States of America at every turn. That is treason, end of story. And so is purposeful debasement of the currency of the realm. The penalties for treason are clearly laid out in law:

    www.runtogold.com/2009.../


    SECTION 19. And be it further enacted, That if any of the gold or silver coins which shall be struck or coined at the said mint shall be debased or made worse as to the proportion of fine gold or fine silver therein contained, or shall be of less weight or value than the same ought to be pursuant to the directions of this act, through the default or with the connivance of any of the officers or persons who shall be employed at the said mint, for the purpose of profit or gain, or otherwise with a fraudulent intent, * * * every such officer or person who shall be guilty of any * * * of the said offenses, shall be deemed guilty of felony, and shall suffer death.

    Does it not make sense that a gallows be permanently installed in front of the Fed building and be used frequently... until the message has become clear?

    .
    Feb 14 02:46 PM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. and Energy Independence: Hard Numbers [View article]
    It kind of makes you wonder what their agena really is, when it appears they're doing everything in their power to demonize Canada's oil and make it appear to be a sin to buy it. Canada has a whole lot of other places to sell her resources although her relationship with the USA as the major buyer makes the most sense.... until somebody in the US makes the decision that it doesn't. Al Gore's one such clown. Canada has been a steady, reliable, fiscally solid source of high grade fuels for decades and there's no reason to disrupts that great relationship.

    As if the USA didn't have enough problems already. It's not going to help anybody by pissing off a valuable ally and good neighbor for no valid reason. Canada is already aggressively forging new trade relationships, partly out of the common sense of it, and partly out of frustration with the USA's often difficult policies. Canada is held is high regard by most nations and has no problems forming fruitful and friendly relationships. In 2009 alone, free trade deals were signed with Jordan, Panama, Columbia to name but a few. But the seemingly endless jabbing from south of the border is infuriating to Canada and should be infuriating Americans as well.

    www.theglobeandmail.co.../
    Jan 9 04:37 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Is the Yield Spread Telling Us? [View article]
    It's not so important *that* rates are moving, what's important is "why" they're moving in the direction they are. Rates on longer term paper like 30 Yr. bonds would move up if inflation is a threat, which itself is interpreted as an expanding economy when that isn't necessarily the case. Rising rates on long bonds could also mean "there's too damned much supply coming down the pipe and enough is enough already". IOW higher rates really means investors aren't very interested in buying long bonds. And at this point in time, I don't think they ever will be again. Why would they, when the amount of money creation we've seen in Obama's term is more than all presidents before him combined? If that's not a recipe for total collapse of the dollar and bonds, what is? So I wouldn't be reading a steep yield curve as portending anything positive. 20 years ago maybe, but certainly not today.
    Jan 19 08:05 AM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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