Michael Ashton has been a recognized leader in developing the U.S. inflation derivatives market. He traded the first interbank U.S. CPI swaps in 2003 and, as a dealer, was a primary liquidity-provider in that market for two large banks. He represented about one-third of interbank swaps volume during his tenures at those firms. He invented and was the sole market-maker for the CME CPI Futures contract. He has written and spoken extensively about the use of inflation-indexed products for hedging real exposures, and has written more broadly in a commentary format about the rates markets and macroeconomy. Mr. Ashton is currently the managing principal at Enduring Investments LLC. His comments on this site and others are not posted in that role, and no opinions of his should be construed to be recommendations of or to reflect the views of his employer. He recently published "What's Wrong With Money? The Biggest Bubble of All."
Methodology: setups require certain criteria to be met before trades can be executed, which include weighted statistical studies on several indicators of price, breadth, volume, and sentiment . Amount of risk taken is proportional to how many indicators are aligned. I mainly trade market indexes, to a much lesser extent commodities, currencies, very rarely individual stocks, and always with defined risk.
MBA with a concentration in finance, The State University of New York. BS in management, concentrations in accounting, and finance. Chartered Market Technician candidate (all exams passed). +6 years professional trading experience.
Publishing Schedule for 2013: A long term update will be put out on the first of the month discussing the long term trend and long term indicators. Short term updates will be published on Mondays and Wednesday discussing the short term indicators and price action. A short comment will be published on Tuesdays and Thursdays. Friday's will have a short market update, as well as a full sentiment update and review for the week.
If you are reading this to find out who I am because something I just said pissed you off, let me take this opportunity to apologize.
If you are reading this for any other reason, surely you must have something better to do. If that sounds rude, see above.
Charles Hugh Smith writes the Of Two Minds blog (www.oftwominds.com/blog.html) which covers an eclectic range of timely topics: finance, housing, Asia, energy, longterm trends, social issues, health/diet/fitness and sustainability. From its humble beginnings in May 2005, Of Two Minds now attracts some 200,000 visits a month.
Charles also contributes to AOL's Daily Finance site (www.dailyfinance.com) and has written eight books, most recently "Survival+: Structuring Prosperity for Yourself and the Nation" (2009) which is available in a free version on his blog.
Congressman Ron Paul of Texas enjoys a national reputation as the premier advocate for liberty in politics today. Dr. Paul is the leading spokesman in Washington for limited constitutional government, low taxes, free markets, and a return to sound monetary policies based on commodity-backed currency. He is known among both his colleagues in Congress and his constituents for his consistent voting record in the House of Representatives: Dr. Paul never votes for legislation unless the proposed measure is expressly authorized by the Constitution. In the words of former Treasury Secretary William Simon, Dr. Paul is the "one exception to the Gang of 535" on Capitol Hill.
Ron Paul was born and raised in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. He graduated from Gettysburg College and the Duke University School of Medicine, before proudly serving as a flight surgeon in the U.S. Air Force during the 1960s. He and his wife Carol moved to Texas in 1968, where he began his medical practice in Brazoria County. As a specialist in obstetrics/gynecology, Dr. Paul has delivered more than 4,000 babies! He and Carol, who reside in Lake Jackson, Texas, are the proud parents of five children and have seventeen grandchildren.
While serving in Congress during the late 1970s and early 1980s, Dr. Paul's limited-government ideals were not popular in Washington. He served on the House Banking committee, where he was a strong advocate for sound monetary policy and an outspoken critic of the Federal Reserve's inflationary measures. He also was a key member of the Gold Commission, advocating a return to a gold standard for our currency. He was an unwavering advocate of pro-life and pro-family values. Dr. Paul consistently voted to lower or abolish federal taxes, spending, and regulation, and used his House seat to actively promote the return of government to its proper constitutional levels. In 1984, he voluntarily relinquished his House seat and returned to his medical practice.
Dr. Paul returned to Congress in 1997 to represent the 14th Congressional district of Texas. He serves on the House Financial Services Committee, the International Relations committee, and the Joint Economic Committee. On the Financial Services Committee, Rep. Paul serves as the vice-chairman of the Oversight and Investigations subcommittee. He continues to advocate a dramatic reduction in the size of the federal government and a return to constitutional principles.
Dr. Paul is the author of several books, including The Revolution: A Manifesto, Pillars of Prosperity, The Case for Gold, and A Foreign Policy of Freedom: Peace, Commerce, and Honest Friendship. He has been a distinguished counselor to the Ludwig von Mises Institute, and is widely quoted by scholars and writers in the fields of monetary policy, banking, and political economy. He has received many awards and honors during his career in Congress, from organizations such as the National Taxpayers Union, Citizens Against Government Waste, the Council for a Competitive Economy, Young Americans for Freedom, and countless others.
Dr. Paul's consistent voting record prompted one Congressman to comment that "Ron Paul personifies the Founding Fathers' ideal of the citizen-statesman. He makes it clear that his principles will never be compromised, and they never are." Another Congresswoman added that "There are few people in public life who, through thick and thin, rain or shine, stick to their principles. Ron Paul is one of those few."
Reggie Middleton is the personification of the freethinking maverick — the ultimate nonconformist as it applies to macro strategies, investment, and analysis. He uses his background and knowledge in new media, distributed computing, risk management, insurance, financial engineering, real estate, corporate valuation, and financial analysis to pursue, analyze, and capitalize on global macroeconomic opportunities.
Finding most available research lacking, both in quality and quantity, Mr. Middleton assembled his own talented research staff. As forensic research is a lynchpin for his own investing, "to actually put food on the table," he stands behind it as doing what it is supposed to do - illustrate, elucidate and educate. He does not sell advice or research. He is an entrepreneur who exists outside of mainstream corporate America and Wall Street. This allows him the freedom to do things that many cannot—perform without conflicts of interest and corporate politics.
Mr. Middleton prides himself on developing some of the highest quality, actionable research available - regardless of price. He welcomes any and all to peruse his blog of freely available analysis, opinion and participatory social media; use his custom tools, download files, interact with the community and make critical comparisons from a results orientated perspective.
Reggie believes ideas and implementations are improved and fine-tuned when bounced off of the collective intellect of the many, in lieu of that of the few - in essence, a form of collaborative open source financial analysis.
Visit his blog Boom Bust Blog. (http://boombustblog.com/)
Tim Iacono is the founder of the investment website 'Iacono Research', a subscription service providing market commentary and investment advisory services specializing in natural resources.
He also writes a financial blog known as 'The Mess That Greenspan Made', a sometimes irreverent look at the many and varied after-effects of the Greenspan term at the Federal Reserve.
Use the links below to visit Tim's website/blog.
Paolo Pezzutti has been active in the financial markets for over 20 years and is currently based in America. He has his own trading blog at short-termtrading.blogspot.com (http://short-termtrading.blogspot.com/), and contributes to other websites including Working Money, Advantage.com and Daily Speculations. He also writes for various magazines including Technical Analysis of Stocks And Commodities, Traders', and The Traders' Journal.
HORAN Capital Advisors (http://www.horancapitaladvisors.com) is an SEC registered investment advisor that manages investment portfolios for individuals and institutions. Our firm utilizes a disciplined investing approach that should create wealth for our clients over time. Our investment bias is to invest in companies that generate a steady return over time, i.e., singles and doubles. This singles and doubles approach tends to lead to investments in higher quality dividend growth/cash flow growth companies. On the other hand, there are times when a company's stock price seems to be trading below its fair valuation. Short term gains are possible in these situations. I have been managing investment portfolios for individuals and institutions for over fifteen years and believe investing is like running a marathon and not a sprint. Taking the road less traveled, more often than not, leads to higher returns. Visit: The Blog of HORAN Capital Advisors at (http://disciplinedinvesting.blogspot.com/)
Jason Hamlin is the founder of Gold Stock Bull and publishes a highly-rated investment newsletter focused on strategies for profiting in the bull markets in gold, silver, energy and agriculture. Mr. Hamlin has a background analyzing charts and trends for the world’s largest market research company, is versed in fundamental and technical analysis and has consulted to Fortune 500 companies around the globe. Jason is a cycles investor, student of Austrian economics and speaks regularly at investment conferences throughout North America. The Gold Stock Bull newsletter is focused on finding junior mining companies that are undervalued relative to their peers.
We are NO LONGER and HAVE NOT BEEN contributing articles to SeekingAlpha since 2012. Visit us on our SmartKnowledgeU YouTube channel or at https://www.smartknowledgeu.com for up-to-date information.
After earning an undergraduate degree from the University of Pennsylvania and two master degrees (a Master in Public Policy and a Master in Business Administration) from the University of Texas at Austin, J.S. Kim started working within the Private Wealth Management division of one of the largest financial institutions in America. In 2005, dissatisfied with the ethics of the commercial investment industry and to be able to serve his clients in a manner consistent with his own commitment to integrity and honor, JS left the corporate world behind to launch his own company, SmartKnowledgeU™ (http://smartknowledgeu.com/), a fiercely independent investment research, consulting and education firm in 2006.
Edward is a macro economist, who specializes in growth and productivity theory, demographic processes and their impact on macro performance, and the underlying dynamics of migration flows. Edward is based in Barcelona, and is currently engaged in research into the impact of aging, longevity, fertility and migration on economic growth. He is also working on a book which has the working title: Population, The Ultimate Non-renewable Resource? He is a regular contributor to a number of economics weblogs, including India Economy Blog, A Fistful of Euros, Global Economy Matters and Demography Matters. He was, in fact, a founding member of all these weblogs. Edward follows in detail the Indian, Italian, Spanish, German and Japanese economies. He also has a more than a passing interest in the economies of Turkey and Brazil and in the emerging economies of Eastern Europe. Visit Edward's sites:
Edward Hugh Too (http://edwardhughtoo.blogspot.com/)
Global Economy Does Matter (http://globaleconomydoesmatter.blogspot.com/index.html)
Demography Matters (http://demographymatters.blogspot.com/)
I have varying interests. I seem to have an abillity to look at various views and assess what is going on. My short term memory is very weak. My 143 IQ helps me analyse my known information. I am not comfortable around other high IQ people because I see too much analysis using too little data. I am good at seeing what does not fit. And, if I have enough information, I can usually see an alternative reality which fits known information better than most people can. I have a BS degree, but believe any degree has a limit to its value. I have seen many financial situations in my life as a worker, manager and owner of a business. I know reality is not always the same as belief. I have lived life with no excess spending money, and in situations where I had all I wanted and more. I also have lost more wealth in some in my business some years than I ever made yearly earnings wise. My business is one bad year away from becoming an exbusiness. Choices are limited. Possibillities are good. Despite my efforts, reality may be too great.
Upon receiving my Masters degree in Music from Connecticut's Hartt School of Music, I took a job at a local Friendly's serving ice cream, where I perfected the disgruntled, comatose look, as seen in the photo at left. As a first-time participant in the American economy by way of fast-food, I noted the vileness and squalor into which our country was plummeting.
Now, as an SA commentator, I look forward to multiplying my earnings, once I get some, and settling down as a prime member of society, living out my remaining years in the luxury every red-blooded American deserves.
I currently live in a barn with my saxophones, watching America decline around me.
Bill is Chief Investment Officer of Luby Asset Management LLC, an investment management company in Tiburon, California. He also publishes the VIX and More (http://vixandmore.blogspot.com/) blog and an investment newsletter. His research and trading interests focus on volatility, market sentiment, technical analysis, ETPs and options. Bill was previously a business strategy consultant. When not trading or blogging, he can often be found running, hiking, and kayaking in Northern California. Bill has a BA from Stanford University and an MBA from Carnegie-Mellon University. Visit Bill's blog, VIX and More (http://vixandmore.blogspot.com/)
Dr. Chris Martenson is an independent economist and author of a popular website, ChrisMartenson.com. His Crash Course video series explores the intertwining significance of the “three E’s”—the economy, energy, and environment and offers articulate, dynamic insight into the workings of our monetary system.
Chris earned a PhD in neurotoxicology from Duke University, and an MBA from Cornell University. His background as an educator helps him animate complex material with wisdom and humor. A fellow of the Post Carbon Institute, Chris’s work has appeared on PBS and been cited by the Washington Post. He is a contributor to the Huffington Post and FinancialSense.com.
Chris is an accomplished presenter who has offered the Crash Course seminar all over the United States. The online course has been translated into several languages, and been viewed nearly a million times. His website offers ongoing commentary and rigorously factual analysis into financial and energy-related issues and events as they unfold.
Babak’s blog, tradersnarrative.com (http://www.tradersnarrative.com/), mainly covers the U.S markets but also dabbles into European and Canadian markets - with special attention given to the income trust market in Canada. Within the U.S. markets, most of his attention is concentrated on timing, sentiment and new ways of analyzing and trying to understand markets.
Babak used to be quite active on trading messageboards but after the noise to signal ratio got out of whack, he decided to instead dedicate his time and resources to a blog where he would have more control and interact with others on his own terms.
Other than selfish reasons, Babak created his blog as a way to give back in some small way and repay his debt to the many others who have given so generously of their time and talents. Since he didn’t have a mentor to guide him when he started out, he is hoping that this blog will help others who are considering the same journey. While he doesn’t regret not having a mentor, because it allowed him to grow and find his own individual path, he admits that it would have been nice to have a nudge here and there to cut down on time spent pursuing dead ends and reading useless books (cough Bernstein cough).
In his free time Babak enjoys trapping mimes in plexiglas cages, then watching from a distance to time how long it takes passers-by to figure it out.
Chief Investment Officer, Stanford Wealth Management. Retired senior exec of Charles Schwab. 36 years active and reserve military service -- 6 in special operations, 30 in the intelligence community. Geopolitical analyst.
Author -- investment book Bringing Home the Gold.
Editor -- The Investor’s Edge®. In the 16 years from inception through year-end 2015, the Investor’s Edge® Growth & Value Portfolio increased in value from $250,000 to $1,038,453. That same $250,000 invested in the S&P 500 rose to just $422,905. (Past results are no guarantee of future performance; maybe those 16 years were pure luck.)
Featured in Forbes, Barrons, The Wall Street Journal, Financial World, Wall Street Transcript, Global Investing, Welling on Wall Street, etc.
If you have a $500,000 portfolio ($250,000 for solely mutual funds & ETFs) you may contact me for a no-obligation "second opinion." firstname.lastname@example.org.
Philstockworld.com is the fastest growing stock and option newsletter on the Web. "High Finance for Real People - Fun and Profits" is our motto and our Basic and Premium Chat Sessions offer readers a chance to speak to Phil live during the trading day as well as authors like Optrader, Sabrient, Income Trader and Trend Trader - who send out Alerts during the market sessions and discuss trade ideas live with Members.
We even have a new low-cost "Trend Watcher" Membership that lets readers view our chat sessions without directly participating a great solution for people who want to test-drive the site and profit from our experience! Trend Watchers get to view all of our Chat Archives, weekly Webinars - as well as the amazing PSW Wiki, which gives you Phil's recent opinions and trade ideas as well as technical and fundamental analysis of hundreds of stocks that we follow.
Philip R. Davis is a founder of Phil's Stock World (www.philstockworld.com), a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders. Mr. Davis is a serial entrepreneur, having founded software company Accu-Title, a real estate title insurance software solution, and is also the President of the Delphi Consulting Corp., an M&A consulting firm that helps large and small companies obtain funding and close deals. He was also the founder of Accu-Search, a property data corporation that was sold to DataTrace in 2004 and Personality Plus, a precursor to eHarmony.com. Phil was a former editor of a UMass/Amherst humor magazine and it shows in his writing -- which is filled with colorful commentary along with very specific ideas on stock option purchases (Phil rarely holds actual stocks).
Visit: Phil's Stock World (www.philstockworld.com)
I am both an economist (three year M.A., Univ. of Chicago, 1968, in economics PhD program) and a lawyer (J.D., Univ. of Chicago, 1971). I had a Woodrow Wilson National Fellowship in economics and the good fortune to study at Chicago under seven Nobel Laureates in economics (received before or after -- Milton Friedman, Robert Mundell, Theodore Schultz, George Stigler, Ronald Coase, Robert Fogel and Gary Becker). I only left economics and the PhD program after finshing the course work and core prelims and contrary to the wishes and advice of Milton Friedman, because having decent grades out of a top law school had much more remunerative prospects then than being an economist. I wanted to return later at some point and finish up, but the opportunity cost was too high.
I practiced law, mostly in a large firm, doing large scale jury litigation all over the country in a broad range of areas for notable and not so notable clients. I also handled appeals. I carefully kept out of politics because my observation has been good trial lawyers make poor politicians, and politicians who return to law are usually not good lawyers -- good lobbyists and influence peddlers perhaps -- but never good trial lawyers. Their concepts of honesty and truth have been debased along with their work ethic.
I believe seriously in economics and have somewhat kept track of the field, although I do not believe all I read. I do not seriously believe in law, although I practiced it quite successfully for thirty years and created significant new law, all the way to the U.S. Supreme Court. I have been investing since the early sixties when gains on airline bonds substantially helped put me through college. I have appeared in past volumes of Marquis, Who’s Who in the World, Who’s Who in America, Who’s Who in American Law, Who’s Who in Finance and Industry and others.
I retired early and have been circumnavigating the world on my own sailboat for the last several years. I survived the tsunami in Pago Pago, American Samoa where my boat suffered minor damage and 112 people died within two miles of me including some friends and left there for New Zealand for repairs but then my electronic autopilot failed in route and I had to hand steer to Neiafu, Vava'u, Tonga. In Tonga then I was directly hit by Cyclone Rene (= hurricane in northern hemisphere) with 95 knot sustained winds and 115 knot gusts, but I was prepared and sustained no damage. I was sheltered in the harbor bay from bad seas but not the winds. I stayed in Tonga for the cyclone season in the South Pacific last year and will spend this cyclone season in American Samoa. I am busily engaged in boat improvements/repairs, basking in the sun, sightseeing on bicycle, writing a bit and I am enjoying photography, too.
I graduated with an economics degree and joined an investment house where I learned the investment business using other peoples money. I eventually started my own finance company which I sold a few years ago. I have been a fanatical stock and commodities player for over 25 years. Finally, to understand my Pseudonym (Carl Spackler), just go watch the movie Caddyshack. He is a central character in the film.
MBA University of Chicago, BA Management, AD Electronics
Retired Tech Industry Executive
Interests - Economics (Global, Macro, Micro), Technology
Investments - Large multinational stocks with dividend growth. Option trading using near-term covered calls and acquisitions using put options to amplify dividends. Occasional trades on equity holdings.
Michael J. Clark was born and raised in Sinclair, Wyoming. He is a poet, novelist, artist, historian, and market analyst.
He began investing in 1985. He read ˜The Technical Analysis of Stock Trends" by Edwards and Magee and was hooked. From 1985-1987 he made astonishing gains in the stock market; and then stocks collapsed in 1987. Since then he has been attempting to 'solve the stock market', with many failures and some successes. The system he developed, called CGTS, Clark's Gate Timining System, is algorithm-based. What this fancy word means is that he proposes a series of necessary steps based on technical analysis propositions, which, when met, trigger trading signals. His four main trading systems are up a combined 31% for 2015.
From his website:
Now that QE is supposedly ending, markets are already becoming more tradable, with opportunities to make money on both long and short trades at the same time. QE tended to make all boats rise, except precious metals. This made it more difficult to play the short side of the markets. Now, both sides seem to be more accessible to successful trades. This will also be more of a challenge for investors. The FED will have to eventually abandon the markets to their own destinies, and stop spending trillions to protect investors AND corporations from their mistakes. As this begins to happen (I am not sure it has happened yet), informed advice will become even more necessary for investors.
Rules of Investment
Rule #1: Never go against the trend. The majority is often wrong; but the minority is often wrong also. The sticky issue with this advice is at transition points, at which a Bull Market turns into a Bear Market or vice-versa. Big Money often anticipates and/or causes this transition. So pay attention to what Big Money is really doing, not what they say they are doing.
Rule #2: You don’t need a broker who makes his living off of your money. Most brokerage firms buy a position in a stock quietly and slowly. When the stock has appreciated significantly they add the stock to their buy recommendations. Then they begin selling their position while they are encouraging their clients to buy the stock. Most firms never issue sell recommendations. If they do, beware: they are probably trying to buy your stock after a huge sell-off.
Rule #3: Watch your own emotions because they are often signaling something. When fear turns to greed and visions of unlimited wealth, we are probably near a top in a trade and we should get ready to sell. When hope and denial turn to fear and visions of an unlimited loss, we are probably approaching a bottom in a trade. (See Rule #1 however.)
Rule #4: Trade with a system to complement your gut reactions. Follow the system no matter what, even if it means taking a loss. Don’t get lazy with your money and sink into denial. Use a system to help you refrain from 'playing a hunch'.
Rule #5: HEDGE YOUR PORTFOLIO AGAINST LOSSES. How does one do this? By having a balanced portfolio of long and short positions. But have a system that signals both long and short positions, and keep your portfolio balanced around 50% long and 50% short. This may seem to contradict Rule #1. It does not. When something is in a long trend, something else is in a short trend. Find what is long and what is short. If stocks are long, gold or oil may be short. Use ETFs and options to help establish this portfolio balance. Our system gives trading signals every day for both long and short positions.
More information on CGTS is available at:
His fine arts portfolio can be found at the following address:
His writing portfolio can be found at:
Those interested in his book "Turn Out the Lights", a description of the metaphysical causes of the 2008 financial meltdown, can access the draft at:
Michael Clark has retired after working 30 years in academia, relocated to Hanoi, Vietnam for six years, and has returned to America in 2014.
Edward Harrison is the founder of the blog Credit Writedowns (www.creditwritedowns.com) and is a finance specialist at Global Macro Advisors. Previously, Edward was a strategy and finance executive at Deutsche Bank, Bain, and Yahoo. He started his career as a diplomat and speaks German, Dutch, Swedish, Spanish and French. Edward holds an MBA from Columbia University and a BA in Economics from Dartmouth College. Follow him on Twitter at twitter.com/edwardnh. Contact him at edh at creditwritedowns dot com as that's the only mailbox he reads regularly.