Eric Parnell, CFA, is the Founder and Director of Gerring Capital Partners. Gerring Capital is a registered investment advisory firm seeking attractive returns opportunities emphasizing value, quality and risk control. Eric also publishes The Universal premium service on Seeking Alpha targeting winning strategies in bear and bull markets across the asset class universe. Gerring Capital implements these strategies for its investors and then Eric discusses them on The Universal. Eric is also a Visiting Instructor at Ursinus College in the Department of Business and Economics. Prior to founding Gerring in 2005, Eric was the Director of Investment Communications at SEI Investments and an Economist at Moody’s Analytics.
Up until a century ago, there appears to have been a fairly equal emphasis on economic theory and observation. Although the interest in economics has probably always been a consequence of the need of the state to acquire resources, we are now at the point where the discipline of economics is both completely at the service of ideological camps and completely convinced of its own objectivity and scientific underpinnings.
I have taken an interest in markets since 2008, after which my already scant regard for conventional wisdom in the modern social sciences plunged even further. I try to understand historical price behavior and see what it says about present market conditions.
Scott Grannis was Chief Economist from 1989 to 2007 at Western Asset Management Company, a Pasadena-based manager of fixed-income funds for institutional investors around the globe. He was a member of Western's Investment Strategy Committee, was responsible for developing the firm's domestic and international outlook, and provided consultation and advice on investment and asset allocation strategies to CFOs, Treasurers, and pension fund managers. He specialized in analysis of Federal Reserve policy and interest rate forecasting, and spearheaded the firm's research into Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS). Prior to joining Western Asset, he was Senior Economist at the Claremont Economics Institute, an economic forecasting and consulting service headed by John Rutledge, from 1980 to 1986. From 1986 to 1989, he was Principal at Leland O'Brien Rubinstein Associates, a financial services firm that specialized in sophisticated hedging strategies for institutional investors.
Visit his blog: Calafia Beach Pundit (http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/)
My name is Alan I have qualifications in town planning and and an MBA. I have been actively developing land and investing in shares and foreign currencies for the last 25 years. My specialty is that I analyse investment opportunities within the framework of real estate and business cycles after the work of Henry George, Homer Hoyt, Fred Harrison and Phillip Anderson.
Mercenary Trader (www.mercenarytrader.com) was created by traders, for traders. We are aggressive swing traders who routinely combine fundamentals, technicals and sentiment with deep awareness of global macro and rigorous analysis of individual equities.
See all of our content, including free educational materials on the theory and practice of trading, at www.mercenarytrader.com
Mr. Roche is the founder of Orcam Financial Group, LLC, a low fee financial services firm based in San Diego, CA as well as the founder of the popular financial website Pragmatic Capitalism (some articles from Pragmatic Capitalism get syndicated on Seeking Alpha so please see the full site if you don't want to miss articles by Mr. Roche).
Orcam Financial Group, LLC (www.orcamgroup.com) is a low fee financial services firm offering asset management, personal advisory, consulting and educational services. Pragmatic Capitalism (http://pragcap.com) was founded by Cullen Roche in the midst of the financial crisis of 2008. Mr. Roche foresaw many of the events that led up to the crisis and felt that the government was slow to react and when it did finally react, responded with the wrong medicine.
Mr. Roche's primary areas of expertise include global macro portfolio construction, quantitative risk management, monetary economics and behavioral finance. Prior to establishing his own business, Mr. Roche worked at Merrill Lynch Global Wealth Management where he worked on a team overseeing $500MM+ in assets under management. Upon leaving Merrill Lynch, Mr. Roche managed a private investment partnership for 7 years generating substantial positive alpha (high risk adjusted returns) without a single negative year of returns. He has since transitioned back to retail asset management to better serve the much needed low fee retail space with sophisticated but simple asset management and financial planning services.
Mr. Roche is also a prolific writer. In addition to the daily musings on his website, he is the author of the popular book “Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Know About Money and Finance” as well as “Understanding the Modern Monetary System”, one of the top 10 all-time most downloaded research papers on the SSRN academic research network. He was named one of the “Top Wall Street Economists, Experts and Opinion Leaders” of 2011 by Wall Street Economists and was named one of the “101 Best Finance People” by Business Insider where he was described as “one of the most influential economic thinkers today.” In 2015 Mr. Roche was named one of the “40 Under 40” most influential people in finance by InvestmentNews. He is regularly cited in the Wall Street Journal, on CNBC and in the Financial Times.
Mr. Roche is a Georgetown University alumnus, growing up in the DC area and now living in Southern California with his wife Erica, troublesome collie Cal and 4 irritable laying hens. In addition to being a financial dork Cullen is an avid outdoorsman, mediocre gardener, proficient complex carbohydrate consumer (i.e., loves brownies and cake) and finisher of one of the most difficult IRONMAN races at Cabo in 2015.
Joseph has been an analyst, investor, and student of economic theory; money and banking; and statistical methods for evaluating and implementing risk/reward trading algorithms since 1972. Joseph is also an occasional contributor to financial publications and his essays are frequently cited by other financial websites and publications.
Since the end of the Great Recession, Joseph came to recognize that traditional methodologies for forecasting economic growth and investment asset pricing are no longer of value, and a broader understanding of the post Glass Steagall, financially engineered world that has driven markets and economies since the turn of the century is required today.
He has a good grasp of Shadow Banking, High Frequency Trading, and Dark Pools, and their impact on today’s markets. He has also spent considerable time understanding the new global paradigm of central bank involvement in experimental policy designed to better control economies.
Joseph doesn’t subscribe to a specific school of theory on economics. Rather, his thinking is based on a combination of the Classical School, the Austrian School, and the Keynesian School. He even sees the writings of Karl Marx as particularly instructive.
Joseph is particularly fond of the following quote from Albert Einstein and sees his own work as driven by that same passionate curiosity that Einstein refers to:
“I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious.”
Coming in a close second in terms of favorite quotes that express his views, Joseph embraces Lord Acton’s views expressed here:
“The danger is not that a particular class is unfit to govern.
Every class is unfit to govern."
I'm founder of the Gold Standard Institute USA in Phoenix, Arizona, and CEO of precious metals fund manager Monetary Metals. I created DiamondWare, a technology company which I sold to Nortel Networks in 2008.
"The art of investing is the study of three things: Economics, Companies, and People." Malik King, CFA/CMT has shaped his career to focus on all of the above, working in roles as a macro strategist, a fundamental analyst, and a technician for more than a decade. A former Vice President at Barclays Capital in New York, he most recently served as a Macro Strategist and Technical Analyst, and has also worked for 5 years as a fundamental sector specialist covering Telecom/Media/Internet in Lehman Brothers' Desk-Based Analysts group within the Equities Trading Division. He began doing macro/multi-sector strategy and technical analysis at King Investors, Inc. in 1999. He has both a CFA and a CMT, and has presented on a variety of topics such as “Convergence of Old and New Media and Communication Platforms,” and “Value vs. Growth Strategies for a Volatile Market", as well as on many issues involving technical analysis. He is now an independent trader and market analyst.
George Dorgan had been one of the predictors of the financial tsunami of January 15, 2015. This is also visible in many posts in Seeking Alpha between 2012 and 2014. Very often he spoke about the impossibility of the peg and the strong Swiss economy.
He often criticized the - as for CHF - notoriously wrong bank research, in particular in the Seeking Alpha article:
The Swiss Franc, Pseudo-Mathematics and Financial Charlatanism
George lives in Zurich and knows well the Swiss mentality and the mindset of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) that is in line with supply-side and Austrian economics.
George is a heterodox economist and manages a very small private hedge fund on global macro basis following contrarian strategies.
Dorgan is largely an Austrian economist, supply sider and fierce advocat of deflation caused by technologic progress, free trade and the global distribution of labor.
He is against both the Keynesian mainstream and those Austrians that see the hyper-inflationary collapse coming. His ideas are also inspired by Minsky and Richard Koo, but he considers fiscal intervention only when private sector savings rates are rapidly increasing.
For Dorgan, GDP growth is currently not important, but a stabilisation of savings rates. Apart from some countries in Southern Europe, unemployment is extraordinarily low in the world, in particular in emerging and less privileged economies.
For him, the 2008 financial crisis was rather a balance of payments crisis of the United States and thanks to globalisation, only a very short-lived crisis.
Dorgan started up as quant programmer, worked at UBS and Reuters. He speaks nine languages including Russian.
He has a broad knowledge on (economic) history, law, computer science and business. He currrently manages Too Big To Fail projects in big Swiss banks.
His recent publications that were editor's picks in Seeking Alpha:
FX Rates, Contrarian Investment And The Misleading Concept Called GDP http://tinyurl.com/ortw73c
The Dollar, The ISM, Buy American And Irrational Exuberance http://tinyurl.com/o6q7qtg
Other useful contributions are the regularly updated:
What Drives Government Bond Yields? http://tinyurl.com/pnn3urn
The Six Major Fundamental Factors that Determine Gold and Silver Prices http://tinyurl.com/qxahse7
His Google Plus profile https://plus.google.com/u/0/+GeorgeMDorgan
and his Twitter account https://twitter.com/DorganG
I am the Portfolio Manager for the RETIREE INCOME PORTFOLIO, DIVIDEND OVERDRIVE PORTFOLIO, and the OIL & GAS INCOME PORTFOLIO at PortfolioChannel.com. I am also the creator of the Cash Flow Retirement Replacement Ratio© used in retirement and investment planning. A Chartered Financial Analyst and Certified Financial Planner, I have spent over two decades managing high-net worth individual and institutional accounts, working as a portfolio manager and analyst. I have also had several stints working for a pair of Private Banks managing balanced, fixed income, and equity accounts.
Follow Kerry Balenthiran ( @17_6YrStockCyc ) on Twitter.
Kerry Balenthiran studied mathematics at the University of Warwick and then worked as a Spacecraft Operations Engineer in the UK and at the European Space Agency. He qualified as a chartered accountant with Arthur Andersen and now works as a consultant within financial services. His mathematical background led to a fascination with the cyclical nature of stock market booms and busts.
Kerry Balenthiran's first book "The 17.6 Year Stock Market Cycle, Connecting the Panics of 1929, 1987, 2000 and 2007" is out on 25th February 2013.
Commodity broker 79-81 I discovered the Gospel In July 1979 (and re-discovered it again in April 2004 -after the G.6 release was dis-continued - actually created the RR time series in the late 1980's). Dr. Leland Pritchard "You have a predictive device nobody has hit on yet" - 9/8/81 My prediction for AAA corporate yields for 1981 was 15.48%. AAA Corporate yields rose to 15.49%. I should receive the Nobel Prize. The data should be classified as "top secret" by the U.S. Gov't. I.e., I let Aladdin out of the Lamp. See: 1938 Member Bank Reserve Requirements - Analysis of Committee Proposal (transactions velocity) http://bit.ly/M0JB7X The outstanding volume of the FRB_NY "trading desk's" 'eligible collateral' fell during the Great Depression. Whereas 'eligible collateral' was multiplied thru colossal Federal deficit financing (where the Gov’t spends much more than it expects to receive), during the Great Recession (but Bernanke still chose to "push on a string"). As Greenspan pontificated in “The Map & the Territory”: “The laws of physics…once identified, rarely have to be revised”: Rates-of-change (roc’s) in monetary flows (our means-of-payment money times its transactions rate-of-turnover), equal roc’s in all transactions in Irving Fisher’s “equation of exchange”: (MVt = PT). Roc’s in nominal-gDp are a proxy for all economic transactions. The lags for monetary flows (MVt), i.e. the proxies for (1) real-growth, & for (2) inflation indices have been mathematical constants for the last 100 years. However, the FED's target (interest rates), is indirect, varies widely over time, & in magnitude. President Wilson signed “The Federal Reserve Act” into law on December 23, 1913. The Act, "Provided for the establishment of Federal Reserve Banks, to furnish an elastic currency, to afford means of rediscounting commercial paper, to establish a more effective supervision of banking in the United States, and for other purposes". "It was anticipated that credit extended by the Federal Reserve Banks to commercial banks would rise and fall with seasonal and longer term variations in business activity" "Seasonality" (principally the holidays), is the result of the FOMC’s seasonal mal-adjustments (& has its roots in the fallacious "Real Bills Doctrine”). The FOMC, through its "open market power", has the capability of either adding or subtracting to the volume of money in circulation. But the non-bank public determines its mix (the volume of currency vs. bank deposits). This policy is reflected by changes in the Depository Financial Institution’s (DFI), required reserve balances. RRs are based on transaction type accounts 30 days prior. Reserve balances are driven by consumer's & business' payment & settlements. Thus RRs provide the seasonal factor map (economic time series’ cyclical trend). This is inviolate & sacrosanct. Some calls: (1) flow5 (2/26/07; 14:34:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 152672) Suckers Rally If gold doesn't fall, then there's a new paradigm (2) Reply #187 on Jul 21, 2011, 8:31pm » the stock market should be topping & in the process of a downtrend (3) flow5 Comments (3049) As it now stands, the market falls until Oct. Then expect a very strong rally. Everybody should double up in Nov. & Dec. (i.e., futures, options, margin, etc.) 5 Aug 2011, 09:04 (4) Written on Mar 30 11:31 am prior to the MAY 6th FLASH CRASH: "Contrary to economic theory, & Nobel laureate Dr. Milton Friedman, monetary lags are not "long & variable". The lags for monetary flows (MVt), i.e., the proxies for (1) real-growth, and for (2) inflation indices, are historically, always, fixed in length (mathematical constants). However the lag for nominal gdp (the FED's target??), varies widely." Assuming no quick countervailing stimulus: 2010 jan..... 0.54.... 0.25 top feb..... 0.50.... 0.10 mar.... 0.54.... 0.08 apr..... 0.46.... 0.09 top may.... 0.41.... 0.01 stocks fall Been saying this for the last 6 months. Should see shortly. Stock market makes a double top in Jan & Apr. Then the real-output of final goods & services falls/inverts from (9) to (1) from Apr to May. Recent history indicates that this will be a marked, short, one month drop, in rate-of-change for real-output (-8). So stocks follow the economy down (with yields moving sympathetically?)" (5) flow5 Message #10 - 05/03/10 07:30 PM The markets usually turn (pivot) on May 5th (+ or - 1 day). (6) POSTED: Dec 13 2007 06:55 PM | The Commerce Department said retail sales in Oct 2007 increased by 1.2% over Oct 2006, & up a huge 6.3% from Nov 2006. 10/1/2007,,,,,,,-0.47,,,,,,, -0.22 * temporary bottom 11/1/2007,,,,,,, 0.14,,,,,,, -0.18 12/1/2007,,,,,,, 0.44,,,,,,,-0.23 1/1/2008,,,,,,, 0.59,,,,,,, 0.06 2/1/2008,,,,,,, 0.45,,,,,,, 0.10 3/1/2008,,,,,,, 0.06,,,,,,, 0.04 4/1/2008,,,,,,, 0.04,,,,,,, 0.02 5/1/2008,,,,,,, 0.09,,,,,,, 0.04 6/1/2008,,,,,,, 0.20,,,,,,, 0.05 7/1/2008,,,,,,, 0.32,,,,,,, 0.10 8/1/2008,,,,,,, 0.15,,,,,,, 0.05 9/1/2008,,,,,,, 0.00,,,,,,, 0.13 10/1/2008,,,,,,, -0.20,,,,,,, 0.10 * possible recession 11/1/2008,,,,,,, -0.10,,,,,,, 0.00 * possible recession 12/1/2008,,,,,,, 0.10,,,,,,, -0.06 * possible recession Trajectory as predicted: (7) 12-16-12, 01:50 PM #1 flow5 "We’re close to seeing the real power of OMOs. R-gDp is likely to accelerate earlier & faster than anyone now expects. The roc in M*Vt before any new stimulus is already above average. With low inflation (given some deficit resolution), Jan-Apr could be a zinger" (8) June's reversal will end the bull market that began in the early 80's. And it will not be because Operation Twist ends (although its end will force yields higher). 20 May 2012, 03:04 PMReply (9) This propelled nominal gNp to 19.2% in the 1st qtr 1981, the FFR to 22%, & AAA Corporates to 15.49%. My prediction for AAA corporate yields for 1981 was 15.48%.
Have managed money for clients as an independent advisor since 1991. Published a newsletter ECONOMIC LEADS from 1988 to 1993. Have an economics degree from Vanderbilt University. Focus on the macro picture forecasting the US economy and broad stock market. Also have a model to estimate long term equity returns for several countries.
Jeff Paul has been investing since his teen years, though his professional career has been in software engineering and education. His math classes participated in online stock market challenges, providing an opportunity to share his enthusiasm for investing with his students and the chance for them to learn the fundamentals and try to identify the next big stock (they found Google). He recently completed an MBA at Portland State University with a focus on finance, and is currently a Senior Investment Analyst at a wealth management firm.
Founded in 1990, TrimTabs Investment Research is the leading independent institutional research firm focused on the supply and demand of shares of stock and the money available for investment. Our key premise – which we term Liquidity Theory – is that stock prices are a function of liquidity rather than value. Like the prices of any tradable good, the prices of stocks are driven primarily by supply and demand.
Unlike most quantitative stock-evaluation models, which focus on easily available price, volume, and earnings data, Liquidity Theory insights depend on detailed data on asset flows and how they shift over time. Since data on the supply and demand for stocks is scattered across so many sources, most strategies ignore stock market liquidity altogether.
By maintaining detailed quantitative models that track key areas of market liquidity and changes in the supply and demand for equities and equity-like vehicles, TrimTabs provides our clients with comprehensive real-time analysis of all aspects of equity-market liquidity.
On the supply side, we measure changes in the float of shares by aggregating corporate actions. On the demand side, we track the money moving into and out of the stock market by measuring the flows into and out of mutual funds, exchange-traded funds, and hedge funds. To obtain an early edge on future liquidity trends, our Real Time Macro research focuses on real-time measures of consumer income and employment. Follow TrimTabs and Charles Biderman on Twitter, @CharlesBiderman
I seek out companies that have the ability to generate above-average growth for many years, before ultimately becoming a shareholder-friendly, dividend paying titan, cementing its spot in my portfolio with an incredibly low cost basis due to the previous years of steady, strong growth. These are Future Blue Chips!
I really enjoy helping people with trying to understand the market. Seeking Alpha is for connecting with other investors and it has a lot of people that are willing to lend a helping hand. If you have ANY questions with options or the general market, feel free to ask! :)
www.FutureBlueChips.com -- Try my Newsletter, it's completely free!
In investing, I have a heavy focus on reinsurance companies, and I enjoy learning how to value their investment portfolio and underwriting ability, taking inspiration from the reinsurance companies that Warren Buffett used to help build Berkshire Hathaway's investing empire. The other focused sector that I study is deepwater offshore petroleum drilling.
Michael Pettis is a professor at Peking University's Guanghua School of Management, where he specializes in Chinese financial markets. He has also taught, from 2002 to 2004, at Tsinghua University’s School of Economics and Management and, from 1992 to 2001, at Columbia University’s Graduate School of Business.
Pettis has worked on Wall Street in trading, capital markets, and corporate finance since 1987, when he joined the Sovereign Debt trading team at Manufacturers Hanover (now JP Morgan). Most recently, from 1996 to 2001, Pettis worked at Bear Stearns, where he was Managing Director-Principal heading the Latin American Capital Markets and the Liability Management groups.
Visit: China Financial Markets (http://www.mpettis.com)
Nothing I write should be considered investment advice. Only you can decide if any specific financial asset, security, allocation, opinion, idea, etc. is best for your financial portfolio.
Author of two books, available here, Options Strategies Every Investor Should Know and The 5 Fundamentals of Building a Retirement Portfolio (both available in paperback and eBook).
Green River Precision is small, but growing CNC machine shop in the Charlotte, NC area. We provide full service solutions for toolroom, prototype, short run and production manufacturing needs.
GreenRiver is a graduate of Clemson University with BS and MS in Electrical Engineering and experience in construction and manufacturing.
Note: follow me at your own risk.
David Frazier has a diverse background in the investment securities industry and has invested in the financial markets for more than 25 years.
In addition to working as a business analyst, merchant banking analyst, and equity research analyst at both large, national firms and private boutique firms, he’s held positions in sales and marketing at institutional investment firms, including mutual funds and registered investment advisories.
After working as an equity research analyst from April 2000 to March 2004, Frazier operated his own investment consulting firm for three years, where he provided analytical, writing and financial marketing services to institutional investors, including Dan Sullivan’s The Chartist; Leeb Capital Group’s Emerging Investments and Leeb’s IPO Insight; Meeder Financial Group; and The Flex-funds family of mutual funds.
From May 2007 to January 2012, he wrote a very successful investment newsletter for Newsmax Media, with the model portfolio that he managed for that newsletter outperforming the S&P 500 Index (including dividends) by 27.9 percentage points from the inception of that portfolio on September 18, 2007 to the time that Frazier left Newsmax on January 24, 2012.
Frazier now serves as the President and Chief Market Strategist of Frazier & Mayer Research, LLC, an independent investment research and newsletter firm that Frazier founded during July 2011.
Most recently Rosecast.com has earned notorious status for forecasting the most accurate intraday-timing signals for professional traders and fund managers from the screens of New York to the pits of Chicago and around the world, from Hong Kong to London and Singapore. Investor signals for the S&P 500 and Gold are tracked by Timer Digest. Rosecast.com has been ranked the number 1 stock market timer by Timer Digest between October 11, 2007 (all time high S&P 500) and October 11, 2008 (first strong low of the financial crisis). Additionally Rosecast has been ranked # 1 Gold Market Timer of 2008 and # 8 Stock Market Timer of the year 2010 and # 2 Stock Market Timer of the year 2004 by Timer Digest!.
Markus Rose, Sun in Libra, Chinese sign Monkey, graduated from one of Europe's leading business schools, the Vienna University of Economics and Business, with a Masters Degree (Magister) in Finance and Management - among the top 15% of his semester.
His Master Thesis about Mortgage-Backed Securities was awarded as "one of the best of the university" by a committee of professors.
Markus completed his academic education by taking MBA classes in Finance at the Anderson School of Management and by taking senior classes in differential equations at the Department of Mathematics at the University of California, Los Angeles.
Building wealth intelligently and patiently is the most logical and tested route to financial independence.
That is my plan and so far, so good!
(WARNING: Do your own due diligence and don't depend on me or anyone else on SA to offer sound investing advice. My recommendations are for educational purposes ONLY!)