Tesla's Not-So-New Manufacturing Model [View article]
Tesla Model S just set the Lugana Seca track record for a sedan, that should tell you something about its ability to corner. Given the car's low center of gravity and perfectly even weight distribution among the wheels, not only does it corner better than any other sedans on the market, it corners better than any sports car except the most expensive Ferrari or Lamborghinis. Again, Steve, you should drive one.
Tesla's Not-So-New Manufacturing Model [View article]
Tesla Model S is the best cornering sedan ever with the most acceleration of any sedan ever, largest storage compartments of any sedan ever, lowest center of gravity of any car on the market, most comfortable interior of any sedan on the market, automatic improvements on interior panel, best map software, best interior controls, quietest sedan on the market, can drive indoors because no emissions, most leg room of any sedan in the back seat, owners never have to go to a gas station ever again, and the fuel is nearly free. This car is revolutionary in so many ways, it feels as though every other car on the road is obsolete. So yes, CR gave it a 99. And guess what, it deserved it.
Every other car manufacturer should be really nervous. As the market has figured this out, Tesla's stock price has gone straight up. After the financing announced this week, they'll have $1 billion in the bank after paying off the DOE. This is a company that could be selling 500,000 cars per year in the not too distant future. Anyone who doesn't take this car seriously, hasn't driven one.
If the Fed lets its balance sheet run off, that isn't cash out of private sector, since the payor is the fed. Burning private sector fiat currency is a tax. Pulling the cash out and substituting it for interest bearing securities is stimulative I think. It's all stuff that's hard to get your head around. But I really think most people have it backwards. Buying assets from the private sector for newly minted fiat currency (ie QE) isn't stimulative, it's a tax. So the reverse should be a negative tax, or stimulus. I think unwinding QE will be very positive for the economy.
Unwinding QE means pulling taking fiat currency out of the private sector and in its place providing treasury notes and bonds and MBS. These securities are productive assets in that the earn interest, whereas cash is not. This will be a net good thing for the private sector.
10 Things You Don't Know About Bitcoin But Should [View article]
Credit cards are last century. Banks are 19th century. The whole industry is in for massive upheaval, and it will be people like us doing it. So, yes couldn't agree more.
I see companies every day that are approaching the revolution in a different way. Very exciting to be part of it. As far as bitpay is concerned, I wonder whether they might be too early. the real turning point will be when the big processors like JPM, Wells or Amex start transacting in bitcoin. But they won't do it until bitcoins become more widespread and I have my doubts the bitcoin infrastructure is rigorous enough to support it. Bitpay will see a lot of competition if and when bitcoin becomes widespread, so I have my doubts about bitpay's viability long term. More exciting is opencoin that just got funded by google ventures and andreesen horowitz. They manage the ripple network, which is bitcoin 2.0, I think. It's like instant Dwolla coupled with a more rigorous bitcoin. Super exciting. Stay tuned.
10 Things You Don't Know About Bitcoin But Should [View article]
Right. It also might be too early to be a viable business. The total bitcoin market cap is about $1 billion, which is the total amount of money that can be spent using a bitcoin merchant plugin, and they are only taking a small % of the amount. It's hard to imagine them transmitting more than the bitcoin equivalent of say $10m in a given month, and with a fee of 2%, which will no doubt be falling, that works out to $200k per month of revenue... good business but not great.
Tesla's Not-So-New Manufacturing Model [View article]
Why are you defending this guy? His article is full of superficial financial analysis aimed at making the reader think that Tesla was about to hit the wall (a/k/a imminent capital structure collapse). A few quotes:
"Accounts Payable and notes due are an interesting thing to look for in avoiding a cash crunch. Tesla owed $343 million to vendors. This is weighed against a little over $200 million in cash, and weighed down further by $268 M in inventory."
"The really big item on the liabilities page is the long-term debt, most, if not all due to the Department of Energy-sponsored loan. Contrary to popular belief, Tesla is technically behind on this loan."
Incidentally, I'm a bit surprised you're willing to reappear in the comments since you were attacking Tesla bulls back in March, and you were also 100% wrong for doing so. Again the stock is up almost 100% since then.
Tesla's Not-So-New Manufacturing Model [View article]
The stock was at $35 on March 1 when Steve wrote this negative piece on Tesla. This week the stock hit $55. Steve, are you still bearish on Tesla? Do you still think the DOE is about to call the loan creating instability in their capital structure?
James Altucher: Why The Stock Market Is A Sucker's Game Right Now (And What Stocks I Own) [View article]
JA, How do you reconcile your view that individual investors can no longer make money trading in large-caps, with your statement that the markets (i.e. large caps) are currently over-valued?
Valuations Support 1% Or Less For U.S. Stocks Over Next 20 Years [View article]
Mature companies like IBM and Microsoft still have high margins, given the natural monopolies and intellectual property protection inherent in tech, even in the face of potential competition. And Tech growing rapidly as a portion of the S&P500. That is changing the margin attributes of the whole index. And that is secular not cyclical.
Valuations Support 1% Or Less For U.S. Stocks Over Next 20 Years [View article]
"Profit margins are probably the most mean-reverting series in finance, and if profit margins do not mean-revert, then something has gone badly wrong with capitalism."
Profit margins change over time as the makeup of the S&P500 changes. Obviously, as companies with extremely high margins like Google, Apple, Qualcomm, Facebook, Cisco, Salesforce and the like grow as a percentage of the S&P500, that skews the overall profit margins. That's largely what is behind the current margin increase. If one excludes the technology segment of the S&P 500, S&P 500 earnings have been flat since 2006.
Basically what you are saying is that capitalism is broken because Google and Apple have too much market capitalization. Look, the US is good at tech. Our tech companies are growing. They have high margins and it's impacting overall S&P500 margins. That's a good thing not a bad thing.
I don't think bitcoins are behind the current gold plummet, but long term you could be right. Mathematical based currency systems have to be better for the long haul. Thing about the benefits. Gold has to be carried. Bitcoins travel anywhere immediately. Gold can't be taken across boarders. Bitcoins have no limits. Gold can't be sold easily, without paying a big commission. Gold is expensive to store. Bitcoins can be transferred immediately with very little commission and costs nothing to store. Bitcoins are capped in terms of numbers mathematically. Gold can always be mined. It really goes on and on.
Tesla's Not-So-New Manufacturing Model [View article]
Tesla's Not-So-New Manufacturing Model [View article]
Go sit in them next to each other. There is no center hump on the Tesla. It is flat all the way across, so seats three adults. Mercedes doesn't.
Tesla's Not-So-New Manufacturing Model [View article]
Every other car manufacturer should be really nervous. As the market has figured this out, Tesla's stock price has gone straight up. After the financing announced this week, they'll have $1 billion in the bank after paying off the DOE. This is a company that could be selling 500,000 cars per year in the not too distant future. Anyone who doesn't take this car seriously, hasn't driven one.
Is A QE Exit Really Scary? [View article]
Is A QE Exit Really Scary? [View article]
10 Things You Don't Know About Bitcoin But Should [View article]
I see companies every day that are approaching the revolution in a different way. Very exciting to be part of it. As far as bitpay is concerned, I wonder whether they might be too early. the real turning point will be when the big processors like JPM, Wells or Amex start transacting in bitcoin. But they won't do it until bitcoins become more widespread and I have my doubts the bitcoin infrastructure is rigorous enough to support it. Bitpay will see a lot of competition if and when bitcoin becomes widespread, so I have my doubts about bitpay's viability long term. More exciting is opencoin that just got funded by google ventures and andreesen horowitz. They manage the ripple network, which is bitcoin 2.0, I think. It's like instant Dwolla coupled with a more rigorous bitcoin. Super exciting. Stay tuned.
10 Things You Don't Know About Bitcoin But Should [View article]
10 Things You Don't Know About Bitcoin But Should [View article]
Tesla's Not-So-New Manufacturing Model [View article]
Tesla's Not-So-New Manufacturing Model [View article]
"Accounts Payable and notes due are an interesting thing to look for in avoiding a cash crunch. Tesla owed $343 million to vendors. This is weighed against a little over $200 million in cash, and weighed down further by $268 M in inventory."
"The really big item on the liabilities page is the long-term debt, most, if not all due to the Department of Energy-sponsored loan. Contrary to popular belief, Tesla is technically behind on this loan."
Incidentally, I'm a bit surprised you're willing to reappear in the comments since you were attacking Tesla bulls back in March, and you were also 100% wrong for doing so. Again the stock is up almost 100% since then.
Tesla's Not-So-New Manufacturing Model [View article]
James Altucher: Why The Stock Market Is A Sucker's Game Right Now (And What Stocks I Own) [View article]
How do you reconcile your view that individual investors can no longer make money trading in large-caps, with your statement that the markets (i.e. large caps) are currently over-valued?
Valuations Support 1% Or Less For U.S. Stocks Over Next 20 Years [View article]
Valuations Support 1% Or Less For U.S. Stocks Over Next 20 Years [View article]
Profit margins change over time as the makeup of the S&P500 changes. Obviously, as companies with extremely high margins like Google, Apple, Qualcomm, Facebook, Cisco, Salesforce and the like grow as a percentage of the S&P500, that skews the overall profit margins. That's largely what is behind the current margin increase. If one excludes the technology segment of the S&P 500, S&P 500 earnings have been flat since 2006.
Basically what you are saying is that capitalism is broken because Google and Apple have too much market capitalization. Look, the US is good at tech. Our tech companies are growing. They have high margins and it's impacting overall S&P500 margins. That's a good thing not a bad thing.
Are Bitcoins Killing Gold's Price? [View article]
I don't think bitcoins are behind the current gold plummet, but long term you could be right. Mathematical based currency systems have to be better for the long haul. Thing about the benefits. Gold has to be carried. Bitcoins travel anywhere immediately. Gold can't be taken across boarders. Bitcoins have no limits. Gold can't be sold easily, without paying a big commission. Gold is expensive to store. Bitcoins can be transferred immediately with very little commission and costs nothing to store. Bitcoins are capped in terms of numbers mathematically. Gold can always be mined. It really goes on and on.