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Dibber

Dibber
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  • Investors Should Pay Attention To Ebola - It Is Getting Worse [View article]
    You're right. The battle won't be fought in the US. The real concern is getting a handle on the outbreak in West Africa. If those efforts are unsuccessful things will get very bad. It won't just be American Airlines that falls in value, the whole market will fall. The world economy won't work with say 50 million infections. If current growth rates continue, that number is only 12 months away. This isn't SARs. If this isn't contained soon, the world will have a situation on its hands that it totally unprecedented in scope, severity and economic damage.

    The only question from an investment thesis is whether the growth rate can be checked. WHO data isn't good enough to tell. From the sounds of it, you don't really have any data that suggests one way or the other either.
    Oct 29, 2014. 12:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Should Pay Attention To Ebola - It Is Getting Worse [View article]
    This isn't a hypothetical threat. Ebola is ravaging West Africa totally unchecked unlike anything we have ever seen. The question you should ask yourself, is what's going to stop this Ebola outbreak? Until you have an answer to that question, you shouldn't be drawing comparisons to car accidents or gun violence.
    Oct 27, 2014. 08:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Should Pay Attention To Ebola - It Is Getting Worse [View article]
    Ok Doc. You seem very confident about the potential scope of an outbreak, that is totally unprecedented. Forget America. If several hundred thousand are infected in West Africa by the end of the year (which implies a lower growth rate than CDC's current estimate not to mention its worst case prediction) how does the world realistically prevent the spread to the rest of Africa and the developing world?
    Oct 27, 2014. 07:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Should Pay Attention To Ebola - It Is Getting Worse [View article]
    Michael -- I really hope you're wrong on this one. The hope is that the infection rate will decline with the massive education campaign in Western Africa, allowing time for health care ramp up and maybe a cure and/or innoculations. The WHO data seems to show the beginnings of a slowdown. I agree that if the number of cases rises about 100,000 or so, it'll be hard for other developing countries to stay on top of every infected traveler and stop outbreaks.
    Oct 27, 2014. 03:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell The Bitcoin Bubble Before It Bursts [View article]
    How so?
    Feb 25, 2014. 01:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Inequality And The Genetic Lottery: 2 Views [View article]
    Mobility (i.e. economic opportunity) hasn't changed in the US in 50 years. I don't think you have your statistical data right.

    http://wapo.st/LBUgJj
    Feb 6, 2014. 12:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Inequality And The Genetic Lottery: 2 Views [View article]
    Schools definitely vary in quality. Allowing kids to choose the school they go to would be an enormous improvement. Statistically, quality of grade school isn't a big predictor of a child's outcome. The much bigger determiner is whether the child comes from a single parent family.

    But even if a kid is raised by a single mom or their local grade school is crap, that doesn't mean the US isn't "close" to equal opportunity. In America, kids can overcome their family situation.

    I do wish people would talk more about the importance of two parent households. Statistically, single parent household is the hardest thing for kids to overcome.
    Feb 5, 2014. 02:17 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Inequality And The Genetic Lottery: 2 Views [View article]
    Why do you say the US isn't even CLOSE to having genuine equal opportunity? The US doesn't have a class system or other artificial limitations on upward mobility. Sure some people work harder and some people are smarter, but those people tend to do well, regardless of background.

    Of course, if we want to fix the troubling persistence of population intelligence variance, we could require all the clever people to marry dullards to equal the opportunities of their kids. But I doubt the author would support that policy, given that he no doubt views himself as smarter than average.
    Feb 4, 2014. 02:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Inequality And The Genetic Lottery: 2 Views [View article]
    Equal rights and equal opportunity are important goals. But income equality flat out doesn't work. A number of countries have tried it and it has uniformly been a disaster.
    Feb 3, 2014. 05:23 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Doesn't Understand Bitcoin Yet, But It Will [View article]
    1. Yes it would be outrageous. Bitcoin is not like drugs.

    2. If you prefer gold to bitcoin, you should own gold. If you think bitcoin is a pump and dump, then, no, you shouldn't buy it. Bitcoin isn't for everyone.
    Dec 9, 2013. 10:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Waiting For Bitcoin To Get Boring [View article]
    Filipo- the sheep market was an outrageous story! Bitcoin is along way from 100% safe! It's hard to feel too sorry or a bunch of people selling drugs and contraband, but still. It's amazing how easy it was.

    JP- You definitely don't want to leave money or bitcoins on an exchange for longer than is necessary. Many have been shut down or been hacked. Better to keep bitcoin in cold storage!
    Dec 7, 2013. 08:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell The Bitcoin Bubble Before It Bursts [View article]
    All very good questions, and all things that require a lot of investigation thought and talking with smart people in and around the community. Good luck on the investigations. If nothing else, it's all super interesting.
    Dec 5, 2013. 07:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Doesn't Understand Bitcoin Yet, But It Will [View article]
    Krim,

    1. Hard to say what govts will do, but it's a pretty hard thing to destroy since there aren't central servers or any company to shut down, and it's global. No govt has indicated so far it will shut it down. You might be surprised by this.

    2. Right now it's hard to "use" bitcoin. I agree. But it can be used. And for international transfers, it's probably easier than dollars now. You'd be surprised how many businesses will take it globally. More than will take gold for example. And the number is growing rapidly.

    3. You're right that bitcoin holds no patents. But its a payment system like Visa or Paypal so doesn't need to. The amount of value transferring over the network on a daily basis is now approaching Paypal levels. The "moat" around a payment system isn't the patents around it, it's the network effect. It's pretty hard to build that. But you're right that some of the alt currencies could potentially do it. My advice would be to own them also.
    Dec 4, 2013. 09:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bitcoin Going Off The Rails On A Crazy Train [View article]
    http://bit.ly/1izQGOY

    A lot of people look at this ratio as an indicator of proportion of speculation to overall currency transactions.
    Dec 4, 2013. 01:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Doesn't Understand Bitcoin Yet, But It Will [View article]
    Ripple has a lot of advantages over bitcoin. It confirms transactions within 1 second. It works for multiple currencies. It'll be interesting to see if it takes off.
    Dec 3, 2013. 10:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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