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PR Conservative

PR Conservative
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  • Recently, the market learned that youth unemployment in Italy hit 40% in April to go along with a 36-year record high of 12% overall unemployment. Never fear though, Italy's trade union CGIL is out with its estimate of when the Italian economy will recover pre-crisis (un)employment levels: 2076, a mere 63 years from now. (original article[View news story]
    Developed economies would never reach full employment again, time to grasp reality. Excluding economies with very high natural resources quantities above their internal needs.
    Jun 2, 2013. 03:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
    Home prices are going up across the country. Seeing a lot of activity in Florida, California, Michigan and Arizona. These states are recovering nicely. A lot of people thought that these states would never see such recovery.
    May 28, 2013. 09:46 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Economist Laurence Ball says central bankers' goal of 2% inflation is misguided, among other reasons, because it leaves them with very little ammunition to fight future recessions. But would 4% inflation hurt the economy? History suggests not. [View news story]
    That's a good point.Illegal immigration depresses low skilled workers wages by increasing the supply of such labor at a time when we don't need more low skilled workers. We have too many working bees already.
    May 27, 2013. 09:04 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Economist Laurence Ball says central bankers' goal of 2% inflation is misguided, among other reasons, because it leaves them with very little ammunition to fight future recessions. But would 4% inflation hurt the economy? History suggests not. [View news story]
    4% inflation? What the hell?

    That would start pushing costs too much, which could led to politicians increasing minimum wages too much. That would be tantamount to economic "suicide".
    May 26, 2013. 05:57 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Time To Buy Gold? [View article]
    "It is time to buy gold"? It depends on the person.

    I bought gold a long long time ago. Wouldn't sell or buy it at this time.
    May 26, 2013. 09:45 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why This Long-Time Bull Is Moving To The Sidelines [View article]
    Good article by Alan. I sold a lot of long equity positions last week, mainly because we hit new all time highs, and profits are profits. These equity positions I sold were positions that I bought in late 2008, early 2009 and rest of 2010. I still hold PM, some high yield stocks and a couple of bonds funds.
    May 26, 2013. 09:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The U.S. economy may suffer from high unemployment, mediocre productivity gains and stagnant earnings for households, but George Mason University's Tyler Cowen provides five indicators that "the future is starting to brighten." These are: an increase in high-school graduation to 78% in 2010, the most since 1974; the falling cost of further education; slowing healthcare inflation; the "new era of cheap energy;" and the increasing ability of innovators around the world to supply new technology to the U.S. [View news story]
    We need to cut imports, we need to stop immigration, we need to stop giving incentives for not working. Until then, the economy would keep on a slow death trajectory.
    May 26, 2013. 09:10 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apr. Retail Sales: +0.1% vs. -0.3% expected, -0.05% prior (revised). Ex-auto -0.1% in-line with expectations. [View news story]
    Great Retail Sales numbers overall. We are still growing slowly but i prefer that as a shareholder.
    May 13, 2013. 03:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Feb. S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index: +1.2% M/M vs. +1.0% expected, +1.0% prior. [View news story]
    Prices are going up and the doomers were saying in 2009, 2010, 2011 that prices were never going to be up again!

    A lot of seeking alpha doomers have gone poof! Nothing like eating crow isn't it doomers?
    Apr 30, 2013. 11:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index: -15.6 vs. +5.0 expected, +7.4 previous. Production fell to -0.5 from +9.9. New Orders -4.9 from +9 - the first negative reading this year. Prices +2.5 vs. +19.1. Expectations -6.7 vs. +15.3[View news story]
    This report is meaningless, the economy is doing well.
    Apr 29, 2013. 03:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Paul Krugman: "The austerity agenda looks a lot like a simple expression of upper-class preferences, wrapped in a facade of academic rigor. What the top 1% wants becomes what economic science says we must do." Ken Langone responds: Runaway deficits are the older generation "stealing" from the young, and Paul Krugman has never met a payroll and doesn't have to worry about profit margins. [View news story]
    As long as productivity and innovation occurs living standards would rise. All else is just noise.

    Government intrusion can slow down innovation. The leaner the government the better. More government spending is a sign that excess production is faltering and productivity is waning.
    Apr 28, 2013. 10:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • "There are less ways to cheat on a balance sheet than an income statement," says Bruce Berkowitz, explaining why he focuses on the one rather than the other (and why he'll probably never be a buyer of auto stocks). In this great 35-minute chat from late last year, he again makes his case for AIG and BAC - "it's the 90s all over again" - and SHLD - selling for the liquidation value of its merchandise; the brands and the real estate are free. [View news story]
    Financial Services companies can use their balance sheet to hide liabilities, there are also off balance sheet vehicles to do so.

    One can't just rely on a single financial statement to get a conclusion. One has to look at all, BS, IS, CF, SE.....etc.
    Apr 28, 2013. 10:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver: Do Not Be Fooled - Lower Prices Ahead [View article]
    I really don't know if silver prices are going to go down more or not. What I know is that I would keep my silver holdings untouched for the moment. I still hold silver bought from 2000.

    By the way, I also hold equities and bonds. Having gold and silver doesn't make a person anti-equity... a stereotype brought by fanatics.
    Apr 28, 2013. 07:18 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Precious Metal Miners Are For Trading: Add Some On Dips [View article]
    I hold gold equites from 2003 which are still up a lot. I traded in-out in 2008-2009 to make some decent gains. Overall I prefer to hold the gold itself.

    By having a mix of gold, bonds and equites I have done very well.
    Apr 28, 2013. 07:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Spanish unemployment rose to a fresh record of 27.2% in Q1 from 26% in the previous quarter and topped consensus of 26.5%, with 6.2M people out of work. Youth unemployment increased to 57.2%. The figures "highlight the serious situation of the Spanish economy as well as the shocking decoupling between the real and the financial economy," says Citi strategist Jose Luis Martinez. Ibex -1.1%. (PR[View news story]
    Population growth in Spain is now negative for the first time since a long, long time ago.

    Let's look at Spain's problems:
    1) They have high labor costs and high regulatory burden which prevents outsize gains in exports.
    2) Internal Demand is going down as taxes are punitive.
    3) Credit is nonexistent for those employed.
    4) Productivity is below those of German, Belgian workers.
    5) Fixed exchange vis a vis with manufacturing powerhouse Germany which prevents any long term gain in economic gains overall.
    Apr 28, 2013. 07:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment