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bigredmachine

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  • Buy These 4 Cheap 'Turnaround' Stocks For Major Upside Potential In 2013 [View article]
    Need to do some more research. They issued a convert last yr to stay afloat. Much of the short base may be convertible arbitrage. Completely taken to the cleaners by their bankers. Conversion price is something like 2.50. $10 in a cpl yrs. no chance.

    Could it rise to 2.50 to 3 yes.
    Jan 29 09:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Reasons I Bought This $1.30 Lottery Ticket From The Energy Sector [View article]
    12802taa9, settlesd 7/18/12, bloomberg showing a price of 93.5 currently, yes it is a private
    Oct 17 06:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Reasons I Bought This $1.30 Lottery Ticket From The Energy Sector [View article]
    Helix and cal dive are two separate companies with the split happening in 2006. Cal dive (dvr) has an 86mm convert with a 5 yr maturity outstanding and 5% coupon
    Oct 16 02:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Reasons I Bought This $1.30 Lottery Ticket From The Energy Sector [View article]
    That cusip is a Helix Energy Solutions convert
    Oct 15 05:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Reasons I Bought This $1.30 Lottery Ticket From The Energy Sector [View article]
    Debt is a lot lower. Approx 85mm convert and 60mm bank loan/credit line. They used the convert to any down the term loan so there must be some double counting in the finra number.

    No idea on liquidation value as they have mostly older equipment but the convert is trading around 88. Had been over 100 but took a dive along with the stock over the last 2 weeks
    Oct 14 02:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Reasons I Bought This $1.30 Lottery Ticket From The Energy Sector [View article]
    10 reasons to be cautious:

    1. Have repeatedly needed relief from debt covenants over the past 2 yeas.
    2. Recently issued a convert as their liquidity was virtually down to zero. they got taken to the cleaners by their bankers.
    3. Low natural gas prices have reduced drilling
    4. Have aging equipment. Have been liquidating assets to try and pay off debt and/or limit maintenance capex.
    5. One of their largest competitors (global) was bought out by technip making them a competitor with much deeper pockets and more fully integrated offerings
    6. Have reduced pricing simply to try and hold on to market share
    7. Head of strategy just resigned or was let go without any sort of pr describing why or if there is a new strategy
    8. Listen to any conference call. Installs no confidence that they have any sort of cohesive plan
    9. The real prospect that they may violate the fixed charge covenant if they can't start generating ebitda in sufficient amounts to cover maintenance capex and interest/principal pmts
    10. Lackluster recent permitting in the gulf
    Bonus. Storms in the gulf likely hit ebitda last quarter potentially directly impacting 1 and 9 from above. Pemex business looks to be waning after promising start to year. They recently awarded business to a new entrant which will likely further limit DVr's Pemex future business

    The convert effectively caps the share price at 2.50 to 3. If they can hang around without additional dilution to stay afloat perhaps it tries to fill the gap up there over time. They have some possibilities in Australia, cape wind may help to keep them afloat and perhaps things Improve for them in the gulf, A board member did purchase recently in the high 1's which is intriguing.

    All in all the stock reflects the situation of a company in deep trouble with mgmt who don't have a comprehensive plan on how to turn it around. A lottery ticket for sure
    Oct 10 02:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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