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  • More Thoughts On Google [View article]
    As for lawsuits, Google beating Oracle to crap in the court and holding off FTC should be strong evidence of Google's legal expertise and political skills.
    Apr 11 08:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • More Thoughts On Google [View article]
    A serious mistake people are making is to assume that it's easy to build Search. Microsoft has burnt tens of billions to develop the Bing, spent another tens of billions to bribe people to bing, but couldn't take a single percentage market share from Google. Isn't that enough evidence that search is actually a very hard thing?
    Apr 11 08:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft Is Making A Move [View article]
    Yes, it just made a typical pump and dump move
    Apr 11 10:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft Offers Investors An Annualized Gross Return Of Up To 25% Over The Next 5 Years [View article]
    IDC just reported Q1 PC sales down 14% YoY.

    Given today's alternatives, it's almost criminal to charge $100+ for Windows and $200+ for Office. Microsoft will be lucky to push them for $15 and $30 in not so distant future, and that's the mother of all margin compressions!

    You think your pathetic dividend is safe?
    Apr 10 09:40 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Global PC shipments fell 13.9% Y/Y in Q1 to 76.9M units, per IDC. That surpasses Q4's 6.4% drop and Q3's 8.6% decline, and is steep even in light of IDC's recent commentary. IDC: "It seems clear that the Windows 8 (MSFT) launch not only didn’t provide a positive boost to the PC market, but appears to have slowed the market." H-P (HPQ) was the market's leader, but its share fell 200 bps Y/Y to 15.7%. #2 Lenovo (LNVGY.PK) saw its share rise 210 bps to 15.3%, and #3 Dell's rose 40 bps to 11.8%. Apple's (AAPL) U.S. share rose 60 bps to 10%, though U.S. Mac shipments fell 7.5% to 1.4M. [View news story]
    Which means Win 8 failed to what it tried to achieve: getting people back on the upgrade treadmill.

    Given today's alternatives, it's absolutely a waste of money to cough up $100+ for Windows and $200+ for Office. Microsoft will be lucky to push them for $15 and $30 in not so distant future, and that's the mother of all margin compressions!
    Apr 10 09:38 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed's stress tests on banks have helped strengthen the financial system and contributed to the economic recovery, Ben Bernanke said last night in a speech. Bernanke noted that the 18 banks that were subject to the first stress tests in 2009 have more than doubled their Tier 1 capital to 11.3% from 5.6%, representing a net gain of nearly $400B to $800B. However, banks need to reduce their reliance on unreliable short-term funding. [View news story]
    Well, if you tried the Mellonite Liquidationist approach, then the financial system would have collapsed, your savings would be wiped out, unemployment rate would reach 25+%, there would be rioting in the street, crime would be out of control, and a real crazy one like Hitler could seize the power.

    Is that what you want?
    Apr 9 11:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft - Growing Strength In The Enterprise Is Where The Real Value Is [View article]
    You Microsoft shills will be for a rude awakening very soon.

    As for your Yammer and Skype acquisitions, Microsoft will be writing them off in a few years, just like it did with Acquaintive and countless others before. Microsoft, with its inbred corporate culture and excellent turf-fighting mentality, has never and will never make successful acquisitions.

    The cloud margin will be that of Amazon's, vs 60+% for boxed Windows and Office. If you think Apple's iPhone margin contraction is going to be bad, you will get a real eye opener with Microsoft's rip-off stuffs.

    So be prepared.
    Apr 9 10:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gartner Indicates That MSFT May Be In Some Serious Trouble [View article]
    I would not pay much attention to 5 years forecast from these guys.

    You could check their past predictions and find out how they suck.
    Apr 6 05:30 AM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trends In The Cost Of Energy [View article]
    Global oil reserve is significantly greater than 1 trillion barrels.

    A wise person said a long time ago that the world left stone age not because we ran out stones.

    Similarly, we will leave the fossile fuel age not because we run out of them, but because better alternatives are developed.

    Nevertheless, this article is excellent.
    Apr 6 01:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Wind And Solar Share Fatal Flaws: Politics And Variability Of Output [View article]
    The transition to solar and wind will be a gradual process.

    At $100 oil and $4 gas, solar is already competitive in places where the sun shines a lot, and wind is competitive in places where it blows a lot.

    As production costs for fossil fuels continue to rise as these resources get depleted, the cost for solar and wind will drop as technology advances, allowing them to take more and more market shares.

    The author unfortunately has a very static world view and is incapable of factoring technology changes. He further confuses solar stock investment with viability of the solar energy. An entire industry could very well flourish, while the companies themselves suffer big times (US railroad prior to 1980, US automobile, global airlines, global steel...).
    Apr 5 05:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Express Scripts: Strong EPS And Cash Flow, But Some Questions Too [View article]
    Low ROE and ROA are results of merge related expenses.

    Once they get worked off in a few quarters, ROE and ROA will spike.

    Don't just rely on Yahoo Finance for analysis.
    Apr 5 05:22 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Good Times Ahead For Nokia? [View article]
    Despite much pumping and thumping, Nokia just shut down its largest retail store in China.

    That should tell you about how much demand there really is in China.

    With Google's X Phone and iPhone 5s, much better phones will be selling at lower prices. Google, Apple, Samsung, and Huawei have the necessary means to fight out a protracted price war and still invest tons in R&D. What can Nokia do?
    Apr 5 04:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's What Happened The Last Time The Fed Owned All Outstanding Treasuries [View article]
    This is an excellent article, thanks!
    Apr 5 02:33 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's What Happened The Last Time The Fed Owned All Outstanding Treasuries [View article]
    Here are some numbers for Germany around early 1920s:

    National debt at 420% of GDP;

    Loss of 30% population and territory, loss of general sovereignty;

    War reparation payments multiple times its national GDP;

    Benefits for 11 million war veterans in a population of 67 million;

    Rebellions and uprisings by both extreme left and right


    The final push toward hyperinflation was the occupation of Ruhr region by the Entente. In case you don't know, the Ruhr was then the German industrial core and contributed more than 30% of its GDP.


    You think the US is gonna fall as hard as the Germans then?
    Apr 5 02:32 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Imperial Oil: 5-Year Minimum Annual Gross Return Of 15%, Undervalued 17.9% Relative To Exxon [View article]
    Don't you know that all oil sand projects are pretty much doomed, if the US shale oil production continues its current trajectory for another few years?

    In addition, IMO fouled up its Kearl River project, and it costs $110k per 1 barrel of bitumen production per day. Canadian National also spent that much, but at least it's getting the same money for SCO, which costs $40 more than the raw bitumen.
    Apr 4 09:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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