LR European

Gold Closing In on 20% Above 200-Day Moving Average

Its not different this time. That's the point. Gold has always been a refuge at times of uncertainty. Deflation is as much a driver as inflation.

I think you are almost certain to be proved right in your doubt, but no time soon and not until the price is substantially higher. There is no mania visible. The article makes the case quite convincingly that inflows into gold have slowed not accelerated. That is not the sort pattern seen at bubble peaks.


On Nov 18 04:04 PM woollyB wrote:

> Gold looks like tech in 1999 and real estate in 2005. Nobody thinks
> it can go down. If you think gold can only go up from here, its
> all-time high, you should explain why "this time is different." And
> if the explanation has to do with inflation, the Fed, etc., well,
> there are always compelling arguments at the top. That's why it's
> a top.

Will India's Changes Bring Headwinds for Gold?

"the success of this venture would, I think have an effect on the price of gold, even from a purely psychological standpoint."

I wonder if you think the effect would be positive or negative on the price of gold.

Some of the arguments in your article seem to suggest that this development will provide an exit route which Indians will leap on and presumably depress the price by flooding the market.

On the other hand, improving the liquidity of an asset almost invariably increases its appeal. If Indians discover that their investments in a store of wealth are now more readily converted to cash than before, surely they are vindicated?

The problem would come only when India faced a time of hardship leading to forced sales, but it is a myth to suggest that Indians have only ever been buying gold, so what changes there?

Sounds to me like the positive effects overwhelm the negative.

Gold and Silver Bells Are Ringing

Not keen to get involved in this, but am motivated to comment once more by the sad and destructive attitude that is being displayed.

Until not so long ago the dominant influence in financial market relationships was the concept of caveat emptor - buyer beware. Although in the current environment of compliance and regulation this might seem a dangerous world, what this meant in practice was that advisors who did not act with integrity held brief tenure and were quickly displaced: a free market at its best. Today, with the box ticking compliance culture deception and fraud is just as easy to perpetrate but it is usually more covert. The main casualty is excellence and the impulse from advisers to actually protect and help their clients/ readers (to win trust and benefit from loyalty and business).

It seems to me that the less rule-bound forum of internet advice offers the hope of a return to the sort of excellence and flair of the old caveat emptor culture. People will only follow advice from an unknown contributor if they display consistency and flair.

So, what do we have here? It seems to me that the advice provided by Gold Guru on NTO would have provided any reader with a modicum of independence of thought with sufficient evidence to buy the stock even in the absence of a full on buy recommendation. It is therefore understandable (and forgivable) that performance statistics were included as evidence of the quality of information being analysed. It is equally understandable that you point out that this is not strictly correct and suggest that the data is excluded. The prompt modification of the stats by gold guru and clear explanation of what happened is commendable - but you seem unwilling to let this go.

In a compliance driven market, gold guru would be fined or face some other regulatory control. In an internet / caveat emptor market, gold guru recognises that persistent misrepresentation will put an end to his enterprise because the trust and loyalty of readers will be undermined. In the first case there is no forgiveness, only punishment. In the second we have the potential for redemption through self-correction, with the alternative of total destruction.

Gold Guru has acknowledged the potential problem, corrected the web site and therefore renewed the unspoken contract with his followers. Obviously if there was a pattern of deception it would be a different matter, but for now this is a mistake which we can move on from without seeking punishment. For God's sake let's not impose the mediocrity that now afflicts institutional analysis on the free-market internet model. Let's continue to be wary of course, but not get tied up in knots every time there is an understanable human mistake.

Over and out! ;-)

Gold and Silver Bells Are Ringing

Excuse me for butting in on this playground exchange. Initially interesting and amusing, I have to say that by the end anon has become outright boring. Your comments have been answered and addressed with patience, the web site performance page updated and yet.... what's wrong with you?!

I have never looked at gold guru's website before, but intend to do so regularly in future as this is someone capable of retaining perspective in the face of a true neurotic. Weekend advice was spot on. Hope the stock advice will be as sensible.