7c-ranch

No Sign of a Credit Crunch Outside of Real Estate

I don't doubt the anecdotal evidence of good borrowers getting credit. The probablem is always from the marginal consumer/small business.
I would refer you to the following paper presented at Brandeis in March:
Leveraged Losses: Lessons from the Mortgage Market Meltdown†
David Greenlaw, Jan Hatzius, Anil K Kashyap, Hyun Song Shin
US Monetary Policy Forum Conference Draft

The Fed is Deflating: 10 Reasons Why

Excellent-very thoughtful and thought provoking.

Will Credit Market Flight to Safety Boost Stock Prices?

Is this serious? I would love to see returns of investors that simply use bills plus a simple risk premium as the discount rate. Please keep posts useful.

US Savings Rate Based On Outdated Methods of Calculation

Everyone, I thought, knew this. It is curious that we are just now publicly recognizing that Americans do save.

Sandisk Shouldn't Be Threatened By Intel/STMicro Agreement

Thanks, well written.

Whole Foods Earnings Disappoint - Now It's a Bounce Candidate

Alan, you have had a great call on the recent price movement; I thank you for that. I respect the thoroughness of managements comments. I also think this is my generation's (50+) pharmaceutical company. I worry about p/e compression but I am long term very bullish on this company.

John Hussman: Don't Believe Stocks Are Cheap Based On The Fed Model

If you are suggesting that stock and bond data pre 1980 are valid ignores the incredible changes that occured; namely: Rule 415, rapidly declining transaction costs, information/tranparenc... to a broad array of market participants. In the 80's we recognized the discrepancy in the data; you are arguing an old point which was resolved long ago.

Despite Yesterday's Rally, We're Still In Trouble

I have rarely in the last 30 years seen a scenario where lenders had the opportunity to get into trouble that they avoided. That said, US equities are severely underowned; while yield producing funds are still highly sought after. This could end badly for fixed income investors and tangentially affect US equities; but to suggest that US equities are expensive or investors are irrationally exhuberant is wrong.

John Hussman: The Good News Is, Hedges Are Cheap Here

Read Hussman's archives, his comments have been wrong for 20 percent at least. I suspect, like Kass, he will be right at some point--who cares.

To Worry or Not to Worry: The Eternal Market Question

Very complete summary of both sides-helpful.

Commodities Outperform During Equity Market Downturns

This analysis misses the point I have made for over one year. If a vast percentage of investors are seeking non-correlated returns by investing in similar asset classes won't those assets perform the same as traditional asset classes. Put simply, if everyone is seeking alpha it is no longer alpha.These strategies have only been employed by retail investors since 2002; thus making 5 year comparisons invald. Anecdotally, at a fundraiser last night, no one asked me about the stock market, they wanted to know why gold was trading so poorly.

Whole Foods: Love the Company, Avoiding the Stock

Very good analysis. I like the store as well and have been looking for an entry point. Does the foregoing suggest 38 as the level--or no level?

Have We Already Reached the Market's Turning Point?

Thank you for the very thoughtful coments. I start by stating that most people. like myself are neither permabull nor permabear; I merely want to employ capital in a thoughtful, efficient manner. This analysis, in one form or another is going around quite a bit. I am confused. I did my own research and found that indeed US corporate profits increased from 7% of GDP in 2001 to 10.3% of GDP currently. This analysis at its core proposes that this measure means US markets are expensive to EU markets, among other things. When I look at EU corporate profits to GDP they have been at 10-11% since 2001;in fact they were 7% of GDP last in 1994. Why then is not the conclusion that US company's outsourcing production to other countries; following the lead of EU counterparts, causing the percentage of profits to GDP to mirror the EU ratio? On that basis, the risk to the market is protectionism and capital controls that would push the percentage in the US lower. If that were to occur, I agree the market would decline dramatically. Otherwise, the analysis seems not to fit the anecdotal and actual changes in how US companies compete globally.

Merrill: Intel's More Interested In Crushing AMD Than Improving Margins

I think Osha is correct, in fact the trade of last year was long INTC/short AMD on that basis and relative financial strength to carry out the threat. Now, what is wrong with a dominant market player, with good cash flow and 50% GM's? Does it have to get back to 60% GM to warrant a pretty secure 18 P/E or even suggest a 20% P/E?

P/E Ratios at Japanese Electronics Companies

Thank you.