7c-ranch

The Fed is Deflating: 10 Reasons Why

Excellent-very thoughtful and thought provoking.

Will Credit Market Flight to Safety Boost Stock Prices?

Is this serious? I would love to see returns of investors that simply use bills plus a simple risk premium as the discount rate. Please keep posts useful.

Despite Yesterday's Rally, We're Still In Trouble

I have rarely in the last 30 years seen a scenario where lenders had the opportunity to get into trouble that they avoided. That said, US equities are severely underowned; while yield producing funds are still highly sought after. This could end badly for fixed income investors and tangentially affect US equities; but to suggest that US equities are expensive or investors are irrationally exhuberant is wrong.

Commodities Outperform During Equity Market Downturns

This analysis misses the point I have made for over one year. If a vast percentage of investors are seeking non-correlated returns by investing in similar asset classes won't those assets perform the same as traditional asset classes. Put simply, if everyone is seeking alpha it is no longer alpha.These strategies have only been employed by retail investors since 2002; thus making 5 year comparisons invald. Anecdotally, at a fundraiser last night, no one asked me about the stock market, they wanted to know why gold was trading so poorly.

Defending This Bull Market Once Again

I have been cautious since November, not bearish but conservative in my allocations. My performance should have suffered greatly in the traditional context of a bull market. Instead, the value, reit, dividend plays have vastly outperformed the market indexes and growth stocks, especially. Anecdotally, people just want to beat CD's, they are not bullish, they don't speak of great stocks. As to margin debt, I do know people borrowing against their holdings but it is a rational move vis equity return expections equal to or slightly higher than borowing costs. Over the past 15 years we have become rational borrows. It is also emblematic of people who have large nonqualified investments and say college tuition payments. My fear is these people dont think gold, commodities, utilities, reits, banks have the same risk as "stocks". When I speak of great value in growth stocks people actually turn white with fear. Try asking someone older than 50 what they think of INTC; if they have an answer the fear in their voice is almost palpable. So I am increasingly less fearful of US market valuations; now if someone could explain to me the relentless increase in foreign stocks vis US stocks, I would be most grateful.

S&P 500's 10%+ Earnings Growth Streak in Jeopardy

While I have been cautious in my allocation to date, it is conclusions like this that make me bullish. I, like Roy only see a consistant seasonal pattern.