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  • Microsoft Keeps Its Head In The Cloud [View article]
    MSFT has become a growth company again, so 19x earnings is reasonable.
    Apr 24, 2015. 02:55 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lessons From A Dozen Years Of Short Selling [View article]
    The challenge with options is not only one has to get the direction right, he has to get the timing perfect as well. It's hard enough to get the timing "generally right", let alone "impeccably right". I got some wins / losses; but to be frank, it seems like it was due to luck (or lack of) rather than a complete science. Yeah, there are spreads and such, but there are so many pros out there that it's hard to beat them. For a part-time guy (like most of SA readers here), it'd be hard to make profits consistently.
    Mar 1, 2015. 10:17 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cenovus Energy: Diluted By The Oil Sands [View article]
    @rcray - I'm with you. They could have delayed Foster Creek as its net back is lower than Christina Lake. It can then drop the dividend, and then it should have enough cash flow to cover the expansion at Christina Lake. I'd also contend that there are more rooms in the workforce (i.e. op ex) to cut than the announced 15%. Look at MEG Energy, they are able to have cap ex under $7 / bbl! Now that's a lean-and-mean player.
    Feb 22, 2015. 04:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil pares losses after EIA supply data [View news story]
    @David, Cushing can actually store up to 80 million barrels ( - so storage won't run out for another 4 months or so. The 2-month window is a myth. Also Cushing is very important, but it's not the only storage. IMHO, what this means is a) companies that sell into Cushing will experience lower net-back compared to E & P that don't b) there won't be a V-curve recovery in crude price, as there will still be a huge inventory to clear first.
    Feb 19, 2015. 10:30 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil Supply Accelerating - Saudi Arabia Delivering On Its Promise? [View article]

    Quote: "Operating costs at Christina Lake were $12.08 per barrel (bbl) .... Non-fuel operating costs were $8.22/bbl" => that is $20 / bbl right there for op ex / bbl; which is exactly why I said op ex / bbl is $20+.

    A little bit down regarding Foster Creek: "Operating costs at Foster Creek averaged $19.38/bbl...Non-fuel operating costs were $14.78/bbl" => that is $35 / bbl op ex right there!

    You just prove my point!!! I work in the industry so I know these costs very well.

    Here's an article for you:
    Jan 27, 2015. 09:37 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Time To Return To Investing In Silver? A Look At Silver Wheaton [View article]
    Everybody expects PM will fall. The sentiment is very negative. Which is to say it's the time to buy. There is no doubt that we are in a deflationary stage now. PM does best in deflationary environment.
    Jan 27, 2015. 09:23 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil Supply Accelerating - Saudi Arabia Delivering On Its Promise? [View article]
    Sorry, I don't buy that $10 and $50 numbers. Try $20+ for op ex. The best all-in cost for brown fields developments are around $65. Green field developments would require minimum $80. That is why projects are deferred or cancelled, and layoffs are happening.
    Jan 27, 2015. 01:46 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Biggest day for oil in more than two years [View news story]
    Futures expire different from stocks.
    Jan 14, 2015. 11:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. rig count plunges in past week but still exceeds year-ago count [View news story]
    And they gave greater discount to Europe and America. They want to win the market share back.
    Jan 6, 2015. 03:15 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil takes out $50 [View news story]
    @Investor: I agree if one is trading Oil and for the long term. However, if one trades the O & G stocks; there may be more bloodbath to come yet. There may be more goodwill / assets write off in the next couple quarters; which will scare the heck out of the market. That's when to buy.
    Jan 6, 2015. 12:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. rig count plunges in past week but still exceeds year-ago count [View news story]
    Commodity is trading in trends. It's one of the instruments where trend trading has historically been shown to be statistically true. Until there is a strong indicator, the trend won't reverse easily. Many people tried to fish for the bottom last week and now are getting whiplashed. Too early.
    Jan 5, 2015. 11:38 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. rig count plunges in past week but still exceeds year-ago count [View news story]
    What is missing from the headline is they are getting more oil per well compared to last year thanks to better techniques. The total output is still on track to be higher than last year at this point. After this week's bloodbath, it will probably change. However, production won't go down as fast as some may expect.
    Jan 5, 2015. 11:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Seeking Alpha Contributors Top List Of Best Performing Financial Bloggers [View article]
    Well, I'm not trying to be a smart a.. but technically speaking, one could go long Vale and short CLF based on that thesis. That would have been a 20% gain.
    Jan 5, 2015. 11:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cenovus Energy Can Be A Value Creator [View article]
    CVE has a lot of attractive assets, but the management is sub-par. I expect they will follow ECA footsteps and divert some of their assets to unlock values. A patient play though.
    Oct 13, 2014. 11:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Forget Keystone - Canada moves toward oil route around Obama [View news story]
    They only need to build net-new pipeline from Québec Eastward. They will re-use the existing lines from Alberta to Ontario. Québec is the only province that has any potential concerns.
    Oct 8, 2014. 07:52 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment