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4Tom

4Tom
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  • Is Linn Energy The Right Oil Play? [View article]
    Is Linn Energy the Right Oil Play. NO!

    Upstream Exploration and Production companies are not the place to be, at least until the supply demand picture gets into more balance.

    Crude Oil (energy) is in a bear market and it is not over. Don't dismiss those suggesting crude may have to go to $30 to get supply/demand in balance. What do you think Linn will be worth if crude should drop below $35. What do you think is going to happen in Nov-Dec with tax-loss selling.

    Reading the comments accompanying the Linn articles I am amazed at how many keep averaging down. Averaging down in a company whose fundamentals have changed so dramatically really needs to be questioned.
    Aug 26, 2015. 08:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Surveying The Situation: Stay The Course (Including OXLC) [View article]
    I always look forward to and enjoy your "income factory" articles as I have a similar approach to investing. The results of my income factory over the past year are very similar to what you have reported. This "Staying the Course" article was reassuring after the last few days as that was pretty much my plan. It is obvious that many income investors have little conviction in their investments and have not learned that you have to stick around to collect the dividends/distributions.

    In one of the previous comments above you mentioned that you like FOF, EVV, and MPV. In the past you have written articles about individual CEF's like FOF that you like. If you felt inclined to write similar articles in the future regarding other CEF's you like and why I think there would be a lot of interest.
    Aug 25, 2015. 03:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Equity CEFs: Back Up The Truck On SCD [View instapost]
    8/21/2015

    SCD dropped to $13.90 this morning on a 50% increase in volume. Just checked again and it is now $13.74. Market price is a -15.71% to NAV.

    Doug, curious what are your current thoughts on this one. This kind of price action certainly makes decision making more challenging with investors apparently panicking.
    Aug 21, 2015. 11:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • John Hancock Patriot Dividend Fund: Am I Missing Something? [View article]
    http://bit.ly/1Ta6Tgg

    Hi bstacy98406,

    If you are long PDT you should receive the "Notification of Sources of Distribution" monthly from John Hancock as I do. Click on the above link for July in case you don't receive it. The July report shows that the distribution is 77% from income and the remaining 23% to be from long term capital gains. The report does not report any return of capital. ??? I took a look on cefconnect and it shows a slightly positive unii for PDT. I have heard numerous reports of outdated data on cefconnect so I prefer going to the funds website for the best up to date information. The above July report also shows that NAV growth has been quite strong/positive for the past 5 years. The fund has a little more exposure to leverage than I would like to see but for the time being I'm okay with it not expecting another 2007-2008 debacle right away.
    Aug 9, 2015. 01:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • John Hancock Patriot Dividend Fund: Am I Missing Something? [View article]
    A followup comment to my previous thoughts.

    Take a look at the 10 year market price of PDT using the graph on SA.
    Aug 8, 2015. 05:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is NexPoint The Next REIT To Return 50%? [View article]
    http://bit.ly/1kOmjGP

    James Dondero is still making his monthly purchases of NHF and NXRT. Check the above link for confirmation and history.

    >July 1, 2015 he purchased 22,799 shares of NXRT for $308,452.

    > June 26, 2015 he purchased 159,121 shares of NHF for $1.228,427. He has been making similar monthly investments in NHF for the past couple of years.

    If there are any fund managers more committed to their funds than Dondero I would like to hear about them. He obviously has a lot of confidence in both NHF and NXRT which to me implies his interests are aligned with those of us investors. It also tells me he has an awful lot of confidence in what he is doing with the fund's investments. NHF's current ~15% discount to NAV and 11% yield is somewhat noteworthy so I most likely pickup a few more shares Monday.

    Long NXRT and NHF.
    Aug 8, 2015. 02:44 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • John Hancock Patriot Dividend Fund: Am I Missing Something? [View article]
    I was reviewing my investments today and was kind taken once again with PDT so I thought I would do a search on SA for any recent articles. It would appear that PDT has been renamed the John Hancock Premium Dividend Fund. This is one of my favorite CEF's. This author really hit the nail on the head with this article.

    Here is my history with PDT in my IRA though we own it in all family accounts. I first purchased 1100 shares in Sept/Oct of 2013. I purchased another 300 shares in Sept 2014 when they increased their monthly dividend from $.08 to $.09 per month. I like to reward dividend increases with additional purchases to a point (account percentage.) I have re-invested the dividend since the first purchase. I now have 1842.8347 shares.

    Ok, this is where the fun begins for me. That original 1400 shares I purchased produced $1344 per year in income which has been re-invested each month which is why I now have 1842 shares. My 1842 shares produce $1989 per year assuming the $.08/mo or $.96 per year. To keep the math simple I just kept the dividend constant at the $.08 per month or $.96 per year even though it was raised to $1.08 in Sept 2014. The bottom line is my income has increased to $1989 per year from $1344. That is a 48% increase in my income and I didn't even figure in the dividend increase made in Sept 2014.

    PDT is currently trading at around $13.50, about a -9.5% NAV discount. The 52 week high and low percentages to NAV are -8.07% and -12.47% respectively. The market value seem to always be at about a -10% NAV. I get a monthly report from JH and there is no return of capital that I recall seeing and their 5 year return history is pretty respectable, at least to me. The 8% monthly dividend also works for me. Its market price is fairly stable fluctuating up or down about 10% from where it is today.

    The bottom line here is PDT is a much better recommendation than many of those presented on SA but one you don't hear much about. However, you do have to hang around long enough to collect the dividends.

    Long PDT and getting longer every month.
    Aug 7, 2015. 06:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Linn Energy Drop Has Created A Buying Opportunity For Long-Term Investors [View article]
    Linn closed at $3.32 today. Just imagine what you might be able to buy it for in December 2015 when current holders of Linn energy contemplate selling for tax loss reasons.
    Aug 6, 2015. 07:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy: A Closer Look Into The Shocking Distribution Suspension [View article]
    Just heard on the 6:00 news cast that gasoline will be/expected to be below $2.00 per gallon in over 20 states by the end of the year (KRTB-Boise). I expect Linn Energy will really really be a good buy December 2015.
    Aug 1, 2015. 08:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy: A Closer Look Into The Shocking Distribution Suspension [View article]
    I can hardly believe all the SA articles about Linn Energy, especially after being such a loser this past year. Is the worst over for Linn? "No one" really knows because "no one" really knows for sure where the price of crude is going in the future. However, there is certainly an abundance of wishful thinking going regarding both Linn and oil prices.

    Folks, this horse (Linn) has been beat to death in my opinion. In addition, upstream is in a bear market and I don't believe Linn is the strongest in the upstream sector. Which makes me think that there must be better investment scenarious for SA contributors to write about which in turn will most likely produce an improved investment result for their readers.
    Aug 1, 2015. 03:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Memorial Production Partners Now Yields 20% [View article]
    Michael Filloon posted an article on SA regarding meg-fracs a few days ago. Anyone thinking about investing in upstream securities should read Michael's article first. The article provides some really interesting insight into what is going on with oil production in the US. It is just possible that the bottom for oil has not yet been reached. Thirty dollar oil or less "may" be in the cards as some have predicted. No one knows for sure. That is probably why investor sentiment in the oil sector is so depressed and why it may stay that way much longer than any of us might have ever thought possible.
    Jul 29, 2015. 11:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Mega-Fracs Are The Reason U.S. Oil Production Remains High In A Low-Price Environment [View article]
    It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that $30 oil or "less" could easily be in the cards in the not to distant future. Who would have though it possible two years ago.
    The best thing about $30 oil is it will make it tough on Iran.

    Thanks for a very informative and interesting article.
    Jul 27, 2015. 07:05 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Mega-Fracs Are The Reason U.S. Oil Production Remains High In A Low-Price Environment [View article]
    Thanks for a very interesting article.
    Jul 27, 2015. 05:27 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CEFL At All-Time Low, But 21.8% Dividend Yield Makes It A Buy [View article]
    It's July 27 and the CEFL price this AM is ~$18.56 with a yield of 23.73%. This could/should be a really great buy at this point but I'm a "big chicken." I'm sure the 2X leverage is part of the reason for the big drop in price.

    There is an old saying that goes like this: " A pig gets fat and a hog gets slaughtered." However, it might/could/should be a great buy at this point, just not for this "big chicken."
    Jul 27, 2015. 12:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Closed End Funds: Total Return Or NAV Return? [View article]
    In addition to CEFConnect.com, I find that CEFA.com provides some interesting information. You can select different CEF's and construct a portfolio and then it provides comparative values such as YTD NAV changes and 1 year returns etc. It is easier to compare CEF's (at least for me) on CEFA.com. I don't use it as often as CEFConnect but it is another tool to keep in mind as I often read on SA that CEFconnect data is not up to date.
    Jul 22, 2015. 12:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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