First Solar Pushes To Break Out Of China's Shadow [View article]
Great discussion. I just followed your link again, Dana. Let me quote from there:
<quote>First Solar today announced that it has produced a cadmium telluride solar cell with a 17.3 percent efficiency, shattering a ten-year-old record set by NREL.
The old record was 16.7 percent and was set in 2001. In solar, that's like breaking a record set by Jesse Owens in Berlin. Most records in this business inch the mark up by one to two tenths of a percentage point.</unquote>
Was the last record really 10 years ago (I simply do not know)? One or two tenths a year would be 1 or 2 %-points by now. That does look not so impressive. (Or is there a spelling error in the 2001 figure? And did they achieve 16.7 % in large scale production by now? And if not in 10 years, why shall they achieve 17.3 % now?
First Solar Pushes To Break Out Of China's Shadow [View article]
Interesting discussion and good points made. Maybe someone could write an article on cell/module efficiency improvements from different technologies during the last years or even plot a graph. As far as I know, cSi made somewhat better improvements. I also found the gross-margin statement on FSLR interesting. If you look at Q3 earnings at the polysilicon to panel value chain, there is still some margin left to compress for conventional technology. And shouldn't we expect a bunch of folks working on conventional technology making faster improvements than FSLR alone? I personally would also ask myself: do i really want to have CdTe on my roof from a health and environmental point of view? Why take risk as long as conventional technology is not more expensive? FSLR moving downstream was new to me. Its kind of the same strategy MEMC (ticker: WFR) is working on in the conventional field. They make polysilicon, solar-wafers and project buisness, covering the missing link in the value chain with JVs. I was never sure whether MEMC moved to the better strategy on purpose - securing long-term energy contracts with non-fluctuating prices supplied from own poly, wafers and contracted modules / panels - or whether this 'move downstream' is just the confession they can neither win the price war on polysilicon, nor wafers or modules. (Only advantage being left is project financing and close contact to authorities granting subsidies - the later one something the Chinese cannot compete in.)
Good News for Solar Energy in Falling Polysilicon Prices [View article]
Dana, i pretty much share your view but would like to address 2 topics. First, with polysilicon prices dropping that fast and the much slower improvement on panel efficiency with other technologies (leaving issues with taking CdTe modules down at the end of their life-span aside), how can First Solar look good in such an environment? Second, shouldn't MEMC profit from this development in the long term, being able to construct projects at lower costs?
_IF_ the FED really gave this warning, I would take it as a warning for falling stock prices. It would also be a warning for the US government regarding the necessary refinancing of their debt ... I highly doubt the FED will raise anytime soon - and if so it will do no good. But - yes - rates cannot go much lower so nobody has to guard against that ...
First Solar: Now A Strong Candidate [View article]
- market is in turmoil
- FSLR technology is potentially not superior
I posted a lenghty, paragraph by paragraph comment on my blog:
http://bit.ly/H8qCF1
5 Undervalued Tech Stocks Poised To Double [View article]
First Solar Pushes To Break Out Of China's Shadow [View article]
<quote>First Solar today announced that it has produced a cadmium telluride solar cell with a 17.3 percent efficiency, shattering a ten-year-old record set by NREL.
The old record was 16.7 percent and was set in 2001. In solar, that's like breaking a record set by Jesse Owens in Berlin. Most records in this business inch the mark up by one to two tenths of a percentage point.</unquote>
Was the last record really 10 years ago (I simply do not know)? One or two tenths a year would be 1 or 2 %-points by now. That does look not so impressive. (Or is there a spelling error in the 2001 figure? And did they achieve 16.7 % in large scale production by now? And if not in 10 years, why shall they achieve 17.3 % now?
First Solar Pushes To Break Out Of China's Shadow [View article]
Maybe someone could write an article on cell/module efficiency improvements from different technologies during the last years or even plot a graph. As far as I know, cSi made somewhat better improvements.
I also found the gross-margin statement on FSLR interesting. If you look at Q3 earnings at the polysilicon to panel value chain, there is still some margin left to compress for conventional technology. And shouldn't we expect a bunch of folks working on conventional technology making faster improvements than FSLR alone?
I personally would also ask myself: do i really want to have CdTe on my roof from a health and environmental point of view? Why take risk as long as conventional technology is not more expensive?
FSLR moving downstream was new to me. Its kind of the same strategy MEMC (ticker: WFR) is working on in the conventional field. They make polysilicon, solar-wafers and project buisness, covering the missing link in the value chain with JVs. I was never sure whether MEMC moved to the better strategy on purpose - securing long-term energy contracts with non-fluctuating prices supplied from own poly, wafers and contracted modules / panels - or whether this 'move downstream' is just the confession they can neither win the price war on polysilicon, nor wafers or modules. (Only advantage being left is project financing and close contact to authorities granting subsidies - the later one something the Chinese cannot compete in.)
Good News for Solar Energy in Falling Polysilicon Prices [View article]
The Fed and other regulators have warned U.S. banks to guard against rising interest rates. [View news story]
But - yes - rates cannot go much lower so nobody has to guard against that ...