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Frank started market timing in 1982 when the Federal Reserve cut interest rates and sparked the 1980’s bull rally. Realizing that this rally could have been forecasted, he began to search for indicators which had similar forecasting ability. Within a year, his first newsletter was launched,... More
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  • Major Supports Broken for S&P 500 Index (SPX) & Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX)

    S&P 500 Index,SPX,S&P Deposit Receipts,SPY,Nasdaq 100 Index,NDX,tracking ETF,Powershares QQQ,QQQQ,market timingMay 21, 2010

    Both the S&P 500 Index (SPX) and its tracking ETF the S&P Deposit Receipts (NYSE: SPY)

    plus the Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) and its tracking ETF the Powershares QQQ (NASDAQ: QQQQ) have broken below key support levels in trading on Thursday, May 20.

    These key supports are the 61.8% retracement levels for the entire February 5 through April 23 market advance. The broken key support levels are 1882.82 for the NDX, 44.57 for the QQQQ, 1111.08 for the SPX and 111.28 for the SPY.

    The losses were on heavy volume and with the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) rallying to 45.79 by the close, we would have to call it panic selling. Panic selling typically occurs at bottoms, so the below support levels, if they are reached, are indeed very critical for the days ahead.

    With the above supports broken, the next support level is at the February 5 intra-day lows for all these positions. For the NDX this support is at 1712.89, for the QQQQ it is at 42.12, for the SPX at 1044.50 and the SPY at 104.58.

    These final support levels are critical for if they are broken, there are only long term support levels left to stop a free fall and all those long term support levels are an additional 10% lower.

    Should we reach them, we will already be in a bear market with 20+% losses. That means we should see the markets rebound soon if this is to be a normal correction. That is why the support levels listed above are crucial to the long term advance we have been enjoying since March of 2009. If we do break below them, we may be seeing the end of the bull market.

    Disclosure: The ( ETF Timing Strategy has positions in the S&P 500 SPDRs and the Powershares QQQ .
    Tags: QQQ, SPY, SPY
    May 20 5:23 PM | Link | Comment!
  • AmerisourceBergen Corp (NYSE: ABC) Still in Uptrend

    May 20, 2010

    Shares of AmerisourceBergen Corp (NYSE: ABC) continue to move high even while the stock market is in the midst of a correction.

    Though AmerisourceBergen did suffer intra-day declines during the computer generated mini-crash two weeks ago, it regained all the lost ground in two days, while the rest of the stock market did not and many stocks are now closing in on those mini-crash lows.

    Over the past five trading days, AmerisourceBergen reached $32.00 intra-day before pulling back to close slightly lower. $32.00 would be an all time closing high for this stock, and considering the health of the stock market at this time, quite an accomplishment for AmerisourceBergen.

    Look for a close above $32.00 a share in coming days to signal a new move higher. If the new high is not reached soon, AmerisourceBergen should weather any upcoming market instability quite well with strong support at about $30.50 a share.

    Disclosure: The ( Stock Timing Strategy holds a position in AmerisourceBergen.
    May 19 5:27 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Dell Inc (NASDAQ: DELL) Breaks Support

    May 19, 2010

    Shares of Dell Inc (NASDAQ: DELL) had a strong rally from early March to late April, gaining 27%, but after reaching new 2010 highs on April 23, share prices have suffered substantial declines, losing 14.3% in only three weeks.

    During the mini-crash two weeks ago, Dell traded below support, but quickly rebounded and because of the circumstances, we did not see it as a violation of support.

    But on Tuesday, May 18, Dell again broke below, and closed below, its 50% retracement of the strong March to April rally. This forecasts lower lows ahead.

    Dell has one short-term support level left at $14.57, the 61.8% retracement of the March to April rally. This level was also broken intra-day in the mini-crash. If Dell can hold and rally at or above this level we could see gains or at least a period of consolidation, but if Dell breaks below the $14.57 level, it could end up testing the March lows in coming months.

    Those March lows are near the $13.00 level.

    Disclosure: The ( Stock Timing Strategy holds a position in Dell Inc.
    May 18 5:01 PM | Link | Comment!
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