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Frank started market timing in 1982 when the Federal Reserve cut interest rates and sparked the 1980’s bull rally. Realizing that this rally could have been forecasted, he began to search for indicators which had similar forecasting ability. Within a year, his first newsletter was launched,... More
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  • Market Timing, Do You Have What It Takes?

    Market timing works, and it works well for people who actually practice it as a discipline. In theory, every investor is capable of following the disciplines of timing. But not everybody has the right emotional makeup to do timing right. In real life, many people who try are ultimately unsuccessful.

    Importantly; at Fibtimer we do not try to "predict" the future. We do not try to trade reversals. We do not trade according to the alignment of the stars or any hocus pocus strategies. Fibtimer strategies trade trends! All of our work is based on identifying and trading trends. Long term trends (months to years) for our conservative strategies and shorter term trends (weeks to months) for our aggressive strategies.

    Timing puts investors on the front lines, face to face with the realities of the market, every business day. To be a successful timer, you have to buy and sell without flinching even when you don't feel like it. You have to follow your discipline even when you think the signal may be in error.

    You've got to do it even when you don't understand why your timing system is telling you to act.

    Perseverance

    Timing can get you in real trouble if you try it for awhile, become discouraged and then abandon your plan in favor of something you find more palatable.

    If you let your feelings guide you, you're likely to bail out of a timing strategy at the very worst time, when your investments are down.

    Can you adopt a strategy and stick to it for the long term? Can you follow the system regardless of how you feel about it and regardless of what's going on around you? Can you resist the temptations to act on impulse? Can you ignore the many "hot tips" you may come upon every week?

    Accepting Imperfection

    Imperfection is one of the media's biggest criticisms of timing. When you are underperforming and experiencing losing trades, that media criticism may shake your confidence.

    The media often says market timing requires you to be right twice: when you buy and when you sell, in contrast to a buy-and-hold approach in which you have to be right only once: when you buy.

    Most of the time, you can count on your system to get you into or out of the market "too soon" or "too late" to catch the tops and bottoms.

    If getting out at the very top and getting back in at the very bottom are your goals, timing is guaranteed to let you down. And if that failure will drive you nuts, think twice before embarking on a timing strategy, because what you will perceive as timing mistakes will erode or destroy your willingness to follow the discipline.

    Your goal should not be to achieve perfection. It should be to put the probabilities on your side. And a good timing strategy will do that.

    Ignoring The Media

    Almost unanimously, the press seems to have a blind spot when it comes to timing.

    They say timers are misguided, and this view is widely echoed by the mutual fund and brokerage industries.

    Can you pull out of the market when everybody else is either getting in or already making money? Can you get back in when your friends, colleagues, the media and possibly your own gut are telling you it's a dumb idea?

    Making Decisions

    Some people stew and fret and delay making decisions, even when they are convinced they should do something. They are unlikely to be successful timers.

    Successful timing requires quick action to move into and out of markets. One of the most obvious truths about timing (and one of the most widely overlooked) is that by the time your friends, your colleagues, your gut and the experts all agree on what you should do, it's already far too late for you to extract the maximum opportunity from it.

    Conclusion

    Market timing works, and those who are able to stick to long term successful market timing strategies reduce their risks in the markets, and enhance their returns. Our trading history, tracked by independent auditors at Timertrac.com and Hulbert Financial Digest, are proof that our strategies work over time.

    We know this as a fact after more than 20 years timing the markets. Although there are times when even the very best timing strategies are not profitable, we must remember that timing is not about winning on every trade.

    Timing is about winning over the long haul. About reducing risk and protecting capital during dangerous market conditions. About winning over the years.

    Nov 21 3:23 PM | Link | Comment!
  • The Forever Strategy

    As trend timers, we would not have developed our timing strategies without first researching not only the strategies, but the history of the financial markets.

    What we found, was that market trends are much more pervasive than most would think. In fact, trends could have been traded just as profitably 200 years ago, as they are today.

    Looking back at price data for 100 and 200 years, the very same trending markets existed. They endured short times of sideways (non-trending) movement just as they do today, and long periods of strong advancing and declining trends. Yesterday, just as today, trading trends would be profitable.

    There are several important guidelines to successful trend timing that become easily apparent. Again, whether used 200 years ago or today, they are just as important. And they will be just as important tomorrow, ten years from now, or any time in the future, as long as free markets are traded.

    Highly Disciplined Trading Plans

    Successful trend timing strategies use highly disciplined trading plans.

    In the short term, the markets are run by the majority who are reacting to the emotions of fear and greed. It is "comforting" to be moving along with the crowd. That is why the majority do it. But it is NOT profitable.

    The "majority" do not profit.

    But the consistently profitable market timer maintains discipline, and that means not only deciding to follow a solid timing strategy, but also trading it through thick and thin.

    With a tested strategy you can trade without fear. You do not need a crystal ball. A good timing strategy works across a variety of market conditions. It may not win on any single trade, but its methods give those who follow it that all important trading "edge."

    Executing a trading plan using unemotional buy and sell signals, designed to capture the majority move of all major trends whether up or down, removes destructive emotions from the equation.

    A market timer may feel the pressure to disobey the plan. He may be swayed by advice from friends, current events, or the extremely powerful emotions of fear and/or greed. But by sticking to a trading plan that NEVER misses a major trend, you will profit over time.

    If a trend fails, the trading plan will quickly reverse. If the trend becomes a long term highly profitable one, the plan keeps you fully invested and does not allow you to exit in times of emotional corrections when the crowd is exiting in droves.

    Ignoring Short Term Volatility

    Successful trend timing strategies ignore short term volatility in the attempt to realize superior profits during major trending markets.

    Trends can last months, and even years. During those profitable trends there will be corrections to the trend. Exiting at every correction leaves a trend timer on the outside looking in. Reacting to counter trend corrections usually results in losses. This is why FibTimer stands steady during such corrections.

    The is an almost overwhelming desire to "act" in the face of an adverse market move.

    Often it is labelled "avoiding volatility" with the assumption being that volatility is bad.

    But avoiding volatility often inhibits the ability to stay with the current long term trend. The desire to have close stops, and to preserve "open trade" profits has enormous costs over time.

    Long term timing strategies do not avoid volatility. They patiently sit though it. This reduces the chances of being forced out of a position in the middle of a long term move.

    Finally, a successful trend timing strategy, never allows losses to accumulate. Trend timers are protected from large losses by their strategy which never allows a failed trend to hurt capital. Trendless and/or volatile markets are inevitable. But a good timing strategy protects capital.

    You cannot avoid the occasional failed trend and you cannot avoid the occasional trendless market. But a good timing strategy will not allow losses to accumulate. Capital is kept intact so when the next profitable trend begins, we are ready to jump on board and ride it to the end.

    Conclusion

    At Fibtimer we offer weekly analysis to prepare subscribers for what is "likely" to come. Better to be prepared than to be hit with surprises.

    But we never presuppose that we are so smart we can tell, unerringly, what the markets will do next.

    Trend timers do not try to anticipate reversals or breakouts. They respond to them.

    Trend timers are not prognosticators. We just identify and follow trends.

    Trend timers believe the markets are smarter than any of us. We make it our business not to try to figure out why the markets are going up or down, or even where they are going to stop.

    Successful trend timers identify trends, and patiently allow them to play out.

    We will now make a prediction, even though we say predictions are a fools game. This is a prediction (we predict) that will stand the test of time.

    Prediction: Stocks will never go up forever because trends always reverse themselves. Stocks will never go down forever because trends eventually reverse themselves. At Fibtimer, we will "always" be on board all major and profitable trends. During sideways non-trending markets, we may not profit, but we will always preserve capital. And lastly, over any fair time frame (2-3 years) Fibtimer will always profit and successfully "beat" the markets.

    Nov 14 1:16 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Successful Market Timing With FibTimer

    FibTimer's success depends on "your" success. We want you to be successful. To achieve this requires not only a successful market timing strategy, which we provide, but subscribers must also follow that strategy correctly.

    One of the most difficult tasks for us at FibTimer, is trying to make sure that subscribers understand what is required to achieve success in market timing.

    We can publish the reports, but if the strategies are not followed correctly, the odds of being profitable diminish.

    Subscribers should use the strategy that suits them best. We have aggressive, active, as well as conservative timing strategies. Make sure you know what sort of timing strategy you are emotionally able to handle.

    A novice market timer, who jumps right into our aggressive Pro Timer strategy, might have a difficult time when facing several trades in a fast market. If you are conservative, use a conservative strategy.

    Another concern is for new subscribers who trade immediately. Entering a new position before a new bullish or bearish signal has been issued. We understand the urge to jump in and get started, but in reality, mid-signal entries add risk.

    Our strategies are designed to manage risk in volatile, or sideways markets, and to correctly place us in bullish or bearish trends when they occur. In the aggressive strategies, small losses are a normal part of trading. The aggressive strategies are the most profitable over time, but if you exit the strategy after a small loss, you will not be profitable when the strategies catch a strong trend.

    It is amazing how many subscribers will cancel after a small loss or a period of months with no gains. Then after we have a 20% or 40% gain six months or a year later, they all come back. But they return when they see the profits and that means it was "after" the gains were made. You have to stay to make the profits we show in our trade history pages.

    Finally, there are those subscribers who wait to see if a signal is correct before following it. This again diminishes the ability of our risk management, built into the strategies, to work correctly. The prices we enter at, can be quite different than those realized with an entry made two or three days later.

    Know Yourself

    Before using any of our timing strategies, be sure you know yourself. What type of investor, or trader, are you?

    a. Are you looking for a timing strategy that will keep you in bull markets, and protect you from bear markets, with few timing decisions that have to be faced? Are you close to retirement and just do not want to risk having a bear market, such as we had in 2000-2002 and again in 2008-2009, decimate your savings by 50-80%?

    If this is you, use the Conservative S&P Timer, which trades infrequently, and only goes to cash to avoid potential long term declines.

    b. Are you an active trader, but uncomfortable with taking bearish positions (betting the market will go down)? Are you unable to trade bear mutual funds because they are not available to you? Many subscribers cannot make bearish trades. If you are one of them, but want to market time with those funds available to you, use one or several of the active strategies. The Sector Fund Timer being one of the most popular.

    If you have access to sector funds, which are available in several fund families (we use Rydex Funds), our Sector Fund Timer is one of the best timing strategies we have ever developed. It is meant to be traded with at least 6-8 positions (diversification) and is less volatile than you might think. If a sector has a large sell off, it only affects 1/8th of the portfolio. If a sector gets whipsawed, again only 1/8th is affected.

    Which of the 16 covered sectors funds are best? Usually the first funds that turn bullish outperform the rest. Trading the first six to eight is a good approach.

    Sector funds, when they trend, often move faster and farther then the market in general, and usually further than anyone expects. The potential of the Sector Timer for future profits is huge. We consider this an "Active" timing strategy, but not an aggressive one. Sectors move to cash during declines, adding stability to the strategy.

    c. The Gold Timer, Bond Timer and Small Cap Timer strategies are all "Aggressive". They are single industry timers and should only be used for a "portion" of your investment capital. They should NOT be used for all your trading capital.

    Gold bugs take note...it is not a good idea to trade only gold funds. They can move against you 10% in a single day.

    Yes, a great deal of money can be made in the Gold Fund Timer when it trends, and over time, gold funds are big winners for market timers. But, if you put all your eggs in one basket, a sharp swing in the wrong direction may scare you out of the strategy. The next move will probably be the one with the huge profits, but you will not be there.

    d. The ETF and Stock Timer strategies are only for traders who understand "Aggressive" trading strategies. If you are such a trader, read the trading instructions on each report. If you are not, do not use these strategies. They trade frequently and must be actively followed.

    Correctly Using Our Timing Strategies

    Below we will detail a few of the most important rules for successfully trading our timing strategies. We have been market timing for many years and know that following the strategies correctly is critical to success.

    If you, as a new subscriber, follow the rules and give the strategies "proper time" to work, you will not only be profitable, but you will do something few others achieve. You will "beat" the markets.

    a. Commit to a realistic time frame. We suggest one to two years. While your first buy or sell signal may be profitable, it also may "not" be. Often, in a volatile market, the aggressive strategies will have small losses. That is a small price to pay for being certain to catch the big (profitable) trend when it finally materializes.

    b. Try to avoid mid-signal entries. Jumping the gun and entering in the middle of a trade can lessen the effectiveness of the risk management that is built into our strategies. One exception of course is the Conservative S&P Timer. Directions for entering this mid-trade are at the bottom of the Conservative S&P Timer report page.

    c. Take all trades. You cannot pick and chose according to how you feel the market will do. That adds emotion to an unemotional trading strategy. Almost without doubt, you will lose money. You must take ALL the trades so that when the big trade occurs, the one that makes most of that year's profits, you are on board.

    Oct 31 2:11 PM | Link | Comment!
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