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Frank started market timing in 1982 when the Federal Reserve cut interest rates and sparked the 1980’s bull rally. Realizing that this rally could have been forecasted, he began to search for indicators which had similar forecasting ability. Within a year, his first newsletter was launched,... More
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  • New Buy Signal for Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX)

    April 23, 2010

    Both the Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX)and its tracking ETF the Powershares QQQ Trust (NASDAQ: QQQQ) reversed from early day losses and closed at new 2010 highs.

    When a stock, index or ETF is in an uptrend, but opens at a level lower than the preceding day, reverses and closes at a new high, it is called an outside bullish trend continuation day.

    This is what occurred for the NDX, QQQQ as well as the small cap indexes on Thursday, April 22. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) came close but did not close at the new high.

    Typically such bullish trading days result in higher highs in coming days and weeks. Considering the after-hours selling on Thursday after Amazon.com posted earning results that beat estimates but apparently did not beat investor’s hopes, Friday may be an exception.

    But nevertheless this is a bullish indicator when the market declines but sellers are beaten back by buyers. Look for higher highs in coming weeks.

    Our target for the NDX remains at 2055 and for the QQQQ at $50.61, the June 5, 2008 bear market rally highs. 



    Disclosure: The Fibtimer.com (www.fibtimer.com) ETF Timing Strategy has a position in the Powershares QQQ Trust.
    Apr 22 6:41 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Starbucks Corp (NASDAQ: SBUX) Earnings Boosts Shares

    April 22, 2010

    Shares of Starbucks Corp (NASDAQ: SBUX) rose on Wednesday, April 21 and then surged in after-hours trading after a better than expected earnings report was released.

    Starbucks posted much stronger earnings for its fiscal second quarter and raised its fiscal 2010 profit outlook. Net income was $217.3 million, or 28 cents a share, compared to net income of $25 million, or 3 cents a share, in the year-earlier quarter. This was the second quarter in a row with positive same store growth.

    Starbucks remained below its closing higher of $25.56 reached on March 17. This high should be surpassed in coming days.

    The target for this advance remains at $27.42, the 61.8% retracement for the entire bear market decline. A close above this level would be extremely bullish.



    Disclosure: The Fibtimer.com (www.fibtimer.com) Stock Timing Strategy holds a position in Starbucks.
    Apr 21 5:02 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Huge Volatility for Shares of Citicorp Inc (NYSE: C)

    April 21, 2010

    Shares of Citicorp Inc (NYSE: C) have moved up and down in a 10% trading range over the past week. Is a breakout ahead? Or is the opposite?

    With huge moves on huge daily volume of late, one question must first be asked about shares of Citicorp. Is it even safe to trade shares in this company?

    Two years ago Citicorp was trading in excess of $55.00 a share. From December 2009 to February 2010 Citicorp was trading around $3.00 a share.

    A wise trader once told me never to buy a stock that costs less than a pizza. There is always a reason!

    Citicorp has tacked on 67% since those February lows. You might say that the potential gains are worth the risk. We do not feel that way. There are far too many good trades out there, in companies that are not going to shed 10% in a day, or even more, on a bad news event.

    Citicorp closed Tuesday, April 20 at $4.97 a share. The September 2008 bear market rally highs are at about $5.50 a share, some 10% higher. This will be a strong resistance level for Citicorp to overcome.

    If Citicorp can make a solid close above $5.50 a share, extremely high risk traders could make a case for a bullish trade, assuming they use very tight risk management rules to get them out if the trade falls apart.

    Otherwise, we would stay far away from shares of Citicorp and find stocks that have good setup patterns and odds that favor their completing those patterns.

    Kollar is editor and chief analyst at FibTimer.com (http://www.fibtimer.com) which offers market timing strategies for S&P and Nasdaq index fund traders, as well as bond, gold, small cap, sector, ETF and stock trading strategies.



    Disclosure: no positions
    Apr 20 4:28 PM | Link | Comment!
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