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Frank started market timing in 1982 when the Federal Reserve cut interest rates and sparked the 1980’s bull rally. Realizing that this rally could have been forecasted, he began to search for indicators which had similar forecasting ability. Within a year, his first newsletter was launched,... More
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  • S&P 500 Index Nears Critical Point

    S&P 500 Index,SPX,tracking ETF,S&P Deposit Receipts,SPY,market timingApril 16, 2010

    Both the S&P 500 Index (SPX) and it’s tracking ETF the S&P Deposit Receipts (NYSE: SPY) have continued to rally despite numerous forecasts, by numerous experts, to the contrary.

    For some time we have posted targets for this advance; for the SPX at 1226, for the SPY it is at $122.98. This is the Fib. 61.8% retracement of the entire bear market decline and many analysts, including us, will be watching this level as potential formidable resistance to the advance.

    There have been other resistance levels previously met and surpassed. That may be the case for SPX 1226 as well. But traders should keep in mind that we are overbought, overdue for some profit-taking, and a bearish reversal at or near SPX 1226 would probably lead to just that.

    What happens if we close above SPX 1226 and SPY $122.98?

    The advance will than have new higher targets. For the SPX it will be the round number of 1300, which also stopped the bear market rally in August 2008. For the SPY it is $130.00.

    These are round numbers and traders tend to notice round numbers. Plus, these have not been topped for more than twenty months. Traders, who bought then and held, have been in the red for over one and one-half years, many of them telling themselves if they can break even they are going to sell. It will be an interesting number when reached.



    Disclosure: The Fibtimer.com (www.fibtimer.com) ETF Timing Strategy has a position in the S&P 500 SPDRs.
    Tags: SPY, SPY
    Apr 15 4:38 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Higher Highs for Fedex Corp (NYSE: FDX)

    April 15, 2010

    Shares of Fedex Corp (NYSE: FDX) climbed 3.3% during Wednesday’s stock market rally, outperforming the major index’s by some 2%. In after hours trading shares continued to gain.

    Few noticed but last week shares of Fedex broke above its September 2008 bear market rally high at $92.00 a share. This set the stage for Wednesday’s advance and also forecasts more gains in coming weeks.

    Fedex should reach its May 2008 bear market rally high of $98.65 in coming days. That will be another important test and of course the round number of 100 is just above it.

    If Fedex can close above $100 a share, look for this rally to test its all-time highs all the way up at $120.00 a share in coming months. This is 27.7% above Wednesday’s close.



    Disclosure: The Fibtimer.com (www.fibtimer.com) Stock Timing Strategy holds a position in Fedex Corp.
    Apr 14 5:31 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Intel Corp (NASDAQ: INTC) Scores Big

    April 14, 2010

    Shares of Intel Corp (NASDAQ: INTC) scored big after a very positive first-quarter profit was posted after hours on Tuesday, April 13. How much higher can they go?

    Intel reported a profit of $2.4 billion, or 43 cents a share, compared with a profit of $629 million or 11 cents a share for the year-earlier period. Revenue was $10.3 billion, up from $7.1 billion in the same quarter the previous year. Analysts had expected Intel to report earnings of 38 cents a share on revenue of $9.8 billion.

    The immediate targets for this advance are the 2008 bear market rally high at $24.75, an 8.7% gain if reached and then $25.29, a prior 2008 bear market rally high and an 11% gain.

    Both of these prior rally highs are attainable in coming weeks after this bullish earnings report.

    If they are surpassed, look to $28.00 a share, the 2007 highs and a 23% gain from current levels, as the next target.

    Kollar is editor and chief analyst at FibTimer.com (http://www.fibtimer.com) which offers market timing strategies for S&P and Nasdaq index fund traders, as well as bond, gold, small cap, sector, ETF and stock trading strategies.



    Disclosure: No Positio
    Apr 13 5:25 PM | Link | Comment!
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