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Frank started market timing in 1982 when the Federal Reserve cut interest rates and sparked the 1980’s bull rally. Realizing that this rally could have been forecasted, he began to search for indicators which had similar forecasting ability. Within a year, his first newsletter was launched,... More
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  • S&P SPDRs Break Out

    March 12, 2010

    Both the S&P 500 Index (SPX) and it’s tracking ETF the S&P Deposit Receipts (NYSE: SPY) continue to rally but Thursday, March 11 was the day they broke out to new closing highs.

    Breakouts must be seen as bullish, especially coming after a 10% decline in January to early February. So where to next?

    When a resistance level is surpassed, or in this case a new high is made, we look to the next resistance level as the new target for the advance.

    For the SPX, the next resistance level is the 61.8% retracement for the entire bear market decline at SPX 1226. That is 6.6% above Thursday’s close at 1150.24.

    For the SPY, the next resistance level is the 61.8% retracement for the entire bear market decline at SPY 122.98. That is 6.5% above Thursday’s close at 115.45.

    Disclosure: The ( ETF Timing Strategy has a position in the S&P 500 SPDRs.
    Mar 11 4:41 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Break Out for Starbucks Corp (NASDAQ: SBUX)

    March 11, 2010

    Shares of Starbucks Corp (NASDAQ: SBUX) broke out to new 2009 - 2010 highs on heavy volume Wednesday, March 10.

    Starbucks gained 2.6% on Wednesday. There was no news that we were able to find, unless their refusal to bar people wearing guns in those states that allow people to carry them boosted the stock.

    Or maybe it was the negative rating by David Trainer from New Constructs Inc., a Nashville-based stock research firm, who said Starbucks is “the antithesis of McDonald's” and a "doomed business" that he would not own.

    Regardless, Starbucks has broken out above $24 level that held it in check since mid-December 2009. That level was also the 50% retracement for Starbuck’s entire bear market decline.

    The breakout, to $24.23 a share, points to higher highs and a likely move to the next resistance level up at $27.41 a share. This is the 61.8% retracement level. It is also an 18% gain from Wednesday’s close.

    Disclosure: The ( Stock Timing Strategy holds a position in Starbucks.
    Mar 10 4:51 PM | Link | 1 Comment
  • Ishares Lehman 20yr (NYSE: TLT) Nears Critical Support

    March 10, 2009

    Shares of the ETF Ishares Lehman 20 Year (NYSE: TLT) have traded sideways in 2010 after taking huge declines in 2009. TLT is again approaching a critical support level.

    That critical level is at about $88 a share. It has stopped all declines in the last two years.

    TLT seems to be constantly testing it of late with early January and late February declines that all reversed at the $88 level.

    TLT is again nearing $88, closing on Tuesday March 9 at $89.82 after two weeks of declines from the $92 level.

    The odds favor TLT reversing again from this support level and rallying, though of late the $92 level has stopped each attempt at moving higher so there is not much upside to be expected.

    Importantly, a decisive close below support would be a huge break down for shares of TLT and should it occur, shares could drop into the mid to low $80s quickly.

    Disclosure: The ( ETF Timing Strategy holds a position in TLT.
    Mar 09 5:59 PM | Link | Comment!
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