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Frank started market timing in 1982 when the Federal Reserve cut interest rates and sparked the 1980’s bull rally. Realizing that this rally could have been forecasted, he began to search for indicators which had similar forecasting ability. Within a year, his first newsletter was launched,... More
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  • Shares of Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) May Have Lower Lows Ahead

    May 27, 2010

    Shares of Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) have lost ground since their all time high close at $270.83 was reached on April 26.

    With a 10% decline to date, has Apple corrected enough that we be looking for a resumption of the advance?

    Back in February we wrote a bearish analysis of Apple stock and had our head handed to us as the stock rallied. This is a company that has a loyal following and it is hard to anticipate declines. Those loyal supporters just keep buying.

    But here we go again. Our analysis is based solely on what we see in the chart with likely support and resistance levels being reached.

    That said; we see strong support for shares of Apple at $222 a share, some 9% lower. Should share prices reach this level and reverse, it will make a low risk bullish trade set up with a stop below $222.

    We would not be inclined to take a bullish trade at current levels.

    Disclosure: No Position
    May 26 4:57 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Dollar Tree Inc (NASDAQ: DLTR) At New All-Time Highs

    May 26, 2010

    Shares of Dollar Tree Inc (NASDAQ: DLTR), the largest single-price discount retailer in the U.S., are at all-time highs closing at $63.44 on Tuesday, May 25.

    Last week Dollar Tree announced that its fourth-quarter net income was $63.6 million, or 73 cents a share, up from $60.4 million, or 66 cents a share, in the year-ago period. Earnings were 92 cents a share. Sales rose to $1.35 billion, from $1.2 billion.

    The discount retailer expects adjusted 2010 earnings of $4.29 a share to $4.50 a share, ahead of the Wall Street target of $4.24 a share.

    But higher earnings aside, Dollar Tree is rising in a truly bad market environment. During severe declines such as we are currently in the midst of, good news is often ignored as investors and traders make emotional trades.

    But Dollar Tree continues to rise and is a potential bullish trade for investors willing to take on some risk.

    Dollar Tree’s 50-day moving average has held all attempts at selling and is currently at $59.35. That is also where the stock’s lows were reached in mid-May selling. It makes for a decent buy-stop level.

    Kollar is editor and chief analyst at ( which offers market timing strategies for S&P and Nasdaq index fund traders, as well as bond, gold, small cap, sector, ETF and stock trading strategies.

    Disclosure: No positions
    May 25 5:24 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Powershares QQQ Trust (NASDAQ: QQQQ) Testing Critical Support

    May 25, 2010

    Shares of the ETF Powershares QQQ Trust (NASDAQ: QQQQ) have reversed an early advance on Monday, May 24 and again closed lower as the correction continues to hammer stocks.

    In last Thursday’s selloff, the Q’s closed just below a critical support level. This was the 61.8% retracement of the entire February to April advance, at $44.57.

    This was not a decisive break of support as the Q’s closed at $44.35, only 22 cents lower. We look for a decisive close to consider a support level as broken. At least one percent lower or more.

    Friday’s rally raised the Q’s comfortably above this support level. But in trading on Monday, May 24, the Q’s, which fought most of the day to stay positive, gave up the gains and again closed lower, this time at $44.66 a share.

    The $44.57 support level, only 9 cents below, is again in danger of being broken.

    Should the Q’s break this support, they could eventually test their February correction lows down at $42.12. This is 5.7% lower than Monday’s close.

    Disclosure: The ( ETF Timing Strategy holds a position in the Powershares QQQ Trust.
    May 24 5:01 PM | Link | Comment!
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