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Frank started market timing in 1982 when the Federal Reserve cut interest rates and sparked the 1980’s bull rally. Realizing that this rally could have been forecasted, he began to search for indicators which had similar forecasting ability. Within a year, his first newsletter was launched,... More
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  • Streettracks Gold (NYSE: GLD) Stalls at Resistance

    March 9, 2010

    Shares of Streettracks Gold (NYSE: GLD) pulled back on Monday, March 9 after GLD reached strong resistance last week and failed to punch through.

    Back on January 11, GLD closed at $112.85, the high point in a two week rally. Shares reversed and declined almost 10% in the following three weeks.

    GLD is back at this same level. $112.42 is the 50% retracement for the entire December to February decline in gold shares. Back in early January, the same level was the 50% retracement for the December decline.

    Obviously GLD has trouble pushing above the 50% retracement level and after reaching it last week, GLD has again reversed and moved lower.

    In coming days, a decisive close above $112.42 would point to a run for the prior $120 highs. A close below $108.30 would likely result in a test of the February 5 lows at $102 a share.

    Kollar is editor and chief analyst at FibTimer.com (http://www.fibtimer.com) which offers market timing strategies for S&P and Nasdaq index fund traders, as well as bond, gold, small cap, sector, ETF and stock trading strategies.



    Disclosure: no positions
    Mar 08 6:06 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Pulling The Trigger

    ...the BUY or SELL signal has been issued. All you need to do is call your fund company or broker, or log into your online trading account and click on the "Trade" button.

    But right at that moment, all the doubt and second-guessing comes to a head, and the buy or sell signal is never executed.

    Sound familiar? It's probably the most common heartache faced by market timers and all market traders, and is only compounded when it turns out that it would have been a profitable trade.

    Decisions, Decisions, Decisions


    Do any of these sentences sound familiar? Have you said these same words?

    1.  The timing signal says one thing, but this other indicator I have says another.

    2.  There is absolutely no reason the market should move in that direction. Everyone knows it... look at the current market sentiment!

    3.  What if the signal is wrong? What are the consequences?

    Suddenly you become very good at second guessing. You can easily find a few dozen reasons not to execute the signal after all. You even feel good about "not" taking the trade... at least for awhile.

    Perfection Does Not Exist

    Uncertainty is a powerful emotion that can weaken the resolve of even the best of market timers. Some things you need to remember are:

    1.  At no point in time will all indicators be in agreement. That's just the nature of technical analysis. You are following a timing strategy that makes money over time. It is not always right, but it is profitable and it outperforms the market. That is what you need to focus on. Perfection does not exist in market timing or trading.

    2.  The obvious or logical buy or sell signal is not always the profitable trade. Sometimes the market is easy to read, such as during a long trending bull market, but sometimes its true nature is completely hidden.
     

    3.  All actions in the market happen for a reason. We may not always understand the cause, but we really do not need to! All we need to do is execute the trades and the profits will follow.

    4.  There is NO tested and proven timing system that is perfectly accurate. As for the consequences of being wrong, that's why you are using the strategy in the first place. FibTimer timing strategies are designed to NEVER allow losses to accumulate.

    Then Again, What If The Signal Is Right?

    The next time you feel uncertainty sapping at your will power, read the below sentences. Print them out and tape them to your computer monitor if it will help....

    1.  The timing signal says one thing, but this other indicator I have says another...  However, the market timing strategy has a proven success rate over time, and not all indicators will be accurate at all times. So, I will execute this buy or sell signal based on the historical success rate of the timing strategy.

    2.  There is absolutely no reason the market should move in that direction...  However, there was no real reason that the stock market should have made 50% gains in 2009, and yet it happened. I have to trade what the market is doing rather than what I think it should be doing, even if the reason is not clear.

    3.  What if the signal is wrong? What are the consequences?...  Then again, what if the signal is right? What are the results if this trade is successful. Remember that no one knows ahead of time when the next trend will begin. If they did, the trend would already have started.

    Pulling the trigger may be the toughest thing to do, but it's also crucial to successful market timing. It's better to take action, than it is to sit back and let the market pass you by. The trade you do not take, will likely be the trade that makes most of the profits for the entire year.
     



    Disclosure: No positions
    Mar 05 3:00 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Test of the Stock Market Highs Ahead

    March 5, 2010

    Both the S&P 500 Index (SPX) and it’s tracking ETF the S&P Deposit Receipts (NYSE: SPY) rallied above important resistance levels this week.

    Last week we wrote; “Thursday’s huge intra-day loss, that reversed and closed almost unchanged for the day, points to more strength to the upside ahead. Any strength should push these indexes above the critical resistance levels. Thursday’s mid-day reversal to the upside was on a day when bad news dominated the markets. That is bullish.”

    On Monday the SPX closed above 1109.98 the 61.8% retracement of the January to February declines and SPY closed above 111.10 the 61.8% retracement of the January to February declines.

    Typically when the 61.8% retracement level is surpassed, the index, ETF or stock, continues higher to test the prior high. In this case that is the rally highs achieved in early January.

    The targets for this advance are; 1115.06 the closing high for SPX and $1115.06 the closing high for SPY.



    Disclosure: The Fibtimer.com (www.fibtimer.com) ETF Timing Strategy has a position in the S&P 500 SPDRS
    Mar 04 5:39 PM | Link | Comment!
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