If you have heard of mark to market, you are losing money as the stock declines.
If you buy $30 of Dow stock, collect divy's, and then the stock goes down to $7 (check to see when the last time that occured), will you have the stomach and hold on for better days? It has worked as Dow recovered from it's fall to $7.
But, how did that work for Washington Mutual - divy was paying 10% for a short period of time but the equity was wiped out. In this case, unless you got 10 years of dividends, you did not replace your money and besides you lose on the time value of money.
I wish you the best holding Dow. Just stay diversified.
First, your table has 2012 projections - my calendar says 2012 is closed out. Your operating income projections for Dow will not be true. You have it smooth sailing over 5 years from 4600 to 5800. The last big demand swoon happened (during GFC) and Dow's diversification did not help that much as it got hit hard - although it was hard to tell as management bungled some deals around that time and that may have been a dominant factor. I expect at least one big demand drop during the 5-year window you address and I would not be surprised for Dow's operating income to get cut in 1/2 or more. You already mentioned margin dropped in half in one year's time (2012 vs. 2011) and while there has been economic malaise, there has not been an outright recession call (economists are late to call these anyway).
I think you are right to sell - I think the bigger caveat is to stay away. Dividend investors take note - they've cut their dividend before, they may have to do it again. Even if they don't, a 4% yield can be wiped out on the equity alone as Dow has decreased by almost 10% in last month.
Tremendous Upside Potential On A THQ Bet [View article]
JR was brought in to fix things and since he has brought delay after delay to title releases - he even said in the most recent CC that he knew in May that these upcoming titles would not be released on schedule but they have taken until this point to announce. THQ needs a friened somewhere in the capital markets but more important than that, they need several hits.
How To Profit From QE3, Part 1: Dow Chemical [View article]
Do you do any analysis or always believe the future of this company will be bright no matter what decisions it makes?
From Reuters: "as well as a write-down of Dow-Kokam LLC, Dow's lithium ion battery joint venture with TK Advanced Battery LLC.
Dow Kokam was formed in 2009, the same year it won a $161 million grant as part of a $2.4 billion Obama administration program designed to build up the advanced battery industry in the United States, add green jobs and put one million plug-in hybrid and electric vehicles on American roads by 2015.
The joint venture, which received the third-largest grant under the program, said it would use the funding from the U.S. Department of Energy to build an 800,000 square foot lithium-ion battery plant in Midland, Michigan, that was expected to employ up to 800 people, according to its 2009 news release."
It looks to me like Dow just vaporized half as much federal largesse as Solyndra. What did the US get in return - AL on the president's economic council of advisors?
2020: That’s the year U.S. oil production will overtake Saudi Arabia if current rates of production growth hold steady. U.S. output is on track to surge 7% this year, to 10.9M bbl/day - the biggest one-year gain in more than 60 years. The production turnaround is pushing down imports, too: Today, the U.S. imports just over 40% of its oil, the smallest share in 20 years. [View news story]
Elect Mitt Romney and he'll get Canada and Mexico to help us become NA energy independent in 8 years.
"By 2018, the U.S. will have no place for crude oil imports,'' says Citigroup's Ed Morse, continuing (previous) to discuss the implications of the remarkable surge in domestic oil production. The $90 floor on prices is set to become a ceiling, he says, and the U.S. will have the lowest-cost natural gas feedstock in the world for the next century. [View news story]
We had oil majors like Exxon buy XTO, a natural gas supplier, when nat gas prices were through the roof only to find a few years later that nat gas was in oversupply and the lowest prices in decades. Now "Ed, Edd, and Eddy" from Citigroup would like us to believe he has a prediction for the next century.
The Cash Conversion Cycle Can Help You Pick Winners And Losers [View article]
Thanks for a great article. It would seem to me the component part that is most important is the DIO - this is a tell - If inventory too high, they sellers are forced to liquidate merchandise driving profits next to nil. It also seems that Crox and DECk whom have seasonal businesses, have to live with a higher CCC and are susceptible to more volatility. What is the cause for the higher CCC for DECK in 2011/12? If they fix that this season, it could be a good one for the stock.
Kellogg's (K +0.6%) recalls certain boxes of Frosted Mini-Wheats Bite Size Original and Mini-Wheats Unfrosted Bit Size cereal due to potential contamination from metal fragments. Yesterday, the company affirmed its full-year 2012 guidance which seemed to take into account estimated costs tied to the recall. [View news story]
I had been anemic but my recent mini-wheat diet had cured that - now I know why.
Deckers Outdoor - Time To 'Deck' And Cover [View article]
You mention not commenting on small sample sizes when looking at Uggs fashion trendiness. Poser is but one analyst whom has done channel checks - how many data points does he have? If one looks at google trends for search volume in last 12 months, it is higher right now, YoY.
The longer term data puts current data in perspective where 2010-2011 winter was awesome for Uggs and 2012 brought some reduction in interest and thus the weak share price now. However, time will tell but I don't think it is like CROCS which has become pretty irrelevant which fell off and did not recover at all. Time will tell for Uggs.
Hewlett-Packard: What About The Company's R&D Tradition? [View article]
Talk is cheap. It's good to invest in R&D. However, it's more important to get something out of R&D and "productized". Easy to recognize, harder to implement. Additionally, this is like a relay race and HP participation has been with many slow runners handing off a baton given all their CEO changes - I'm not sure the additional runners they have are their fastest.
Productized is not new - Oracle used it long ago (2007).
Target (TGT) says that beginning with its 2013 fiscal year that it will no longer report monthly sales, joining Wal-Mart and other major names in ending the practice. Reuters editor Brad Dorfman has the most sarcastic take on the development: "One step closer to my dream, when our entire monthly view of retail will be set by WTSLA and SSI." [View news story]
"One step closer to my dream, when our entire monthly view of retail will be set by WTSLA and SSI."
Sysco Corporation (SYY) says that Wayne Shurts has SYY, Mr. Shurts was an executive VP and CIO at Supervalu (SVU), the grocery and supply-chain company.">joined the company in the newly created role of Chief Technology Officer. Prior to joining SYY, Mr. Shurts was an executive VP and CIO at Supervalu (SVU), the grocery and supply-chain company. [View news story]
"Sysco Corporation (SYY) says that Wayne Shurts has SYY"
Quite unfortunate that he has some disease whose acronym is the same as the stock ticker symbol. I wish him well.
Dow Chemical - Sell It [View article]
Dow Chemical - Sell It [View article]
If you buy $30 of Dow stock, collect divy's, and then the stock goes down to $7 (check to see when the last time that occured), will you have the stomach and hold on for better days? It has worked as Dow recovered from it's fall to $7.
But, how did that work for Washington Mutual - divy was paying 10% for a short period of time but the equity was wiped out. In this case, unless you got 10 years of dividends, you did not replace your money and besides you lose on the time value of money.
I wish you the best holding Dow. Just stay diversified.
Dow Chemical - Sell It [View article]
I think you are right to sell - I think the bigger caveat is to stay away. Dividend investors take note - they've cut their dividend before, they may have to do it again. Even if they don't, a 4% yield can be wiped out on the equity alone as Dow has decreased by almost 10% in last month.
Tremendous Upside Potential On A THQ Bet [View article]
How To Profit From QE3, Part 1: Dow Chemical [View article]
From Reuters: "as well as a write-down of Dow-Kokam LLC, Dow's lithium ion battery joint venture with TK Advanced Battery LLC.
Dow Kokam was formed in 2009, the same year it won a $161 million grant as part of a $2.4 billion Obama administration program designed to build up the advanced battery industry in the United States, add green jobs and put one million plug-in hybrid and electric vehicles on American roads by 2015.
The joint venture, which received the third-largest grant under the program, said it would use the funding from the U.S. Department of Energy to build an 800,000 square foot lithium-ion battery plant in Midland, Michigan, that was expected to employ up to 800 people, according to its 2009 news release."
It looks to me like Dow just vaporized half as much federal largesse as Solyndra. What did the US get in return - AL on the president's economic council of advisors?
2020: That’s the year U.S. oil production will overtake Saudi Arabia if current rates of production growth hold steady. U.S. output is on track to surge 7% this year, to 10.9M bbl/day - the biggest one-year gain in more than 60 years. The production turnaround is pushing down imports, too: Today, the U.S. imports just over 40% of its oil, the smallest share in 20 years. [View news story]
"By 2018, the U.S. will have no place for crude oil imports,'' says Citigroup's Ed Morse, continuing (previous) to discuss the implications of the remarkable surge in domestic oil production. The $90 floor on prices is set to become a ceiling, he says, and the U.S. will have the lowest-cost natural gas feedstock in the world for the next century. [View news story]
The Cash Conversion Cycle Can Help You Pick Winners And Losers [View article]
Kellogg's (K +0.6%) recalls certain boxes of Frosted Mini-Wheats Bite Size Original and Mini-Wheats Unfrosted Bit Size cereal due to potential contamination from metal fragments. Yesterday, the company affirmed its full-year 2012 guidance which seemed to take into account estimated costs tied to the recall. [View news story]
Deckers Outdoor - Time To 'Deck' And Cover [View article]
http://bit.ly/UPb1yF
The longer term data puts current data in perspective where 2010-2011 winter was awesome for Uggs and 2012 brought some reduction in interest and thus the weak share price now. However, time will tell but I don't think it is like CROCS which has become pretty irrelevant which fell off and did not recover at all. Time will tell for Uggs.
http://bit.ly/UD3dWt
Hewlett-Packard: What About The Company's R&D Tradition? [View article]
Productized is not new - Oracle used it long ago (2007).
http://bit.ly/PZ2GIY
But it does not get many searches and is highly sporadic.
http://bit.ly/SzPwUW
Perhaps Meg has talked to this guy:
http://bit.ly/PZ2GIZ
Target (TGT) says that beginning with its 2013 fiscal year that it will no longer report monthly sales, joining Wal-Mart and other major names in ending the practice. Reuters editor Brad Dorfman has the most sarcastic take on the development: "One step closer to my dream, when our entire monthly view of retail will be set by WTSLA and SSI." [View news story]
Is that a wet dream?
Sysco Corporation (SYY) says that Wayne Shurts has SYY, Mr. Shurts was an executive VP and CIO at Supervalu (SVU), the grocery and supply-chain company.">joined the company in the newly created role of Chief Technology Officer. Prior to joining SYY, Mr. Shurts was an executive VP and CIO at Supervalu (SVU), the grocery and supply-chain company. [View news story]
Quite unfortunate that he has some disease whose acronym is the same as the stock ticker symbol. I wish him well.
Questcor: What's Really Changed? [View article]
Questcor: What's Really Changed? [View article]
http://bit.ly/U86Lj6