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Dr. Poly

Dr. Poly
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  • At the bottom of J.C. Penney's (JCP) Q1 blowup could be something as simple as the concept that U.S. consumers like their deals, according to Stacey Widlitz. The Ron Johnson-led strategy of reclaiming pricing by cutting out promotions backfired as traffic at stores fell off dramatically. While new brands and a transformation "ahead of schedule" could still click, the burning question is do investors have the patience to wait for it? JCP -15.2% premarket. [View news story]
    If JCP's merchandise had the cachet of an Apple product, there may not be a need for discounting. I don't see folks clamoring for their clothing lines.
    May 16 09:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dow Looks To Corner The $2 Billion Dielectric Fluids Market [View article]
    The Solazyme graphic is misleading. It paints the picture as an all or none proposition and it is not. On longevity, if you read ABB guidance, their biodegradable product has same lifetime as mineral oil with 8-10oC higher hotspot temperatures within transformer.

    The additional benefits of the supposed solution from Solazyme will potentially improve on these items but will not make all other products completely irrelevant. Mineral oils are used today, vegetable oils are used today, and maybe, Solazyme-Dow Algal oils will be used tomorrow.

    A few hurdles remain but the dynamic duo is potentially up to the task, but the stock is performing poorly. Current analyst projections have company losing ~$1/sh this year and next and that will leave them with ~ $80MM net of debt. If losses start to taper in '14 and '15 they might make it to the finish line w/o a capital raise. As is often the case with these companies, they will have to do another equity raise diluting current holders.

    Keep in mind, these guys add some steps and process steps generally have associated costs. If you take seed, fractionate TG oil, convert to acceptable oil based transformer fluid. SZYM approach, take the starch, convert to sugars, feed to algae to get algae fat with TG oil, separate out TG oil, convert to acceptable oil based transformer fluid.

    In any case, nice article. I advise everyone to do their own DD on the grand projections here and make their own conclusion.
    May 15 07:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Updating My Buy Exide, Short Tesla Paired Trade [View article]
    It looks like the pair trade has completely reversed your earlier gains. I have a loss in your "hypothetical" pair trade of 7.82 on XIDE and nearly $10 on TSLA. I don't disagree with your position but as always, entry points are key. You have mentioned elsewhere that TSLA was a company on the verge of an ongoing concern indication from auditors. What's your thought on the news today that they are drawing down the last of the government loans and will begin to repay at year end?
    May 14 03:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gas Up Your Income Portfolio With This 5% Yielder [View article]
    This has gone from a peak of $50 pre financial crisis and to a low of $28 during financial crisis to currently trade at $70. Good dividend + growth in stock - what's not to love? If something is too good to be true, it might be. Dividend was $0.71 per quarter when stock was at $28 and now is $0.84 at $70. So, yield has moved from 10.1% to 4.8%. Invest now and dividend might pay for the normalization of the yield back to higher levels thru a reduced stock price.
    May 13 05:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • MEMC Electronics: Unloved, Cheap and Under Analysts' Price Targets [View article]
    Bret - I really do hope you sold.

    Today's news:

    2:08 PM There's more downside ahead for MEMC Electronic (WFR -24%) after its latest quarterly miss, Wunderlich says: "We have serious reservations about the future of MEMC given that there is still a tremendous oversupply of polysilicon worldwide, its vertically integrated solar business has no barriers to entry, and the solar gold rush is over as subsidies and stimulus run out."

    This stock is printing a $2.46 close.
    May 10 05:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dow Chemical (DOW -0.25%) shareholders reject a motion at the company's annual meeting to divide the roles of chairman and CEO on the eventual retirement of chief Andrew Liveris. Shareholders do approve Liveris' $19.3M compensation package for 2011.  [View news story]
    Dividend adj. price in 2004, the year Liveris was appointed, was $32.50/sh. Today, $32.16/sh. A job well done and worthy of $19.3M in compensation.

    From wiki: "During the Rohm and Haas acquisition, in December 2008, Liveris was quoted as saying "Dow is the only company in the Fortune 200 to have paid its regular quarterly cash dividend without reduction or interruption since 1912. That is 388 consecutive quarters. I have said it before, but I want to say it again, we will not break that streak. Not Dow, not on my watch".[4]. The following quarter Dow cut its dividend by 65%.[6] In a press release announcing the quarterly dividend (Feb 12, 2009) Dow’s Board of Directors stated its decision was based on a “a confluence of factors, including uncertainty in the credit markets, unprecedented lower demand for chemical products, the ongoing global recession and pending business issues.”[7]"

    Also from Wiki "The recovery plan has been accompanied by a sixfold recovery in the share price."

    If you were one of the few that bought at $6.33/sh low during financial crisis combined with Dow MGMT induced crisis lows, yeah, you got a 6 fold increase.

    I'm guessing this Dow Wiki entry is edited by IR for Dow and AL's agent
    May 10 12:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Technology Juggernaut Dividend Stocks To Buy And 1 To Avoid [View article]
    Buy CSCO if they get rid of Chambers. He is the only one laughing all the way to the bank with his well timed sales of options b4 "surprising" negative news - a paltry 1.7-2% divy hardly makes up for the volatility and lack of growth in this name.
    May 10 11:09 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should Berkshire Hathaway Be Trading At 1995 Prices? [View article]
    There are two possibilities for undervalued BRK shares - we are in a speculative bubble where folks are chasing growth - BRK shares were constantly under-performing prior to the QQQ collapse but as the collapse began, this was a great play - or, Warren has hit the law of big companies where he fails to be able to beat the S&P because the undervalued opportunities he purchases are not large enough to impact the company in a meaningful way. I have calculated it before, but the extent to which he has out performed the S&P (over a 10yr period) has been in decline as his company grows in size.

    If you are worried the market is too speculative, and have to own stocks, BRK is a defensive play. GLTA.
    May 8 01:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • This Developmental Pharma Has Potential To Be A Long-Term Multibagger [View article]
    The results due are only Phase 2 which means a Phase 3 trial is needed and money will need to be raised via partner or through secondary and then a trial can begin maybe late this year after reviewing data and agreeing to a protocol with FDA. I don't see you discuss the private sale of stock in 4Q of last year to Kissei Pharma - I see this as a potential vote of confidence but this money was needed to keep even this Phase 2 going which took longer than most expected.
    May 3 10:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • MediciNova To Release Asthma And COPD Trial Results In Q2 [View article]
    While they seem to indicate no specific need to "accelerate/rush" R&D pipeline, time is money - they do no have the cash to conduct/complete a Phase III trial and will need great results to get them a sufficient equity raise to go forward. I'm optimistic but the Phase 2 trial has taken longer and thus they continue to burn needed cash. Everything hinges on the Phase II data analysis.
    Apr 25 09:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lumia 900 Appears A Winner, For Now [View article]
    "As of this writing, Lumia 900 has received 29 reviews, with 28 of them five-star and 1 four-star. This is far better than any other smartphone available at Amazon."

    If they just ordered them did they receive them via replication and then they tried them out and gave them ratings or are Steven Ballmer and Stephen Elop signed in with 28 accounts giving favorable reviews?
    Apr 10 03:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ROIC Deserves More Playing Time: This REIT Can Score Points [View article]
    Today - Oct 12 $12.50 Calls trade at 0.35 and are $0.60 OOTM. Today - Oct 14 $12 warrants trade at $0.85 and are $0.10 OOTM.

    Does this make any sense? I think the huge warrant float makes them price erratic, but I am not sure if there is an additional worry about the warrants and managements plans to deal with them.
    Mar 7 06:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ROIC Deserves More Playing Time: This REIT Can Score Points [View article]
    I don't see ROIC purchasing another REIT. I think it would be highly unlikely for Tanz to find another REIT which meets his criteria. ROIC is investing in supermarket anchored shopping centers in areas with good demographics and properties that are selling at a discount to fair value which can be improved by better management - additional caveat is geographical territory focus which is currently West coast. If you have a list of ones (public or private), I'd like to know as I might try to evaluate those as potential buyout candidates.
    Mar 4 10:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More Sobering Views Of Housing Market [View article]
    Perhaps the underwater mortgages term needs to be revised to undersand mortgages?
    Mar 4 09:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ROIC Deserves More Playing Time: This REIT Can Score Points [View article]

    From the registration/proxy, "The Company in its sole discretion may lower the Warrant Price at any time prior to the Expiration Date; provided, however, that any change in the Warrant Price must apply equally to all of the Warrants, and provided, further, that any reduction in Warrant Price must remain in effect for at least (20) business days."

    So how do they lower strike on a portion of them when it says it must apply equally to all? I do note they can move them out in duration. Nowhere does it say, per my reading, that you can increase the strike and change the conversion factor. Increasing the strike would be devastating to the value but you could preserve it by increasing the conversion, yes, but what rights would the warrant holder have if the strike was raised to $20, and the company then got an offer at $18 - these options would be worthless. Right now with a strike of $12, and trading at $11.65, any buyout is likely going to move this well above strike price meaning the warrants will have some value - repricing them higher introduces all kinds of new risk for the owner.

    Appreciate your thoughts here - this is one of the best comments on the warrants I've seen - thanks for you contributions.
    Mar 2 10:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment