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  • GoPro up 2.6% on Baird upgrade [View news story]
    80% of spring breakers in hawaii are using what amounts to be a $20 ziplock bag to take pool and underwater video and photos ... even comes with lanyard to hang around the neck. Hard to see deep penetration of $GRPO products among the everyday family....I like $GPRO but it will always be a niche company.
    Mar 26, 2015. 04:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Starbucks Stock Split Could Create A Better Entry Point [View article]
    I agree. I've been a fan of CEO Howard Schultz, but when he continues to channel his energy and creep more into social political landscape, you have to wonder if he's getting sloppy about the core business where valuations don't support, just inline earnings. He's got every right to feel good, the stock has been great and he's done a fabulous job in its revival.

    However, just like Target learned in Canada, just because you have brand recognition, doesn't mean you can just show up and locals will buy. I worry the company is trying to barge its way into every aspect of your life, and as we've seen the last couple of days, that doesn't play well with the majority of folks.

    Howard certainly feels like he's jumping the shark a bit.
    Mar 20, 2015. 04:59 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nintendo: A Change In Strategy Is Needed [View article]
    No debt, plenty of cash. With a market that's mostly overvalued, there's a lot of good reasons to at least initiate a long position and hang out in $NTDOY....
    Mar 16, 2015. 12:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Buy: Time To Build Another Contrarian January Position? [View article]
    Best Buy should totally revamp its model and eliminate a majority of its stores. It really becomes an online model with showrooms. Take the ABT or Frye's model, people buy online and pickup locally, or browse and buy at a megastore. Could also offer a sameday delivery. It focuses on strong customer service and product knowledge. What so many stores fail at today: if your customer service stinks, there's really no differentiation among peers other than price.
    Jan 19, 2015. 01:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix is the new cable for millennials [View news story]
    its a millennial world ... and they are not going to be held hostage by cable companies... whether its NFLX, AMZN, GOOG or another company TBD, when investing you have to look a mile ahead... not just the next day or quarter...
    Jan 9, 2015. 07:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • West Coast port slowdown weighs on retailers and shippers [View news story]
    The supply chain has already been disrupted for 1Q. So we'll be hearing more and more as companies have better clarity on lost business and costs associated. It's not as easy as some realize. There's really only 3 options that parties are weighing: 1) wait it out - merchandise running up to a month late 2) air freight which is 3x-4x the cost 3) go around - which requires securing limited cargo space on rails, shipping it to/from south or east, and to/from ships, to go around and hope all that extra time, effort and money will beat option #1.

    There's going to be product shortages, delayed promotions, and some companies are going to lose shelf space and put alternative products that might not sell as well. This adds up to lost sales or higher costs...which we won't hear about until companies report later in January/Feb.

    Even after a labor agreement, it will take a couple of months to put everything back, right now all the logistics are stuck at one choke point, trucks, ships, containers...etc...
    Dec 19, 2014. 10:50 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nike's Stock Has Fallen Following Its Q2 Earnings Beat, Should You Buy On The Dip? [View article]
    The company didn't mention anything and it's probably still hard to quantify, but $LULU and others have been vocal about supply chain disruptions due to West Coast Ports labor issues... even if the company has been able to re-route some merchandise or air freight - I would think there will be a little bit of a negative earnings impact this coming next quarter. Retail partners all may be getting product slower $FL $DKS $FINL
    Dec 18, 2014. 10:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New strategy for McDonald's laid out at investor meeting [View news story]
    There's just too much competition serving much better, sometimes locally sourced burgers for about the same price... Burger and Fries at Five Guys $10 / Big Mac Meal Deal $8 ... .$MCD needs to reinvent itself... just start frying up the Costco Quarter Pound patties and it makes a huge upgrade.
    Dec 10, 2014. 03:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Select retail names rally as gas price bets [View news story]
    I'd short them all on strength, nobody wants to talk about the West Coast Ports labor issue, the slowdown has already disrupted the supply chain for 1Q15 ... containers getting stacked high, ships are anchored ... even if a deal is struck before end of month.. it's going to take a whole quarter to get everything back to where it belongs...
    Dec 10, 2014. 02:39 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Get Ready For Another Starbucks Jolt [View article]
    The company has been conservative with numbers, and very forward about the fall off in "boots" on the street due to online shopping.... it will be interesting to see the follow thru in the numbers ....any upside will depend a lot on how many people actually went out to the malls vs cyber shopping.... right now those numbers don't look so good...
    Dec 2, 2014. 11:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Starbucks Stock Fails To Woo Investors Despite Top Line Growth [View article]
    $SBUX is struggling with its operational leadership. SBUX is trying to expand into breakfast, lunch and dinner for greater wallet share as foot traffic erodes due to e-commerce. The cafes are quickly turning into mini-marts and store managers up to execs have not been doing a good job at understanding its customer habits. There has been two events in the lasts quarter that shows whoever in charge of the retail cafe is doing an awful job. Trying to eliminate the Lemon pound cake and the Eggnog latte. Given the backlash by customers when both were initially eliminated, this clearly shows that top execs are out of touch with its cafe stores, and its customers. If these were unprofitable business lines, then the company should have stuck with its decision, but I don't believe that's the case. The EggNog Latte has been around since's really the only coffee shop that sells this product and it screams CHRISTMAS.... a small business would take a look and see how to make it better, maybe as the country becomes more health conscience, a lower calorie alternative call it EggNog Light... yet someone at $SBUX decided just to yank the drink and think they could slap a siren on this new chestnut drink and America would switch.... companies that become out of touch with its customers can quickly collapse... just ask $SBUX they've already experienced that once this decade...
    Nov 11, 2014. 11:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In Demand: Massive Quantities Of Craft Beer  [View instapost]
    Just started looking at this space. AB rumored to pay $25 mln for Blue Point (NY) back in the spring for 60,000 Barrels per year... I see they just bought another smaller regional niche player in Oregon 40,000 barrels .. my guess similar valuation would be around $17-20 mln... This is up from the Goose Island sale was roughly $40 mln or $300 barrel ......what should one look at in valuation here... I see BREW has a market cap around $250 mln... but based on production and AB recent niche acquisitions... it would suggest something closer to a $400 mln.. value... is that totally off base?
    Nov 6, 2014. 12:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yahoo +6.1%; hopes grow for lower Alibaba tax rate [View news story]
    "HOPE" is going to take another 3 months.. in the meantime... the company wants to go shopping ... no reason to own until Jan 2015.
    Oct 22, 2014. 03:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Starbucks - Not Suited For The GARP Investor [View article]
    I've been long $SBUX since the 20s, and I'm in agreement that the stock is due for a pullback, I think the high 40s is extremely likely.

    Howard Schultz is one of the best CEO's in America, yet I think the company is getting very complacent ...

    1. Starbucks cafes are starting to fill up with a lot of junk again, just like before the near-death experience in 2007/08. Except this time, it's looking like a grocery store. From Teavana, to Evolution, to baked goods, then a menu that most customers can't even digest since it's about 3 boards of confusion, along with all the other SBUX merchandise ... the cafe I frequent, not a single barista could tell me about the Verismo espresso machine... too bad others within the company don't sell it like Howard. Our store frequently runs out of product, sometimes for an entire week this summer, and most days deli sandwiches are sold out by 9AM... that either speaks to poor management or poor supply chain.. probably both...

    2. Fast Company article Sept. 2014 - "Brewing the perfect cup", about the rise in craft coffee, there's definitely space to penetrate inside large offices, hospitals, etc.... Here's a quote from Major Cohen - Starbucks Senior Product Guy "...All we have to do is decide how we want to be in that group, we have the coffee, we have the people, we have the sites, It's just a matter of what we want to focus our attention on" ... the arrogance of a high level manager thinks $SBUX can just slap a siren on anything and it sells itself... this is always the canary in the coal mine...

    As I've always said, just like when the stock looked like it was headed to zero... $SBUX is $SBUX worst enemy ... too bad because, Howard wears his passion on his sleeve... yet just like last time, the rest of management is going to let him down...

    I'm still long the stock, but have reduced my holding by 95%
    Oct 16, 2014. 11:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple Has To Take Bendgate Seriously [View article]
    There's thousands of items that anyone can put in front of a video and bend it in half... if that's the intent... the good thing is there's investors stupid enough to fall for it, and it becomes a great buying opportunity.
    Sep 26, 2014. 07:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment