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eldaedhel

eldaedhel
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  • My Take On The Nokia And Microsoft Partnership [View article]
    Phones are sold out because the amount given to shops was small!
    It's logical.
    Nov 29 01:02 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Take On The Nokia And Microsoft Partnership [View article]
    L920 is a high-end product, however it faces tough competition with the HTC 8X.

    Consumers positively receive L920. This is the demand. However, the supply is far from a top phone manufacturer level. Today I was in Elisa's shop, and someone ordered a L920. The shopkeeper was not able to say when the product will be delivered.
    There is a huge failure on time-to-market strategy by NOK on the L920. It can only go better, which is good news.

    Second, financials. The smartphone business will never be profitable if NOK management does not take decisions, and quick.
    The estimated breakeven is around 15-20m phones per quarter... there is a long way to go. You can have the best product on the market, if you're losing money when you sell one - it's pointless. If NOK would stop its smartphone business operations now, the value of the company would increase significantly.
    It is understandable, though: sales in smartphone biz were divided by 3 within less than a year: NOK has to face fixed costs related to over-production capacity. Only the Salo plant in Finland got shut down. Rest of factories are very probably running with low volumes (production dropped around 30% within a year).

    Impact: dramatic on financials. COGS have flewn from 71% to 91% of sales. Unsustainable, and no action from NOK management.
    Nov 29 12:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Finnish Pension Funds Have Increased Their Nokia (NOK) (NOK1V) Holdings Substantially [View instapost]
    You mean the pension funds, FH?

    I can probably find the info somewhere.
    Nov 29 12:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft's Windows 8 Is Selling Well: Just Another Reason To Buy [View article]
    @ skiz: NOK's cost structure is not sustainable in the smartphone business!

    They have variable costs at 91% and they have only 9% to cover huge fixed costs...

    Smartphone div will need extra-restructuring in 2013, this is condition to the rebirth.
    Nov 29 11:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft's Windows 8 Is Selling Well: Just Another Reason To Buy [View article]
    MSFT has a stand in my campus to advertise W8. No L920, no Surface...
    Nov 29 08:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Nokia Will Go Higher [View article]
    If you did not need glasses to see that huge peak that everyone already saw, then not sure you can qualify :)
    Nov 28 07:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Goldman Sachs And Morgan Stanley Are Backing The Truck Up For Nokia Shares [View article]
    @ mitrado: at this price, 11% of HKI shares are held by shorters, which is pretty decent amount.
    http://bit.ly/SiN8P7

    NOK short interest at WS is still around maximum level
    http://bit.ly/MSyJuQ

    Many shorters will try to cover soon.
    Nov 28 05:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Nokia Will Go Higher [View article]
    to make money, you just need to know "peaks", not "the peak" :-P
    Nov 28 05:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Nokia Will Go Higher [View article]
    selling at peak is not rocket science

    any basic newbie investor is able to do that with minimum knowledge
    Nov 28 04:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Goldman Sachs And Morgan Stanley Are Backing The Truck Up For Nokia Shares [View article]
    I'd bet GS is working for hedge funds who are shorting the stock (most of their leadership are former GS).

    Just an assumption of mine though.
    Nov 28 04:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Nokia Will Go Higher [View article]
    @Seppo: how reliable is that statcounter?

    I have gathered info from carriers about key markets in Asia (China, Japan) in smartphones: NOK is not playing there.

    As for featured phones, NOK is leader in Indonesia but suffers from tough competition by local players there. NOK in China is below 10%. In Philippines Samsung passed NOK this year. So market share is eroding. India is a hope (depends if you count it in "Asia"), but NOK suffers from tough Android competition there.
    Nov 27 12:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Nokia Will Go Higher [View article]
    Asha is a success, but on a rapidly decreasing market.

    All in all, it is gonna be difficult for NOK to maintain (in the long run) a high position in such a shrinking market, but NOK has been doing good job until now (and has even increased significantly its market share).
    Nov 27 02:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Nokia Will Go Higher [View article]
    Thx for the insight, I had not seen this hypothesis.

    But please let me comment your valuation:
    "Nokia-Siemens: $6.0 billion"
    "Patents: $7.7 billion"
    "Navteq: $5.0 billion"
    "Net Cash: 6.3 billion" => this is incorrect. EUR 3.6bn is the correct figure.

    => Which WACC are you taking?
    => Your hypothesis is Navteq is comparable to NSN? This is ridiculous, NSN generated 300m free cash flow last quarter, Maps are not even profitable.
    => You evaluate patents around EUR 5bn, which seems in line with the EUR 0.5bn cash inflow per year, so I might agree on that one.
    Nov 26 06:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Nokia Will Go Higher [View article]
    "I always believe it's important to be extremely conservative in your calculations of the valuation of a company, because a variety of things can go wrong at any time and you want to make sure that you are buying something with a huge margin of safety. To this end, I have assigned $0 valuation to the smartphone division with good reason"

    A smart conservative view is actually to assume the smartphone division [operating] is actually *destroying* value (which is the case, btw), rather than setting value = 0. Considering the cost structure of the company in smartphones (with breakeven in volume around 15m per quarter), this assumption is false, coz smartphone division will (in the *best* case) keep destroying value in next 2-3 quarters.
    Nov 26 11:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Nokia Will Go Higher [View article]
    "Net Cash: 6.3 billion"

    This is wrong, NOK net cash position is EUR 3.6 bn end of Q3.
    Nov 26 10:47 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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247 Comments
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