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chrisfr

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  • IPad: 25 Million Activations In December? [View instapost]
    Flurry's 78.5% is also backed up by a recent Chitika report that puts iPad usage at 78.86%: http://bit.ly/VHcYhX.
    Jan 6, 2013. 04:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple Will Beat The Street [View article]
    I hope you are right, Robert. Thanks for the reply.
    Dec 5, 2012. 03:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple Will Beat The Street [View article]
    Robert, I respect your work and reckon you among the best of the independent Apple analysts. That said, I just don't see where any of these numbers are coming from. Your estimates for last quarter, as respectable as they were, lead me to believe that you start with Apple's own guidance then proceed to extrapolate from past trends. Such a technique will certainly see some measure of success in some quarters, but it leaves me cold for this one. Just how much supply can Apple provide? What sort of demand are we seeing around the world? Just how do margins improve over time? I see assertions on your part and hard numbers to quantify them, but nothing that gives any confidence that they are based on reality. Tim Cook is only really putting his stamp on his first holiday quarter, and so far his style seems to be to guide realistically. Who's to say (to take one of any number of questions one might ask) that improved delivery times are not a result of weak demand in Europe? What hard data, in a nutshell, allows one to choose one conclusion over another?

    To be unfortunately direct, what has changed in your methodology that would inspire any more confidence compared to your previous predictions?

    In some ways, this should be the easiest of quarters to predict as every iPhone 4, iPad 4 and iPad Mini popping up on various web sites and apps can be assumed to be a newly bought device. Google knows. Angry Birds knows. And anyone privy to this data knows as well. While independent analysts are tweaking their spreadsheets, others with greater means are getting the facts. I think this will be another quarter where the pros show their stuff. Hope I'm wrong... And sorry to be so blunt with a man I respect.
    Dec 4, 2012. 12:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Reportedly Looking Into Switching From Intel To In-House Chips For Macs [View article]
    Apple would be crazy not to be looking into this, and even crazier to actually go for it. Perhaps Apple envisions a new category of devices, one that would extend iOS but not touch their traditional Intel offerings. Perhaps Apple imagines something a bit more like virtualization, where users could run OSX and iOS simultaneously on the desktop, but in this case actually bundling two CPUs. Who knows? In any case, Apple must be constantly exploring new ideas.
    Nov 7, 2012. 09:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Apple's Stock About To Roll Over? [View article]
    Apple would make for a good buy in the low 300s. And unicorns make great pets, so be sure to pick one up should ever one cross your path.
    Nov 9, 2011. 07:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In the wake of the Kindle Fire, analysts seem to be forming a consensus about the tablet market's future: Apple (AAPL), with its differentiated hardware, software, and app base, will dominate the high-end, while Amazon (AMZN), with its subsidized pricing and media/services assets, will control the low-end. And everyone else will be out of luck.  [View news story]
    Ah, I see you are in need of a remedial reading class. So much that we could run through but I fear you will just pile error upon error. Let's try anyway:

    1) Show me where I said that Apple forces people to develop for them?

    2) I did say that Apple extorts others 30% and I did say that I had no problem with them charging developers 30%. Now buckle yourself in because I'm about to draw some distinctions; your head might hurt in the morning, but with practice you might even be able to try this yourself someday. To get a paid app put on the App Store is worth something and 30% works well for many. But in-app subscriptions also get hit with the 30%. Publishers have not exactly been beating down the doors to get in, which is not surprising when their average gross profit margin is only 12%. Same story with digital content like Kindle books. I stand by my use of the word 'extort' as these prices are clearly considered extortionate, or "(of a price) much too high." I can see how, not having the common facts and no particular ability to read the printed word, you find this "odd" and making "no sense."

    3) So, Microsoft have not changed in the slightest in over a decade? Such sloppiness in writing is what I find amusing, although I am willing to entertain the notion that this comes down to pure ignorance on your part.

    4) So you want some moments where Apple have behaved shabbily? How about when they sent a cease-and-desist letter to a third-grade girl who wrote a letter suggesting some product ideas to make the iPods better? How about announcing features (ZFS, AirPort Disk backup) and then silently pulling them without a word of explanation and no comment on their status? So, here are a couple of examples. Now let's stick to them and you show me why they really show how Apple never makes a misstep.

    5) I had to laugh at how you still don't know what the word "logic" means, and consequently have no idea how to use it.
    Oct 1, 2011. 09:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Valuation And The Problem With Comparing P/Es [View article]
    I get the impression that once Apple's growth tapers off and it becomes a cash cow, then the market will be happy to bestow it a P/E of, say, around 12-13 (like today). But as long as its growth continues to explode, well the company can consider itself on probation and expect continued P/E contraction.
    Oct 1, 2011. 06:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In the wake of the Kindle Fire, analysts seem to be forming a consensus about the tablet market's future: Apple (AAPL), with its differentiated hardware, software, and app base, will dominate the high-end, while Amazon (AMZN), with its subsidized pricing and media/services assets, will control the low-end. And everyone else will be out of luck.  [View news story]
    Brewer, you must have accidentally replied to the wrong comment. I reread my post and could not find any reference to "Apple forcing people to develop for them."

    As for Apple's 30% cut on apps, I have no problem with that, just as you have no problem reading what I actually wrote. I'll leave it as an exercise for you to find your fault; please let me know if you need help.

    And as for Microsoft, I'd say they learned to cultivate a certain measure of goodwill sometime between when the former juggernaut weaseled its way out of its antitrust difficulties and now, between when it unethically and illegally attempted to crush nearly any competitor big enough to make it onto its radar, and today when it knocks at others' doors hat in hand hoping to find a partner. But I guess you were paying the same attention back then that you seem to pay things now.

    Apple is a great company but if you've watched them over the past decade then you'd recall more than a few moments where they behaved in less than honorable fashion.

    In can say that you were right to place the word "logic" in quotation marks because I did not use any logic but mere assertion. It would be like me calling you a "nazi," "Buddhist," or "communist" (but not fool).
    Sep 30, 2011. 01:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In the wake of the Kindle Fire, analysts seem to be forming a consensus about the tablet market's future: Apple (AAPL), with its differentiated hardware, software, and app base, will dominate the high-end, while Amazon (AMZN), with its subsidized pricing and media/services assets, will control the low-end. And everyone else will be out of luck.  [View news story]
    If Amazon manages to do real damage with the Fire, Apple will have only itself to blame--a great company but always a little nasty and grasping around the edges. Trying to extort 30% of all revenue that takes place on iOS can only be self-defeating in the end. While it remains to be seen if the genius of Steven Jobs can be replaced, there is no doubt that his harsher qualities could easily be softened if only new leadership will take the initiative. It is never too early to start cultivating good will, just ask Microsoft, a company that had to learn that lesson the hard way.
    Sep 30, 2011. 06:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'Let's Talk' iPhone 5 Is A Game Changer [View article]
    I respect Jason and eagerly read every article he publishes, but there is more to the event than he seems to be considering. The market is assuming a major new iPhone so anything less than a complete redesign will be taken badly (i.e. an iPhone 4S). Many also expect a low-end phone to better compete in the prepaid and emerging markets, and probably carrier agreements in China. And let's not forget an agreement with Sprint. So basically there is plenty of room for disappointment.

    Until just recently the stock has significantly outperformed the market, so the latest announcement has been priced in to some extent. Great hardware alone is not enough, not this time.

    On last twist to consider is that we have Q4 earning just around the corner. I would not be surprised to see the stock take a huge tumble one week from now, only to see it turn around as soon as the weaker holders have been shaken out.
    Sep 28, 2011. 10:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stock Stress Test: Apple Looks Fairly Valued [View article]
    A generic stress test might shed light on any number of companies, but Apple is not one of them. Were the company to report a mere 10% growth in any quarter over the next year, the stock would nose dive immediately. Once the dust actually settled, however, the price would probably snap back to its previous level, as it then might, ironically, better reflect its proper value for once.
    Sep 6, 2011. 07:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Steve Jobs (AAPL) takes medical leave of absence, leaving COO Tim Cook in charge again. Jobs: "Unfortunately, the curiosity over my personal health continues to be a distraction not only for me and my family, but everyone else at Apple as well. In addition, during the past week I have learned that my health-related issues are more complex than I originally thought." AAPL -8% in Frankfurt. (PR)  [View news story]
    Apple's strengths are well known and, if anything, probably under-appreciated; they will blow past all expectations tomorrow. But this latest news is bad, especially as the markets appear over extended and fragile. Six of one, half a dozen of another. Still, all will be clear in a month, then half of our commentators can pat themselves on the back while the other half quietly forget and move on, confidence unshaken.
    Jan 17, 2011. 12:55 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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