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  • Starbucks: The Bear Argument  [View article]
    I've enjoyed a good run with SBUX but sold this morning. That P/E is too high. I do love the growth story with their new products especially alcohol potential plus their China plans.
    But at this P/E level you are already enjoying future growth. Its 10 year P/E average is around 27.

    I'll be back if it hits the mid $40s but would not be surprised if it never happens.
    Oct 20, 2015. 12:58 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SunCoke Confides To IRS: We Don't Qualify For MLP Status  [View article]
    The second issue you bring up, that management told investors everything is fine then told the IRS that its not. That would be an automatic deal breaker for me if I was long. There is no real way to justify that action.
    Jun 17, 2015. 10:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Starbucks: Here's Why I Think It's Worth Considering  [View article]
    DNKN has a 31.86 current P/E and KKD has 44.39.
    Apr 27, 2015. 09:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What You Should Pay For Starbucks  [View article]
    I can appreciate technical analysis. I can appreciate comparing valuations of peers.

    So my question with regards to peer vs peer comparison is does DNKN, MCD, or GMCR...
    sell alcohol?
    offer delivery?
    offer online ordering and pickup?
    Apr 23, 2015. 04:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Aiming My Sights On A Beaten-Down STAG Industrial  [View article]
    Eric: The section above your quoted "Going forward..." part. In the Q4 2014 concall
    Now unless I am reading this wrong...

    "In 2014 we raised more equity than we ultimately needed as two large acquisitions slipped from 2014 to 2015. As a result, we have not issued any equity under our ATM thus far in 2015. We do, however, anticipate opening up the program at some point in the first quarter."

    I am well aware that a REIT has to do SPOs to grow. I have no problem with it. However I am concerned when the company grows by 24% and existing shareholders only see 6% of that growth.
    Now as they had admitted on the concall and you also in your article, they have some unused cash from last fall. Hopefully things get caught up when they deploy the cash.

    For valuation I too use Fastgraphs and what I see is they are above their historic P/FFO ratio which is based on a 12% average... and they are only doing 6%. I think the recent price drop is warranted. I'm waiting for a lower price though I can understand how others may not want to risk waiting.

    On a side note, I do think your research was spot on and well done and I did enjoy reading it as well as our respectful dialogue.
    Apr 23, 2015. 04:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Aiming My Sights On A Beaten-Down STAG Industrial  [View article]
    My concern with STAG is that overall company growth was 24% last year. Sounds great. But FFO Y/Y only went up 6%. They aren't rewarding existing share holders as much as I would like. Now on one hand management said they still have money from their last SPO in 2014 to work through but that they expected to do another SPO in Q1 2015. This was all from the Q4 earnings con call transcripts. This is all as you covered above.

    My take on management is that they are growing for the sake of growing. Now IF they can grow FFO then I'll probably be long.
    Apr 23, 2015. 02:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • It All Went So Quickly  [View article]
    In straight dollar terms with no research or thought put into the revenue loss, yes this is as bad as 2009.

    For those that have taken a look why, currency caused an 8% Y/Y loss. That is absolutely worth discussing. The forex markets are out of IBM management's control. Now they could hedge more and that could be discussed.

    They are divesting low margin divisions of the company. Of course revenue is going to go down. They no longer have those divisions contributing to revenue. It is the right thing to do and yet authors are going to penalize them.

    What I got out of their earnings report is that excluding these two factors that revenue was flat. This is a good thing because it means the older declining technologies are being equally replaced with the newer technologies. I think investors should keep in mind that at around $100 billion in revenue, brand new products are going to take time to make an impact on revenue. Additionally, IBM has been around since the 1880s. This is just one more cycle of phasing out old products and bringing in new ones.
    Apr 23, 2015. 07:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM: The Box Closes In  [View article]
    Boy you can really set your watch by how Dana comes out with a negative IBM article.
    Apr 21, 2015. 10:29 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Top REIT Realty Income Is Riding Record Spreads To Record Profits  [View article]
    jess: The label "hipster" is someone who likes various things because they are little known or not popular by the masses. Small unknown independent music bands are common hipster thing.. until the band gets popular then the hipster doesn't like them anymore.

    I called Heli a hipster investor because the first mainstrem comment didn't have any other qualifiers. Heli's follow up posts discussing P/FFO clears things up (and a stance I agree with).
    Apr 13, 2015. 08:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Making An Argument For The New McDonald's  [View article]
    myliu888: There is more to the world than the U.S
    Apr 9, 2015. 02:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Top REIT Realty Income Is Riding Record Spreads To Record Profits  [View article]
    wow. a hipster investor.
    Apr 6, 2015. 03:15 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM And Rising Rates? Not A Good Combination  [View article]
    I was thinking the exact same thing Transcripts.
    IBM has a ton of debt... in their Global financing division.
    So if these are coming due and rates are rising? Its a GOOD thing for IBM.
    Mar 25, 2015. 07:54 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why IBM's P/E Ratio Means Nothing For Investors  [View article]
    "while bulls simply point to the P/E ratio and say, "IBM trades at just 9x next year's earnings minus cash."

    Bulls who haven't done their research perhaps.
    Those of those that have and have seen the small new divisions having growth and the older legacy technologies shrinking have more of a bull case.

    Its kind of like bears that look at buybacks and leave it at that for their article.
    Mar 17, 2015. 10:51 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Main Street Capital -4.3% after pricing secondary  [View news story]
    You anti spo commentors really need to learn how premium to NAV works. This is a great thing
    Mar 11, 2015. 10:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Capital Is Still A Speculative Security Suspended In Animation  [View article]
    On speculation vs contrarian investing...
    Its contrarian to buy a PROVEN company that has been misspriced by the market.
    Its speculation to take a position in an UNPROVEN company that might be turning around.

    Thats what it comes down to with the Long I am seeing about ARCP being a turn around story. They have a new CEO, new board, and cleaning things up. Who is to say they will be successful or not. Has this CEO been involved in turn around REIT stories before?
    Mar 4, 2015. 10:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment