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dsr70

dsr70
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  • Japan Implications Not All Rosy [View article]
    How does a Yen deval effect importation of raw materials, and further, final margins? Assuming Japanese producers are producing domestically.
    May 11 11:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Tesla Model S Green? [View article]
    Good article, Nathan. The EVangelists are, as usual, histrionic in defense.
    May 9 09:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Affymax Will Rise Again [View article]
    I think it will take significant time to sort through this. Drug lead time is measured in years and decades to begin with. Throw in death and recall, well, that means testing and studies and papers and reviews. I'm obviously not optimistic overall, but if there is a chance I'd figure more than a year if not two. All guesswork, though.
    May 5 01:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney (JCP +11.8%) might have a little breathing room with its cash flow headaches as Goldman Sachs reportedly rounded up financing for the retailer of $1.75B. The news is good enough to help shares pop over $17 for the first time in over a month. (Previous: Stars starting to line up for JCP?) [View news story]
    Latest info at NASDAQ was 4/15. Do we have later short int data?
    Apr 27 04:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney (JCP +11.8%) might have a little breathing room with its cash flow headaches as Goldman Sachs reportedly rounded up financing for the retailer of $1.75B. The news is good enough to help shares pop over $17 for the first time in over a month. (Previous: Stars starting to line up for JCP?) [View news story]
    We've already seen a marked reduction in short interest over the last several months. Not sure there's anything here. http://bit.ly/Y3X05L
    Apr 27 07:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Affymax Will Rise Again [View article]
    How would they magically renegotiate with Takeda? Takeda just signed terms they like. What's in it for them?
    Apr 23 09:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Affymax Will Rise Again [View article]
    You've got to compare apples to apples. Tysabri's well documented withdrawal was after 1 or 2 deaths and as I recall was due to an interaction with another drug. O's problem might not be as simple as a delivery mechanism constituent. It might be the drug itself. Best case scenario would be a preservative or an interaction. But surrendering rights to Takeda indicates it's not so simple to solve with $67M (or whatever the cash remaining was). That's enough money for a full blown phase 3 certainly, so throwing in the towel at this point indicates something more serious at the heart.

    Sorry, but I'm amazed at the Pollyanna arguments being made here. We have evidence of trouble, accept the reality.
    Apr 16 02:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Affymax Will Rise Again [View article]
    You aren't making sense. AFFY wouldn't willingly surrender a cash cow, as you claim Omontys is. There is something here to the mess. Claiming they can just reenter the market is silly. The trust and faith of prescribing docs is likely zero and will remain so. The chicken and egg scenario will likely keep new writings away. Not to mention O was only FDA approved for dialysis patients, and the likelihood that Fresenius or another major player would take a gamble and expose themselves to lawsuits and negative press is low. There are so many hurdles!

    It's fine to speculate, I do it all the time on bio plays. But call a spade a spade here. Now, if you want to argue ROW sales, that's another story for TKPYY more than AFFY.
    Apr 14 12:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Affymax Will Rise Again [View article]
    @zen, your statements reek of fandom. Look, I was long AFFY from way back at 4 or 5 and was a major believer with a strong stake. But reality is reality. With the cash AFFY had on hand, their surrender of rights was a de facto admission of the cost of either a new phase 3 or a biosimilar application upon change or a reformulation and back to phase 1. We don't know, and the investment must be treated as speculative. Your flippant dismissal of the hole they're in is a joke. With the established players on the market coming off patent relatively soon, the window of opportunity was narrow and most likely gone.

    btw, 5 deaths in 25k is catastrophically bad in the population they were serving. Extrapolate to several million patients, which is what we were all hoping, and deaths go to 500.
    Apr 13 11:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas Marches Toward $4.30 As Bullish Withdrawal Season Ends, Fight Ahead For Bears [View article]
    Is there some data online about avg production per rig over time?
    Apr 13 10:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Affymax Will Rise Again [View article]
    @zen, we're talking about deaths, allergic reactions, etc. It's too blithe to say "convince the FDA." There is much more than that, possibly something fundamental about the drug. Any changes in composition will require time consuming and costly testing in all likelihood. They might try for a biosimilar finding, but who knows at this point.

    AFFY has to be viewed as an experimental stage pharma. Odds are quite low, but not zero.
    Apr 13 09:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Affymax Will Rise Again [View article]
    Well, on today's news http://1.usa.gov/ZnNarE (4/10/13): rights to Omontys surrendered to Takeda, remaining employees laid off. Very sad day.

    OTOH, optimists will argue the potential royalty payments can add to 5x the current market cap.
    Apr 10 07:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Royal Dutch Shell: A Look At Profitability [View article]
    Indeed not boring. I passed on RDS some time back when I started putting money into oil cos for the lack of replacement and perceived risky bets but have since come around and am now long. Pearl was the tipping point for me, after learning about the whole GTL process in general. IIRC, gas from the Qatari field is zero cost.
    Apr 5 04:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Royal Dutch Shell: A Look At Profitability [View article]
    Echos what I was going to say. RDS is positioning itself towards nat. gas in a larger way than the other majors. Oil replacement ratio in that context isn't as alarming. You have to believe in nat. gas to buy in, and be willing to stomach arguably greater operational risk than the other majors.

    Two of many articles on their strategy: http://bit.ly/Y0NOvB and http://on.wsj.com/YW0ZBs#
    Apr 4 06:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Exide Technologies (XIDE -49%) resumes trading after a brief halt and plunges; the move is attributed to news suggesting the company has hired Lazard and Akin after traditional refinancing efforts stalled. Also, a Los Angeles Times story out last night discussed potential arsenic concerns at its L.A.-area battery recycling factory. [View news story]
    http://bit.ly/10fLFiO

    Morningstar's corp debt data. Not sure exactly how current when things move rapidly.

    Anyone have another source?
    Apr 4 05:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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