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Investor Llew

Investor Llew
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  • Micron Technology: Convertible Disaster [View article]
    Thanks EP.

    I was addressing the usage of a Short in general.

    I'm not allowed to open a brokerage account and just sell a stock short.

    I have to have some capital in order to do so. There are going to be some capital requirements. That's the Invested dollars that I would use to calculate my return.

    So, if you open your account with $1,000. Shorted the stock which is protected by the Convertibles, and you received $30.... and did nothing with the $1,000 you invested, it's only a 3% return.

    Of course you would still do something, and whatever that would be hopefully would be a gain, but will it be anything close to a 230% return by just using the $1,000 you put asside for the short than to have owned the shares?
    Apr 13, 2014. 11:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron Technology: Convertible Disaster [View article]
    If it were so much of a problem, why did Einhorn, who took a $1 Billion position in MU, invest in Feb. 2014?

    Anyway, I understand how this is a free, no risk investment by buying the Converts and shorting the stock.

    The problem I'm having is that when you short, at lease at most brokerage firms, you will need to have some equity sitting around so you don't get a margin call.

    Depending on how much of your cash/equity is being used just to make this no-risk investment, I can't see it doing better than say, 10% annually, just off the top of my head.

    The Convert Investor that shorted MU did themselves a severe disservice. Really, they obviously analyzed that the purchase of Elpida was worth it by lending money to MU, but then lost a whole lot of opportunity in 2013 when the stock rose 230%?

    Even if I'm off with my calculations on the Convert buyer's return, I doubt they would have made such a huge return as just using their capital to own the stock and take the 230% ride up.

    However, I don't really know what the capital requirements are for large institutional short sellers so I'm just guessing.

    I do have to say that your article was enlightening and thorough.
    Apr 13, 2014. 11:15 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More on BlackBerry's (BBRY +2.7%) annual meeting: Thorsten Heins responded to a question about exploring licensing deals by saying BlackBerry will "pursue every opportunity to create value for shareholders." But he also insisted BlackBerry "must create value" before strategic options are considered. Heins disagreed with a shareholder who called the U.S. Z10 launch "a disaster," and blamed disappointing sales on partner efforts (previous). "I talked to staff at many points of sales and they were inadequately trained or not trained at all … marketing materials were missing." [View news story]
    Today's smartphone/tablet sales people are just not understanding about the product well enough to give it a pitch. They don't even know the difference between the functionality of an Android/iOS/BIS, etc.

    So yes, they need training.
    Jul 9, 2013. 02:00 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nvidia: Short Sellers Get Sucker Punched [View article]
    While i dislike his personal attacks, I'm worried about readers that would take his comments seriously.

    Of course anyone who invests or trades without doing their own research is asking for trouble, but they may be naive enough to make judgments without checking the history of the commentator/author to see if it correlates to the stock's movement.

    That's a warning to all of you who don't do your research on the commentator/author. Look back at their recommendations up to 6 months at least and decide if they were inaccurate and why.

    If they were inaccurate, find out if it was easy to see, such as by doing a bit of Fundamental or Techincal (or both) analysis.

    If they were consistently wrong, stop paying attention to them and point it out so that the readers can discount their comments.

    It will make SA a better place.
    May 15, 2013. 02:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nvidia: Short Sellers Get Sucker Punched [View article]

    I must announce that anyone reading your comments today on Nvidia should look back at your comments going back to late February.

    It shows that you really don't have a clue on how to value a stock.
    May 15, 2013. 03:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nvidia: Short Sellers Get Sucker Punched [View article]
    I know that Ash is excellent in his coverage of Tech in detail.

    However, I do want to mention that there is a strong Macro play going on in the Markets these days.

    If Nvidia's last earnings was released 6 months ago, the stock would not have moved up so significantly in my opinion. The guidance would have been seen as very negative back then, especially in light of the slow down in PCs and the lack of Tegra based Smartphones and Tablets. Especially losing big volume in the Nexus.

    I fully believe we are in a Macro tide push up a lot of boats that don't have holes in their hull.

    Bonds are in trouble at such low yields as the Market becomes safer. It seems to be there will be much more exodus from Bonds for the foreseeable future.

    Likewise for the Safety Play in International Commodities. Gold, Silver, etc. had already plunged and may have a bounce for a short while, but again, we see the same thing. A migration out.

    The tide is coming in to two places, as I see it. The Stock Market and Real Estate.

    I've made so much money in both, It's a happy time to be an investor :)
    May 12, 2013. 02:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nvidia (NVDA): FQ1 EPS of $0.13 beats by $0.03. Revenue of $954.7M (+3.2% Y/Y) beats by $14.2M. Expects FQ2 revenue of $975M (+/- 2%), below consensus of $1.01B. Shares +2% AH. CC at 5PM ET (webcast). (PR[View news story]
    I'm writing OTM Naked Puts just in case that particular sentiment holds, which wouldn't surprise me since I've seen the market do weird things with NVDA.

    It's so easy to make money when the Market has been so inefficient for so long! :)
    May 11, 2013. 02:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nvidia (NVDA): FQ1 EPS of $0.13 beats by $0.03. Revenue of $954.7M (+3.2% Y/Y) beats by $14.2M. Expects FQ2 revenue of $975M (+/- 2%), below consensus of $1.01B. Shares +2% AH. CC at 5PM ET (webcast). (PR[View news story]
    haha... Ash, I agree with your sentiment.

    Fortunately for the $8 target guys, I won't embarrass them by posting their names and their comments.

    BUT, I do hope that they would at least own up to it and say they were wrong. That will help them as they will understand that they need to change something in their valuation models.

    I am currently on a 40%+ projected ROI so far.

    Keep up the good work Ash!
    May 9, 2013. 10:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: The King Is Back [View article]
    How much is a typical Processor for each category?


    In other words, if Tablets are evolving into PCs (and they are!), how much less revenues will Intel Generate because the Tablet CPUs are less expensive than Desktops and Laptops CPUs?

    I can see Intel keeping up with volume initially selling Tablet CPUs as Desktops and Laptops volumes decrease. But shouldn't there be some analysis on when the Volume shifts over to Tablets fully, stabilizing the revenue stream, but at a lower level because of cheaper CPU?

    Haven't we seen this in Storage Devices or somewhere else in the Computer Hardware area?

    Just curious.
    Apr 28, 2013. 11:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nvidia Short Sellers Have It Wrong [View article]
    Benchmarker, instead of making insidious remarks against Ashraf, you should BENCHMARK the performance of the stock with his recommendation and Analysis.

    Do the same for the commentators. I do it.

    I would have to say that Ashraf's pro-Nvidia articles have a correlation with the stock price indicating that he's been on the Mark.

    That's certainly better than at least 4 commentators that I have been tracking since January this year indicating that they are waiting for the stock to fall to $8 per share.

    As ridiculous as that is, it is FAR off the mark 4.5 months later.

    Why don't you complain about those commentators rather than someone who has written articles with a positive correlations to the movement of the stock price?
    Apr 15, 2013. 11:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Nvidia Short Sellers Have It Wrong [View article]
    I understand that it's not uncommon. But with the spike up in stock price, I'm asking is it justified since we expect stock compensation dilution to occur.
    Apr 14, 2013. 07:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nvidia Short Sellers Have It Wrong [View article]
    Hi Ash,

    Thanks for the Article as always.

    If we use an average of $13.50 for the buyback, that will mean $750M / $13.50 = 55 Million Shares would be bought back.

    There is currently 617 Million Shares outstanding and will reduce that to 562 Million.

    HOWEVER, before the share back back started, using a 1 year time frame, Nvidia's Shares outstanding from the release of 10/11 was 610 Million. It peaked before the buy back at 624 Million on the release of 10/12. That's a 14 Million share increase.

    If after the buyback it continues that kind of dilution, wouldn't that negate the benefits of the buyback in 3 years?

    While I don't think the dilution is that big of a deal if Nvidia continues to increase it's revenues and net income, if they stay stagnant then it could be a bit troublesome.
    Apr 14, 2013. 01:27 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nvidia Has A Few Catalysts Coming Up [View article]
    I am just wondering if the Share buy back will be more than the shares that are put back into the float due to stock options or incentive pay.

    Nvidia's outstanding shares have been growing steadily because of new issues.

    Will the buy back reduce the outstanding shares?
    Apr 12, 2013. 12:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nvidia Has A Few Catalysts Coming Up [View article]
    I've been making quite a bit of money on Neutral Strategies for Nvidia.

    I believe Investing has to include some aspect of trading.

    If you go long on a Stock, why not make Covered Call income at the same time?

    If you are waiting for it to come down, why not write a naked call?

    Trading in a $1 range between $12 and $13 is still phenomenally good.
    Apr 10, 2013. 06:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Value Investors Are Going To Cash [View article]
    I am a Trader but stick to the Value Investor Principles.

    I personally believe that Companies who are holding onto cash are really more multi-national companies.

    They have taken advantage of tax harbors like Ireland, Cayman, etc.

    If you know Apple's Foreign Tax Rate, it's less than 2% on a WHOLE LOT OF MONEY made abroad.

    What I believe they are waiting to do is repatriate it to the US without paying US taxes. In other words, they are lobbying and hoping to get a tax holiday for this.

    Now, with such large cash hordes, this skews the P/E ratio.

    If you consider that a Corp. can just buy back their shares with excess cash, it will boost EPS as the shares are re-bought.

    Hence, when I look at a ratio, I don't really look at P/E ONLY. I look at Enterprise Value (EV). EV backs out the Cash and adds the debt to the Market Cap.

    I don't think it's fair to look at today's market in terms of P/E.

    I think you have to re-evaluate the comparison using EV.

    In other words, because of the horde of cash on most multi-national's books, EV to EBITDA should be included in your evaluation, not solely P/E.
    Apr 4, 2013. 11:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment