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  • Bruce Berkowitz: The Invisible Giant [View article]
    I wonder what he sees in JOE
    Jan 19, 2011. 03:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
    Monday's Economic Calender was incorrect. The "1:00 PM NAHB Housing Market Index" actually came out at 10:00AM.

    The reason that is important is that anyone who was relying on Seeking Alpha's economic calender in order to day trade would have been thrown off if they hadn't first looked at the Bloomberg Economic calender, which is actually correct.
    Aug 16, 2010. 12:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Preliminary Examination of Investor Timing For Hurricane Investment Plays [View instapost]
    Cool insight. I wonder if three years 07, 08, and 09 provide enough data for strong statistical results. Also, I wonder how important that historical trend will be in light of large business factors including DVR's growing backlog and active project bidding process which management expressed would be ramping up over the remainder of 2010, seems like those announcements might be the catalysts with the potential to buck the trend shown in the data. We'll have to see.
    May 11, 2010. 10:40 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dean Foods: A Bargain in the Making? [View article]
    I like the free cash flow DF generates. However their balance sheet is not optimal, with nearly $6.5 in total liabilities. Obviously the stock is getting knocked down right now - and with premium brands such as Silk Soymilk under its purview, this stock has built in value - but its hard to love them with so much debt, $4B of which is long term.
    May 11, 2010. 02:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • High Conviction: A Telecom Stock With Growing Sentiment and Hidden Value [View article]
    It's hard to like S with $70B of debt and accumulated deficit. Are they going to be paying interest charges on any of that?

    Also, what do they offer versus the premium market (iPhone, Blackberry) that would provide a compelling option for high end consumers?

    Finally, how do you predict earnings to be positive given the negative cash flow position for the last three years?

    I suppose its by seeing farther then what's immediatly obvious that you've deigned this to be a buy, I don't see it.
    May 10, 2010. 12:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why We All Should Share the Cost of the Gulf Oil Spill Cleanup [View article]
    I am an Economics Major, and the argument in your article quickly became too complex for me to follow!

    A way to simplify this for me would be to say: "If we as the public didn't care about the spill, would BP care?"

    I don't think BP would do anything to correct their mistake in an alternative universe where society provided no backlash for oil spills which kill living things and do damage to the coastal economies.

    BP should pay every single dime involved with this cleanup. It was BP that was profiting from the oil it took out of the earth, and it should pay the consequences. Not because I don't like free market capitalism, but because that is free market capitalism.
    May 9, 2010. 06:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Forest Labs' Reward to Risk Ratio Hits the Spot [View article]
    Armour re-formulation was government mandated. That drug is so old and established there's no reason they'd reformulate on their own accord and incur the associated R&D and SG&A costs if it were up to the company exclusively
    Apr 26, 2010. 09:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Humana Message [View article]
    Great work. My question is how will Humana not just survive, but actually grow its revenue over the next five years given the cuts coming to M.A.?
    Apr 26, 2010. 09:20 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Earnings Preview: Humana [View article]
    Just building on that comment,

    Where does the story go beginning in 2011 when medicare advantage fees are frozen, and then over the ensuing year healthcare reform scales back the medicare advantage budget by billions upon billions of dollars? That makes this earnings announcement, and the long term earnings picture, two very different things.
    Apr 25, 2010. 01:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Forest Labs' Reward to Risk Ratio Hits the Spot [View article]
    Correct about the large cash position and the chronic undervaluation, just be aware that when the generics hit the remaining branded revenue is, for all purposes, essentially nothing, i.e. for conservative appraisal leave out Lexapro revenue altogether after it goes off patent. Namenda goes off later I believe, and on the plus side there's been some exciting growth in Savella, if you've been reading the earnings releases. Finally, the pipeline is robust, with around a dozen candidates, you got to figure some will hit. I'm long FRX.
    Apr 25, 2010. 01:09 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • KSW Looks Undervalued [View article]
    Hi Robin,

    Just curious what kind of barriers to entry you see for HVAC companies operating in NYC? There are dozens of them currently, I know by living in the area, and the necessary knowledge is significantly less than, say, creating CPU's, the brand is immaterial in this case, the way "Coca-Cola" is important, and the capital requirements aren't nearly as steep any many other businesses and are met by those dozens I mentioned.

    Pricing pressure might be of interest in the wake of rising commodity prices which, I presume, are passed down the line to KSW at some point, but which they themselves don't uniquely face.

    Your comments about the CEO taking value out of the company are very interesting and important, and I credit your insight because that information doesn't always make itself so readily available at a cursory glance.
    Apr 23, 2010. 01:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Forest Labs: Earnings Preview [View article]
    Additionally their cash on hand is suitable to make the necessary types of acquisitions to bolster their product lineup. What this amounts to, as far as an opportunity, is current widespread uncertainty keeping the share price below optimal levels. In the ensuing months, as the pipeline matures or new products are in-licensed, that will provide catalysts for share price appreciation and perhaps prove the Lexapro concerns unfounded. Am long a few shares.
    Apr 17, 2010. 01:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • KSW Looks Undervalued [View article]
    I added KSW to my portfolio 3-4 months ago. The various measures of value you ascribed to the company are dead on.

    Just be aware that the HVAC business does not offer much of an economic mote - anyone can do it, there is very little in the way of an entry barrier. This company is undervalued yes, but if you look to the "extreme" upside, you'll notice nothing extraordinary to distinguish it from any other firm engaged in the same type of labor.

    Possibly because it is in such an industry, without much excitement, it has managed to avoid proper valuation up until now, and, with such a conservative balance sheet, the share price will benefit from positive surprises in the future. Nice work.
    Mar 28, 2010. 10:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Another Reason to Be Cautious on Insurance Stocks [View article]
    Great article. I wonder if this will impact insurance investments in the near future; EMF exposure, if proven incontrovertibly to be a threat to human health, seems like it has such a prolonged "incubation" period as to be difficult to pinpoint or allocate to one specific event. Those living in major modern cities are said to be breathing in the equivalent of a cigarette a day, just by inhaling the air. How much liability will come from this, ultimately, one has to wonder.
    Mar 4, 2010. 10:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • This Natural Gas Shipper Is Hedge Fund Manager Pedro De Noronha's Highest Conviction Holding [View article]
    mbkelly75 makes an interesting point that the current fundamentals, including the growth and cash flow track records are not impressive, while the balance sheet is highly leveraged and not as conservative as one would like to see in a company whose income has been negative. Obviously Pedro is doing more research and seeing something that's not immediately obvious.
    Feb 11, 2010. 03:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment