Seeking Alpha
  • DeepValueLover
    If $NOK sells 50 million Lumia 920s during the Holiday Season I will admit I was wrong. Nokia needs to GREATLY boost sales else game over.
    11/4/12
    Reply (181)
    • eldaedhel: They'll sell 10m max I think according to my estimates
      11/5/12
    • DeepValueLover: 10 million won't make a dent in AAPL or Samsung market share.
      11/5/12
    • Leont68: 10million will boost nokias share price for sure.
      11/5/12
    • akoshi: it doesnt need to make a dent in apple or samsung for the share price to go up.
      11/5/12
    • akoshi: look at how many years it took apple to hit 10m devices per quarter http://bit.ly/5J81KX
      11/5/12
    • akoshi: should nokia sell 10 million 4th quarter with its lumia 920 it will definitely make a difference in stock price and people will profit
      11/5/12
    • BGC: additionally if they sell 10 million, it's with a shortened holiday season. mid-november launch and 10 mil? I'll take that.
      11/5/12
    • Abrane: Problem with this is it should be 50 million Lumia's in general. You have the 920, 820, 822,820T and so on
      11/5/12
    • akoshi: it is impossible to reach 50 million devices per quarter on a brand new product, give it a year or two and we will see how it fares
      11/5/12
    • eldaedhel: I'd say 10m max on the Lumialine, and more likely 7-8m. But once again, this volume is far from breakeven
      11/6/12
    • mitrado: If Nokia sells 50 million Lumia this quarter it will go from losing money to surpassing Apple. Those expectations are extremely unrealistic.
      11/6/12
    • DeepValueLover: How can you believe that Nokia has the best phone but not the best sales going forward? Doesn't make sense.
      11/6/12
    • Leont68: DVL. Nokia will survive just fine selling less then 50 million lumias in quarter 4. Worry about Apple.
      11/6/12
    • BGC: DVL. 1) ecosystems are sticky. 2) new product awareness needs to ramp up. 3) number of carriers (920 only on ATT). Makes sense to me.
      11/6/12
    • Abrane: Nok sold upwards of 70 million of "dumb phones" back in Q2. With low end lumia's hitting these emerging markets it may be possible.
      11/6/12
    • Abrane: People are limiting their thoughts to only the WP8 phones. Lumia has so many models world wide (CHINA!) and 50 million actually is feasible
      11/6/12
    • mitrado: DVL: In the 80's we had 3 computers with excellent graphs, sound, great OS & intuitive GUI. Who won? PCs with CGA + a "beep-beep" speaker.
      11/6/12
    • mitrado: DVL: Sometimes the best is not the best-selling. History shows you that! For years, Apple made the best devices but never the best-selling.
      11/6/12
    • mitrado: Still, Apple shares went up a lot. So, does Nokia need to be number 1 for its stock to rise? I think not. All they need to do is make money.
      11/6/12
    • Leont68: att 920 $99.99 820 $49.99 on contract , in for 1. let the games begin http://engt.co/YCoheI
      11/6/12
    • tamyun: Imagine that price going China!! How much are the sales going to be?!
      11/6/12
    • DeepValueLover: All of this Nokia love! Let's check that stock price...nope, still down by over 58% in the last year (2011, same hype, stock falls) deja vu!
      11/7/12
    • eldaedhel: the pricing is smart, but it depends on their inventory
      11/7/12
    • mitrado: Still, DeepValueLover, NOK outperformed AAPL over the last 3 months. Does that mean Apple is now a Crapple!?
      11/7/12
    • DeepValueLover: Three months...wow. Hey Nokia just outperformed Apple from 10:02 a.m. today to 10.15 a.m. today. Must be a buy signal!!
      11/7/12
    • Mr. Knowitall: DVL, best device does not equal best sales. Apple/Samsung still own mindshare, and that's a tough nut to crack and will take time.
      11/7/12
    • DeepValueLover: Best sales = best marketing. Nokia doesn't have that. That is why its sales don't lead to a profit.
      11/7/12
    • Leont68: Best sales = best marketing? Huh?
      11/8/12
    • mitrado: DeepValueLover, it wouldn't hurt you to be a little less biased... but if investing based on feelings is working for you... keep it up, pal!
      11/8/12
    • Leont68: My white lumia is arriving 0n the 9th!
      11/8/12
    • DeepValueLover: Funny how bias is only a problem when it is not Nokia cheerleading. BTW, I invest on profits, fundamentals and value based on earnings.
      11/8/12
    • DeepValueLover: ...that is why Nokia is a great lottery gamble but a poor, poor investment. Bad management + bad marketing + ZERO OS control = $2.65 stock
      11/8/12
    • mitrado: You've already repeated that about a thousand times. Nothing new there, DVL. So... are you a parrot or are you getting paid to bash Nokia?
      11/8/12
    • eldaedhel: operational figures show how NOK is badly managed and will be at risk in Q1 2013
      11/8/12
    • eldaedhel: in the meantime, you are allowed to speculate and gamble, it is always fun isn't it :-)
      11/8/12
    • mitrado: Nokia lost their focus a decade ago. New management expects to swing to profit in less than 3 years. Is making money a bad thing nowadays!?
      11/8/12
    • Leont68: meanwhile good investing = apple at 550
      11/8/12
    • Mr. Knowitall: Apple is going to $450 - $480 I was going to jump in at $550 and decided to hold off.
      11/8/12
    • Leont68: Luke, I was also going to jump in @ $550. I will wait till it finds some support and then consider my options.
      11/8/12
    • DeepValueLover: You guys are great! Apple is falling apart but still NETTING $9 BILLION each CTL-U-A-R-T-E-R! Nokia is a winner but $0 in profit. LOL. Funny
      11/8/12
    • Mr. Knowitall: Oohh, Aahh, that's how all of this starts, but then later there's the running and screaming" - Jeff Goldblum -The Lost World: Jurassic Park.
      11/8/12
    • mitrado: DVL: Markets are irrational. AMZN has almost no profit margins & a P/E over 3000!!! LNKD barely makes money, P/E = 626. AAPL P/E = 12. Why?
      11/8/12
    • DeepValueLover: Markets ARE irrational but profits AREN'T irrational. That is why with a highly profitable investment market price doesn't matter.
      11/10/12
    • mitrado: What's so good about AAPL then? If you can invest in companies priced as being 50 & 250 times more valuable than Apple, why choose AAPL!?
      11/10/12
    • mitrado: If it's such a great investment, why does AAPL trade with such a low P/E? Looks like the markets aren't buying the "best company ever" myth.
      11/10/12
    • Mr. Knowitall: *where's the like button*
      11/10/12
    • DeepValueLover: What's so good about AAPL? I repeat:...Apple is NETTING $9 BILLION each CTL-U-A-R-T-E-R! Buying highly profitable companies cheap is a dream!!
      11/11/12
    • eldaedhel: +1 DVL
      11/11/12
    • mitrado: Sure it's a dream but it's all relative. It can always become "cheaper"... and by the looks of it, Apple's growth story has just ended.
      11/11/12
    • mitrado: I prefer companies while they're growing. I find very hard to bet on companies like AAPL, which is clearly peaking... and no longer growing.
      11/11/12
    • mitrado: AAPL was terrific while they were quickly growing but it's starting to stagnate. Very risky bet, no matter how many millions Apple makes.
      11/11/12
    • eldaedhel: Question is: is AAPL's intrinsic value higher than market value or not. AAPL sales clearly grow, which is a fundamental of valuation
      11/11/12
    • DeepValueLover: mitrado: you wrote "millions". Apple earns billions...TENS of billions of dollars. Peaking? That's hilarious.
      11/11/12
    • Mr. Knowitall: Yeah, Peaking? That's hilarious. The word he was looking for is peaked.
      11/11/12
    • DeepValueLover: Nokia fans can't provide numbers to back up their fantasies. Apple is selling billions of dollars worth of product each week. Prove me wrong
      11/12/12
    • mitrado: DVL: I know but what matters to markets is growth. HP earns a lot of cash (always has) but as soon as growth started to decline, so did HPQ.
      11/12/12
    • mitrado: If AAPL earnings start to stabilize AAPL will reflect that. P/E will go lower. AAPL earnings will have to grow for its stock to do the same.
      11/12/12
    • DeepValueLover: If you don't know the difference between the balance sheets of AAPL and HPQ then you should probably stick to index funds. AAPL is growing.
      11/14/12
    • mitrado: For now, yes, but for how longer? Do you really believe Apple will keep growing at the same pace? If so, then AAPL is the buy of a century!
      11/14/12
    • mitrado: Anyway, DVL, Apple's balance sheet won't save its stock whenever Apple's earnings start to shrink. You know that perfectly well, don't you?
      11/14/12
    • DeepValueLover: Why is Apple CERTAINLY going to stop producing profits but Nokia is also CERTAINLY going to START producing profits? Pure Fantasy world! lol
      11/14/12
    • mitrado: DVL: Please stop mixing up "negative earnings growth" and "not being profitable". You know very well what I'm talking about. Don't act dumb.
      11/14/12
    • BGC: DVL has been awfully quiet as of late... coincidence?
      12/5/12
    • Leont68: lol
      12/5/12
    • turtledividend: hahaha too funny : )
      12/5/12
    • DeepValueLover: Nokia is still down a lot for the year. Just a fact...no hype.
      12/5/12
    • Mr. Knowitall: Up 11.34% so far today and a lot of us longs are just happy. We longs won't need to reach 50 phones for the holiday season to 'win' here.
      12/5/12
    • DeepValueLover: Only a VERY few posting here FIRST bought Nokia below $2. Many 2011 posters here hyping this stock @ $5 and above. Where are the profits?
      12/6/12
    • DeepValueLover: Funny.. all of the veteran Nokia posters magically first bought at the bottom. I recall many of these people posting at $5 and above in '11.
      12/6/12
    • mitrado: I''ve bought a little bit at $4.96, DVL and I've added at $2.37, lowering my avg to $2.67. After selling some, my average is now $1.98.
      12/6/12
    • mitrado: You can ask the same about all the freaks who said "what a great investment AAPL is at $700" Where are they now? Hiding under a rock. Right?
      12/6/12
    • DeepValueLover: mitrado: Price doesn't matter if the company is highly profitable UNLESS the price is too high. AAPL growth rate and margins = undervalued.
      12/6/12
    • DeepValueLover: AAPL is only a bigger bargain now unless they start posting losses (like Nokia). Real investors don't care about price until it is too high
      12/6/12
    • DeepValueLover: Meanwhile Nokia investors are buying hope at these prices, not profits. There are no profits.
      12/6/12
    • Leont68: i sell puts, so far a little profits around $5000
      12/6/12
    • Eld: +1 DVL, could not agree more.
      12/6/12
    • mitrado: DeepValueLover: you talk as if the markets were rational. How funny.
      12/6/12
    • turtledividend: DVL is an apple bagholder and evangelist. No point of discussion.
      12/6/12
    • BGC: actually i first bought below $2. And far from a "hope", I bought a rational and thus far proven position that nokia would not go bust.
      12/6/12
    • BGC: Also, 4 out of 5 of nokia's businesses are profitable. Which means all they have to do is show a positive trajectory in devices to go up.
      12/6/12
    • Eld: @BGC: 1 of these businesses will soon contribute to 0, and value destruction will still happen in smartphones, that NSN will not compensate.
      12/6/12
    • BGC: oh to be sure, smartphones will take more time to recover, but i'm saying the street is not always focused on profit like dvl says, in this
      12/6/12
    • BGC: case they are focused more on market share, sales and near-term stats, because if Nokia improves that trend, then profitability will come.
      12/6/12
    • Eld: Will come, but at which level? If as a shareholder you do not get good enough return, you'll move on. NOK's profitability is low capped atm
      12/6/12
    • BGC: devices should break even somewhere between 10-15mm a quarter, 4Q12 could already hit 6mm. they sell at carriers with 400mm smartphone subs
      12/6/12
    • Eld: NOK sold 12m smartphone in Q1 2012. Operating result: EUR -300m. The breakeven is much higher.
      12/6/12
    • BGC: not necessarily, 920 and WP phones are higher ASP and margin, Q1 was weighted towards old smartphones so probably flushing inventory.
      12/6/12
    • Eld: ASP Lumia Q1 2012: €220, Q2 2012: €186, Q3 2012: €160
      12/6/12
    • Seppo Sahrakorpi: @BGC Please see my analysis of break even here http://seekingalpha.com/c/76xs7 and a correction here http://seekingalpha.com/c/77tqr
      12/6/12
    • Seppo Sahrakorpi: In short, for smrt phones alone one needs to sell 20M per Q, but considering the whole Mobile Dev unit, the break even is at 100M phones /Q
      12/6/12
    • DeepValueLover: Apple bagholder? Apple is up 34% in 2012 and Nokia is down 23%. Don't get mad at the facts.
      12/6/12
    • Leont68: last 3 months nokia is up 52.4% and Apple is down 19.1% why should we get mad?
      12/6/12
    • BGC: nice selective data there Eld, too bad you didn't also post that Symbian ASP's are in the €127 range and smartphones overall is €140-150.
      12/6/12
    • BGC: It's ok, DVL's assumption is obviously that investors can only buy stocks on January 1st of any given year. To each their own.
      12/6/12
    • DeepValueLover: Many of the VERY SAME posters hyping Nokia at $5 and above in 2011 and even 2010. Beware of Cheerleaders. Hype ≠ profitability.
      12/7/12
    • DeepValueLover: Once again, Nokia cheerleaders pretend they first bought Nokia at the bottom. These Nokia fans DID NOT 1st buy 3 months ago.
      12/7/12
    • PaperchaserB: My avg NOK price is $2.78. Bought tons of shares and needless to say im having a Merry Christmas thus far...:)
      12/7/12
    • Eld: @BGC: not selective, because Symbian will not contribute in smartphone div from Q4. You should look at Lumia, not Symbian.
      12/7/12
    • mitrado: DeepValueLover: Yeah, they remind me of the Apple fanatics who bought AAPL on January 1st... or better still, on 1997! :-P
      12/7/12
    • DeepValueLover: People who bought Apple before Steve Jobs came back bought on hope too and got lucky. Luck is not a strategy.
      12/7/12
    • mitrado: DVL, Steve Jobs had already joined Apple... AAPL was trading around 8$ a share. Still, Goldman Sachs & JP Morgan was telling you to Sell.
      12/7/12
    • mitrado: You can study whatever you want, DVL. Luck is the only working strategy for the stock market. Like it or not, this is all just a big casino.
      12/7/12
    • mitrado: Most of the times, fundamentals are completely ignored. Every stock trades on hopium. You need luck to survive, no matter what you buy. :-P
      12/7/12
    • Eld: nah mitrado, market always comes back to fundamentals 'at some point' :-P
      12/7/12
    • BGC: @Eld you're proving my point, less weighting on symbian ='s higher avg. ASP for smartphones. e.g., 3Q12 smartphone ASP €155 vs 3Q11 €131.
      12/7/12
    • BGC: in this case i actually agree with DVL, trading solely on luck is not a strategy, i just fundamentally disagree that this is a "luck" trade.
      12/7/12
    • Eld: @BGC: you should look at the trend of Lumia's price :-)
      12/7/12
    • BGC: IMHO, this is a trade based on Buffet's investing principle of "be greedy when others are fearful".
      12/7/12
    • BGC: Also, it aligns with Buffet's long-term investment horizon. I am perfectly happy holding Nokia for 10 years b/c i think they are hugely...
      12/7/12
    • turtledividend: It does comes back to fundamentals after the weak is thinned out. Mitrado has a point.
      12/7/12
    • BGC: undervalued even if they just become number 3 in global triopoly in smartphones given that shorters valued the company at a firesale price.
      12/7/12
    • BGC: @Eld, trend is going down b/c they are expanding to multiple price points. But each model still higher than equivalent Symbian ASP. next?
      12/7/12
    • Eld: Q3 2012: 50% Symbian 50% Lumia, total ASP 155€, WP 160€ => Symbian 150€. True, higher, but *slightly*.
      12/7/12
    • turtledividend: " Logic is little tweeting bird chirping in meadow. Logic is wreath of pretty flowers that smell bad. "
      12/7/12
    • Leont68: Next year Nokia will be making a profit, do all the math you want.
      12/7/12
    • turtledividend: Hey Leon, options must be treating you well. : )
      12/7/12
    • Leont68: At this point its not about if Nokia will succeed, its about when. Couple of months back all the nay sayers wished Nokia would go bankrupt.
      12/7/12
    • DeepValueLover: Jobs became CEO of Apple on July 9, 1997...for the record. No one bought Apple then because it would trade 60x higher 14 years later. Luck.
      12/7/12
    • DeepValueLover: BGC...then why hasn't Buffett bought Nokia?
      12/7/12
    • DeepValueLover: Leont68: In 2011 Seeking Alpha posters said NOK would make profit in 2012. Same for 2010 to 2011. Same old story...
      12/7/12
    • BGC: DVL... easy, Buffet's other rule is invest in what you understand. His view is he doesn't understand tech sector enough to invest.
      12/7/12
    • Mr. Knowitall: I guess this is why I like Nokia, I know software, Windows, and handheld devices, I like the Nokia device and their history and iOS is blah.
      12/7/12
    • BGC: Exactly, everyone has their own comfort zones, i have followed nokia and WP for 2 years now, love tech, etc. Again, to each their own.
      12/7/12
    • Leont68: I dont know about those posters in 2011. I got interested in nokia when elop decided to go windows phone. And so far, I am doing great.
      12/7/12
    • mitrado: DVL: Mr Buffet doesn't buy AAPL: http://bit.ly/QOaekF ... So what?... Mr Buffet doesn't like GOOG as well. Again, so f@ckin' what?
      12/7/12
    • DeepValueLover: Buffett is the biggest investor in IBM. And I've heard rumors that IBM is a tech company. Why bring up Buffett if you don't understand him?
      12/8/12
    • BGC: From his 1998 letter to shareholders: "Technology is just something we don't understand, so we don't invest in it." What's not clear there?
      12/8/12
    • BGC: Every article about his recent tech stakes also points out how atypical they are, but regardless, do I think he would ever invest in NOK?
      12/8/12
    • Eld: @BGC: 1998... was last millenium :P
      12/8/12
    • BGC: Nope, it's too small for him. Btw, I also heard a rumor that IBM sold thinkpad and is more a consulting/outsourcing co than tech co.
      12/8/12
    • BGC: @Eld it was also the height of the internet boom, by not investing tech Buffet also upheld his "be fearful when others are greedy" principle
      12/8/12
    • BGC: @DVL btw your original question was bunk. If I agree with Buffet's principles does that mean I have to own his portfolio or him mine? No.
      12/8/12
    • mitrado: "Buffett is the biggest investor in IBM. And I've heard rumors that IBM is a tech company." --- An exception is his long career.
      12/8/12
    • mitrado: "Why bring up Buffett if you don't understand him?" - I also don't know why you did such a thing, DeepValueLover. Have you found the answer?
      12/8/12
    • Eld: Guyz, you're gonna break the record of posts for a StockTalk! Good job =P
      12/8/12
    • turtledividend: I see a possible income generator for SA stock talk, I am poster # 136 that's equivalent to, wait a minute, 136 centavos =P
      12/8/12
    • BGC: I'm makin it rain! :)
      12/8/12
    • DeepValueLover: mitrado...I didn't bring up Warren Buffett.
      12/9/12
    • DeepValueLover: BGC: YOU brought up Warren Buffett.
      12/9/12
    • DeepValueLover: Warren Buffett never said be greedy when others are fearful even if the stock is not a true value (like NOK when it went from $9 to $2).
      12/9/12
    • DeepValueLover: Warren Buffett does not buy stocks that have free falling operating margins, dwindling net cash, shrinking revenues and commodity status.
      12/9/12
    • Eld: http://bit.ly/YvYCHB for more info on the topic!
      12/9/12
    • BGC: That's funny because he bought Gs after it dropped 50% at the height of the crisis and b of a after it lost $9bn and was low on capital.
      12/9/12
    • BGC: And what's "true value"? Are you the arbiter of true value? You do know different views exist in this world right?
      12/9/12
    • Eld: @ BGC: I think DVL is referring to the basics of value creation, which is free cash flow generation+capacity to grow
      12/9/12
    • Eld: In that sense, NOK's phone business is in trouble, cf. my instablog
      12/9/12
    • mitrado: Me thinks DVL should change his nick to Dogmatic Value Lover... as he always manages to adjust any information to fit his own point of view.
      12/9/12
    • BGC: @Eld I hear you and read your piece. It's thoughtful, but I think we just have diff views on when utilization will catch up to capacity.
      12/9/12
    • BGC: Also, as you said, FCF and growth are both forward-looking, so even if devices in dumps today, "true" value depends heavily on your outlook.
      12/9/12
    • Eld: @BGC: I do agree, but the timeframe is limited. NOK's phone div has EUR 3bn cash, and has burnt EUR 0.6-1bn per quarter in 2012!
      12/9/12
    • Eld: even with selling 12m smartphones in Q1 (cash burn: EUR 1bn) :)
      12/9/12
    • BGC: Welp, the beauty of this stock is we'll all have a much clearer view come January of what the situation is!
      12/9/12
    • Eld: Not January BGC :) January will be good, stocks will rocket, enjoy your gain! But April, after Q1, you'll see the reality :-)
      12/9/12
    • BGC: playin the long game, you have to expect some fits and starts, even if there's a dip in q2. long term view, nokia will be back.
      12/9/12
    • turtledividend: Eld, great points again about post Q1. BGC, I've seem my shares go to -40% to +48 YTD. Long game is filled w/ fits and starts. Stay strong.
      12/9/12
    • turtledividend: I've average down, can't seem to find the reason on averaging upwards, rather see it grow and sow the fruits of my labor.
      12/9/12
    • turtledividend: Dogmatic Value Lover. Lol DVL had some great points buy saying to sell back in april >, & so forth, called the drops, a contributing basher.
      12/9/12
    • Seppo Sahrakorpi: @turtle yep, this is for the long term, 1+ year. One has to wait for at least Q2 results. IMHO there is huge potential in NOK as a whole
      12/9/12
    • DeepValueLover: AAPL continues to mint cash while NOK continues to burn it like a camp fire. But it is fun to play the lottery. Not for life savings though.
      12/10/12
    • DeepValueLover: Cherry picking a few months of stabilized gains doesn't erase 12 full quarters of earnings, market share and stock price collapse.
      12/10/12
    • DeepValueLover: turtledividend: You've conveniently left out my warnings against buying Nokia when it was above $5, $4 and $3. I see bad mgmt and value trap
      12/10/12
    • turtledividend: I added a larger position after xdiv, but my pride got on the way and cont'd to average down. As a young investor I have much to learn.
      12/10/12
    • turtledividend: You are absolutely correct DVL. I still cringe thinking about the past, all has been said and done. Just looking forward to see this through
      12/10/12
    • DeepValueLover: As Nokia cheerleaders have bashed my accuracy re: NOK I have saved readers money if they listened. I don't feel guilty about being right.
      12/10/12
    • shdwoflyte: It doesn't erase anything, but it shows improvement. And the fact that the stock declined so much could be looked at (to me at least) as an
      12/10/12
    • DeepValueLover: The future of Nokia is bright IF and only IF they get good management especially in marketing and asset management. Monetize the patents!
      12/10/12
    • BGC: soooooo how bout dem breakevens? Eld? =)
      1/10/13
    • Eld: Smartphone biz did not reach breakeven for sure. It is compensated by good performance of Asha, and i'm impatient to see financials
      1/10/13
    • Leont68: remember to break down those numbers for us non financial people ELD :P
      1/10/13
    • Eld: I'm gonna send you the bill Leon :D
      1/10/13
    • DeepValueLover: Looking good! Gonna see if they can raise those shipments to 34 million phones in Q2. Would like to see a massive stock buyback announced.
      1/10/13
    • Leont68: I would just like to see a dividend being announced during the conference call
      1/10/13
    • BGC: fingers crossed for dividend as well. i think probability of one just shot up with these financials
      1/10/13
    • BGC: fingers crossed for dividend as well. i think probability of one just shot up with these financials
      1/10/13
    • Mr. Knowitall: DVL, should we hit $5 and mutual funds can start buying, what kind of stock action are we likely to see?
      1/10/13
    • DeepValueLover: I don't know. Nokia is now a plaything for hedge fund computers. But. long term, all they have to do is increase profitablity to win.
      1/11/13
    • mitrado: Exactly, DVL. Whoaaaaa! Finally I agree with something you say about Nokia! :-P
      1/11/13
    • Leont68: +1
      1/11/13
    • Seppo Sahrakorpi: +2
      1/11/13
    • BGC: +3
      1/11/13
    • ttc537dp: +100
      1/11/13