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mjbwf5

mjbwf5
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  • Big Picture Continues To Align With Bullish Case For Stocks [View article]
    Chris, want to start by saying I appreciate your articles and the fact that you share your knowledge freely with the investment community. I'm relatively new (2010) to investing and have been watching your Youtube videos since 2011 or there abouts.

    My question, what if your assumptions about what "growth" is (i.e. investors gravitate towards growth when they are confident) or "conservative" is changes or starts to not correlate in the manner that they have in the recent past, say the last decade or two. Would the model still be useful? I suppose price is the most important factor in the market model so the answer would be yes?

    For example the XLF, generally leads the pack in an expanding economy, however, it's my understanding that BAC earnings were good more due to trading & deck shuffling, not necessarily expanding credit and loans being repaid. Which doesn't necessarily mean the economy is bad, but it's not fundamentally why financials would lead in an expanding economy.
    Jan 15 10:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Market Gains Since The Lehman Collapse May Fall Victim To Politics; In This Case CYA Means Cover Your Assets [View article]
    I'd like to see the individual mandate given a one year delay as well as have congress be required to purchase their healthcare from the exchanges; the later not out of spite, but if congress is subject to the flaws in the law you can be damn sure those flaws will be fixed pretty timely.

    In exchange for negotiating on the debt ceiling, which he really shouldn't have to do, maybe Obama could ask that the debt ceiling be eliminated from law entirely and that all future legislation be funded at the time it's passed rather than passing the buck to a future congress.
    Oct 7 11:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: Time To Give It Up [View article]
    I think there is good value in STO. I also like SO for consistency and to tamp out some volatility. There is some good info on this site about MU too if you need a growth stock. Other than that, honestly, I don't see a whole lot out that there that is a no brainer "buy" so I just picked up VOO. Low fees, 2% yield and diversified (Although I guess in a round about sort of way I bought some more Intel with that though ha).
    Jul 18 03:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: Time To Give It Up [View article]
    6 months ago I would have agreed with you, but after this conference call I think the evidence/fundamentals have changed. I used to believe that Intel was going to create processors that the market wanted, but now we see, based on flat guidance, that even management is not expecting these brand new revolutionary processors to have an impact. I would shift the lower band of your range to 19-20...no telling the upper band until we start to see some traction somewhere outside of PCs.
    Jul 18 11:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: Time To Give It Up [View article]
    I bailed as well. If you want a 4+% dividend buy SO or something and wait for Intel to get its act together. At least you won't (likely) lose 10-20% of your capital while you wait.

    Management caught off guard by the velocity of the PC market decline does not give warm feelings about their fab capacity. Expecting flat revenue in a bull market with two new products coming out does not inspire confidence. I think the risk/reward on this stock has shifted to where the margin of safety isn't built in until at least $20, maybe in the teens.

    Great company, interesting technology to follow, but just doesn't seem to move the needle investment wise. Feel lucky I got out of Intel for what I bought in + 2 years of dividends.
    Jul 18 11:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel (INTC) now -4.4% AH following its Q2 report, thanks to downbeat CC remarks. The chip giant says channel inventory has grown following the Haswell launch, and (as reflected in Gartner/IDC's Q2 numbers) that Chinese sales have weakened. The chip giant also admits 2H visibility is limited for now. Intel is banking on improving macro conditions and a flurry of Haswell/Bay Trail notebook, tablet, and convertible launches later this year to lift sales. RBC and Bernstein aren't sure if Intel has lowered guidance enough. AMD -0.7% and HPQ -0.6% in sympathy. AMAT -0.5% thanks to the capex guidance cut[View news story]
    If they don't increase the div GS price target of $16 may not be so far fetched.
    Jul 17 11:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • General Electric: Becoming Your Daddy's Dividend Stalwart Again [View article]
    This may be a dumb question because I don't understand GE's capital structure, but what impact will higher interest rates have on their debt servicing and overall profitability?
    Jun 21 08:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Inside Your Portfolio [View article]
    Josemcc

    "So, why the heck would you add the dividend yield to the growth rate?!"

    It's just a way to put equal value on the growth of a company as well as its yield with regard to expected future value of your portfolio, not necessarily future value of the stock price. For example a company with virtually no earnings growth is going to have a sky high PEG, but if you include the yield in the G you see that the net expected effect on the value of your portfolio could still be to your liking (if said Co has a low PEG+Y).

    Again, this is assuming that you re-invest dividends to get the compounding effect.
    May 31 01:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Inside Your Portfolio [View article]
    Assuming a company with no dividend grew its earning by 3% compounding, in a perfect world the share price would rise by 3% compounding.

    In that same perfect world, if a company grew its earnings by 0%, but paid out a 3% dividend it would have the same effect, the only assumption is that in order for it to be compounding you have to DRIP.

    I personally like to set a maximum PEG+Y rate that I will pay based on the 10 year yield. At a 10 year of 2% I'll pay a PEG+Y of 2 and at a 10 year yield at 6% I'm willing to pay no more than 1. Anything above 6% and I'm probably not going to be that interested in stocks provided the Gov is solvent.
    May 31 12:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Needs ARM: Strength Through Togetherness - A British Viewpoint [View article]
    I've kind of come to think of ARM as the tip of the computing innovation spear. If someone wants to put a processor in a sofa or a refrigerator, their using ARM. Of the, lets say, few hundred different families of devices that a processor could go into in the IOT, a dozen might wind up developing into a market that could benefit from more processing power (phones) and that's when Intel is going to shine. Phones and tablets are in those stages now and in the future it could be a watch or you own body, who knows. ARM's business model allows it and it's customers to explore any and all possibilities where Intel has to focus more precisely. Both businesses are not necessarily at the expense of one another all the time.
    May 11 11:58 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Drops An Atomic Bomb On ARM's 'Abomination' [View article]
    One thing I think people gloss over a little bit is that Intel is one of, if not the most, reliable supplier of processors. Lets say if Apple could relieve itself of supply constraints/concerns (that happen from time to time with ARM guys) Intel's chip performance may not need to be all that much better for the switch to be economical. Plus, they could keep a skeleton crew for supporting x86 vs a whole design team for ARM. From what I understand the price of the Intel processors will be comparable to the ARM variety as well.
    May 9 12:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Drops An Atomic Bomb On ARM's 'Abomination' [View article]
    I'm pretty sure processor power typically outpaces market "need". Then someone creates something sweet with the extra power and wala...a new "need". "good enough" is a moving target.
    May 9 12:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Infestation Of Gold Bugs [View article]
    That is cause for concern....if people are willing to pay any price (I assume the dealer has a mark-up well north of spot if demand is that great) it usually ends with a crash.
    Apr 25 11:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD Hopes ARM Can Save It [View article]
    Haha ARM = The Wankel
    Apr 25 07:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: Ignoring The Facts Can Cost Investors Money Even With A 4.40% Dividend Yield [View article]
    Good call, 3 months n change.
    Apr 23 11:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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