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  • Why Homebuilder Pessimism Doesn't Matter [View article]
    Yes, and it would have been bought at the top of the housing market and the start of the downward trend. It's about recognizing the current trend, not buying at the end of the trend.
    Mar 22, 2013. 08:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Recession Is Here Already [View article]
    The unadjusted last 3 months change for November to February is the 3rd best in a decade. Will there be a new article about the acceleration?
    Mar 9, 2013. 07:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jobless Claims Surge On Sandy ... Or Is It Something More? [View article]
    The state level detail(November 3rd) has a 1 week lag from the advance headline number on November 10th.

    The November 10 state level detail will be available next week.
    Nov 16, 2012. 07:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Falling Of The Fiscal Cliff Really Means [View article]
    Greece government spending makes up most of the economy with shipping being the only bright spot in the private sector. While the US has a large private sector full of international leaders in various industries. Private payroll growth can outpace public cuts in the US, while the US private sector continues to grow.

    Austerity is unlikely to result in a 25% GDP drop in growth, when the US has a much higher ratio of private/public employees.

    For the last 4 years, we have been shedding public sector jobs. The overall payrolls have still increased, due to the growth in private sector jobs.
    Oct 14, 2012. 09:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Getting Back To Even: Job Creation Under President Obama [View article]
    Bespoke wrote: "Once again, if we do not include January 2009 in the total since that was the month the President was inaugurated, the net number of jobs created under President Obama becomes positive 514K."

    The January 2009 reporting period is the week of January 12th. The inauguration was not until the 19th. None of the January data set would have been credited to the current administration. The first month would have been February 2009.

    Bespoke wrote:"Fifteen months into his term (March 2012), "

    The 15 month mark would have been April 2012.
    Oct 5, 2012. 12:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why U.S. Unemployment Figures Are Completely Misleading [View article]
    The difference in the u-6 and u-3 is old news. It has been rehashed multiple times by better authors.

    The most recent post being the August 6th post by HiddenValueInvestor.
    Aug 24, 2012. 10:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Romney's VP Choice: Good For Gold This Fall? [View article]
    When he ignores repeal efforts for Romneycare and the individual mandate in his own state, he hasn't changed. He will replace Obama's individual mandate with his own. Ryan is a figurehead, as Palin was for McCain. It's putting lipstick on a pig.
    Aug 12, 2012. 02:03 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Builder Confidence Will Prove Fleeting [View article]
    I rather buy Home Depot in the next selloff for a play in housing. Underwater homeowners realize that they aren't going anywhere. Banks are foreclosing on more properties now that the moratorium is over. They will need to hire contractors to fix the homes in the higher end of the market. Investors are buying the broken down REO properties and fixing them up for rentals. Now if the builders are experiencing a recovery, their contractors and subcontractors will be going to Home Depot, too.
    Jul 22, 2012. 07:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retail Sales Suffer From Loss Of Extended Unemployment Benefits [View article]
    The whole premise is wrong. It's based on retail sales from 2009, when the extended unemployment claims numbers were growing not falling.
    Jul 9, 2012. 08:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Texas Natural Gas Mystery ... Solved [View article]
    Great catch, Paulo. I always wondered about the discrepancy.
    Jun 15, 2012. 07:59 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Be Fooled By 5 Automakers' May Sales [View article]
    "Almost every major automaker in the U.S. had a very good May. Toyota (TM) sales were up by an astounding 86% and Honda's (HMC) sales improved by 48%."

    T-dot made a great point. Toyota and Honda are just returning to pre-Tsunami levels. It's unlikely the sales will drop below the near-zero levels of last year's Tsunami season. There was looser lending standards, last year also. You can't sell what you what you don't have.
    Jun 10, 2012. 11:24 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More Signs Of A Housing Upturn [View article]
    The above dataset is from April. The April data for Case-Shiller isn't even available yet. It won't be available until June 23rd.
    May 24, 2012. 07:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • General TVIX Has Been Demoted: Use VIX ETFs Instead [View article]
    For the uninformed like me, what's the advantage of VQT over other VIX products?

    Thanks for the tip.
    May 16, 2012. 07:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Despite the first quarterly fall for U.S. strip mall vacancies in 7 years (from 11% to 10.9% in Q1), Reis isn't yet calling a bottom for the sector. With new strip mall supply near historic lows, if demand was truly rebounding, vacancies would have shown a stronger decline. "The tide of the economy is not rising quickly enough to raise all the ships in the ocean of retail."  [View news story]
    What is the number of strip malls that have been foreclosed on or closed due to disrepair, during the past year? The vacancy rate could drop, when strip malls are seized for unpaid taxes or a delinquent mortgage. If a strip mall is vacant for a few months, eventually the money will run out. The bank will seize the property.
    Apr 8, 2012. 09:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jobs Data And The Recent Week In Perspective [View article]
    My barometer of an improving economy is the type of job offers now compared to last year. I found multiple job offers for $10-20k/yr increase for doing the same position, a few months ago. I accepted a $20k raise and work fewer hours at a new job. I started looking around, after several people quit for higher paying jobs from BP, Chase, etc. They were talking about offers for $10k-20k more for the same position. Last year, nobody was able to find any jobs, so everybody stayed.
    Apr 7, 2012. 07:21 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment