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  • Gold Has Broken Technically And The Selling Will Be Scary [View article]
    Gold will not be sniffing 148.

    With the big drop in the market, I am sure it was a record day for margin calls. Instead of opting to selling the stock at lows, they decided to take profits from gold which is still up for the year.

    Go ahead and short it. When it doesn't hit 148, you will need to cover the losses as gold rallies.
    Sep 22, 2011. 04:47 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Unemployment: It's Worse than It Looks [View article]
    You just provided $600k of income to several other employees and companies. The workers who designed it, the production workers who assembled it. You are also supporing the bookkeeper, management, financers supporting that company. If we move back in the supply chain, there are the parts makers. Then, if you move further back, there are the raw material suppliers. It's put you right back with capital spending for the factories that build the equipment to supply the companies to procure the raw materials. It's a vicious loop of employment. Those 4 workers get a job at one of the companies in the supply chain.
    Feb 6, 2010. 05:50 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Weak New Home Sales Report: Short The Bounce In The Homebuilder Stocks [View article]
    How you doing on those shorts for 22.5 DHI calls? DHI is at 23.88 as of Thursday.
    You got suckered.
    May 29, 2014. 09:29 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sliding Back into the Great Recession [View article]
    The data and the quoted information for the Philly survey is 2 years old, when the recession was first starting.

    You are showing the Philly survey from January 2008 and are linking the January 2008 PDF as January 2010.

    The January 2010 shows an increase in new orders and unfilled orders.

    www.phil.frb.org/resea...

    The introduction is below.
    ----------------------
    The region’s manufacturing sector continues
    to show improvement, according to firms polled
    for this month’s Business Outlook Survey. Indexes
    for general activity, new orders, and shipments
    all remained positive this month, although each
    fell back somewhat from their revised readings
    in December. Also indicative of improvement,
    for the second consecutive month, the percentage
    of firms reporting increases in employment was
    higher than the percentage reporting declines.
    Overall, expectations improved in January, and
    firms remain generally optimistic about growth
    over the next six months.
    Jan 24, 2010. 10:32 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Romney's VP Choice: Good For Gold This Fall? [View article]
    When he ignores repeal efforts for Romneycare and the individual mandate in his own state, he hasn't changed. He will replace Obama's individual mandate with his own. Ryan is a figurehead, as Palin was for McCain. It's putting lipstick on a pig.
    Aug 12, 2012. 02:03 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Case-Shiller Home Prices Go Up... And Down... [View article]
    There's another factor that is missed. A greater percentage of the sales market is now made up of foreclosures than ever.

    Newer foreclosures have been on prime loans on higher priced properties. These houses are selling for much more than the subprime foreclosures sold in 2008 and 2009. Rising prices would not be a sign of recovery. When the massive number of option arms get recast from now through 2012, it will bring even more inventory of higher priced homes to the market.
    Mar 30, 2010. 08:32 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ECRI: Double-Dip Worries 'Unfounded' [View article]
    How do they spin a chart that's pointing down in the most recent measurements instead of going up?

    The ECRI chart clearly shows declining growth from a peak of about 28% down to 13%.

    It looks like a double dip to me and will be even worse when the housing tax credit expires.
    Mar 19, 2010. 11:54 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mortgage Debt as a Percentage of Consumer Credit: Welcome to Hell [View article]
    You are 2 years too late on the housing bubble.
    Mar 15, 2010. 07:45 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. GDP Up 5.7%, Fastest Rate Since 2003 [View article]
    Foreclosures are at a record high. There is a large shadow inventory. Housing turned south in 2007 and hasn't turned around at all.
    Jan 31, 2010. 08:10 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Texas Natural Gas Mystery ... Solved [View article]
    Great catch, Paulo. I always wondered about the discrepancy.
    Jun 15, 2012. 07:59 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Be Fooled By 5 Automakers' May Sales [View article]
    "Almost every major automaker in the U.S. had a very good May. Toyota (TM) sales were up by an astounding 86% and Honda's (HMC) sales improved by 48%."

    T-dot made a great point. Toyota and Honda are just returning to pre-Tsunami levels. It's unlikely the sales will drop below the near-zero levels of last year's Tsunami season. There was looser lending standards, last year also. You can't sell what you what you don't have.
    Jun 10, 2012. 11:24 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The September Retail Sales Gain Is A Fallacy [View article]
    Using the unadjusted month after the "Back to School" shopping season ended is similar to using the unadjusted month after Christmas.

    It is manipulative and false, because there is always a drop in retail sales after the 2nd busiest shopping season of the year.
    Oct 14, 2011. 05:55 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Washington Post Fails to Understand How Currency Values Affect Trade [View article]
    It's not that simple. A 20% rise in Yuan does not mean every consumer good would rise 20%. Other countries like Vietnam would boost exports to the USA, but the cost of manufacturing in other countries would not be 20% more expensive.

    A 20% rise in the Yuan vs the US dollar and the Yuan staying the same against the Euro would hurt German exports and boost US exports.
    Sep 19, 2010. 09:51 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Double-Dip in Housing Will Drag Down Economy [View article]
    By calling a double-dip recession, you are saying the Great Recession ended and there was a period of economic expansion and housing boom.

    A 450k instead of 900k in new unemployment claims for the week does not equal economic growth.

    Foreclosures have never ended, since the recession began.
    Mar 25, 2010. 09:47 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Normalized Employment: The Real Employment Story [View article]
    Are the graphs normalized for retired , disabled or people over 60?
    Mar 4, 2010. 07:03 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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