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angstrom01

angstrom01
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  • SolarCity Is Not A Wise Investment At This Stage Of The Solar Game [View article]
    Lyndon Rive: "...But at a 98% growth rate you’re always investing into the future."

    You don't get massive growth without building a base. That money spent now is setting the stage for entrenched growth.
    May 21 12:08 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Money Is On Elon Musk [View article]
    Fantasy? Here all along I was under the impression pretending our finite energy sources were infinite was a fantasy. I'm glad that's been cleared up.

    SpaceX is probably the biggest fantasy at the moment and it clearly needs the success of both Tesla and SolarCity. Both will drive down the costs of energy storage while increasing energy density. Both are a critical infrastructure component needed for any serious mission beyond LEO.
    Mar 16 04:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Shift In The Fueling Paradigm Is Coming, Driven By Tesla Motors [View article]
    Hipster investing. I invested when it was $29 just after just after the supercharger announcement and equity raise when bears lurked freely and bulls were mocked upon sight.
    Mar 2 02:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Rent Seeker, Posing As Visionary [View article]
    A government agency successfully outsourcing low earth orbit and geostationary deliveries to a private company for less than any alternative. That's some crazy subsidization right there… /s
    Feb 16 03:44 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SolarCity: The Most Egregiously Overvalued Stock In The Nasdaq? [View article]
    I would be curious to see what role, if any, the energy storage pilot program played in those numbers. I'm willing to bet when all is said and done the stated values are impacted by the energy storage model as that would have a higher valuation than just the solar panels. I don't have visibility, but I know going against SCTY's reiterated expectation for Q4 2013 profitability and ongoing quarterly profitability from there could be a painful position to take. It was stated on the IPO, and Q1, Q2, Q3 statements.
    Jan 29 05:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • SolarCity: Pegged For Another Strong Year [View article]
    I look for it to spread like wildfire through the business sector, particularly with the DemandLogic helping curb energy bills. Things that tend to create a competitive advantage in the cost chain usually do and this is one where the benefits are not that difficult to explain which reduces the impedance even more. It's not like a business trying to understand the Internet and B2C or B2B.

    Consumers will jump on the DemandLogic bandwagon when they start seeing the combined savings of distributed energy generation and EVs.
    Jan 15 12:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sorry Goldman Sachs, I Think Your Call On SolarCity Is Wrong [View article]
    I should probably also point out that a 25-30 year time span is in line with the lifetime of a typical roof. It would be a nice future if the shingles could eventually serve as the PV installation. Some companies are already creating shingles like this that blend with the roof (some even look like blue curved clay tiles). The efficiency isn't as high, but you can see how it makes sense to basically make the roof pay for itself. An old roof is usually something that would otherwise be an expensive hassle and may degrade the resale value of the home if it needs replacing. Suddenly it becomes a simple matter of renewing the contract and letting SCTY (or some competitor by that time) replace the existing material. Let them worry about the insurance, maintenance, and efficiency.
    Jan 8 12:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sorry Goldman Sachs, I Think Your Call On SolarCity Is Wrong [View article]
    In the long term model I would say it seems almost wasteful to not use all that roof space for something. Rooftop advertising to airplane passengers, sky divers, and hot air balloons seems like a long shot. Expecting people to pay for the systems up front slows adoption. SCTY is onto something with the lease model.

    The system doesn't really start to shine until the battery storage buffers are part of the default installation. Being able to top off those batteries so people can plug in their electric cars is what will keep the electric grid from triggering brownouts. It has benefits to the market as well since most customers have little choice who they buy their electricity from.
    Jan 8 10:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • SolarCity makes Goldman Conviction Buy list; +7% premarket [View news story]
    What mythical company are you investing in that hasn't received or taken advantage of some tax incentive or subsidy? I really want to see this unicorn in the rough. Strip away the subsidies to oil and the wars needed to keep it the price stable and we'll see a different story.
    Jan 7 11:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sorry Goldman Sachs, I Think Your Call On SolarCity Is Wrong [View article]
    One drawback I see for the non-residential is the need to acquire real estate for the installation. Repurposing residential/commercial rooftops avoids the need to secure large tracts of land.

    Putting a solar PV on the roof and combining it with a battery backup allows each individual site to level their demand. And since it is onsite they can avoid the 7% transmission loss that would occur between the utility scale solar PV sites and the delivery point.

    Assuming customers will prefer to foot the bill for installation, maintenance, and insurance up front causes an adoption rate disadvantage. It's tantamount to starting a mobile provider and expecting everyone to buy an unlocked cellphone, at cost, up front. And that's only $500. Yet the vast majority opt for the contract subsidized phone. Leave the plan early and you have to pay the difference. Stay in the plan and you get the benefit of the hardware and the service.

    Luckily, (or unluckily depending on the outcome) the fossil fuel plateau is happening simultaneously. Fly over North Dakota and you'll get a good glimpse of what is possible when oil stays about $100/barrel.
    Jan 7 05:05 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sorry Goldman Sachs, I Think Your Call On SolarCity Is Wrong [View article]
    I was considering SPWR as well. Some advantages I see in terms of SCTY is the access to residential real estate and energy storage. Energy storage is going to become an impedance to doing large scale deployments. Residential rooftop real estate is basically just re-purposing what is already readily available. I read a UCLA study recently which purported to find that there was enough solar real estate on the roofs of Los Angeles to meet half the energy needs of California.

    Combine that with the distributed DemandLogic grid being built by SCTY and TSLA and there is a real potential to retain even more value from every megawatt deployed. At some point it becomes necessary as the unpredictable fluctuations in power from both solar and wind need to be buffered to avoid taking out the electric grid. In the end this is what will be replacing gasoline consumption so it's critical to add this to the mix sooner rather than later.

    I think it's wise to buy both SPWR and SCTY. Alternate whenever one seems cheaper than the other.
    Jan 7 02:19 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Superchargers As A Profit Center For Tesla [View article]
    I tend to agree, it's a great way to dog food better charging tech and energy storage. The energy storage helps with the growing solar city customer base and faster charging to the 5 minute goal will push EV adoption.
    Dec 31 11:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • For The Record: Tesla Will Likely Need 5 To 10 Billion USD For Its Gen III Car And Battery Plant [View instapost]
    It probably depends on the consumer. The larger pack would get a reasonable charge faster than a 300 mi battery. If you have a battery with 400-500 range you could reach a reasonable charge faster with less need to fully charge. Alternatively, one could reduce the weight of the battery and improve the car's 0-60 performance while maintaining the same 300 mile max range. For packs that new it makes sense some people would be satisfied to take the reconditioned battery at a lower cost and put in their new Model S.

    The main thing is still going back to the $/kW and driving the cost down. Tesla is already ~$200/kWh by best estimates. I would expect the Model E to be ~$100/kWh taking advantage of economies of scale and residual pack value. If they manage to do this roughly every 4 years you could be looking at sub $100 by ~2020

    There's a long running thread on the teslamotorsclub tracking this that does it more justice:
    http://bit.ly/11XcWZs

    2023 would be a good timing considering that is when the peak oil plateau is expected to no longer be propped up by shale oil fracking. My assumption is that for economic stability it's better to accelerate a solution before that time frame as there is likely a window of uncertainty. It would be better to accelerate EV adoption and prolong the plateau so developments can be made for the $50 Trillion in global machinery that needs to be transitioned to alternative fuels over 20+ years.
    Nov 24 07:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • For The Record: Tesla Will Likely Need 5 To 10 Billion USD For Its Gen III Car And Battery Plant [View instapost]
    Goshn has the right vision and has done a good job positioning Nissan for the transition. Having a solution for what to do with their batteries and the longevity of their batteries are probably the biggest problems in their plan.

    To small for home installations?
    SCTY has a goal of 1 million customers and 6GW of capacity by July 2018. Their storage solution in partnership with Tesla will be introduced in 2016. With a current base of 100,000 customers they should be heading toward 500K customers by 2016. The timing of SCTY's IPO and growth timeline is not a coincidence. IMO both have goals aligned with a specific time frame in mind.

    Tesla Model E will likely be introduced in 2016 with the announcement of 200mi range and (x)kW battery. Model S/X owners get an option to upgrade at that time to a 400mi (2x)kW battery.

    Now some (hopefully) pessimistic math. By end of 2015 Tesla will have cumulatively produced ~100K Model S/X units with 60kW or greater packs. Assuming the packs are reconditioned at 70% efficiency and 60% of owners decide to upgrade/trade their packs which would be recycled/reconditioned into 8kW home storage solutions:
    100,000 potential upgrades*60kW packs*0.7 residual*0.6 actual upgrades/8kW storage packs=315,000 energy home storage packs.

    Tesla owners pull into a battery swap station. Get their upgrade. Drive away. Tesla does the recycling. Maybe the TSLA customer is already a SCTY customer. They could opt for the upgraded solar storage solution for another discount by allowing SCTY to do arbitrage with the smart grid. At this point the benefits of leasing become clear over the benefits of owning the solar generation system outright.

    The goal isn't so much to have the batteries on parity with solar installations as it is to have another use for the batteries after the customer upgrades. This reduces the cost of the upgrade and any buyer's remorse the customer has for the car is reduced since an upgrade route is available. The reconditioned battery packs would be a supplement to the storage needed for the solar storage solution.
    Nov 24 04:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SolarCity - Trouble Or Opportunity? [View article]
    As more people start buying units to supplement EV purchases it can at least double. (understatement of the first half of the 21st century)
    Nov 23 11:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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