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  • Tesla Motors (TSLA) Elon Reeve Musk on Q2 2015 Results - Earnings Call Transcript  [View article]
    These aren't not the numbers you're looking for.
    Aug 6, 2015. 09:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • SolarCity's Growth Sustainability Issue  [View article]
    Most likely all are wrong. It won't explode until the last minute just as TSLA didn't explode until the last minute. Earnings releases are an exercise in obscurity. Made up metrics and other nonsense.
    Feb 4, 2015. 08:24 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SolarCity New Loan Product: Parasite Morphs DNA  [View article]
    The part where the customer gets the full 30% is particularly enticing. That is quite a catalyst.
    Oct 17, 2014. 05:27 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Elon Musk Unveils Secret 2015 Margin Target  [View article]
    The only shareholders he gives a damn about are the longs and it's the way it should be.
    Sep 18, 2014. 11:23 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SolarCity Is Not A Wise Investment At This Stage Of The Solar Game  [View article]
    Lyndon Rive: "...But at a 98% growth rate you’re always investing into the future."

    You don't get massive growth without building a base. That money spent now is setting the stage for entrenched growth.
    May 21, 2014. 12:08 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Money Is On Elon Musk  [View article]
    Fantasy? Here all along I was under the impression pretending our finite energy sources were infinite was a fantasy. I'm glad that's been cleared up.

    SpaceX is probably the biggest fantasy at the moment and it clearly needs the success of both Tesla and SolarCity. Both will drive down the costs of energy storage while increasing energy density. Both are a critical infrastructure component needed for any serious mission beyond LEO.
    Mar 16, 2014. 04:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Shift In The Fueling Paradigm Is Coming, Driven By Tesla Motors  [View article]
    Hipster investing. I invested when it was $29 just after just after the supercharger announcement and equity raise when bears lurked freely and bulls were mocked upon sight.
    Mar 2, 2014. 02:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Rent Seeker, Posing As Visionary  [View article]
    A government agency successfully outsourcing low earth orbit and geostationary deliveries to a private company for less than any alternative. That's some crazy subsidization right there… /s
    Feb 16, 2014. 03:44 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SolarCity: The Most Egregiously Overvalued Stock In The Nasdaq?  [View article]
    I would be curious to see what role, if any, the energy storage pilot program played in those numbers. I'm willing to bet when all is said and done the stated values are impacted by the energy storage model as that would have a higher valuation than just the solar panels. I don't have visibility, but I know going against SCTY's reiterated expectation for Q4 2013 profitability and ongoing quarterly profitability from there could be a painful position to take. It was stated on the IPO, and Q1, Q2, Q3 statements.
    Jan 29, 2014. 05:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • SolarCity: Pegged For Another Strong Year  [View article]
    I look for it to spread like wildfire through the business sector, particularly with the DemandLogic helping curb energy bills. Things that tend to create a competitive advantage in the cost chain usually do and this is one where the benefits are not that difficult to explain which reduces the impedance even more. It's not like a business trying to understand the Internet and B2C or B2B.

    Consumers will jump on the DemandLogic bandwagon when they start seeing the combined savings of distributed energy generation and EVs.
    Jan 15, 2014. 12:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sorry Goldman Sachs, I Think Your Call On SolarCity Is Wrong  [View article]
    I should probably also point out that a 25-30 year time span is in line with the lifetime of a typical roof. It would be a nice future if the shingles could eventually serve as the PV installation. Some companies are already creating shingles like this that blend with the roof (some even look like blue curved clay tiles). The efficiency isn't as high, but you can see how it makes sense to basically make the roof pay for itself. An old roof is usually something that would otherwise be an expensive hassle and may degrade the resale value of the home if it needs replacing. Suddenly it becomes a simple matter of renewing the contract and letting SCTY (or some competitor by that time) replace the existing material. Let them worry about the insurance, maintenance, and efficiency.
    Jan 8, 2014. 12:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sorry Goldman Sachs, I Think Your Call On SolarCity Is Wrong  [View article]
    In the long term model I would say it seems almost wasteful to not use all that roof space for something. Rooftop advertising to airplane passengers, sky divers, and hot air balloons seems like a long shot. Expecting people to pay for the systems up front slows adoption. SCTY is onto something with the lease model.

    The system doesn't really start to shine until the battery storage buffers are part of the default installation. Being able to top off those batteries so people can plug in their electric cars is what will keep the electric grid from triggering brownouts. It has benefits to the market as well since most customers have little choice who they buy their electricity from.
    Jan 8, 2014. 10:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • SolarCity makes Goldman Conviction Buy list; +7% premarket  [View news story]
    What mythical company are you investing in that hasn't received or taken advantage of some tax incentive or subsidy? I really want to see this unicorn in the rough. Strip away the subsidies to oil and the wars needed to keep it the price stable and we'll see a different story.
    Jan 7, 2014. 11:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sorry Goldman Sachs, I Think Your Call On SolarCity Is Wrong  [View article]
    One drawback I see for the non-residential is the need to acquire real estate for the installation. Repurposing residential/commercial rooftops avoids the need to secure large tracts of land.

    Putting a solar PV on the roof and combining it with a battery backup allows each individual site to level their demand. And since it is onsite they can avoid the 7% transmission loss that would occur between the utility scale solar PV sites and the delivery point.

    Assuming customers will prefer to foot the bill for installation, maintenance, and insurance up front causes an adoption rate disadvantage. It's tantamount to starting a mobile provider and expecting everyone to buy an unlocked cellphone, at cost, up front. And that's only $500. Yet the vast majority opt for the contract subsidized phone. Leave the plan early and you have to pay the difference. Stay in the plan and you get the benefit of the hardware and the service.

    Luckily, (or unluckily depending on the outcome) the fossil fuel plateau is happening simultaneously. Fly over North Dakota and you'll get a good glimpse of what is possible when oil stays about $100/barrel.
    Jan 7, 2014. 05:05 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sorry Goldman Sachs, I Think Your Call On SolarCity Is Wrong  [View article]
    I was considering SPWR as well. Some advantages I see in terms of SCTY is the access to residential real estate and energy storage. Energy storage is going to become an impedance to doing large scale deployments. Residential rooftop real estate is basically just re-purposing what is already readily available. I read a UCLA study recently which purported to find that there was enough solar real estate on the roofs of Los Angeles to meet half the energy needs of California.

    Combine that with the distributed DemandLogic grid being built by SCTY and TSLA and there is a real potential to retain even more value from every megawatt deployed. At some point it becomes necessary as the unpredictable fluctuations in power from both solar and wind need to be buffered to avoid taking out the electric grid. In the end this is what will be replacing gasoline consumption so it's critical to add this to the mix sooner rather than later.

    I think it's wise to buy both SPWR and SCTY. Alternate whenever one seems cheaper than the other.
    Jan 7, 2014. 02:19 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment