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Joel F

Joel F
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  • GoPro: I Like It, But Wait Until You See $20 [View article]
    My 16 year old niece and 17 year old nephew are still using their GoPro nearly two years after they got it. Attaching it to a lacrosse ball, golf cart, anything that moves and provides entertainment value. It's certainly something that has entertainment value for the family.
    Nov 3, 2015. 06:55 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Covisint Is A Cash Rich, Debt Free, Overlooked Spinoff [View article]
    The full story is they have been losing a lot of money since their IPO. I found this spin-off interesting because of the lack of debt but was turned off by their operating performance. You're essentially betting on an acquisition for the IP until they show an ability to generate positive FCF or net income consistently.
    Sep 27, 2015. 11:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • For Long-Term Growth, Look No Further Than Gilead Sciences [View article]
    You are right to trust your gut to be hesitant and not rely on other people's opinions to make investment decisions. If you are young, I would recommend spending more time educating on investment strategy and decision making before jumping in. You have plenty of time. No need to rush into anything or feel like you're missing out on something.
    Sep 25, 2015. 09:13 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Comverse's Acision Deal Is Solid, But Expectations May Be Too High [View article]
    Several points in Xura's favor (aside from the horrible Pharma-like name):

    1. According to the latest earnings, already at $396M combined and $65M EBITDA combined. So essentially they need to realize cost savings / change revenue mix to hit their now $110 EBITDA target. Their CFO, Jacky Wu, reiterated this guidance on the earnings call. How they precisely get there is not something I'm overly concerned about because:

    2. Strong [and quiet] activist involvement with Becker Drapkin and Cove Street Capital. Becker Drapkin has Xura at 25% of their portfolio so clearly a major bet by them. Also hold a board seat. Cove Street Capital increased their stake by 117% in the previous quarter. Both hold stakes worth around $30M, 7% stake.

    3. Insider buying in the 19-21 range over June-July including the CEO / CFO.

    So you have some qualitative indicators that support belief in their ability to hit that target. You can try and time it or you could look at it like what downside is there left if they are already running at $65M EBITDA and have a growth business.

    The excess cash is only a bonus.
    Sep 9, 2015. 03:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CafePress's Depressed Stock Price Presents Opportunity [View article]
    Turnaround on track. Tempted to buy a Trump mug as a memento.
    Aug 14, 2015. 09:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Should You Invest In HollyFrontier At Current Levels? [View article]
    In the last earnings call Michael Jennings commented that he believes their strategic plan will increase the value of the company by 50% and that they will get much more specific on how in the next analyst day.

    You have to weigh how much you trust management statements about company value. This management team has shown excellent execution and is about as opposite of a cheerleader as you can get. Acceleration stock buybacks when the price was way down is a fantastic example. Incredibly, most companies don't.

    I would tend to give his comment some credence. I valued HFC somewhere in the mid-60s when I became a shareholder in the mid-40s back in 2013 and still do. Apparently management agrees. Easy to sit back and DRIP until the market recognizes it.
    Aug 9, 2015. 12:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should You Invest In HollyFrontier At Current Levels? [View article]
    TTM EPS is 2.87, not 1.88
    Aug 8, 2015. 12:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • HollyFrontier (HFC) Michael C. Jennings on Q2 2015 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    "Michael C. Jennings - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer
    Yeah Blake, I'll address that just right off. We feel like we have a very visible plan that stands to increase value of the company by 50% or so, and with that in mind, our shares are undervalued, in our view. It's not opportunistic in terms of buying, yet it's opportunistic in terms of putting our capital to work more efficiently, particularly in view of what we think the company will be worth as we execute this plan."

    Color me interested to see what they have to say at the next analyst day.
    Aug 6, 2015. 08:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Emerson Radio: A Value Trap [View article]
    If the float allowed it you could buy $43M in cash for $31M independent of any other assets. It will be interesting to see if another special dividend is on the way.
    Jul 15, 2015. 03:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • RLJ Entertainment Is An Attractive Speculative Stock With Embedded Call Options If Bought At The Right Price [View article]
    They note in a press release that they will be late due to the capital restructuring but intend to file.

    Incentive-wise preferred stock has a conversion price of $1.00 and the warrants $1.50 placed with Wolverine Asset Management and Sudbury Capital Fund who also added board of director members.

    It looks like with some improved financial management, via above additions, and reduced interest expense they could become free cash flow positive fairly quickly.
    May 27, 2015. 05:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why ITT Educational Services' Equity Is Worthless [View article]
    I can't wait to see Harvard out of business then. There are two separate issues that need to be addressed here:

    1. Allegations of fraud
    2. General frustration of having to pay for college and not wanting to pay what contractually was agreed to for college

    #1 is what the SEC is tackling. It remains to be seen to what depth the charges affect ITT but they also have theoretically been generating a lot of cash since their last financial report so who knows what the ultimate outcome is since A. it hasn't been decided and B. no one knows how much ITT has in the bank at this point since they haven't filed anything. It reminds me of Ocwen. I think you could argue that all of the bad news is priced in right now.
    May 23, 2015. 11:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Investors Beware: Could The Current Global Bond Sell-Off Be A Start Of A Bear Market? [View article]
    Cash. Take a vacation.
    May 22, 2015. 11:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • JPMorgan agrees to buy $45B in MSRs from Ocwen [View news story]
    So if they sold $12B MSR @$80M last quarter $45B would equate to around $320M proceeds?
    May 14, 2015. 06:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Amazon The Canary In The Market's Coal Mine? [View article]
    At some point you should see regression to the mean. That point may just be past your lifetime, or Bezos'.

    I love products too, but find the pricing of stock proof that the next bigger idiot theory can last way longer than you would ever think or try to bet against.
    May 14, 2015. 09:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Investors Beware: Could The Current Global Bond Sell-Off Be A Start Of A Bear Market? [View article]
    The Fed can influence, not control the markets same for the rest of market-based governments. Because of the 24/7 media cycle, everyone thinks Yellen et al are completely in control. They are not. They can influence things for better or for worse, usually worse, but if the market says yields are going up, yields are going to go up.

    I for one hope rates rise some and flush some of these terrible businesses artificially living past their expiration on cheap debt down the toilet.
    May 14, 2015. 09:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment