Seeking Alpha

caedmon

caedmon
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View caedmon's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Why You Should NOT Invest In Dividend-Paying Mutual Funds [View instapost]
    There are some extremely well-researched and well-written articles on here explaining/showing that 99% of the time we will not do as well as an index fund, or even a random stock picker. Mutual funds don't either, but they do somewhat better.
    Apr 15 01:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • North American Palladium Ltd: A Financial Death Spiral In Process [View article]
    I really don't understand why you think BAM won't lose money. If PAL files for bankruptcy before the loans are paid off, doesn't BAM lose what it wasn't paid? I really don't see PAL lasting that long in this scenario. Do you really think BAM will be able to sell off PAL's assets at a price that will recoup their losses (what they would have made had the debt been repaid)? Or perhaps you simply mean they won't lose more than they loaned out (I'm still dubious there). I would think it would be extremely more preferable to them to have the debt completely repaid, than simply make a small profit on the very difficult situation of selling off PAL. I defiitely see it as preferable to BAM to lower the interest enough for PAL to survive, and then extend their hand (or is it a claw) to them again for another round of debt.
    Mar 7 05:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Short Natural Gas [View article]
    Actually, as many studies and articles have shown, in the long run inverse and leveraged ETFs will generally lose out (go to $0 or thereabouts) due to their resetting mechanisms. In the short term they offer marginally better odds (automatic principal loss vs. potential rewards) than casinos, which often have payout ratios of 90-98%. Not trying to be negative, just wanting to show the realities here.
    Mar 7 11:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Yields For S&P 500 Will Rise [View article]
    I'm shocked at the percentage of commenters bruising what I consider the best article I've read on here in over a month. Even this high class forum of information has its "haters" apparently and cannot be divulged from the rest of the internet.
    Mar 3 06:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Emerging Market Currency Devaluation Will Mark End Of Tapering [View article]
    Assets frequently move for reasons other than commonly quoted chart stats; I feel I cannot say *that* frequently enough. But, the poster you are replying to meant that the *citizens* (not the governments) of those countries would be better served if they were holding gold rather than their own countries dollars. (I'm about 98% sure that's what he was saying and I agree)
    Feb 18 01:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Emerging Market Currency Devaluation Will Mark End Of Tapering [View article]
    Don't you love that with fiat currency you can just store it in a few bytes of computer data?
    Feb 18 12:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Emerging Market Currency Devaluation Will Mark End Of Tapering [View article]
    I feel like you're looking at a chart and ignoring the fundamentals of the changing situation; reality doesn't look at charts for confirmation of what it's going to do.
    Feb 18 12:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Warning: If Your Financial Adviser Diversifies To Reduce Risk, You're In Trouble! [View article]
    "Keep in mind that with diversification, you are not limiting risk, you are exchanging it. You’re determining how much of your equity will be exposed to each kind of risk in existence, not how much risk you will be exposed to in total (that question is generally settled by what particular risks you put into your portfolio)."

    If we're talking about each individual investment, this is true; if we're talking about overall portfolio risk (and basically most if not all of us are), this isn't true, statistically. Non-correlating asset classes reduce portfolio risk. Statistically and historically with no end in sight. 'Nuff said. You can call it "exchanging" all you want, I'm going to use it for what it actually, numbers-wise does: Reduces risk and volatility. I don't have the illusion that any asset class is without risk, and that's okay. Sometimes people get too caught up in the cause and effect of a particular shovel's use, whereas I mostly just want the shovel to do its job if such issues are non-impactful (the main "impact" taken here is that no asset class is without some kind of risk, which is a good lesson to learn).
    Feb 13 08:23 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Forever Elusive Alpha [View article]
    The bulk of backtest material on this site suggests strongly that "value" does offer alpha (better performance) as does the similar "Dogs of the Dow" concept so I'm not sure where you get that blanket statement which seems to be wrong to me on both counts; maybe you mean something different than I think you do. Personally I just like the concept that I'm getting more of the company's earnings (and dividends) for my dollar and knowing that valuations tend to revert to the mean ("core" valuations).
    Feb 13 06:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why SunOpta's Board Should Vote To Sell The Organic Food Company [View article]
    Well, interest is just getting started again in alternative energy, and many investors were familiar with (some of them burned by) their original direction and may not have caught up or considered them a "danger stock" since then if they haven't been paying attention.
    Feb 11 10:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yields Of 5.3%-23.2%: How Investors Can Turn Gold Into Even More Gold [View article]
    Exactly. Even if we insulate ourselves here from the idea of things "being money," if the rest of the world believes it (actually, it's self-evident to them for whatever reason) and someday things aren't going well and the rest of the world asks us what we can give/trade it that is of value and all we can hand it are some scraps of paper, I don't think that will go over well. Just saying.
    Feb 7 02:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yields Of 5.3%-23.2%: How Investors Can Turn Gold Into Even More Gold [View article]
    Just because there was a sucker in 1980 who couldn't read the Hyde Brothers debacle as anything other than something to wait through, has nothing to do with this discussion IMHO.
    Feb 7 02:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yields Of 5.3%-23.2%: How Investors Can Turn Gold Into Even More Gold [View article]
    It's a commodity. Commodities rise via inflation. Vis-a-vis, it is a hedge (rises with) inflation. Just because it doesn't 100% correlate with the overall commodity chart doesn't mean it's not a hedge -- show me a single commodity or simple instrument (ie, something other than an ETN that simply follow the chart itself) that does. I dare you. ;) If you can disprove this argument, I'll eat my hat. It's laying on the table upstairs with a bottle of ketchup.
    Feb 7 02:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yields Of 5.3%-23.2%: How Investors Can Turn Gold Into Even More Gold [View article]
    1900 to present has been a tale of rising boats all over the place, I think you can call a variety of things "correlated" but to think you can call out "disposable income" as the "cause" rather than a coexisting (correlated) factor -- which is what you're trying to say -- smacks of massive hubris. Also, gold IS a good hedge against inflation, as are stocks, simply by the numbers, I don't think anyone particularly cares what the the ultimate "cause" or most correlated other stat is, we simply want it for what it does. I don't care if shovels are shaped the way they are because of the limitations of moldmaking in the steelmaking industry, I want the shovel because I have some dirt to move. :)

    P.S. I have seen a similarly massively overwritten thesis stating that dividend yields are most correlated with, and therefore caused by, inflation (including gold and other metals). What's the ultimate cause? Which is causing which? Isn't it simply optimism and "irrational exuberance?" Velocity of money and asset values/money available increases and people get excited when things are going well or even decently, there's no reason to think we have to drill it down to one factor -- that's not the way the world works folks, sorry.
    Feb 7 02:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Barclays MLP ETN Pays Nearly 6% Yield [View article]
    The mew! I need to go watch Supertroopers again... (apologies for the joke, nice article) Is the ETN+ in these new products supposed to mean something other than a standard ETN, or just jargon/advertising? And, that's a shockingly high expense ratio for something that A) tracks an index, and B) doesn't even guarantee your principal. I'm not sure why ETNs are offered rather than ETFs, to be honest.
    Feb 7 01:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
135 Comments
87 Likes